Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Poor reliability of public charging stations can impede the growth of the electric vehicle market","authors":"Rubina Singh ,&nbsp;Casey Quinn ,&nbsp;Don MacKenzie","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does the reliability of public charging infrastructure affect electric vehicle (EV) adoption? Substantial public and private investments are expanding EV charging networks, but concerns are growing about the poor reliability of existing chargers and its potential impacts on EV adoption. Using data from a nationwide survey, we employ a choice model to quantify the effects of perceived charging reliability on Americans’ intentions to purchase new or used EVs. By randomly assigning participants to receive information characterizing public charging as either very reliable or very unreliable, we show a causal effect of reliability perceptions on EV purchase intentions. We find that differences in perceived reliability are equivalent to changing price by 32 % of purchasing budget or changing range by 366 miles, underscoring the importance of reliable public charging.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 695-705"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Rapid shipping for cross-border E-Commerce: A Sino-Japanese case study on express liner optimization under China's 9610 import mode","authors":"Zhongzhen Yang ,&nbsp;Ying Zheng ,&nbsp;Jiannan Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of cross-border e-commerce becoming the fastest growing mode of foreign trade and demand increasing for rapid cross-border maritime transportation, based on the opportunity cost of bilateral cross-border e-commerce commodities, and taking into account the complementary nature of the inventory cost and transportation cost in the process of door-to-door transportation, we propose the cross-border e-commerce express liner service. For China's 9610 import mode, with the objective of minimizing the total generalized transportation cost of China's cross-border e-commerce import cargoes, an optimization model is built to implement the decision-making of the ship size, voyage speed and departure frequency for the express liner shipping. Numerical analysis is implemented as an example of Sino-Japanese cross-border e-commerce, where Chinese imported cargoes are divided into four categories according to their values, the modal splits of the three transportation modes are calculated separately, and the service metrics of the express liner shipping is determined. This study not only lays the foundation for building a transportation system for Sino-Japanese cross-border e-commerce, but also provide a reference for the innovation of transportation modes for other bilateral cross-border e-commerce.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 462-475"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144534179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Insights from the industry on whether ships can reach zero-emissions port-stays","authors":"Thalis P.V. Zis,&nbsp;Mihalis Golias","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concept of a zero-emissions port-stay is an ambitious goal for the maritime industry. Several promising technologies incur significant costs for the industry and the public sector. In this paper, we present the viewpoint of the industry on technologies that reduce the environmental footprint of vessel port-stay. We survey three stakeholder groups with an interest in low-emissions port-stays: port operators, shipping companies, and providers of technological solutions. A survey instrument was developed that considers the key challenges of reducing emissions during hoteling activities, when ships are at berth. The survey instrument also provided the industry with the opportunity to identify other solutions and key challenges not found in the academic literature. The main findings of this survey allow further comparisons between the challenges faced by each stakeholder. Results from this research highlight additional challenges that, to the authors’ best knowledge, have not been previously acknowledged in literature. The objective of this paper is to provide insight into the challenges of, and barriers to, the development of emissions reduction solutions at the port. We compare our findings to previous understandings of challenges and opportunities based on the academic and technical literature. We conclude with recommendations to improve the uptake of low-emissions technologies targeting vessel port-stays.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 579-594"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144580672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sharing, collaborating, and benchmarking to advance travel demand research: A demonstration of short-term ridership prediction","authors":"Juan D. Caicedo ,&nbsp;Carlos Guirado ,&nbsp;Marta C. González ,&nbsp;Joan L. Walker","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research foregrounds general practices in travel demand research, emphasizing the need to change our ways. A critical barrier preventing travel demand literature from effectively informing policy is the volume of publications without clear, consolidated benchmarks, making it difficult for researchers and policymakers to gather insights and use models to guide decision-making. By emphasizing reproducibility and open collaboration, we aim to enhance the reliability and policy relevance of travel demand research. We demonstrate this approach in the field of short-term ridership prediction. Drawing insights from over 300 studies, we develop an open-source codebase implementing five common models and propose a standardized benchmark dataset from Bogotá’s transit system, which we use to evaluate these models across stable and disruptive conditions. Our evaluation shows that online training significantly improves the prediction accuracy under demand fluctuations, with the multi-output, online-training LSTM model performing best across stable and disrupted