Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Urban and regional Air Mobility (URAM) and relocation decisions in the United States: Insights from a machine learning-supported path analysis","authors":"Ningzhe Xu ,&nbsp;Javier Pena-Bastidas ,&nbsp;Chenxuan Yang ,&nbsp;Jun Liu ,&nbsp;Trayce Hockstad ,&nbsp;Steven Jones","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban and Regional Air Mobility (URAM) uses electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft to offer efficient, sustainable transportation within and between urban and regional areas. While existing studies have primarily focused on public interest and willingness to adopt URAM, its potential implications for residential and workplace relocation decisions remain underexplored. By substantially reducing travel times, URAM may disrupt conventional location constraints for daily commuters. This study surveys over 1000 individuals across the United States to assess perceptions of URAM and its influence on relocation decisions. A combination of path analysis and machine learning techniques—including Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Neural Networks—is employed to explore the associations among sociodemographic factors, travel behavior, URAM perceptions, and relocation decisions. Results indicate that higher income and employment in technical occupations are positively associated with URAM interest, while older age, larger household sizes, and carpooling habits are negatively associated. Educational attainment, income, and commuting preferences also shape the extent to which URAM is considered as an alternative to relocation. Path analysis reveals intricate indirect effects, some of which amplify or reverse direct influences on relocation behavior. The insights from this study suggest that, for example, URAM planning should account for access disparities for rural residents and older populations, support mobility for high-tech workers, and anticipate land use changes around future vertiport hubs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 92-109"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding preferences for autonomous trucks functions in China: Insights from drivers and organizational buyers","authors":"Hanlong Fu ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Fu ,&nbsp;Shi Ye ,&nbsp;Kun Wang ,&nbsp;Tiantian Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transportation industry is undergoing a significant transformation as it integrates advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) technologies. This shift is particularly important in the trucking industry. Driver assistance technologies offer a promising solution for improving safety and reducing traffic accidents. However, the trucking industry lags significantly behind passenger vehicles in the maturity and penetration rate of such technologies. This study uses a stated preference survey to explore the purchasing preferences for ADAS functions among truck drivers and organization buyers in China. Our findings show that truck drivers with a safe driving history prioritize reliability and assistance features such as automatic emergency braking, adaptive cruise control, and lane-centering control. In contrast, drivers with a record of unsafe driving favor more advanced ADAS functions, such as city or highway navigation on autopilot, owing to their ability to alleviate driving stress. Buyers from organizations, compared with individual truck drivers, are more averse to the additional costs of ADAS technologies, while larger companies seem more willing to invest in autonomous trucks than are smaller businesses and individuals. However, top management teams remain cautious, reflecting a lack of confidence in the operational and safety benefits of the current technology at Level 2 autonomy. Resistance to adopting autonomous trucks is also stronger among male (vs. female) drivers and older drivers, who comprise a large segment of the domestic market. The study recommends that autonomous vehicle system providers and governments prioritize active safety functions to further improve safety. Furthermore, it is suggested that extensive training and trials be provided to increase trust and confidence in autonomous truck technologies among industry stakeholders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 110-119"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Navigating sustainable mobility: Wavelet insights into carbon emissions in Germany's transportation sector","authors":"Sami Ullah ,&nbsp;Zakaria Boulanouar ,&nbsp;Muhammad Saeed Meo ,&nbsp;Kishwar Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving carbon neutrality by 2045 is a key national goal in Germany, where the transportation sector—currently responsible for 20 % of the nation's total CO₂ emissions—remains one of the most challenging areas for decarbonization. This study investigates the influence of biofuels (BIOF), energy productivity (ENGP), infrastructure development (INFD), and sustainable energy innovation (SEIN) on transport-sector CO₂ emissions (TCO₂) in Germany. Using quarterly data from 2000 to 2021, a wavelet-based analysis is employed to examine the dynamic relationships between these structural variables and emissions across multiple time horizons. The findings reveal that BIOF, ENGP, and SEIN are negatively associated with transport emissions, while INFD is positively correlated. Notably, BIOF and SEIN exhibit stronger mitigation effects in the medium and long term, whereas INFD contributes to emission increases across both short- and long-term scales—underscoring the importance of aligning infrastructure planning with climate objectives. The outcomes are robust and further validated through wavelet-based OLS regression. This paper provides novel empirical evidence based on high-frequency transport data and offers actionable policy recommendations that support Germany's Climate Action Law and EU-level climate frameworks. The insights also hold relevance for other countries seeking to design sustainable mobility pathways modeled on advanced economies like Germany.