Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Exploring the macroeconomic drivers to electric vehicles sales in India- A panel data-based approach","authors":"Vijeta Singh ,&nbsp;Varsha Nerlekar ,&nbsp;Jitendra Kumar","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, and promoting non-fossil fuel-based transport mechanisms is one of the key ways to accomplish this goal. In this context, electric vehicles (EVs) can make a positive contribution to reducing air pollution and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. India has a dynamic electric vehicle (EV) market, and the Economic Survey for 2023 predicts that India's EV market will experience a 49 % compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2022 and 2030. The present study aims to investigate the macroeconomic determinants driving EV sales in India. Using panel data from 19 states/union territories (UTs)for two-wheeler EVs between 2015 and 2021 and applying the dynamic panel and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators, the study concluded that state net domestic product (SNDP) per capita, number of bank branches, per capita power availability, and presence of EV policy had a positive impact on two-wheeler EV sales while higher motor spirit consumption and inflation had a negative bearing on the two-wheeler EV sales. Based on the empirical results obtained, policy implications have been discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103818"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145160386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining public pre-acceptance of license plate restriction policy cancellation using structural equation modeling: Evidence from Hangzhou","authors":"Yexing Yin ,&nbsp;Wenzhu Xu ,&nbsp;Gang Yu ,&nbsp;Sheng Jin ,&nbsp;Wenbin Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103817","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To better understand the factors influencing the pre-acceptance of canceling the License Plate Restriction (LPR) policy among Hangzhou residents, a questionnaire survey was conducted with 958 residents, and two analytical methods were applied. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to examine the complex relationships between psychological factors. Meanwhile, ordinal logistic regression was employed to analyze the influence of socio-economic attributes, such as gender, family life cycle, commuting time, and vehicle ownership, on policy pre-acceptance. The results indicate that the acceptance of alternative measures, perceived infringement, social norms, post-acceptance of the LPR policy, perceived effectiveness, perceived cost-benefit, and fairness significantly influence the public's pre-acceptance of canceling the LPR policy. Through the analysis of socio-economic attributes, it was found that families with children, groups with higher travel demands, and those with fewer vehicles are more likely to support canceling the LPR policy. Among these, males show a greater willingness to cancel the LPR policy compared to females. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers, offering evidence-based recommendations for optimizing Traffic Demand Management (TDM) strategies, particularly as the effectiveness of the LPR policy declines over time. The findings are significant as they contribute to the understanding of public attitudes toward policy change and can inform future traffic management reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103817"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon emissions reduction in maritime supply chain under cap-and-trade and carbon tax policies","authors":"Tingsong Wang ,&nbsp;Lingxin Xia ,&nbsp;Yadong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103815","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103815","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Maritime carbon emissions have evolved into a pressing global environmental challenge. The cap-and-trade and carbon tax are two market-oriented policies adopted by many governments to reduce carbon emissions. However, the existing research on emission reduction policies either focuses on some methods within a single policy category or focuses on comparisons at the macro policy level. There is a lack of in-depth analyses on the implementation details of these two policies, namely, the quota allocation methods in cap-and-trade and the tax rate structures of carbon taxes. Therefore, this study integrates three carbon trading quota allocation methods: grandfathering (G), benchmarking (B), and historical intensity (HI) and two tax rate forms: flat-rate tax (FT) and progressive tax (PT) to establish a game-theoretic framework involving the government, the port company, and the shipping company. This study also analyzes the impacts of these methods on carbon emissions within the maritime supply chain (MSC). The main findings are as follows: (1) Methods G, HI, FT, and PT achieve emission reductions by constraining production quantities, whereas Method B risks emission increases due to output expansion. (2) Method B maximizes profits by scaling production quantities, outperforming Methods G and PT. These three methods (G, B, and PT) exhibit profit growth under carbon price increases, whereas Methods HI and FT experience profit declines as carbon prices rise. (3) Method B maximizes short-term profits but risks higher emissions, and Methods G and PT balance profits and emissions, while Methods HI and FT underperform and should be avoided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103815"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118194","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing the maturity of urban freight transport policies in France: Key factors influencing policy integration","authors":"Joris Drapeau ,&nbsp;David Carassus ,&nbsp;Gisèle Mendy-Bilek","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103816","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103816","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent studies have identified local authorities as key actors in the development, selection, and support of policies promoting sustainable urban logistics. Yet, despite normative pressure exerted by European directives, French planning documents still insufficiently consider urban logistics, and few measures have been taken to promote its sustainability. This study analyzed how urban logistics are considered in the public policies of 121 local French authorities. We also examined the factors favorable to integrating urban logistics into those policies as well as the role played by a French national program (InTerLUD) in such integration. Our analysis employed a maturity model, a survey, and a review of pertinent documents. The results revealed that although urban logistics is heterogeneously integrated into local policies, French local authorities are starting to develop a structured, coordinated strategy to promote it. They highlight that the French national program, which facilitates the integration of urban logistics into public policies by promoting voluntary commitment charters signed by local public and private actors, contributes to this development. Consequently, this article highlights the main contributions of the program as well as the challenges encountered in implementing these voluntary charters. Moreover, this study offers insights into how local authorities not involved in the program can address the obstacles they face as a result of insufficient political support or limited resources.