conditions. However, even this model required approximately 1.5 months for error stabilization during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this open-source codebase is to lower the barrier for other researchers to replicate models and build upon findings. We encourage researchers to test their modeling approaches on this benchmarking platform using the proposed dataset or their own, challenge our analyses, and develop model specifications that can outperform those evaluated here. Further, collaborative research approaches must be expanded across travel demand modeling if we wish to impact policy and planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 531-541"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144572385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental concern and government incentives on perceived value and electric automobile adoption","authors":"Oğuzhan Acar,&nbsp;Çağatan Taşkın","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is important to understand consumer expectations to achieve the goals set for the transition to electric automobiles. The aim of the research is to determine the effect of perceived value and its antecedents on consumers' intention to adopt electric automobiles and to examine the role of environmental concern and government incentives in the effect of perceived value on adoption intention. In the research, data were collected from 776 people by survey method and analyzed through PLS-SEM structural equation modeling. As a result of the research, it was found that economic benefit, driving benefit, driving range, environmental benefit and social image have a positive effect on perceived value, perceived value has a positive effect on adoption intention, environmental concern doesn't have a moderating role in the effect of perceived value on adoption intention, but government incentives have a moderating role on the effect of perceived value on adoption intention.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 440-452"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144516971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Party politics in transport policy with a large language model","authors":"Hyunsoo Yun ,&nbsp;Eun Hak Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the significant influence of lawmakers' political ideologies on legislative decision-making, analyzing their impact on transportation-related policymaking is of critical importance. This study introduces a novel framework that integrates a large language model (LLM) with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to analyze transportation-related legislative proposals. Legislative bill data from South Korea's 21st National Assembly were used to identify key factors shaping transportation policymaking. These include political affiliations and sponsor characteristics. The LLM was employed to classify transportation-related bill proposals through a stepwise filtering process based on keywords, sentences, and contextual relevance. XAI techniques were then applied to examine the relationships between political party affiliation and associated attributes. The results revealed that the number and proportion of conservative and progressive sponsors, along with district size and electoral population, were critical determinants shaping legislative outcomes. These findings suggest that both parties contributed to bipartisan legislation through different forms of engagement, such as initiating or supporting proposals. This integrated approach offers a valuable tool for understanding legislative dynamics and guiding future policy development, with broader implications for infrastructure planning and governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 487-496"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144570884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does developing public transportation reduce motorcycle Usage? Evidence from Taiwan","authors":"Wen-Hsiu Huang ,&nbsp;Rong-Chang Jou","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employed the duration model incorporating the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the influence of the development of public transportation on motorcycle usage in Taiwan between 2014 and 2018, as the metropolitan areas had experienced a period of rapid development with diverse public transportation modes after the restructuring of Taiwan's six municipalities. It also investigated whether this development led to an increased willingness among motorcycle commuters to use public transportation. The results reveal that the development of public transportation reduced motorcycle usage time, especially for motorcyclists who were reliant on the metro system and those using motorcycles for business activities. Conversely, the development of public transportation did not reduce motorcycle usage for commuting. Furthermore, the effects of public transportation development on motorcycle commuters' attitudes toward different transportation options differed among various commuter groups. Motorcycle commuters depending on the metro system and with a daily motorcycle usage time of less than 30 min exhibited a greater inclination to begin using public transportation after public transit networks were improved. By contrast, those with a daily motorcycle usage time exceeding 60 min exhibited a decreased willingness. The primary deterrents for motorcycle commuters transitioning to public transportation were limited convenience and mobility. Thus, improving the convenience and accessibility of public transportation should be prioritized. Such improvements might reduce reluctance to transition from using motorcycles to using public transportation. Further integrating diverse modes of transportation and promoting green mobility should also be key considerations in city planning strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 389-407"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial–temporal evolution theory and influencing mechanisms of the express delivery network: A case