Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Integrating spatio-temporal analysis for assessing the effectiveness of POLARIS in Arctic shipping traffic","authors":"Yaqing Shu ,&nbsp;Wenyang Xu ,&nbsp;Hailong Cui ,&nbsp;Jinli Xiao ,&nbsp;Lan Song ,&nbsp;Huanhuan Li ,&nbsp;Zaili Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The annual reduction in Arctic sea ice extent has driven a steady increase in shipping activity, which has raised requirements for the safety and management of ships in the Arctic. To address these challenges, the International Maritime Organization published the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS), which introduces a sea ice risk quantification model and proposes operational restrictions for ships under different ice conditions. In this study, Automatic Identification System and sea ice data from 2018 to 2022 in the Arctic were spatio-temporally correlated to assess the effectiveness of the POLARIS in guiding ship navigation. The findings reveal that ship trajectories and speeds are significantly influenced by sea ice conditions, and that non-compliance with the POLARIS is evident among ice-class ships. In high-risk operating waters, the non-compliance rate of PC4, PC6, and PC7 ice-class ships is nearly 70%, and the median exceedance magnitude is approximately 3.25 kn. By analyzing non-compliance events and ships entering areas requiring special operations, high-incidence areas of non-compliance for ice-class ships were found, with the highest-incidence areas occurring in the Kara Strait and in the area northwest of Svalbard. Temporally, most non-compliance events were concentrated between January and June, and again in December. These results indicate that the POLARIS may require revision to better reflect and support real-world navigational behavior in Arctic waters and to account for ship-specific risk factors. This study provides a critical theoretical policy-making solution to improving the POLARIS, thereby enhancing ship safety and the effectiveness of regulations in ice-covered waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104096"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147385990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transit demand response to fuel pricing vs. supply disruption policies: Evidence from Peshawar's dual-fuel context","authors":"Muhammad Habib Khan ,&nbsp;Yi Zhang ,&nbsp;Tao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104084","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104084","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliance on private cars as the default mode of urban mobility causes congestion, high fuel consumption, as well as degradation of the environment and public health. Green (public transit) and active transport are fundamental to sustainable mobility. To encourage public transit use, fuel policies are widely implemented. Despite the availability of data, key knowledge gaps exist: past studies have treated fuel pricing policies and fuel supply disruption policies as identical. Moreover, no integrated analysis exists examining how these distinct policies reshape public transit demand—particularly in developing cities where traffic mix is dominated by gasoline-powered motorcycles that remain cost-competitive with public transit for short trips, and private vehicles predominantly operate on dual-fuel systems. Peshawar, Pakistan, presents a unique context for exploring this gap. Nearly half of private vehicles in the country operate on dual-fuel systems that use both gasoline and compressed natural gas (CNG). This study addresses the gap by analyzing high-frequency hourly ridership data from Peshawar's Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system during two distinct fuel policy interventions: (Event A: Fuel Pricing Policy) an unprecedented 66% gasoline price surge (GPH) (May–July 2022), and (Event B: Fuel Disruption Policy) a one-month government-imposed CNG supply shutdown (CSD) (January 2023). Using Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) hour-by-hour Causal Impact analysis, we find that GPH had no significant impact, whereas the subsequent CSD produced stronger and more temporally consistent effects across different periods of the day. The impact of CSD in the early morning was insignificant; the morning peak showed an increase of ∼23%. The impact remained persistent during the midday off-peak with an average increase of ∼17% and intensified to ∼23% in the evening peak and ∼32% in the late evening. These findings demonstrate how fuel supply policies significantly influence public transport usage. By quantifying ridership elasticity, this study offers actionable insights for policymakers to integrate energy resilience into transit planning, optimize service delivery during fuel crises, and apply a replicable framework for cities navigating energy transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104084"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the built environment's impact on ridesplitting behavior","authors":"Shuo Li ,&nbsp;Junfang Tian ,&nbsp;Yingying Yan ,&nbsp;Geng Li ,&nbsp;Yuxing Lv ,&nbsp;Hang Luo ,&nbsp;Shoufeng Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ridesplitting is a ridesourcing service where multiple passengers with similar routes share a single