Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity","authors":"Shuiyang Chen ,&nbsp;Bin Meng ,&nbsp;Bingcheng Qiu ,&nbsp;Haibo Kuang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We employ textual analysis on 1793935 news articles from seven newspapers to comprehensively measure adverse maritime events and associated risks across seven dimensions, resulting in the development of a news-based Maritime Risk Index (MRI). We validate the professionalism, effectiveness, and robustness of MRI in capturing maritime risks. The MRI adversely affects various aspects of the macroeconomic market performance, monetary policy, employment, and industrial production. Higher maritime risk predicts a decrease in the output of the shipping sector, reducing shipping capacity and significantly impacting global maritime trade activities. MRI innovations include crucial information about port congestion and surging freight rates, playing a key role in explaining and foreshadowing port congestion. It serves as a leading (price discovery) indicator in the dry bulk and container shipping markets and exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship with the tanker shipping market. Our findings not only advance the understanding of maritime transport system risks and their interaction with macroeconomic, but also offer practical applications for improving transport policy and practice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 246-263"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143776360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Examining the impact of spatial inequality in socio-demographic and commute patterns on traffic crash rates: Insights from interpretable machine learning and spatial statistical models","authors":"Pengfei Cui ,&nbsp;Mohamed Abdel-Aty ,&nbsp;Chenzhu Wang ,&nbsp;Xiaobao Yang ,&nbsp;Dongdong Song","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traffic crash rates are often closely related to the region's socio-demographic, commuting behavior, motivated by the risks associated with increased region density and excessive congestion. However, crash rates of different severities may vary considerably due to socio-spatial disparities and the mitigation behaviors adopted across regions. Thus, this study elucidates the intricate effects of socio-demographic dynamics and commuting behavior on overall and fatal traffic crash rates across Florida's counties, with particular emphasis on the underlying factors of spatial inequality. Employing an interpretable machine learning model, specifically eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), we demonstrate its superiority in detecting spatial heterogeneity and the complex effects of various factors compared to traditional spatial statistical models, e.g. Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression model (MGWR). A comprehensive simulation experiment was designed to validate the dependability of modeled fittings, which confirms XGBoost as a reliable alternative to conventional spatial statistical models, particularly when dealing with datasets that including complex effects including spatial lag, spatial heterogeneity, non-linear effects and potential interaction effects. Furthermore, the totally empirical findings for Florida reveal the spatial variations in overall and fatal crash rates, correlating significantly with socio-demographic and commute pattern variables. An endogeneity test has been conducted initially for empirical datasets, accompanied by strategies to eliminate the biasing effect of endogenous variables on subsequent modeling process. Finally, key variables include population demographics, commute duration, education levels, unemployment rates, and intersection density produce heterogeneous effects on overall and fatal traffic crash rates. Notably, the study dispels the conventional belief that higher overall crash rates directly correlate with higher fatal crash rates in the same regions, underscoring the importance of distinct analysis. Policy measures should focus on improving accessibility to road infrastructure and healthcare services, with tailored approaches for sparse and densely populated areas. These findings underscore the need to address spatial inequalities in transportation infrastructure and policy measures to reduce traffic crash rates and improve road safety across all regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 222-245"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of subsidy efficiency on bus electrification: A participatory system dynamic modeling","authors":"Alyson L.P. Rodrigues ,&nbsp;Liana Cipcigan ,&nbsp;Dimitris Potoglou ,&nbsp;Dominic Dattero ,&nbsp;Peter Wells ,&nbsp;Sônia Regina da Cal Seixas","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the effectiveness of government subsidies in promoting the adoption of Battery Electric Buses (BEBs) and mitigating CO₂ emissions to illustrate how political and contextual factors interact in this implementation. Case studies from Wales and Brazil were chosen to demonstrate results in different national contexts and identify differences and similarities in electrification initiatives. The system dynamics (SD) models are established through group model building (GMB) involving interdisciplinary workshops conducted with local researchers from both countries. Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) were employed to describe the system in terms of causal connections and mutual influences. The simulated results reveals that the static subsidy efficiency in 2030 for Brazil and Wales correspond to 43 % and 64 %, respectively. The emissions avoided per BEBs unit corresponds to approximately 129.848 tons CO₂/year and 109.310 tones CO₂/year, respectively. The originality of this research results from the development of flexible models as a decision tool for the electrification of public transport. Therefore, the findings are useful to both researchers and policymakers involved in crafting action plans of bus transit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 210-221"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Expanding the understanding of universal design beyond technical solutions and physical environment – 8 policy intervention areas","authors":"Anja Fleten Nielsen,&nbsp;Iratxe Landa-Mata","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mobility is essential for enabling people to work outside their homes and participate in a wide range of social activities. Moreover, the freedom of mobility—often taken for granted—is a crucial aspect of citizens' quality of life. Despite this, substantial portions of the population experience barriers that constrain their mobility. This paper demonstrates that