Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Context-dependent uncertainty-aware parking choices of autonomous car owners","authors":"Yan Hu ,&nbsp;Ying Zhao ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Li ,&nbsp;Tao Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As autonomous vehicle (AV) technology advances, effectively managing parking behavior has become increasingly critical for urban parking systems, traffic congestion, and transportation sustainability. This study aims to investigate AV owners’ parking choices under various activity-travel contexts, uncertainty conditions, and parking attributes. A stated choice experiment was designed, and a mixed logit cumulative prospect theoretical model was developed to analyze parking decisions under uncertain waiting times underlying different parking modes. The findings indicate that individuals exhibit risk preferences in response to waiting time uncertainty. When waiting times are shorter than expected, they show risk aversion with diminishing sensitivity to further reductions. Conversely, longer-than-expected waits lead to risk-seeking behavior, heightened sensitivity, and biases in probability perception. These risk preferences significantly influence individuals' parking choices, particularly in prolonged, uncertain waiting scenarios. Additionally, travel context factors (e.g., purpose, activity duration, and idle time) and parking attributes (e.g., cost, revenue, and social influence) significantly influence AV owners' parking decisions, along with socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., age, education, and car ownership). The findings provide valuable insights for urban planners, policymakers, and car-sharing platforms, suggesting flexible pricing strategies and the promotion of shared mobility services to enhance parking efficiency and support sustainable transportation development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103797"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-speed rail's dynamic impacts on urban industrial structure upgrading and its mechanisms","authors":"Xiaolong Li ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Fu ,&nbsp;Kun Wang ,&nbsp;Zongfa Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103806","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103806","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-speed rail (HSR) is a costly transportation infrastructure, and its investment can be better justified when it leads to long-term urban economic development. However, there is a lack of empirical investigations that quantify HSR's dynamic economic benefits, particularly considering the lagging effects, as well as the changing effects resulting from the continuous expansion of the HSR network. This study represents one of the initial attempts to quantify the dynamic impacts of HSR on the upgrading of urban industrial structures. It distinguishes the sources of these impacts by considering the lagging effects for individual cities and the staggered expansion of the HSR network. In addition, the industrial structure upgrading is comprehensively evaluated from the servitization of the industrial structure and the improvement of industrial labor productivity. In which, the industrial structure servitization represents the upgrading of industrial structure towards tertiary industry. Using data from 278 Chinese cities over a span of 19 years, we developed and employed an improved synthetic control method (SCM) and staggered SCM for our empirical investigations. The results indicate that HSR generally facilitates the upgrading of a city's industrial structure. However, the effects of HSR on industrial structure servitization tend to fade quickly, while the impacts on improving industrial labor productivity are more persistent. Further regional heterogeneity analyses suggest the effects of HSR on industrial servitization is more enduring in core cities, while the labor productivity-improving impacts of HSR remain consistent across different cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103806"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green, safe, and Cost-Effective? An integrated structural analysis of public acceptance of urban air mobility","authors":"Xiangyu Li,&nbsp;Anrong Dang,&nbsp;Maini Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103795","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103795","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has attracted significant attention as a potential strategy to address traffic congestion and sustainability challenges in global cities. Yet, the viability of UAM ultimately hinges on public acceptance, which in turn depends upon key perceptions of safety, trust, cost, and environmental impact. This study develops and tests a comprehensive model of UAM acceptance by integrating the constructs of perceived safety (PS), perceived usefulness (PU), price sensitivity (PSen), environmental awareness (EA), trust (TR), and behavioral intention (BI). Drawing upon technology acceptance models, risk perception theory, and environmental psychology, we analyze survey responses (N = 427) through structural equation modeling (SEM) to elucidate the drivers, barriers, and moderating factors influencing the potential uptake of UAM services. Results highlight that perceived safety positively influences trust, which mediates the effect of safety on behavioral intention. Perceived usefulness emerges as the strongest direct predictor of intention, while high price sensitivity curtails adoption. Environmental awareness exerts a modest positive impact on acceptance and moderates the adverse effect of high price sensitivity. These findings underscore the importance of transparent safety standards, strategic fare designs, and the communication of environmental benefits for promoting UAM adoption. The study contributes to research in UAM adoption by revealing how multiple dimensions—technical, psychological, economic, and ecological—interact to shape public acceptance of disruptive mobility innovations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103795"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating green routes: How does air connectivity influence environmental information disclosure quality?","authors":"Jianda Wang ,&nbsp;Xiangru Wu ,&nbsp;Senmiao Yang ,&nbsp;Kun Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103805","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103805","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Corporations' environmental information disclosure quality (EIDQ) is critical for green transformation, and aviation may facilitate this by reducing th spatiotemporal distance of information exchange. However, the causal relationship between air connectivity and EIDQ remains underexplored. This study examines the impact of city-level air connectivity on corporate EIDQ for China's A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2023. Findings indicate that enhanced air connectivity significantly improves both monetary and non-monetary EIDQ by boosting executive green awareness and attracting green investments. The positive effect is further reinforced by soft constraints (negative authoritative media coverage) and hard constraints (government environmental regulations). Moreover, the positive effect of air connectivity on EIDQ becomes insignificant in remote areas, whereas full-service airlines (FSAs) exert a stronger influence on EIDQ than low-cost carriers (LCCs). This study bridges the gap between aviation services and green corporate practices, offering valuable insights to improve the EIDQ.