Determinants of scrubber adoption in container shipping: A time-varying survival analysis

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103810

Lingyue Li , Yujie Wang , Chunzhu Wei , Xiaozhi Ma , Dian Sheng

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2020 global sulphur cap has accelerated the adoption of scrubbers in the container shipping sector. However, research on when to install scrubbers and how key factors affect installation remains limited. This study addresses that gap by applying a time-varying survival analysis to investigate the determinants of scrubber adoption in container ships. Using data from 4492 container ships built between 2000 and 2023, we examine how ship characteristics (e.g., age, size, fuel type), market features (e.g., shipbuilder and ship operator), and policy environment (e.g., IMO regulation, flag) influence the timing and likelihood of scrubber adoption. The results show that by the end of 2023, approximately 27.5 % of container ships have been equipped with scrubbers, with the adoption rate significantly accelerating after 2019. Among all influencing factors, fuel type determines the major part of a ship's operating cost and shows the strongest statistical association with scrubber adoption, highlighting the centrality of cost-benefit tradeoffs in compliance decisions. Ship age is the second important factor and shows a negative impact, while IMO regulation is the third important factor. Ship size, operator, flag, and builder also have significant but more moderate influences. The results also reveal important temporal dynamics in scrubber technology diffusion. The effect of IMO regulation decays exponentially, while the effect of fuel type decays linearly, indicating that scrubber adoption decisions have complex temporal dynamics. These findings extend our understanding of scrubber technology diffusion in maritime transportation, highlighting the dynamic nature of adoption drivers and the interaction between technical, economic, and regulatory factors.

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集装箱运输中洗涤器采用的决定因素：时变生存分析

国际海事组织（IMO）的2020年全球硫排放上限加速了集装箱航运业对洗涤器的采用。然而，关于何时安装洗涤器以及影响安装的关键因素的研究仍然有限。本研究通过应用时变生存分析来研究集装箱船舶采用洗涤器的决定因素，从而解决了这一差距。利用2000年至2023年间建造的4492艘集装箱船的数据，我们研究了船舶特征（例如，船龄、尺寸、燃料类型）、市场特征（例如，造船商和船舶运营商）和政策环境（例如，国际海事组织法规、旗帜）如何影响采用洗涤器的时间和可能性。结果显示，到2023年底，约27.5%的集装箱船舶配备了洗涤器，2019年后采用率显着加快。在所有影响因素中，燃料类型决定了船舶运营成本的主要部分，并与洗涤器的采用显示出最强的统计关联，突出了合规性决策中成本效益权衡的中心地位。船龄是第二个重要因素，显示出负面影响，而IMO法规是第三个重要因素。船舶尺寸、运营商、船旗和建造商也有显著但更温和的影响。结果还揭示了洗涤器技术扩散的重要时间动态。IMO调节的影响呈指数衰减，而燃料类型的影响呈线性衰减，表明采用洗涤器的决策具有复杂的时间动态。这些发现扩展了我们对海上运输中洗涤器技术扩散的理解，突出了采用驱动因素的动态性质以及技术、经济和监管因素之间的相互作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.