adopting a holistic approach to universal design is more effective in reducing social exclusion for people with disabilities and making the public transport system accessible to as many people as possible. This is achieved by broadening the scope of user groups' needs and moving beyond universal design approaches that primarily focus on technical interventions and the physical environment. Based on a literature review of studies on universal design in transport systems, we identify a comprehensive set of barriers experienced by a wide range of user groups and the necessary interventions to mitigate these barriers. User groups include people with cognitive, intellectual, and psychosocial impairments, as well as those with respiratory conditions (asthma, allergies, COPD), gastrointestinal issues, pain, and seizure disorders, in addition to the classical impairments that research and policy have traditionally focused on (visual, hearing, mobility). Furthermore, we address the needs of user groups such as children, the elderly, and people with strollers. Our findings illustrate that policy measures must address organizational, individual, and social environments, in addition to the physical environment, to create a universally designed transport system for all.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 157-177"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using ZSG-DEA and inverse DEA to predict resource allocation for road traffic safety in China","authors":"Ying Zhao ,&nbsp;Jiang-Hong Zhu ,&nbsp;Yan-Wei Zhang ,&nbsp;Meng-Yu Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The issue of road traffic safety in China has consistently been a focal point of research within the academic community. Previous literature has proposed the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models to evaluate safety efficiency. However, few scholars have examined the associated resource allocation issues or predicted future resource distribution. Consequently, this study aims to forecast resource allocation for future road traffic safety. We utilize road traffic safety indicators from 2012 to 2022 to calculate the resource allocation for 2025 across three aspects. Firstly, we employ the zero-sum gains Data Envelopment Analysis (ZSG-DEA) model in conjunction with the Gray Model (GM(1,1)) and the Criteria Importance Though Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method to predict the three factors influencing road traffic safety. Secondly, we utilize the inverse DEA model of frontier changes to forecast the necessary investments aligned with the planning objectives. Finally, we apply machine learning methods to predict output. The results indicate that: (1) In certain provinces, the quota for the three factors influencing road traffic safety is limited, resulting in increased pressure for future development. (2) Under the established planning objectives, some provinces require substantial investment, which should be judiciously managed. (3) Certain provinces exhibit high predicted output but must identify the underlying reasons for their low efficiency to enhance overall output. In summary, our research provides data-driven support and recommendations for decision-makers in establishing future planning goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 101-115"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"AIS data-driven assessment of shore side electricity's emission reduction potential in China","authors":"Jihong Chen ,&nbsp;Hao Chen ,&nbsp;Jia Shi ,&nbsp;Meiyu Shi ,&nbsp;Jinyu Xu ,&nbsp;Houqiang Jiang ,&nbsp;Yuan Xiang ,&nbsp;Yinuo Liu ,&nbsp;Huangziyi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emissions from ships at ports significantly affect air quality and public health. Shore side electricity (SSE) is a promising solution for mitigating these emissions. Based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and national grid emission factors, this study developed a bottom-up model to evaluate SSE's emission reduction potential. We compiled an emission inventory of container ships at 37 coastal ports in mainland China in 2022 and evaluated the effectiveness of SSE. Results show that the emissions of air pollutants (SO₂, NO_X, PM_2.5, CO, and NMVOC) from these ships totaled 5.58 × 10⁴ tons, while greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) totaled 2.90 × 10⁶ tons. SSE implementation results in significant emission reductions, decreasing overall port emissions by approximately 58 % and berth emissions by nearly 90 %. However, due to substantial differences in port characteristics and regional grid energy structures, the emission reduction potential exhibits considerable heterogeneity across ports. Based on our analysis of emission reduction data across various ports, we propose three targeted strategies: First, at the regional level, in areas with cleaner grid structures and high port activity, SSE facilities should be prioritized. In contrast, in regions that rely on fossil fuels, a combination of clean-energy vessels and route optimization measures should be promoted. Second, at the policy level, it is recommended to stimulate enterprise investment by implementing tiered subsidies, preferential electricity tariffs, and enhanced regulatory oversight. Third, at the implementation level, a collaborative mechanism between ports and shipping companies should be established to jointly optimize the planning and operation of SSE facilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 130-144"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green signal addresses the financing dilemmas in port development","authors":"Bo Lin ,&nbsp;Yuhao Cheng ,&nbsp;Bo Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With increasing global trade demands and the digital and green transformation of ports, the financing dilemma has emerged as a critical constraint on port development. To address the issue of information asymmetry between ports and investors, this paper proposes green port construction with the shore power berth installation rate as a core indicator as a signaling mechanism, constructing a dynamic Bayesian game model to analyze the strategic interactions and equilibrium conditions between ports and investors. The research demonstrates that when the shore power berth installation rate falls within a reasonable range (i.e., the cost of green construction for high-utilization ports is lower than their digitalization returns, while the cost exceeds returns for low-utilization ports), a separating equilibrium can be achieved—efficient ports signal their high quality through green construction to attract investment, while inefficient ports abstain from such initiatives. Numerical simulations, based on data from Hebei Port Group, validate the effectiveness of this mechanism and highlight that excessively high shore power installation standards can lead to a pooling equilibrium, resulting in investor refusal to finance. The numerical simulation also shows the speed at which the game tends toward equilibrium under different conditions. The stronger the profitability of the port after receiving investment, and the greater the probability that investors adopt a strategy to recognize green signals at the initial stage of the game, the faster the game tends to move towards a separating equilibrium.