Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Investigating the role of green mobility in coupling coordination of urbanization and ecological environment: Evidence from high-speed rail accessibility","authors":"Langang Feng ,&nbsp;Jin Hu ,&nbsp;Kaiya Wu ,&nbsp;Minmin Huang ,&nbsp;Mingjun Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-speed rail (HSR) represents a significant advancement in low-carbon transportation, offering both efficiency and environmental benefits. This study delves into the impact of HSR on coupling coordination of urbanization and ecological environment (CCUEE) in China, utilizing a comprehensive dataset from 284 cities spanning from 2005 to 2021. Through the application of interdisciplinary approaches, the difference-in-differences method in econometric, and social network analysis in sociology, the research uncovers that HSR markedly enhances CCUEE. The underlying mechanisms include the concentration of technology resources and improved labor mobility, which collectively bolster CCUEE. The benefits of HSR are notably pronounced in eastern regions, as well as in large cities, and non-resource-based cities. Conversely, in declining resource cities, HSR may intensify the “Matthew effect,” potentially exacerbating existing disparities. Additionally, from a network perspective, the breadth and depth of HSR connections significantly amplify its positive impact on CCUEE. These findings offer crucial insights into how low-carbon transportation infrastructure can advance CCUEE, providing valuable guidance for policymakers striving to implement effective urban policies and promote CCUEE through green transportation initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 24-33"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price discrimination between freight forwarders and carriers: Evidence from the container shipping industry","authors":"Pierre Cariou ,&nbsp;Haiying Jia ,&nbsp;François-Charles Wolff","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freight forwarders often serve as intermediaries in the container shipping industry, facilitating reservations and negotiating container freight rates between shippers and carriers. This study empirically investigates whether these freight forwarders experience price discrimination compared to shippers who engage in direct price negotiations with carriers. The analysis uses a unique dataset consisting of approximately 1.5 million real-world transactions from 2018 to 2023. The results show that, on average, freight forwarders incur a 5 % premium for short-term contracts but receive a 3 % discount for long-term contracts. Moreover, the premium was more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic, peaking at 18.1 % in 2021–2022. This finding is corroborated by a robust estimation that matches contracts negotiated by freight forwarders with comparable contracts negotiated directly by shippers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144069218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling and variable selection of healthcare trip behaviours using statistical learning techniques","authors":"Cagdas Kara ,&nbsp;Abdulkadir Ozden ,&nbsp;Arzu Altin Yavuz ,&nbsp;Safak Bilgic","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In an increasingly complex and fast-paced world, understanding healthcare-related travel behavior has become a critical challenge in transportation planning. Traditional models, including the Four-Step Transportation Model (FSTM), require further refinements to better capture evolving travel patterns, particularly the growing share of home-based other trips, which include shopping, leisure, and healthcare-related journeys. Among these, healthcare trips require special attention due to the increasing proportion of the aging population and the essential nature of medical accessibility.</div><div>This study aims to identify key variables influencing healthcare-related travel behaviors using variable selection techniques, specifically Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) and Elastic Net (ENet). The analysis is based on zonal-level aggregated data derived from household-based hospital travel surveys conducted in Eskişehir City. The model incorporates regional socioeconomic variables, including household characteristics, vehicle ownership rates, employment ratios, and age group distributions. Model performance is evaluated using Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) as key success criteria.</div><div>The results indicate that the ENet model achieved the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE), reducing the error by approximately 37 % compared to the OLS model, while the Lasso model yielded the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE), reflecting a 38 % improvement. Both methods effectively performed variable selection, retaining 10 out of 17 predictors in the final model. Significant variables positively associated with healthcare travel frequency include the proportions of individuals aged 30–49, 50–64, and over 65, as well as family density. These results suggest that household accompaniment patterns and age-related healthcare needs increase the frequency of such trips. In contrast, negative associations were observed between healthcare travel frequency and the share of the 6–17 age group, employment ratio, average number of cars per family, and the number of healthcare centers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"170 ","pages":"Pages 12-23"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144070837","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How emissions trading system affects liner ship disruption recovery","authors":"Shihao Li,&nbsp;Tingsong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study addresses the liner ship disruption recovery problem considering the emissions trading system, aiming to minimize the total cost of disruption recovery plans while ensuring compliance with CO₂ emission regulations. A mixed-integer programming model is constructed, integrating three operational-level recovery actions and tactical-level multiple time windows cooperation agreements, and a customized decomposition-based hybrid heuristic algorithm is developed to resolve the model efficiently. Extensive computational experiments are carried out to validate the effectiveness of the model and algorithm. The results show that different recovery