trip. Understanding the factors influencing ridesplitting behavior is vital for sustainable urban transport planning. However, most studies analyze ridesplitting behavior at aggregated spatial units (e.g., census tracts), assume uniform trip attributes within an area and overlook order-level heterogeneity, which can lead to biased results. Thus, based on a real-world DiDi Chuxing dataset, this study employs a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model to examine the nonlinear effects of trip attributes and built environment (BE) factors on ridesplitting behavior, measured by the ridesplitting probability (RP) at the individual/order level. BE factors are measured within a 1-km buffer around trip origins and destinations, and the analysis is conducted separately for weekdays and weekends. The GBDT results reveal that BE variables contribute 61% of the model's predictive performance, with origin-side factors having a slightly stronger impact than those at the destination. Additionally, this study also identifies nonlinear relationships and threshold effects between variables and RP. It is observed that RP exhibits pronounced temporal heterogeneity throughout the day. The order density, trip distance, distance from the trip origin to the city center, and land use mix at the trip origin are impactful only within specific ranges. Subways compete more with ridesplitting than complements it, and subway accessibility exerts a greater influence than bus. The findings of this study provide key insights and actionable recommendations for improving urban transport efficiency and promoting sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104077"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The linkages between high-speed rail network structure and inter-city human mobility patterns: A dual-network approach","authors":"Junmei Cheng ,&nbsp;Zhenhua Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inter-city human mobility, referring to human movement among cities, provides critical insights into urban structures. While the development of transportation infrastructure like High-Speed Rail (HSR) has been acknowledged for facilitating human movement, studies specifically examining the network-level interactions between HSR and inter-city human mobility patterns remain scarce. Utilizing HSR transport density and Weibo mobility index data, this study develops a dual-network approach to analyze the structures of both HSR network and inter-city human mobility network, as well as their interconnections. The network analysis identified multiple urban network structure in China: monocentric, twin-city, and polycentric. Network regression analysis further highlights a structural similarity between the HSR network and inter-city human mobility, although HSR network development lags behind the existing human mobility patterns. The research has important implications for urban planning, indicating that HSR acts as a vital catalyst for urban transformation and inter-city interaction, especially in less developed areas. It calls for a strategic refinement in HSR network expansion, particularly in connecting underrepresented areas and optimizing the network to meet the actual mobility demands.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104066"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146175243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling competitive demand dynamics in multi-airport regions using time-series econometrics","authors":"Rashedul Islam Seum ,&nbsp;Khaled Abdelghany ,&nbsp;Ahmed Abdelghany","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the interaction among co-located airports is critical for accurate demand forecasting and air service planning. In regions with overlapping catchment areas, airline decisions at one airport can affect demand at the other. Nonetheless, few studies have quantified these interactions or their temporal dynamics. This study presents an applied empirical analysis using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX) framework to quantify cross-airport demand dynamics in multi-airport regions. First, we develop SARIMAX-based demand models for 16 U.S. metropolitan areas to evaluate how changes in seat capacity and average airfare at one airport are associated with demand shifts at both the focal and its co-airport. Second, we conduct a detailed market-level case study of the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area, examining how demand in shared origin markets from Atlanta (ATL), Seattle (SEA), and Phoenix (PHX) is distributed between Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). Enhanced service levels at one airport tend to coincide with rising demand at that airport and reduced demand at its co-airport. These insights provide an evidence base for transport policymakers, airline managers, and airport authorities to coordinate slot allocation, manage congestion, and plan infrastructure investments across multi-airport systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104060"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146175242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Event-driven personalized travel path planning with integrated en-route POI recommendations","authors":"Wenbo Huang ,&nbsp;Shushan Chai ,&nbsp;Yanyan Chen ,&nbsp;Yang