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 178-190"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143760771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alleviating dependence: High-speed rail opening and firms' supply chain dependence","authors":"Shushan Zhang ,&nbsp;Cheng Gu ,&nbsp;Peiwen Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Alleviating supply chain dependence (SCD) is important for maintaining long-term firm stability. Existing literature has gradually focused on the potential risks posed by firms' SCD, but research on how to alleviate SCD remains limited. We use data from 2433 listed manufacturing firms in China spanning the years 2003–2022. Using resource dependence theory and transaction cost theory, we examine the positive role of infrastructure development represented by high-speed railroads (HSR) in alleviating SCD. Our findings reveal that the opening of an HSR can alleviate SCD, but this effect is primarily observed in alleviating downstream large-customer dependence, with no significant impact on alleviating upstream large-supplier dependence. This effect is more pronounced in environments characterized by high levels of economic uncertainty and low levels of digital infrastructure. The opening of an HSR alleviates SCD mainly through two paths: enhancing the competitive market environment and reducing transaction costs. Furthermore, alleviating SCD contributes to enhanced firm resilience. Our research advances the understanding of the relationship between transportation infrastructure and supply chain management, offering insights for academics and practitioners on strategies to alleviate SCD.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 116-129"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multifunctional development patterns and driving mechanisms of high-speed rail station areas in the Yangtze River Delta, China","authors":"Xiaoran Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Wang ,&nbsp;Sheng Wei ,&nbsp;Yuanzheng Cui","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-speed rail (HSR) stations play an important role in shaping urban spaces and propelling regional development. Amid rapid urbanization and expansion of HSR networks, HSR station areas tend to transition from singular transport nodes into multifunctional urban spaces. Although previous studies have assessed the vitality and development potential of station areas, they tend to overlook the diversity in functional characteristics and the varied factors shaping these areas. This study investigates the evolution and differentiation of 197 HSR station areas in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China in 2022, focusing on identifying dominant functional types and their determinants of functional differentiation. Offering a novel approach, this study develops a quantitative framework to classify the dominant functional types within HSR station areas, bridging a gap in the literature that has primarily relied on qualitative classifications. The Random Forest algorithm combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis is employed to reveal the mechanisms that influence each functional type, providing a nuanced understanding of their dynamic characteristics. Results reveal the spatial scope of HSR station areas across various hierarchies and identify four dominant functional types: transportation function-dominant, business function-dominant, residential function-dominant, and comprehensive service function-dominant station areas. Each type exhibits distinct economic and geographic characteristics, reflecting specific urban development needs and growth patterns shaped by different factors. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations aimed at optimizing station area functions, thereby supporting the high-quality development of urban spaces induced by HSR development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 264-275"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143776361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Noise impacts and social justice analysis of off-peak deliveries in the Greater Toronto Area","authors":"Usman Ahmed ,&nbsp;Kianoush Mousavi ,&nbsp;Shang Zhang ,&nbsp;Matthew J. Roorda","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates noise impacts of Province of Ontario legislation that permitted off-peak deliveries (OPD) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, which was initiated at the beginning of the pandemic lockdown in March 2020. The study presents an analysis of noise complaints, results of a community noise survey of residents living near retail stores that received deliveries during evening and night-time hours, and analysis of racial and income disparities in noise impacts. 0.76 % of total noise complaints in Toronto are found to be due to off-peak commercial deliveries, indicating that OPD are a small but non-negligible portion of the noise experienced by residents. The community noise survey gauged noise perception by residents before and after the onset of the pandemic, when OPD began. Noise from ‘nearby business establishments’ reduced for most residents during the pandemic. Ratings of noise levels at all times of day decreased since the pandemic began, except for night-time, which increased for a small number of residents both within and outside of 150 m of a known OPD site. Only 7.2 % of respondents within 150 m of a known site of OPD ‘always’ heard evening/night-time truck deliveries to nearby businesses. Out of ten common noise sources presented to respondents, evening/night-time truck deliveries to nearby business establishments were the seventh most frequently heard noise for those living near known sites of OPD, and the least often heard for those living beyond 150 m from known sites of OPD. We do not find significant racial or income disparity in perception of evening/night-time truck deliveries noise.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"167 ","pages":"Pages 66-77"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143715531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}