Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"From hero to zero: Barriers to achieving IATA’s 2050 sustainability targets","authors":"Xiaoqian Sun ,&nbsp;Stefan Baumeister ,&nbsp;Luis Martin-Domingo ,&nbsp;Ian Douglas ,&nbsp;Marina Efthymiou ,&nbsp;Mark Hansen ,&nbsp;Julia Herget ,&nbsp;Katsuya Hihara ,&nbsp;Xibei Jia ,&nbsp;Ang Li ,&nbsp;Kam Hung Ng ,&nbsp;Mikio Takebayashi ,&nbsp;Yahua Zhang ,&nbsp;Sebastian Wandelt","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103830","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103830","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable operations have become essential for mitigating the environmental impact of air transport and ensuring the long-term viability of the industry. Accordingly, achieving existing sustainability goals is crucial for reducing carbon emissions within the sector. This study presents an evaluation of the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) ambitious sustainability goals for 2050, focusing on the potential challenges and barriers that may impede their successful realization. Through a comprehensive survey circulated among carefully selected air transport sustainability researchers attending the Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference 2025, our study gathers independent academic expert perspectives on feasibility of IATA’s commitments. The survey, structured around six categories, namely estimation of goal completion, economic barriers, technological challenges, policy issues, industry resistance, and public factors — elicits expert opinions on the likelihood of achieving the stated sustainability targets. The survey reveals significant skepticism about achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with economic barriers, technological challenges, and regulatory issues being major hurdles. High costs, slow tech adoption, and lack of global regulatory frameworks are other concerns. By leveraging the expertise of air transport researchers, this study offers a unique and authoritative perspective on the challenges facing the aviation industry’s sustainability efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103830"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Is electric mobility effective in smoothing the electricity load diagram? Evidence from Europe","authors":"Sónia Almeida Neves,&nbsp;Diogo Santos Pereira,&nbsp;António Cardoso Marques","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper focuses on the impact of electric mobility, namely battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), on peak, intermediate, and valley levels of electricity demand. Monthly data from January 2018 to August 2023, for 26 European countries was used. A threshold model was applied because the impact on electricity demand of BEV and PHEV adoption (sales of new EVs) depends on their penetration level (the number of EVs already in circulation). The results of these models showed that BEV adoption initially decreases electricity demand in peak periods, but that this effect diminishes as the number of BEVs in circulation increases. BEV adoption was also found to increase valley and intermediate electricity demand levels up to the first threshold of BEV penetration, but above this, sales of BEVs reduced demand in these periods. Regarding PHEVs, when their level of penetration is low, new sales actually increase peak, intermediate, and valley electricity consumption. Overall, this paper found evidence that, with the right policies, BEVs and PHEVs can smooth the electricity load diagram and, in so doing, increase the economic efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103844"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From Operations to Policy: Integrating the CII Index into Analytical Frameworks for Airline Decarbonization","authors":"Metehan Atay","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aviation industry, contributing 2–3 % of global CO₂ emissions annually, faces growing pressure to balance environmental responsibilities with economic performance. With the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) net-zero carbon goal by 2050, airlines must address challenges such as carbon tax policies, fleet optimization, and consumer affordability. This study examines the impact of market-based emission policies—carbon taxes, trading systems, and offset mechanisms—on Full-Service Carriers (FSCs) and Low-Cost Carriers (LCCs). Findings reveal that LCCs, with high efficiency and short-haul operations, adapt better to regulations than FSCs, which face higher costs due to long-haul networks. Strategies like fleet modernization, increased load factors, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are explored as pathways to mitigating passenger cost burdens while ensuring compliance. Methodologically, the study employs a Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model alongside a decoupling analysis to assess the environmental and financial performance of airlines. Highlighting the importance of tailored strategies, this study provides actionable insights and emphasizes collaboration between governments, airlines, and consumers to achieve sustainable growth in aviation. In addition, the study adapts the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) from the maritime sector to aviation, providing a novel metric for assessing carbon efficiency. Integrating