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 120-136"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geopolitical risks and airlines stock return — Implications to the financial stability of European airlines","authors":"Yifei Cai ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Fu ,&nbsp;Yahua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study utilizes a time-varying Granger causality test to investigate the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and stock return of main carriers in Europe. While the overall estimations from the entire dataset reveal limited evidence supporting causality between these variables, the rolling-window bootstrapping Granger causality test presents a dynamic pattern that a time-varying causality running from geopolitical risks to airline stock returns. However, within this fluctuating analytical framework, airline stock returns fail to reliably predict geopolitical risks. Finally, we offer significant policy implications to the financial stability of European airlines.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 51-57"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Steering through Uncertainty: How economic policy instability shapes smart transportation budgets","authors":"Zhu Zhenye ,&nbsp;Xiaofeng Zhang ,&nbsp;Asima Siddique ,&nbsp;Muhammad Zahir Faridi ,&nbsp;Sajid Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economic policy uncertainty significantly impacts investment decisions, shaping technological advancements in critical sectors. Amid shifting economic landscapes, smart transportation technology is a key indicator of innovation and resilience. This research explores the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on smart transportation technology budgets in the top ten nations having the highest R&amp;D funding in this field (China, the USA, Germany, Japan, Norway, the Netherlands, the UK, France, South Korea, and Sweden). The former studies used panel data tools and usually passed over nuanced national economic frameworks. This research adopts the sophisticated Quantile-on-Quantile technique, which estimates how various quantiles of the independent variable influence different quantiles of the dependent variable, thereby revealing asymmetric or nonlinear relationships. This method enables analysis of variables’ fluctuations in each economy, enhancing accuracy and deepening understanding of their unique features. Results reveal that economic policy uncertainty significantly curtails smart transportation technology budgets in most selected countries, each showing distinct patterns. These findings highlight the need for decision-makers to evaluate and formulate policies that manage economic policy uncertainty and smart transportation technology. Aligning these strategies with the Sustainable Development Goals will promote sustainable urban development, reduce emissions, and foster inclusive growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 178-192"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consumer preferences for public EV charging tariffs and infrastructure reliability: A choice experiment","authors":"Peter Letmathe,&nbsp;Dustin Sperling,&nbsp;Richard Woeste","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public charging infrastructure (CIS) and its corresponding tariffs are becoming increasingly important for growing the market share of electric vehicles. To investigate the optimal design of such tariffs by gaining a better understanding of how consumers value the different attributes and the reliability of CIS, a choice-based conjoint analysis was conducted with 516 participants in Germany. Results suggest that the energy price is the most important attribute. However, unlimited tariffs are not perceived as being the most beneficial: A medium energy price combined with a moderate monthly fee is considered the most attractive option across the sample. Increased reliability provides high utility compared to the current status quo of about 80 % successful charging sessions. Additional services, such as a towing service or a mobility guarantee, are not regarded as beneficial by most participants. Policies should focus on ensuring competition for attractive charging prices and for sufficient and reliable CIS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 147-162"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Accounting for uncertainties in cost-benefit analyses of road projects: A procedure illustrated by real-world projects","authors":"Eivind Tveter ,&nbsp;Morten Welde ,&nbsp;James Odeck","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A critical step in the road investment decision-making process is to conduct cost-benefit analyses (CBAs) to assess the net social benefit of project alternatives. CBA results are often presented to decision-makers as point estimates. However, such results rely on numerous forecasts, parameters, and unit values, which introduce uncertainty. This paper adds to the literature on transport CBAs by evaluating how their inherent uncertainty can be considered by analysts and presented to decision-makers. We develop a Monte Carlo simulation procedure that uses variations in the most critical factors related to CBAs. We apply this procedure to a set of projects to demonstrate how it could inform decision-makers in terms of the uncertainties involved in CBAs. We show that if analysts present ranges or confidence intervals, decision-makers may make other choices that differ from those based on point estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 137-146"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116781","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Identifying the effect of street network system on activity behaviours near the homes of older adults: An analytical framework integrating transportation, social, and natural attributes","authors":"Ruina Han ,&nbsp;Dongfeng Yang ,&nbsp;Zhengying Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extensive research has explored the relationship between street characteristics and the activity behavior of older adults, yet the exploration of non-linear relationships in this context remains