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103816"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comprehensive framework for the assessment of the effects of increased electric truck weights on road infrastructure: A New York City case study","authors":"Zerun Liu ,&nbsp;Tu Lan ,&nbsp;Zilin Bian ,&nbsp;Jingqin Gao ,&nbsp;Kaan Ozbay","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103808","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103808","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To reduce emissions due to truck-based freight transport, transitioning from internal combustion engine (ICE) trucks to electric trucks (e-trucks) is an essential step. The impact of heavy-duty ICE trucks on pavement and bridge infrastructure has been widely studied, especially in the context of urban freight. However, similar impacts of heavier e-trucks, mainly as a result of their large battery packs still remain insufficiently studied. These battery packs add up to 8000–9000 pounds (3628.74-4082.33 kg) to heavy-duty trucks, potentially accelerating infrastructure degradation if not appropriately planned for. This paper assesses the impact of this additional weight on urban pavement and bridges and suggests long-term policy development to ensure infrastructure safety amid the growing adoption of e-trucks, a crucial step towards reducing carbon emissions. Since e-truck are not yet fully deployed, we propose a novel methodological framework to help identify the impacts of increased weights of e-trucks on urban pavement and bridges for a number of future adoption scenarios. There were four phases of the proposed research framework: (1) development of different scenarios of e-truck adoption, (2) generation of projected data (such as e-truck weights and adoption rates) for these scenarios, (3) evaluation of the impacts of e-trucks on pavement and bridge infrastructure, and (4) assessment of policy-relevant infrastructure indicators. Using New York City (NYC) as an example, our framework projected e-truck weights and adoption in 2030 and 2050, based on assumptions developed from historical data and literature. We employed the Pavement Damage Assessment Cost (PDAC) method to quantify the infrastructural impacts. The study found that conventional oversized trucks in NYC impose an estimated $4.16 million in bridge and pavement damage costs in 2023. With projected adoption rates of e-trucks, damage costs are expected to increase by up to an additional 12% (around $0.5 million), posing a significant added burden on pavement and bridge infrastructure. The application of the proposed methodological framework can provide actionable insights for policymakers elsewhere to develop strategies that ensure infrastructure longevity and safety as e-truck adoption continues to grow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103808"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial patterns, implementation barriers, and facilitators in Seoul's E-scooter parking corral system: A mixed-methods analysis","authors":"Seol Ah Moon,&nbsp;Eun Jin Shin","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103813","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103813","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid rise of shared e-scooters has raised concerns about disorderly parking, which negatively impacts pedestrian safety and public space management. Consequently, many cities worldwide have recently introduced designated parking corrals; however, their implementation remains in its early stages and has received limited academic attention. This study examines the distribution of shared e-scooter parking corrals in Seoul, South Korea, using spatial analysis to assess their spatial inequality and alignment with demand. In addition, in-depth interviews with key stakeholders and an analysis of media coverage and policy documents identify the challenges and facilitating factors shaping corral implementation and explaining the observed spatial patterns. The findings reveal an overall shortage of e-scooter corrals and stark disparities across neighborhoods and districts, with only a few areas relatively well-served. A clear spatial mismatch emerges between e-scooter parking supply and demand. Qualitative analysis identifies multiple implementation barriers, many of which stem from Seoul's centralized governance structure and the absence of a national legal framework and an operator-permit system. These include a fragmented and non-binding regulatory framework, financial constraints, limited spatial availability, and the underutilization of existing corrals. Collectively, these factors hinder effective implementation and perpetuate the limited and uneven distribution of e-scooter parking infrastructure. Despite these challenges, this study finds that government-led multi-stakeholder collaboration can play a critical role in the effective implementation of e-scooter corrals. Drawing on these findings and situating them within a comparative context, this study proposes a policy framework for diagnosing and assessing the implementation capacity of e-scooter infrastructure policy in centralized governance contexts that lack a formal operator-permit system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103813"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Valuing driverless commuting – Downtown parking impacts","authors":"Fuad Yasin Huda ,&nbsp;Graham Currie ,&nbsp;Allan Pimenta ,&nbsp;Liton (Md) Kamruzzaman","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103807","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103807","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to transform travel behaviour and transport planning, with self-parking capabilities being a key advantage. In downtown or central business districts (CBDs), car commuters either pay for parking themselves (self-paid, SP) or have it covered by their employers (employer-paid, EP). However, the extent to which these groups will value their travel time (VOT) and whether they will engage in empty cruising cost to avoid parking costs in an AV era remain unexplored. This study addresses these gaps through an online stated