actions should be selected based on the degree of delay, increasing the ratio and price of carbon emissions allowance can reduce carbon emissions but to a limited extent, and improving container handling speed also helps reduce costs and emissions. The managerial insights derived provide practical decision-making references for liner carriers to address disruptions and environmental regulatory challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 191-208"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shipping news sentiment as a predictor of iron ore freight rates: Hybrid evidence from lexicon-based analysis and threshold autoregression modelling","authors":"Yuting Gong ,&nbsp;Yongyuan Peng ,&nbsp;Luxuan Xu ,&nbsp;Kecai Chen ,&nbsp;Wenming Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate and timely predictions of shipping freight rates provide a crucial basis for market participants to enhance their decision making. To this end, this study proposes a hybrid approach that integrates language models (LMs) and lexicon-based methods to construct an innovative shipping sentiment index (SSI) for the iron ore shipping market. By mining 9034 iron ore-related shipping news headlines and their accompanying summaries from two major shipping websites covering the period from January 2011 to December 2023, the following main results are obtained: First, the SSI closely tracks the dynamics of iron ore freight rates on major routes, effectively capturing uncertainties triggered by unforeseen events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the threshold autoregression model reveals a nonlinear relationship between the SSI and iron ore freight rates, indicating that the positive correlation is more nuanced during relatively optimistic market conditions. Moreover, iron ore prices positively influence freight rates, with this effect being stronger in optimistic market conditions than in periods of pessimistic sentiment. Additionally, economic policy uncertainty in China has a positive impact on iron ore freight rates on the selected routes, regardless of the prevailing shipping sentiment. Third, when analyzed within the nonlinear threshold framework, the SSI effectively predicts iron ore freight rates in the out-of-sample forecasting analysis. These results have important implications for iron ore importers, enhancing their ability to manage production costs, ensuring financial stability, and increasing supply chain resilience. They also provide a sound basis for shipping market participants (e.g., shipowners, brokers, investors, and shipbuilders) to make informed decisions that can improve profitability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 178-190"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143937481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Timing of blockchain adoption under market acceptance uncertainty in a competitive shipping supply chain: Ex ante or ex post?","authors":"Huijie Li ,&nbsp;Jinwu Gao ,&nbsp;Xiang Li ,&nbsp;Wen He","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is natural to expect that blockchain technology would drive the growth and digitization of the shipping industry due to its unique advantages, but TradeLens, the blockchain platform pioneered by Maersk, was unexpectedly shut down. Some viewpoints attribute this closure of TradeLens to the market acceptance uncertainty of blockchain technology dominated by a shipping company. We therefore investigate two competitive shipping companies’ blockchain adoption timing under market acceptance uncertainty. If one shipping company decides to adopt the <em>ex post investment</em> (PI) strategy, it can delay investment until the market acceptance uncertainty of blockchain technology is resolved. Otherwise, the <em>ex ante investment</em> (AI) strategy is adopted. By considering four blockchain adoption cases including the simultaneous ex ante adoption case, the sequential adoption cases, as well as the simultaneous ex post adoption case, we find that the information gap leads to differences in the (expected) optimal decisions of two shipping companies among these cases. We also find by the equilibrium profits that the shipping company postponing the blockchain investment could gain an additional information value. Moreover, as the investment efficiency drops, two shipping companies’ additional investment value within four cases reduces while the waiting value of one shipping company adopting PI strategy in the sequential adoption cases increases. We further obtain two shipping companies’ equilibrium strategies and optimal strategies, suggesting that the simultaneous ex ante investment strategy is always not the optimal strategy under any conditions while the simultaneous ex post investment strategy can be the Pareto optimal strategy for two shipping companies given certain market acceptance uncertainty conditions. Finally, our study provides several important management insights for practitioners and policy recommendations for policymakers regarding blockchain technology adoption in the shipping industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 133-149"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring spatial impacts of transportation infrastructure on financial agglomeration: A moderating role of knowledge spillovers","authors":"Ke Lu,&nbsp;Yunlin Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the rapid development of economy and ongoing financial reform in China, the phenomenon of financial agglomeration has aroused considerable attention. Currently, the determinants for financial agglomeration have been extensively studied. However, there remains a dearth of research exploring the relationship between transportation infrastructure and financial agglomeration from the perspective of external factors. To better understand the impact of transportation infrastructure on financial agglomeration, this study considers knowledge spillovers as a moderating factor. An empirical analysis was conducted using data collected in China from 2003 to 2022. The Spatial Durbin Model was employed to analyze the spatial impact of transportation infrastructure on financial agglomeration. Moreover, the moderating effect of knowledge spillovers and heterogeneity across geographical regions and urban scales was investigated. The results indicate that: (1) The development of transportation infrastructure has been evidenced to promote financial