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103805"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Operating financial sustainability in the German car industry: a new approach","authors":"Mihai Mutascu ,&nbsp;Ana-Cristina Nicolescu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103791","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103791","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the operating financial sustainability of the German car industry, focusing on ten large listed firms in the motor vehicle manufacturing sector. The empirical part is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) panel models, over 2010–2023.</div><div>A key finding confirms the operating financial sustainability of the German car industry, evidenced by the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between operating revenues and costs. They mutually influence each other. Revenues exhibit higher responsiveness to economic shocks, adapting swiftly through pricing, scaling or demand-driven strategies. Costs are more rigid due to contractual and structural constraints. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic marked a turning point, reinforcing the need for revenue adaptability and operational efficiency.</div><div>These insights offer a comprehensive understanding of the cost-revenue dynamics that underpin the long-term financial sustainability of the German automotive sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103791"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"“Should I stay or should I go?” a dual-theory behavioral analysis of electric vehicle adoption and retention","authors":"Elena Higueras-Castillo ,&nbsp;Josep Rialp-Criado ,&nbsp;Kathrin-Monika Buhmann ,&nbsp;Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103792","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103792","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving sustainable transport systems requires actionable insights into the behavioral dynamics underpinning both the initial adoption and sustained use of electric vehicles (EVs). This research addresses this challenge through two independent empirical studies integrating the Value-Belief-Norm theory and the Expectation Confirmation Theory within a segmentation-based approach. Study 1 (n = 265) examines the psychological determinants of EV adoption, identifying the ascription of responsibility as the most influential factor and revealing five distinct consumer profiles: Engaged Changemakers, Hesitant Traditionalists, Idealistic Altruists, Pragmatic Individualists, and Detached Skeptics. Study 2 (n = 434) explores continuance intention among current EV users, revealing that satisfaction and confirmation of expectations are critical predictors. Six segments emerge: Satisfied Pragmatists, Highly Satisfied Altruists, Highly Satisfied Realists, Disappointed but Responsible, Reluctant Skeptics, and Self-Interested Dropouts. These findings underscore a clear behavioral distinction: while ethical and normative concerns dominate the adoption stage, experiential satisfaction and alignment between expectations and performance are central to retention. By combining two established behavioral theories with data-driven segmentation, the research offers differentiated, evidence-based policy and marketing recommendations, emphasizing value-driven communication to boost adoption and user experience improvements to secure retention. This dual framework advances understanding of EV consumer behavior and provides practical guidance for accelerating the transition to low-emission mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103792"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of air transportation on economic growth: Novel findings from the CS-ARDL model","authors":"Pınar Gümüş Akar","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103788","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103788","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the effect of air transportation in terms of its two outputs, passenger and cargo transportation, on economic growth in developing and developed economies. For this purpose, the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lags estimator (CS-ARDL) was used with the number of air passengers, cargo volume, and GDP data from 1980 to 2021 for each country group to investigate the relationship between variables in the long and short run. In addition, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group Estimators (CCE) were applied for robustness. Also, the causality relationship between air passenger and economic growth and air freight and economic growth was investigated by Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) panel causality methodology. According to the findings of all estimators used, it was determined that air passenger and air cargo volumes positively affected GDP in each group in both the short and long run. Panel causality test (Emirmahmutoglu and Kose, 2011) shows that unidirectional causality runs from air passenger to economic growth in developed and developing countries and unidirectional causality from economic growth to air cargo in developed countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103788"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144989248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An outlook on ride-sourcing price changes: Implications for future transit agency-TNC partnerships","authors":"Lamis Ashour ,&nbsp;Qing Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ride-sourcing trip prices charged by transportation network companies (TNCs) have increased significantly compared to before the