preference survey in Melbourne, Australia, employing a discrete choice experiment and mixed logit modelling. Findings reveal that SP commuters would value travel time at 14.9 $/hr in private AVs, compared to 22.2 $/hr in conventional cars (CARs), while EP commuters’ VOT would be higher, at 24.3 $/hr for private AVs and 28.2 $/hr for CARs. SP commuters will experience a 33 % VOT decrease in AV travel compared to CAR travel, whereas EP commuters will experience a 14 % VOT reduction. These results indicate a significant decline in VOT for AV travel, particularly among SP commuters. The findings provide critical insights for transport practitioners in travel demand forecasting, transport modelling, parking policies and cost-benefit analyses. Policymakers can leverage these insights to assess the potential travel benefits of AV adoption and make informed decisions regarding infrastructure investments to support a sustainable AV future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103807"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of air cargo traffic in Europe: Intercontinental flights, competition and airlines’ business model","authors":"Xavier Fageda ,&nbsp;Marta Gonzalez-Aregall","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103812","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103812","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we examine the determinants of air cargo traffic in European airports from 2002 to 2019 by estimating a two-way fixed effects model. We focus on the correlation between air cargo and key attributes of passenger services at airports, including the number of non-stop intercontinental destinations, the share of network airlines, and the intensity of competition. We consider different samples with a special attention to mid-sized airports located in relatively big cities. We find that the availability of direct flights to North America, East Asia, and the Middle East has a positive impact on air cargo. A higher percentage of flights offered by network airlines leads to more air cargo as well. However, we also find that competition stimulates air cargo, meaning that medium-sized airports can benefit from a greater presence of non-European network airlines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103812"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The spatial efficiency evaluation and classification of multi-modal passenger transportation hubs: A case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China","authors":"JiangBo Yu ,&nbsp;JianCheng Weng ,&nbsp;Jiaolong Chai ,&nbsp;Pengfei Lin ,&nbsp;Tian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103811","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103811","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The spatial efficiency evaluation of multi-modal passenger transportation hubs (MPTHs) in urban agglomeration is conducive to the optimization of future hub layout and urban development enhancement. This study delves into the spatial efficiency of MPTHs by considering three dimensions: intercity travel network characteristics, urban development features, and the connectivity between MPTHs and urban facilities. An evaluation index system consisting of 22 indicators was constructed for MPTHs within urban agglomerations. Gaussian Mixture Clustering was employed to conduct a detailed classification of the development of these MPTHs. A ‘Node-Place-Connectivity’ coupling coordination model was proposed to assess the spatial efficiency of them. Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, the spatial efficiency variations among MPTHs were examined. The results indicated that the efficiency of MPTHs and the coupling coordination degree are divided into 12 classes. Highly balanced MPTHs were concentrated in Beijing, showcasing a monocentric regional structure within the urban agglomeration. Good coordinated MPTHs were strategically located in the main urban areas of cities such as Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Baoding, potentially fostering a polycentric urban structure within the urban agglomeration. The coordination and balance of MPTHs gradually decreased from the main urban areas to the periphery, forming a distinct concentric distribution pattern, which was particularly evident in cities like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang. In the marginal areas of cities and urban agglomerations, the efficiency of MPTHs was relatively low, and these MPTHs should be further developed to promote the fairness of socio-economic development in urban agglomerations. This method can serve as a decision-making tool for the planning of MPTHs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103811"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of scrubber adoption in container shipping: A time-varying survival analysis","authors":"Lingyue Li ,&nbsp;Yujie Wang ,&nbsp;Chunzhu Wei ,&nbsp;Xiaozhi Ma ,&nbsp;Dian Sheng","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 2020 global sulphur cap has accelerated the adoption of scrubbers in the container shipping sector. However, research on when to install scrubbers and how key factors affect installation remains limited. This study addresses that gap by applying a time-varying survival analysis to investigate the determinants of scrubber adoption in container ships. Using data from 4492 container ships built between 2000 and 2023, we examine how ship characteristics (e.g., age, size, fuel type), market features (e.g., shipbuilder and ship operator), and policy environment (e.g., IMO regulation, flag) influence the timing and likelihood of scrubber adoption. The results show that by the end of 2023, approximately 27.5 % of container ships have been equipped with scrubbers, with the adoption rate significantly accelerating after 2019. Among all influencing factors, fuel type determines the major part of a ship's operating cost and shows the strongest statistical association with scrubber adoption, highlighting the centrality of cost-benefit tradeoffs in compliance decisions. Ship age is the second important factor and shows a negative impact, while IMO regulation is the third important factor. Ship size, operator, flag, and builder also have significant but more moderate influences. The results also reveal important temporal dynamics in scrubber technology diffusion. The effect of IMO regulation decays exponentially, while the effect of fuel type decays linearly, indicating that scrubber adoption decisions have complex temporal dynamics. These findings extend our understanding of scrubber technology diffusion in maritime transportation, highlighting the dynamic nature of adoption drivers and the interaction between technical, economic, and regulatory factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 103810"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}