Xie ,&nbsp;Mengqiu Cao ,&nbsp;Wen-Long Shang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Participants in large-scale sports events in cold environments demand efficient and personalized travel route planning to ensure they can take part in the activities on time, safely and comfortably. While existing travel planning studies primarily address basic origin-destination requirements, they often overlook the impact of cold environments on pedestrians’ psychology and physiology and the route recommendations for personalized travel. To bridge this gap, a personalized travel path planning with integrated en-route point of interest (POI) recommendations (PTPP-POI) framework in the cold events is proposed. It takes into account the impact of cold environments on the psychology and physiology of pedestrians, and dynamically recommends personalized travel routes to meet the travel needs of pedestrians in cold events. Taking the Beijing Winter Olympics as an example, and simulation results indicate that implementing PTPP-POI increases the probability of path matching—from 77.4% to 81.6% during ingress and from 47.0% to 52.6% during egress—along with significant increases in serviced POI counts. The PTPP-POI offers a user-friendly travel guidance framework that not only enhances the probability of path matching and POI utilization but also substantially improves the overall experience of participants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104052"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146175239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling car owners’ stated preferences for electric micro-mobility ownership: Evidence from a mixed logit approach","authors":"Yikang Wu,&nbsp;Mehmet Yildirimoglu,&nbsp;Zuduo Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electric micro-mobility (EMM) ownership, particularly of e-bikes and e-scooters, is widely promoted as a sustainable solution for reducing car dependence and supporting urban decarbonisation. Yet, little is known about the drivers of EMM ownership or the effectiveness of purchase incentives—especially among car owners who have the highest mode-shift potential. To address this gap, we conducted a stated preference (SP) survey with 1478 car owners from Brisbane, Australia, yielding 5912 choice observations. Respondents indicated their willingness to purchase an EMM device under various incentive policies, with particular focus on two incentive types: a direct rebate and a car replacement rebate, the latter offering a higher rebate rate for those willing to trade in their private vehicles. A mixed logit model was employed to estimate the effects of incentive attributes while accounting for unobserved preference heterogeneity. The results highlight the sensitivity of ownership choices to individual incentive attributes. Simulation of hundreds of alternative incentive structures further uncovers systematic patterns for designing more cost-effective schemes to increase EMM adoption under fiscal constraints. Building on these insights, both statistically optimal and practically feasible incentive design guidelines are proposed for policymakers. Overall, the study underscores the importance of carefully tailoring incentive structures and presents illustrative examples that optimise cost-effectiveness by balancing government expenditure with projected ownership gains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104063"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Toward low-carbon multimodal freight networks: Insights from uncertain carbon prices and transfer times","authors":"Zi-Ang Zhang ,&nbsp;Chuanzhong Yin ,&nbsp;Xuezong Tao ,&nbsp;Daofeng Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104093","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104093","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multimodal transport offers a key strategy for freight decarbonization. To address the dual uncertainties of carbon prices and transfer times in multimodal freight networks, this study constructs a multi-objective fuzzy stochastic programming model. It incorporates conditional value-at-risk to quantify carbon-price risk under triangular fuzzy distributions and employs chance-constrained programming to address uncertain transfer times. An NSGA-III combined with the TOPSIS is developed to solve the model. A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China validates the methodology's applicability. The results indicate that, under a low-carbon orientation, transport enterprises will prioritize rail-water multimodal transport and rail-only transport schemes to improve the economic-environmental performance. Sensitivity analysis reveals a critical carbon price threshold that triggers a modal shift from multimodal to rail-only transport, reducing both carbon emissions and transportation time. Furthermore, deteriorating transfer conditions diminish carbon pricing effectiveness, highlighting the priority of infrastructure upgrades. Policy and managerial insights emphasize three priorities: (<em>i</em>) constructing a dynamic risk-based decision-making framework for carbon prices, (<em>ii</em>) improving transfer efficiency through coordinated infrastructure development, and (<em>iii</em>) leveraging technological innovations to build an integrated optimization strategy framework. This study offers robust decision-support insights for the design of adaptive and low-carbon freight networks under conditions of evolving market dynamics and operational uncertainties.