CII with LMDI and profitability indicators enables a more transparent evaluation of airline sustainability and offers policymakers a robust tool for emission management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103841"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Revealing the built environment impacts on curbside freight parking demand using a deep generalized additive modeling framework","authors":"Jishi Wu ,&nbsp;Tao Feng ,&nbsp;Peng Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing intensity of urban activity has heightened conflicts between commercial vehicles curbside parking and limited road space. However, limited knowledge exists on how the urban built environment affects curbside freight parking, which restricts effective policymaking. This study investigates the spatial patterns of curbside freight parking demand using large-scale commercial vehicle trajectory data and quantifies the impacts of the built environment using an interpretable generalized additive neural network (IGANN) model. Unlike black-box models, IGANN achieves superior interpretability, reliability, and predictive accuracy. Results show that spatial heterogeneity in freight curbside parking demand is pronounced in high-density cities, where intensive development amplifies parking needs and worsens congestion. These findings highlight the importance of adopting spatially differentiated development strategies to balance freight operations with competing curb users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103833"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fueling the future: A comparative analysis of sustainable aviation fuel pathways","authors":"Shawei He ,&nbsp;Kangyin Dong ,&nbsp;Meng Hou ,&nbsp;Huan Song ,&nbsp;Ting Zhu ,&nbsp;Ang Li ,&nbsp;Changmin Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) have been increasingly utilized in the aviation industry, the comparison among the existing types of SAF in terms of their production costs and the efficacy of mitigating emissions has become important. This investigation aims to assess the trade-off between cost increases and emission reductions throughout the SAF lifecycle. A stepwise multiple linear regression model is utilized to forecast the production costs associated with 29 distinct SAF production pathways. Furthermore, an all-encompassing model has been developed to determine the costs associated with carbon mitigation over time. The findings demonstrate that the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway is most cost-effective, with the lowest production cost pegged at $1.45 per liter. In contrast, the carbon mitigation cost for the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) pathway is the most favorable, calculated at $459 per ton of CO2 equivalent. This study extends current cost analyses to the prediction of future production expenses, highlighting the significance of temporal variations in mitigation costs. The findings provide customized recommendations, such as for developing SAF with different pathways with uneven priorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103843"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compliance decisions of bulker shipping companies under various emission reduction policies","authors":"Lixian Fan ,&nbsp;Jingbo Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global pressure to reduce air pollutants has positioned the bulk shipping segment—which accounts for nearly half of global seaborne trade—as a strategic focus for decarbonization. This study investigates the choice between retrofitting existing vessels and investing in new-build fuel technologies by analyzing 12,436 bulk carriers from the Clarksons World Fleet Register. Using a Nested Logit model, we capture distinct substitution patterns between retrofittable and non-retrofittable compliance options, providing novel fleet-level evidence on how shipping companies respond to evolving emission policies. The empirical results support a hierarchical decision-making process between retrofits and new-build technologies. We model simultaneous adoption decisions across six major compliance options: scrubbers, LNG systems, alternative fuels, hybrid propulsion, Eco-design enhancements (Eco), and energy-saving technologies (EST). Key findings reveal that vessel characteristics, market conditions, and fuel prices significantly influence compliance strategies. Specifically, larger vessels and those constructed in European or American shipyards exhibit a greater propensity for retrofitting, whereas high Baltic Dry Index values discourage retrofits due to competitive expansion incentives. Bunker prices strongly stimulate the adoption of scrubbers, Eco-designs, and EST, but have limited effect on hybrid systems and alternative fuels such as LNG, which are primarily constrained by infrastructural and technological barriers. Evidence also indicates strategic interdependence: rivals' capacity expansion reduces individual companies’ incentives for retrofit investments. Our findings suggest that companies prioritize cost-effective retrofits in high fuel-price environments, while adoption of alternative fuels remains reliant targeted policy support. We conclude that effective decarbonization requires differentiated strategies: promoting mature, cost-efficient technologies in the near term, while accelerating infrastructure development and incentives for alternative fuels to facilitate long-term transition. These insights offer valuable guidance for both shipping companies and policymakers in promoting sustainable shipping.