agglomeration. (2) Knowledge spillovers, as a moderating variable, weakens the driving effect of transportation infrastructure on financial agglomeration. (3) Transportation infrastructure enhances financial agglomeration in eastern and large-scale regions. Conversely, in western and small-scale regions, its impact is not significant. The findings shed light on the understanding of relationship between transportation infrastructure and financial agglomeration, and provide practical insights for policymakers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 150-166"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diverging and merging of household and individual commuter flows in morning commute problem","authors":"Tao Wang ,&nbsp;Tao Wang ,&nbsp;Peng Liao ,&nbsp;Feng Cao ,&nbsp;Tie-Qiao Tang ,&nbsp;Donghong Ning","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The morning and evening peak hours warrant substantial academic investigation. The primary purposes of commuting during peak hours are typically for school and work. School locations often deviate from the primary home-to-work commuting corridors, thus leading to the diverging and merging of commuting flow. To investigate the traffic system, this study focused on the commuting system in a “triangle with a tail” network. This traffic system is complicated, and we analyzed it from the perspectives of traffic flow and travel behavior.</div><div>This study investigated the impact of school and company scheduling on commuters’ departure decisions and travel costs, considering various ratios of heterogeneous commuter demands. It derived the equilibrium travel patterns for both household and individual commuters during morning commutes within the network. We found that a Pareto improving strategy for the transportation system exists in some cases; and the capacity expansion paradox can be avoided with an appropriate staggering. When considering costs, governments can make decisions about whether or not to expand roads. These analyses and findings can shed light on the policy-making of the traffic system with household and individual commuters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 101-115"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143902035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Co-construction strategy of battery swapping stations and charging piles in China","authors":"Bingchun Liu,&nbsp;Xu Gao,&nbsp;Ying Wang ,&nbsp;Shunfan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of battery swapping stations (BSS) offers a significant opportunity to address infrastructure deficiencies and alleviate range anxiety, issues commonly associated with current charging piles. Therefore, understanding the requirements for the co-construction of BSS and charging piles is essential. This study employs a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory model, enhanced with an attention mechanism, to forecast the ownership of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in China from 2024 to 2030. Furthermore, the study explores potential scenarios concerning the standardization of the battery swapping model, the optimization of charging and swapping infrastructure, and the dual charging of battery-swap BEV, proposing co-construction strategies for both BSS and charging piles. The findings suggest that promoting the battery swapping model significantly reduces construction pressure on both charging and swapping infrastructure. By 2030, the maximum construction capacity for charging piles and BSS will reach 28.36 million and 62.44 thousand units, respectively. Additionally, the potential for dual charging behavior increases infrastructure demand, but expanding the proportion of fast charging piles can help mitigate this demand. Based on these results, the study introduces a forward-looking BSS strategy and provides policy recommendations for planners aiming to develop a long-term co-construction policy for BSS and charging piles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 56-73"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143912351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing technological-driven challenges and policies associated with electric vehicle (EV) adoption","authors":"Affiq A. Ghani ,&nbsp;Norulsamani Abdullah ,&nbsp;Kalidasan B ,&nbsp;R. Saidur ,&nbsp;A.K. Pandey","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.04.030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The concern over petroleum fuel consumption and global air pollution caused by the transportation sector has led to a delicate focus on electric vehicles (EVs) as a sustainable and efficient alternative. The EVs' ability to compete with internal combustion engine cars has been contentious. To accelerate the adoption of EV's globally it is vital to understand the current scenario of EV's, end-users’ perspective and the challenges faced by developing and underdeveloped countries. Worldwide numerous policies, several legislative incentives and guidelines have been implemented to hasten the adoption of EVs to attain carbon neutrality and address the issue of carbon emissions at the source. Amidst the initiatives taken, there are major issues to be sorted for smooth adoption of EVs. This review paper aims to provide a widespread understanding of the, a) technological challenges associated with EV adoption, b) need for diversified technology-related policies in EV adoption, and c) importance of creating awareness &amp; initiatives to meet international green targets. As far as technological challenges are concerned, this article comprehensively discusses and enumerates the author's viewpoint of battery range and life, charging infrastructure and grid integration, R&amp;D and design, as well as safety and reliability concerns. The technology-related policies cover the aspects of infrastructure development policy, regulations and standardization of EV technology and R&amp;D investment policies. By synthesizing current knowledge and highlighting important considerations, this review paper aims to contribute to the understanding of technological barriers in EVs, examine relevant global policy implementations, and the necessary steps for their widespread adoption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"169 ","pages":"Pages 167-177"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143924885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}