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104093"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147385989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding bike-sharing usage and built environment influences across age groups: A spatial machine learning approach","authors":"Ziqi Yang ,&nbsp;Yisong Zhu ,&nbsp;Xinghua Li ,&nbsp;Yuntao Guo ,&nbsp;Zhenghan Zhang ,&nbsp;Lu Teng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dockless bike-sharing systems (DBSs) have become an integral component of sustainable urban transportation, offering flexible, affordable, and low-carbon mobility options. Yet demographic groups use these systems differently, especially older adults whose mobility needs diverge from those of younger users. While understanding such differences is vital for inclusive transport design, little is known about spatiotemporal usage disparities or how built environments shape them. This study addresses this gap by examining both the spatiotemporal usage patterns of older adults (aged 60+) versus younger users (18–59) and the nonlinear, spatially varying impacts of built environment factors on these differences through comparative modeling. Using a dataset of over 8 million DBS trips from 700,000 unique users in Harbin, China, we develop geographically weighted boosting (GWBoost) model that integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with geographical weighting regression (GWR) model to simultaneously capture nonlinearity and spatial heterogeneity. The results indicate that older adults' DBS trips are more geographically concentrated in Harbin's commercial and historic core and exhibit more temporally uniform patterns, compared to younger adults. Modeling results further reveal that distance to the city center and distance to metro stations consistently rank as the most influential predictors of DBS usage for both age groups, with built environment effects exhibiting pronounced nonlinear, threshold, and spatially heterogeneous patterns. It shows that limited public service provision and fine-grained street connectivity are associated with higher DBS adoption among older adults in central urban areas, whereas contrasting effects are observed in peripheral zones. As China enters an aging society, these findings underscore the importance of adapting DBS infrastructure in ways that support age-friendly and inclusive planning across diverse urban contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104079"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enhancing public transport competitiveness in metropolitan areas: Empirical evidence and policy implications from Beijing's commuting","authors":"Mingzhi Wang ,&nbsp;Chunyi Yuan ,&nbsp;Chunjiao Dong ,&nbsp;Jingdong Jin ,&nbsp;Jing Wang ,&nbsp;Junyue Wang ,&nbsp;Chunfu Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104095","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104095","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid metropolitan integration has intensified commuting within metropolitan areas, yet persistent car dependence undermines low-carbon mobility goals. This study investigates the determinants of travel mode choice in the Beijing metropolitan area, with a particular focus on the underexplored role of service quality. Drawing on China's first large-scale metropolitan travel survey (n = 3069) and employing an interpretable Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, we examine how socioeconomic attributes, built environment, and service quality influence commuting choices. Result stability is further assessed via bootstrap resampling. The results show that service quality is pivotal for public transport uptake, with pronounced nonlinear and threshold effects associated with bus detour ratio, transfer distance, walking distance to stops, and fares. Car ownership, especially possession of a Beijing license plate, remains the strongest single determinant of commuting mode choice. The nonlinear analysis identifies critical breakpoints: for example, walking distance to bus stops exceeding 700 m or detour ratios above 1.4 markedly reduce the probability of choosing public transport. Interaction effects indicate that improving stop accessibility and promoting amenity clustering around workplaces can strengthen the competitiveness of public transport in metropolitan commuting. These findings offer actionable policy implications. Enhancing public transport competitiveness necessitates reducing detours and transfer distances, improving access to stops, and maintaining affordable fare levels, potentially through targeted subsidies. At the spatial level, implementing Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) strategies can reinforce the synergies between concentrated land use and efficient transit services. Overall, the study provides empirical evidence to support metropolitan public transport policy design and offers methodological insights that can inform the calibration of discrete choice models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 104095"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}