Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Electricity demand forecasting in green ports: Modelling and future research directions","authors":"Adrian Carrillo-Galvez ,&nbsp;Felipe do Carmo ,&nbsp;Tiago Soares ,&nbsp;Zenaida Mourão ,&nbsp;Ilia Ponomarev ,&nbsp;João Araújo ,&nbsp;Eduardo Bandeira","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, there has been growing attention on the decarbonisation of maritime transport, particularly regarding the landside operations at ports. This has spurred the development and implementation of strategies and policies aimed at enhancing the environmental performance of port activities. Among these strategies, the electrification of port infrastructure is emerging as a potential industry standard for the future. However, there remains a significant gap in understanding the patterns of electricity consumption in ports and how to forecast them accurately. To address this gap, this paper provides a review of the current literature on electricity demand in ports, examining practical applications, methodologies employed, and their key limitations. The findings indicate that, despite its importance in supporting the electrification process, electricity demand forecasting in ports has not received substantial attention in either industry or academic research, and there are no clearly established policies to support port authorities in obtaining the necessary data. Finally, the paper outlines potential directions for future research and how port authorities or local government agencies can contribute to these efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 1012-1024"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144714567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Prompting pickup from parcel lockers: A reward-punishment strategy","authors":"Yang Wang ,&nbsp;Ruixue Yang ,&nbsp;Yu Xiao ,&nbsp;Jianhui Lai ,&nbsp;José Holguín-Veras","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Parcel lockers can effectively enhance last-mile delivery by providing carriers and posts automation and parcel consolidation in the face of growing parcel volumes. However, a backlog can develop when parcels remain in lockers for extended periods. To address this issue, we propose a reward-punishment strategy to incentivize prompt parcel collection. A survey was conducted to evaluate incentives in the form of monetary rewards and overtime charges. Using the survey data, a Cox Proportional Hazard Regression model was developed to analyze parcel survival in lockers over time. Results indicate that the proposed strategy significantly encourages prompt collection of parcels. However, overtime charges can act as a double-edged sword, prompting early collection yet potentially dissuading some customers. To model customer retention while considering the impact of overtime charges, a Binary Logit choice model was developed. Additionally, a two-step clustering method was employed to categorize customers based on their sensitivity to the proposed strategy. Elderly retired customers purchasing daily necessities were the most responsive, while young non-regular employees and students showed minimal response. These models and associated findings can facilitate the development of more practical incentive implementations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 986-995"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144702969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extending UTAUT2 for elderly high-speed rail adoption: Incorporating novel health and transportation independence moderators in an urban-rural comparative analysis","authors":"Natcha Limpasirisuwan ,&nbsp;Thanapong Champahom ,&nbsp;Adisorn Dangbut ,&nbsp;Fareeda Watcharamaisakul ,&nbsp;Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao ,&nbsp;Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study extends the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2) by incorporating health status and transportation independence as novel moderators to examine high-speed rail adoption intentions among elderly populations in Thailand. Using structural equation modeling on survey data from 2936 elderly respondents (1470 urban and 1493 rural), this study investigated the determinants of adoption intentions and their variations across geographical contexts. Results reveal that social influence, facilitating conditions, and effort expectancy are the strongest predictors of behavioral intention in both urban and rural settings, while performance expectancy and price value showed non-significant effects, challenging conventional UTAUT2 assumptions. The extended model explains 65.0 % of variance in urban contexts versus 51.5 % in rural contexts. Health status demonstrates significant moderating effects on multiple relationships, particularly in urban settings, while transportation independence shows minimal moderation. Age moderates several relationships primarily in urban contexts, whereas gender shows no significant moderating effects. Hedonic motivation significantly influences rural but not urban adoption intentions. These findings challenge universal assumptions about technology acceptance and highlight the importance of context-specific approaches for elderly transportation technology adoption. The study contributes to theory by validating an elderly-specific UTAUT2 extension and provides practical implications for developing targeted strategies to enhance high-speed rail adoption across diverse elderly populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 933-959"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144694481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Port ship congestion and Port-oriented cities air pollution: the role of machine learning models in transportation environmental governance","authors":"Miao Su ,&nbsp;Jiankun Li ,&nbsp;Woohyoung Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Port-oriented cities worldwide are facing significant challenges due to port congestion and environmental concerns. However, research quantifying the