Transport Policy最新文献_第4页

Modeling the diffusion of Electric Vehicles by a robust explanation of the Bass diffusion model: An application to Pan-European Policy Analysis 通过对Bass扩散模型的稳健解释来模拟电动汽车的扩散：在泛欧政策分析中的应用

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103783

Maria Elena Bruni , Stefano Musso , Guido Perboli

{"title":"Modeling the diffusion of Electric Vehicles by a robust explanation of the Bass diffusion model: An application to Pan-European Policy Analysis","authors":"Maria Elena Bruni , Stefano Musso , Guido Perboli","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103783","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103783","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction of the diffusion of new transportation technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) is critical for defining policy, infrastructure planning, and anticipating impacts on energy, emissions, and mobility systems. The Bass diffusion model is widely used to forecast technology adoption, but its parameters traditionally do not explicitly account for market-specific factors driving diffusion. This research proposes a generalized Bass model incorporating the effects of policy, economic, technological, and social variables derived from expert surveys. However, limited survey sample sizes introduce uncertainty that must be addressed. We develop a novel approach using extreme value theory to robustly estimate the Bass parameters while accounting for errors from imperfect survey data. Our approach links forecasting models with market factors from multiple data sources while rigorously handling uncertainties, supporting the design, evaluation, and impact assessment of transportation policies. The methodology is applied to forecast the adoption of regional electric vehicles throughout Europe in different policy scenarios related to factors such as charging infrastructure, purchase incentives, battery costs, and environmental awareness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103783"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144920225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The dynamics of HSR preference in the context of short-haul flight bans 短途航班禁令背景下的高铁偏好动态

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103773

Adrián Nerja , Mariola Sánchez

引用次数: 0

Commercial space launches and maritime activities: Issues and challenges 商业太空发射和海上活动：问题和挑战

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103787

Chunyan Yu, Janet K. Tinoco

{"title":"Commercial space launches and maritime activities: Issues and challenges","authors":"Chunyan Yu, Janet K. Tinoco","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103787","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103787","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While extensive research has explored the economic and operational impacts on airlines and aircraft operators, there is a notable gap regarding the effects of space activities on maritime operators and the repercussions of non-compliance with maritime safety protocols for commercial space operators. This study examines the intricate challenges arising from the dynamic relationship between commercial space activities and maritime operations. The effectiveness of safety zones is questioned, given instances of non-compliance leading to scrubbed or postponed launches, incurring substantial costs for space operators. The escalating frequency of disruptions caused by commercial space activities and potential conflicts of interest between space and vessel operators underscore the need for regulatory and legal exploration. The economic repercussions of disruptions, such as launch scrubs and postponements, and the associated costs for space operators are examined, and the fairness of disrupting regular operations of maritime entities to facilitate profit-making private space companies is questioned. The potential liability of violators for scrub and postponement costs, jurisdictional challenges faced by maritime safety and security agencies such as United States Coast Guard (USCG), and the need for regulatory or legal mechanisms to enforce safety zones and oversee liability issues are critical aspects explored in this research. This paper intends to prompt dialogue on achieving a delicate balance between maritime and space domains, ensuring the continued success and safety of commercial space ventures, and to expand the complexity and nuances of space traffic management to include impacted maritime operations. Policy and regulation recommendations are proposed to enhance further discussion and identify solutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103787"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144926127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID & telecommuting-induced changes in individual activity and travel patterns: Evidence from the Puget Sound Region COVID和远程办公引起的个人活动和旅行模式的变化：来自普吉特海湾地区的证据