on YTO express in China","authors":"Junru Li,&nbsp;Hongchang Li,&nbsp;Xiaojun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.034","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.034","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a typical network industry, the express delivery industry has become an essential component of economy and society today. However, due to insufficient theoretical foundations and a lack of data, research on the spatial–temporal evolution and influencing factors of express delivery networks remains relatively limited. This study adopts a social network theory framework to construct mechanisms of spatial–temporal evolution of express delivery networks. It identifies that express delivery networks tend to form a “core–periphery” structure, where development occurs first in economically advanced and geographically accessible regions, with regional core nodes serving as hubs that connect sub-networks. Using internal datasets from YTO Express for 2013 and 2017, we construct a directed weighted network to examine the spatial structure and evolution characteristics of China’s express delivery network. Additionally, we explore the influencing factors from the perspectives of both edges and nodes in the demand and supply networks. The results show that the YTO Express network exhibits a clear east–west distribution pattern, with dense concentrations in the east and sparse distributions in the west, aligning with the small-world phenomenon. In terms of spatial dimension, the network shows a trend of fragmentation transitioning towards aggregation, while in temporal terms, it evolves from inefficiency to efficiency. Key factors influencing network node attributes include the development of the internet, economic growth, transportation, and geographical factors. The development of the express network is closely related to the economic correlation network, and both of them have a positive influence on each other, while the economic correlation network has a more obvious promotion effect on the express network. Finally, we propose optimizing transportation routes, increasing regional hub nodes, and combining express network design with e-commerce warehouse distribution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 408-424"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling the dynamics of China railway express (CRE) in China: A multi-method analysis","authors":"Shuang Yuan ,&nbsp;Peng Jia ,&nbsp;Qing Liu ,&nbsp;Ruibin Si","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China Railway Express (CRE) has significantly reshaped Eurasian trade dynamics through transcontinental rail connectivity. However, systematic quantitative analysis of its spatiotemporal evolution and the heterogeneous drivers behind its development remain understudied. This study utilizes a unique monthly panel dataset from 2013 to 2021, covering involved provinces, and employs an integrated methodology to examine the CRE's evolving patterns and drivers. The key findings include: (1) Spatial econometric analysis reveals distinct cargo flow patterns—outgoing shipments diffuse from northeastern and coastal regions toward central and western hubs, while incoming flows shift from central and eastern China toward southwestern and western regions, establishing the central and western provinces as key nodes in bidirectional logistics networks. (2) Regression analysis identifies a set of significant driving factors, this set of factors is further excavated through DeepAR forecasting and 50 iterations of Permutation Feature Importance (PFI), which uncovers region-specific drivers: outgoing flows are predominantly influenced by policy interventions and supply-side factors (e.g., infrastructure and government attention), while incoming flows are driven by demand-side forces (e.g., consumer markets and informatization level). Coastal areas exhibit a substitution effect with sea-rail transport. Based on these PFI results, targeted recommendations for regional policy differentiation are proposed. (3) Wavelet coherence analysis reveals a dynamic evolution in the relationship between government policy attention and cargo flow volumes, signifying a shift from active governmental engagement towards more passive facilitation. Methodologically, this study introduces a novel analytical framework integrating spatiotemporal pattern analysis, machine learning-driven explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) for driver decomposition, and policy response assessment. Practically, it provides actionable recommendations for tailored regional strategies and offers a replicable methodological blueprint for optimizing multi-regional rail freight systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 370-388"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144365497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How economic development impacts transportation safety: Evidence from China","authors":"Jian Chan ,&nbsp;Qi Li ,&nbsp;Tao Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Based on 31 inland provincial samples from 2002 to 2019 in China. This article adopted the GTWR model to analyze the impact of economic development in transportation safety with the potential path. The results can be concluded as follows: (1) China's road traffic accident is at a lower level with a downward trend, and the road traffic accident spatially decrease gradient from northeast to southwest and most regions are at the Lower-Lower cluster type regions showing a cluster effect. (2) The impact of economic development on the road traffic accident is positive before 2012 and negative after 2012 respectively with spatial heterogeneity characteristics. (3) The education level and market environment play negative moderating role in the impact of economic development on the road traffic accident. Finally, policy implications are provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 428-439"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144480152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}