relationship between port congestion and air pollution in port towns is limited. This study used deep learning predictive models to examine the influence of port congestion on particulate matter (PM) levels within port-oriented cities. The study centered on Shanghai, a major Chinese port city, analyzing 30,590 records over six years (January 1, 2017, to December 30, 2022) on PM concentrations, meteorological conditions, and port congestion. This study evaluated three deep learning models (LSTM, BILSTM, and CNN-LSTM) for long-term time series forecasting using two datasets: one with air pollutants and meteorological data, and another adding port congestion data. Performance was assessed using MAE, MSE, and RMSE metrics. The results show that the CNN-LSTM models exhibit the best prediction performance and all models improve when port congestion data is included. This indicates that air pollution in port-oriented cities is influenced by port congestion dynamics. Specifically, This study elucidates the intricate relationship between port congestion and air pollution in port-oriented cities through machine learning modeling. These findings offer significant decision-making assistance for shipping businesses and policymakers regarding port-oriented cities strategic planning and environmental risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 896-915"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144678867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Passengers’ vertiport choices for integrated urban air mobility and airline services","authors":"Ying Zhao ,&nbsp;Yan Hu ,&nbsp;Tao Feng ,&nbsp;Anming Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vertiports are essential hubs for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) airport shuttles, however, passenger choice behavior in vertiports remains underexplored. In this paper, we conducted a stated choice experiment in Beijing and applied a mixed logit model with interaction effects to examine passengers’ heterogeneous choice preferences in the context of synchronized UAM and airline services. Results show passengers generally prefer small, nearby vertiports, integrated with public transport, and equipped with multiple facilities and services. Preferences vary notably among middle-income groups (100,000–200,000 CNY/year), and passengers with helicopter experience prefer less proximate vertiports due to noise and privacy concerns. Elasticity analyses underscore the critical influence of access distance, providing valuable insights for policymakers and UAM service providers in infrastructure planning and development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 960-969"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating parking load in geofenced bike-sharing systems: A case study of Xiamen Island","authors":"Xuxilu Zhang ,&nbsp;Lingqi Gu ,&nbsp;Francesc Soriguera ,&nbsp;Nan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geofenced bike-sharing systems (GFBSSs) offer flexibility and user convenience but face challenges from imbalances between Points of Interest (POI) distributions, parking capacity, and demand, resulting in varying degrees of parking pressure. This study uses the Parking Load Index (<span><math><mrow><mi>P</mi><mi>L</mi><mi>I</mi></mrow></math></span>), a metric to assess parking load and identify spatial–temporal imbalances. Utilizing multi-source data and spatiotemporal analysis, 134 overloaded parking fences on Xiamen Island were identified and classified into three distinct types during morning peak hours, each with unique characteristics. Finally, tailored strategies such as dynamic parking allocation, demand-responsive policies, and infrastructure improvements are proposed to address the challenges related to parking capacity. The paper aims to improve parking efficiency and enhance user experience, offering valuable insights to optimize bike-sharing systems within rapidly evolving urban transportation networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 838-852"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144663524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unraveling policy effects on airline networks in China: A temporal exponential random graph framework for slot control and route entry restrictions","authors":"Yue Hu ,&nbsp;Liang Dai ,&nbsp;Kurt Fuellhart ,&nbsp;Frank Witlox","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although extensive research has examined the impact of deregulation on the air transport market, relatively few studies have investigated how to advance further liberalization in markets still shaped by legacy regulatory policies. This study addresses that gap by focusing on China's domestic air transport market. Using a temporal exponential random graph model framework, we analyze the effects of regulatory policies on the evolution of airline networks. By incorporating both endogenous and exogenous effects, we analyze the differentiated impact of slot control policies and route entry restrictions across different types of carriers. Results show that slot control policies influence network development for all carrier categories, whereas route entry restrictions primarily constrain the network expansion of <em>Network-expansion</em> carriers. Moreover, these carriers encounter greater challenges when attempting to access slot-controlled airports than when navigating route entry barriers. The study concludes with policy recommendations to reduce these barriers to support more equitable and efficient network growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 882-895"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144678871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monitoring and evaluation of travel behaviour change in mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) trials: Insights from a longitudinal study","authors":"Nazam Ali ,&nbsp;Seda Sucu Sagmanli ,&nbsp;Djamila Ouelhadj ,&nbsp;Nima Dadashzadeh ,&nbsp;Lee Woods ,&nbsp;Graham Fletcher","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Travel behaviour change towards more sustainable modes of transport is required to achieve environmental sustainability. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) trials have been implemented in various cities over the past decade to reduce private car usage, and promote sustainability. Monitoring and evaluation (M&amp;E) is a key component in developing MaaS trials, as it enables a comprehensive understanding and analysis of the MaaS's impact on modal shift. Although the insights from various MaaS trials have been explored in the literature, studies on the travel behaviour change M&amp;E of these trials with longitudinal approaches were lacking. This paper proposes a M&amp;E approach employing the Differences-in-Differences (DiD) method and incorporating three Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), to monitor and evaluate the travel behaviour change after the launch of the MaaS app. It uses longitudinal (baseline and recall) data to analyse the impact of MaaS on travel behaviour change for its users compared to non-users. The application of the proposed DiD-based M&amp;E framework has been tested and validated on a real-world MaaS project with 887 MaaS users and 757 non-MaaS users. The results suggest that the private car use is reduced while public transport use increased for MaaS users, while for the non-MaaS users, the private car use is increased and public transport is decreased. Moreover, the DiD analysis showed that the impact of MaaS on the decrease in the private car and increase in public transport use is statistically significant. These findings and insights guide policymakers and transport practitioners in appraising the effectiveness of new MaaS systems, especially in car-dependent regions in the world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 996-1011"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144702970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Associations of proximity to metro stations with transport poverty: Spatial and temporal variations","authors":"Yun-Tuan Chang ,&nbsp;Jen-Jia Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work explores the associations of proximity to metro stations with transport poverty and their spatial and temporal variations. The study's observations are from the 1488 neighborhoods in the Taipei Metropolitan Area, Taiwan, covering data from 1996 to 2016. A transport poverty index, defined as the disparity between the economic deprivation index and the job accessibility index, is proposed to measure the transport poverty degree of a neighborhood. Panel data and linear regression models are applied to analyze the data. The results indicate the following: (1) Distance to metro stations is positively associated with the degree of transport poverty within the specific distance thresholds. (2) The positive relationships move downward as a whole over time with the increase in the number of metro stations. (3) The overall downward moves of positive relationships are decreasing with distances to metro stations in the short term but are increasing with distances to metro stations in the long term. These findings highlight that, when developing metro networks, local administrations should simultaneously promote accessibility plans in areas distant from metro services and prioritize improvements in transit and motorcycle accessibility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 853-866"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144663525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dependence or preference? Navigating public transit loyalty across heterogeneous levels of transit dependence","authors":"Sina Asgharpour,&nbsp;Sajad Askari,&nbsp;Abolfazl (Kouros) Mohammadian","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The remarkable decline in transit ridership in recent years, further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has compelled transit agencies to enhance rider satisfaction to retain transit users. However, the adoption of general policies may be ineffective due to the heterogeneous nature of user perceptions that shape transit loyalty. Specifically, service quality factors might vary markedly among captive riders and those who prefer to use transit, including choice riders and voluntary riders. In this study, we investigated the transit dependence-based segmentation in the analysis of transit satisfaction and loyalty. Employing survey data from Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) riders collected in 2022, we aimed to: (1) examine the significance of heterogeneity in transit satisfaction and loyalty across captive, choice, and voluntary riders, and (2) assess the implications of overall approach versus dependence-based segmentation approach. We developed a Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) and conducted Permutation Multi-group Analysis (PMGA) to assess the hypothesized heterogeneity among three rider groups. Additionally, we introduced Importance-Performance Deviation Index (IPDI) to rank the service quality aspects for improvement policies specific to each group. The proposed metric highlights the variations of prioritized factors for improvement across rider groups. Our analysis reveals that while cleanliness is the most unsatisfactory aspect for all rider groups, choice riders exhibit more dissatisfaction with cleanliness. Further, reliability, particularly in terms of waiting times and service arrivals, does not meet voluntary riders’ expectations. Moreover, comfort factors are critically unsatisfactory for captive riders, especially at stations and in-vehicle, compared to other two rider groups. These findings showcase the ramifications of adopting general policies instead of group-specific strategies. The study provides transit agencies with actionable insights to develop informed and targeted retention strategies, ultimately enhancing transit users’ satisfaction and loyalty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"171 ","pages":"Pages 821-837"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}