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103772

Grace Jia , Kaitlyn Ng , Ekin Ugurel , Brian Lee , Ram Pendyala , Cynthia Chen

{"title":"COVID & telecommuting-induced changes in individual activity and travel patterns: Evidence from the Puget Sound Region","authors":"Grace Jia , Kaitlyn Ng , Ekin Ugurel , Brian Lee , Ram Pendyala , Cynthia Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One enduring effect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the popularity of telecommuting: To this day, 23% of the salaried workers continue to work from home, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using three waves of the household travel survey data from 2017, 2019 and 2021 in the Puget Sound Region, WA, this study examines how telecommuting, which also means the removal of the workplace as an anchor point from one’s daily activity and travel pattern, affects the generation and rescheduling of maintenance and discretionary trips that are previously conducted around home and workplaces. The associated consequences including changes in modes of transportation used and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are also investigated. We found that though telecommuting resulted in reduced number of trips and VMT in general, there is a significant increase in the number of maintenance and discretionary trips. Additionally, telecommuters exhibited less complex trip chaining behavior, characterized by simpler tours with shorter trips, fewer stops, and lower mode diversity compared to non-telecommuters. Spatially, telecommuters conducted maintenance and discretionary trips closer to home; temporally, and the departure times of these trips are more spread out with emerging peaks such as late morning, and mid-day. These results have significant policy and modeling implications relating to transportation service provision, local economy, and travel demand forecasting models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103772"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modelling residential relocation behaviour combining passive revealed preference data and stated preference survey data 结合被动显示偏好数据和陈述偏好调查数据对住宅搬迁行为进行建模

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103789

Yu Wang , Thomas O. Hancock , Yacan Wang , Charisma Choudhury

{"title":"Modelling residential relocation behaviour combining passive revealed preference data and stated preference survey data","authors":"Yu Wang , Thomas O. Hancock , Yacan Wang , Charisma Choudhury","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103789","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103789","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding how various factors shape residential relocation is crucial for effective infrastructure planning and policy. Yet, existing revealed preference (RP) datasets often lack essential demographic or dwelling details, while stated preference (SP) surveys are prone to hypothetical bias and behavioural incongruence. To fill in this gap, this study presents a residential relocation choice model that combines residential location data derived from passively generated public transport smart cards of 82,720,872 users and SP data from 971 respondents (8739 observations) in Beijing, China. Both types of data were generated or collected in the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to higher-than-usual residential relocations in Beijing. The integrated approach, which accounts for the scale difference between the two datasets, reveals a strong preference for city-centre locations. But higher infection risks increase the likelihood of moving away from crowded areas, whereas flexible work-from-home policies lower the inclination to relocate to the centre. These findings quantify how different pandemic-related factors alter traditional relocation drivers. The results can guide policymakers in designing more resilient housing and transport policies, especially under future disruptions like pandemics. Moreover, the data-fusion framework offers a replicable strategy for researchers and planners seeking to capture both real-world behaviours and hypothetical scenarios in residential location studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103789"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145020152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Identifying critical factors affecting passenger satisfaction in inland water transit integrating Best Worst Method and Ordered Probit Model 利用最优最差法和有序概率模型识别影响内河客运满意度的关键因素

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103785

B Anish Kini , Darshana Othayoth , T.V. Rameesha

{"title":"Identifying critical factors affecting passenger satisfaction in inland water transit integrating Best Worst Method and Ordered Probit Model","authors":"B Anish Kini , Darshana Othayoth , T.V. Rameesha","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103785","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103785","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Passenger satisfaction is paramount in realizing the required ridership in any public transit mode, more so in water transit. This study provides a methodological framework that employs the Best Worst Method (BWM) – an extensively used MCDM technique based on pairwise comparisons for weighting various criteria - to determine the global importance weights of influencing factors and marginal effects from Ordered Probit Model (OPM) to determine the critical influencing factors that need immediate attention. An extensive passenger perception survey was carried out, and a total of 408 valid responses were obtained, providing perceptions regarding importance-satisfaction and BWM-based importance weights for influencing factors. A novel importance satisfaction (IS) index – integrating BWM weighted importance with the satisfaction rating (<span><math><mrow><msub><mi>I</mi><mrow><mi>B</mi><mi>W</mi><mi>M</mi></mrow></msub><mi>S</mi></mrow></math></span>) – is proposed and compared with the conventional IS rating. The comparative analysis has shown that the new IS index brings to the fore critical influencing factors much better than the conventional IS rating. The novel IS index provides a global relationship that enables comparison between water transit services or routes, given that the influencing factors are similar. Using marginal effects from OPM and the importance weights from BWM, the identification of critical influencing factors – frequency, waiting time at the terminal, jetty platform protection, service reliability, service information at terminal and cleanliness - of an Inland Water Transport service has been demonstrated. These critical factors assist policymakers, practitioners, and operators in taking up interventions for improving passenger satisfaction, which is likely to positively influence patronage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103785"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144907892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Nudging sustainable mobility: an empirical analysis based on the WeWard app 推动可持续交通：基于WeWard应用程序的实证分析