limited. Additionally, natural street attributes, such as blue and green spaces, have been largely understudied. This paper fills these gaps by exploring the nonlinear relationships between street network features and activity behaviors near older adults' homes, using a gradient boosting decision tree model, with a focus on Dalian, China. The study highlights three key findings. First, street network characteristics have a stronger influence on activity behaviors than socio-demographic factors. Second, the relationship between street network features and activity behaviors is often nonlinear, emphasizing the need for nonlinear analysis methods. Third, the study reveals that strategies aimed at enhancing street network closeness, improving service facilities, increasing public transport accessibility and enhancing the quality of green and blue spaces may motivate older adults to engage in activity behaviours. The interaction between key street network indicators reveals significant effects, requiring identification of their effective ranges and interaction values. These insights offer practical recommendations for urban planning and promote strategies to support healthier lifestyles for older adults, ultimately contributing to the development of sustainable transportation systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 34-50"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Study on travel choice behavior of medium and long distance intercity passengers in the context of air-rail competition","authors":"Yanchang Chu ,&nbsp;Yanbo Ai ,&nbsp;Zhenghong Wu ,&nbsp;Huijuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the highly competitive environment of medium and long distance passenger transport market, enhancing passengers' willingness to choose air travel and market share is an important issue for airlines. This paper establishes a passenger travel choice behavior model that considers transfers between urban and intercity transportation as well as network information, focusing on air and high-speed rail. Based on the survey of passengers in Tianjin, partial least squares structural equation model and necessary condition analysis is employed to show that perceived tangibility, perceived inertia, perceived comfort, perceived convenience, perceived safety and perceived reliability of two travel modes have a positive effect on perceived value. Perceived value significantly influences satisfaction, while both satisfaction and perceived value of time significantly affect travel behavior intention. Network information guidance plays a moderating role between satisfaction and travel behavior intention. The moderating effect of transfer efficiency on travel choice behavior is only significant in air travel. Perceived tangibility, perceived inertia, perceived comfort, perceived value and satisfaction are the necessary conditions of travel behavior intention in air travel, while perceived comfort and perceived value are the necessary conditions of travel behavior intention in high-speed rail travel. Those findings are helpful to understand factors affecting travel choice behavior of air passengers, and provide important references for optimizing air services and formulating targeted market strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 163-177"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Drivers' trip purpose and pre-crash maneuvers as determinants of pedestrian injury severity: Insights and policy recommendations","authors":"Matin Sadeghi ,&nbsp;Kayvan Aghabayk ,&nbsp;MohammadAli Seyfi ,&nbsp;Nirajan Shiwakoti","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pedestrian safety is a critical component of sustainable urban mobility. Despite the known societal and health benefits of walking, pedestrians remain one of the most vulnerable groups on the road, often suffering severe injuries in crashes due to their lack of physical protection. To address this issue, policies encouraging walking must go hand in hand with measures that enhance safety. This study investigates the risk factors affecting pedestrian crash severity on urban roads in the United Kingdom, with a focus on the underexplored role of drivers' trip purposes and crash preceding maneuvers.</div><div>Using a temporal analysis, the study reveals that drivers' trip purposes, particularly ‘commuting trips' and ‘work-related journeys’, are significantly associated with serious pedestrian injuries. The analysis further explores crash preceding actions, finding that vehicle maneuvers such as reversing, turning, and stopping/starting, as well as pedestrian movements such as crossing from the driver's offside or walking along roadways, significantly impact injury outcomes. While minor injuries are more likely during vehicle turning, reversing, and pedestrian road-walking, fatal injuries are strongly associated with maneuvers like pedestrian crossings that involve higher risk.</div><div>These findings provide essential insights into pedestrian crash dynamics and can inform more targeted safety measures. Policy recommendations include developing tailored traffic management strategies, such as limiting certain high-risk maneuvers in pedestrian-dense areas, lowering speed limits in urban areas, and adopting advanced vehicle safety technologies. Additionally, creating awareness campaigns that emphasize the dangers posed by specific driver behaviors during work-related or commuting trips could help mitigate risks. Enhancing driver training for taxi, truck, and bus operators, particularly in urban areas, and implementing workplace safety programs targeting driver fatigue could improve road safety. Finally, public awareness campaigns emphasizing both pedestrian visibility and safe crossing behaviors are crucial for reducing pedestrian vulnerability. Integrating these insights into broader urban transport planning and adopting stricter pedestrian safety regulations would support more effective interventions aimed at reducing pedestrian injury severity and enhancing road safety in urban environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 58-74"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}