pandemic, causing concerns about the effectiveness of existing and planned transit agency-TNC partnerships. This paper explores three scenarios of future TNC price changes: (1) price trend extension using forecasting models, (2) price increase in response to local policy changes, and (3) TNC/taxi price convergence due to increased competition. We then investigate the impact of TNC price change on the prospect of transit agency-TNC partnerships, using a case study in the Seattle region. For the first scenario, we employ two time-series models, namely ARIMA and PROPHET, to forecast price changes within the next three years (Oct 2022–Oct 2025) using publicly available Chicago TNC trip data. The results show that TNC's daily average price would reach $3.23 per mile, increasing by 40 % from 2019 average rates. For the second scenario, we track significant policies that directly impacted TNC prices in Seattle and incorporate reported price increases. The resulting estimations indicate that TNC prices would increase by an extra 25 % in response to changes in the minimum wage law. For the third scenario, we use publicly available taxi trip data of the city of Chicago and forecast future taxi prices by estimating time-series models comparable to those for TNC prices. The analysis suggests that due to increased competition, TNC and taxi prices are converging and that the average TNC fare per mile could add another 50 % to the forecasted price if TNC and taxi prices become similar in the upcoming three years. These price changes are shown to have a considerable negative impact on the expected cost-effectiveness of transit agency-TNC partnerships. Although such partnerships could still provide many benefits, transportation planners and policymakers should carefully examine the implications of TNC price increases resulting from changing market and policy environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103790"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Acceptance of crowd-sourced delivery tasks using diverse transportation mode options","authors":"Qiang Qi ,&nbsp;Soora Rasouli ,&nbsp;Tao Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increase in E-commerce has led to substantial demand for parcel delivery across the world that courier companies have to deploy more dedicated delivery vehicles to satisfy the demand. The emission and congestion caused by these vehicles, especially in dense urban areas, exacerbate in the future if not dealt with timely. Crowd-Sourced Delivery (CSD) can be seen as a means to offset part of the delivery demand dealt with by commercial couriers. Within this system, the ordinary travelers are proposed to deliver a parcel during their pre-planned trips. In order to minimize the environmental footprint of parcel deliveries, it would be ideal for CSD tasks to be accepted while using active and public transportation. (Empirical) studies, so far, have mainly focused on one particular transportation mode when offering CSD tasks. This approach prevents identifying the relative potential of modes in the full mobility system<em>.</em> The aim of this study is therefore to broaden our understanding regarding potential of different modes in facilitating CSD adoption. For the operational feasibility of the service, we proposed to integrate CSD within Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) framework. In the context of CSD-MaaS integration, it is expected that potential crowd-shippers adopting different transportation modes exhibit varying preferences regarding CSD tasks they are being allocated due to distinct features associated with various modes. To understand the willingness of travelers to accept a CSD task across different transportation modes, and features of CSD tasks suitable for users of different modes, in this study a stated choice experiment was designed in which the respondents were allowed to simultaneously choose transportation modes and evaluate parcel delivery tasks. An error component mixed logit model was employed to assess the effects of various transportation and parcel related factors on travelers’ decisions while accounting for the correlation between transportation modes with similar features. The results indicate that the willingness to accept a parcel delivery task varies significantly across transportation modes. Car-based modes, particularly private cars, were the most preferred, while sustainable modes such as private (E-)bikes and public transport demonstrated notable potential. Conversely, emerging shared mobility modes were less favored as carriers in CSD. Additionally, delivery task characteristics, travel contexts, and socio-demographic factors significantly influenced the decision to accept a delivery task, with varying effects across transportation modes. These findings provide critical insights for transportation planners and transport operators, contributing to the development of more sustainable and efficient last-mile delivery solutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103796"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subsidy policy design and optimal pricing decisions of high-speed rail express","authors":"Zongsheng Sun ,&nbsp;Bin Shuai ,&nbsp;Minhao Xu ,&nbsp;Feng Xue","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-speed rail express (HSRE) plays an important role in promoting industrial development and reducing carbon emissions. This study addresses the issues of the government subsidies and pricing decisions of HSRE operators under decentralized (DE) and centralized (CE) decision-making frameworks. A two-stage analysis framework is proposed: The first stage addresses the issue of government subsidies amount and starting subsidy distances, while the second stage focuses on determining the optimal pricing decisions of HSRE operators after government subsidies are withdrawn. The proposed model is validated by the HSRE service between Chengdu and Kunming. The results indicate that the subsidy amount per ton km in the initial phase is positively correlated with the transportation distance of HSRE. The longer the transportation distance, the larger the subsidy amount should be. Meanwhile, the results reveal that while centralized decision-making consistently enhances overall profits, its impact on HSRE and RE services exhibits significant distance-dependent heterogeneity, mutual profit improvement for both transport modes only materializes under medium-distance scenarios. These findings provide new sights for operational optimization and subsidy pricing decisions of HSRE.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103793"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}