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103786

Nabil Kabbadj, Hadrien Bajolle, Nicolas Louvet

引用次数: 0

Assessment of passengers’ safety and risk attitudes on integrated urban air mobility and airline services 综合城市空中交通和航空公司服务的乘客安全和风险态度评估

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103784

Ying Zhao , Yan Hu , Tao Feng , Anming Zhang

{"title":"Assessment of passengers’ safety and risk attitudes on integrated urban air mobility and airline services","authors":"Ying Zhao , Yan Hu , Tao Feng , Anming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study introduces the concept of Air Mobility as a Service (AMaaS) by integrating Urban Air Taxi (UAT) services into the Mobility as a Service (MaaS) framework, aiming to enabling seamless multimodal transportation. The objective is to investigate commuter preferences for adopting multimodal UAT services. A stated choice experiment was designed to capture joint choice of UAT-based alternatives and subscription schemes, alongside attitudinal measures assessing the influence of safety and risk perceptions on adoption behavior. Using data collected in Beijing, a hybrid choice model with latent variables was estimated. Results show that subscription-based schemes, particularly sustainable options like Bike + UAT and PT + UAT, are generally preferred over pay-as-you-go alternatives. Government support and discounts significantly increase adoption likelihood. Safety perceptions also play a critical role. Specifically, perceived UAT safety encourages adoption, while safety consciousness, and perceived UAT risks hinder the use of these services. Individuals with higher safety consciousness are less likely to use pay-as-you-go options, and those perceiving UAT as risky are less inclined to use subscription schemes, particularly Taxi + UAT. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and UAT service providers in designing effective policies and marketing strategies to promote UAT adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103784"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144902698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The structural evolution of the Chinese aviation network during and after the pandemic: A machine learning-based approach 大流行期间和之后中国航空网络的结构演变：基于机器学习的方法

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103774

Ziyu Cui , Hanjiang Dong , Kun Wang , Jiehong Qiu , Xiaowen Fu

{"title":"The structural evolution of the Chinese aviation network during and after the pandemic: A machine learning-based approach","authors":"Ziyu Cui , Hanjiang Dong , Kun Wang , Jiehong Qiu , Xiaowen Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103774","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103774","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To identify the evolution pattern of the Chinese aviation network before, during, and after the pandemic, we develop a machine learning-based framework to analyze the network's development dynamics. By integrating link prediction algorithms into this framework, we quantify the contributions of 11 topological features driving structural changes. Utilizing aviation passenger flow data from China from 2014 to 2024, we identify important topological features that reveal the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the air network evolution. The empirical findings yield the following insights: (1) Targeted investments in core hub airports should be prioritized, given their critical role in maintaining network connectivity and facilitating rapid recovery during disruptions. (2) Airlines should strategically optimize shared connectivity and resource allocation to maintain critical routes and network resilience during times of resource constraints caused by the pandemic. (3) To control possible cascading effects caused by disruptions on international routes, secondary hubs and regional routes can be promoted. This would stabilize domestic connectivity and enhance the resilience of the aviation network. (4) Post-pandemic, the diversity-driven topological features become more prominent, suggesting airlines' plan of enhancing network robustness. Policymakers should promote the development of secondary hubs and new routes, thereby improving the aviation network's resilience and reducing excessive concentration to core hubs. These findings provide practical insights for balancing centralization, regional development, and network diversification, contributing to a resilient and adaptive aviation network capable of withstanding future disruptions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103774"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Problematic international aviation safety data?: ICAO's online USOAP CMA compliance database and ISO 9001:2015 – Quality management systems 有问题的国际航空安全数据？：国际民航组织在线USOAP CMA合规数据库和ISO 9001:2015 -质量管理体系

IF 6.3 2区工程技术

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103781

Kym Bills, Leesa Costello, Marcus Cattani

引用次数: 0