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103828"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Airports and regional inequality: Evidence from China","authors":"Wenbin Zuo ,&nbsp;Fanglin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investment in transportation infrastructure is a critical strategy for narrowing regional development disparities. As critical nodes in the global transportation network, airports possess unique advantages in bridging these disparities. Utilizing night light data, we construct indicators of regional inequality and conduct a longitudinal analysis of airports in China from 2000 to 2022, empirically assessing the significant impact of airports on alleviating county-level inequality. Our findings reveal that airports reduce county inequality by an average of 0.009 units, a conclusion supported by a series of robustness tests. Also, airports with high throughput play a more significant role. Moreover, our results illustrate complex interrelationships between airports and existing transportation infrastructure, demonstrating substitutability with railways and complementarity with roads. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that airports exert a more pronounced effect on reducing inequality in non-central cities and in areas with higher unemployment rates. Finally, our research establishes that airports help mitigate regional inequality by fostering entrepreneurship, enhancing employment in the tertiary sector, and attracting foreign investment. The research offers valuable insights for policymakers regarding the comprehensive planning of new transportation facilities and the optimization of transportation networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103829"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) life cycle emissions and cost of electric two-wheelers: Policy implications for sustainable mobility in India","authors":"Debjani Panda,&nbsp;Nezamuddin,&nbsp;M. Manoj","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103823","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103823","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transition to alternative energy-driven vehicles has emerged as a key strategy in mitigating climate change and reducing carbon emissions within the transportation sector. In India, the adoption of electric two-wheelers (E2-Ws), including E-scooters and E-motorcycles, has accelerated in response to government initiatives and rising consumer demand. This study assesses the sustainability of E2-Ws by analyzing greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle emissions and life cycle costs (LCC) across various models of E2-Ws available in the Indian market. A cluster analysis classified E2-W models into distinct groups, followed by a detailed evaluation of GHG emissions and costs for representative models within each cluster. Results indicate that, under current policy frameworks, the total GHG emissions per vehicle across all models range from 3690.5 to 6668.73 kg-CO₂ eq. The LCC of evaluated models ranges from ₹ 1.14/km to ₹ 3.05/km, revealing that tangible costs significantly influence the overall cost of ownership for the evaluated E2-W models. A sensitivity analysis was also performed, accounting for factors such as variations in the electricity generation mix, average daily driving distance, and discount rates. This analysis highlights the economic robustness of E2-W ownership and emphasizes the importance of targeted subsidies and clean energy integration. The study provides actionable insights to future policymaking, industry development, and academic research to support sustainable electric mobility adoption in India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103823"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public acceptance towards expanding hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in South Korea: A monetary assessment based on willingness to pay","authors":"Min-Ki Hyun ,&nbsp;So-Yoon Kwak ,&nbsp;Seung-Hoon Yoo","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103831","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103831","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The government plans to increase the number of hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks (HTs) to 30,000 by 2040 reducing the number of internal combustion engine HTs in South Korea. The plan will abate CO₂ emissions in the mobility sector by 8.74 million tons. This study seeks to assess public acceptance of the plan by applying contingent valuation (CV) and collecting data on household willingness to pay (WTP). To this end, a sample of 1000 households was surveyed through one-on-one interviews by trained interviewers in 2024. A yearly household income tax was used as the payment vehicle. A spike model to reflect a WTP of 0 was applied to the data. The average annual WTP per household was obtained as KRW 3121 (USD 2.28) from 2024 to 2033, securing statistical significance. The national present value of it was worth KRW 572.4 billion (USD 418.4 million) when applying a social discount of 4.5 %. As of 2024, the present value of the national WTP and the carbon credit price were found to be KRW 65,465 (USD 47.85) and KRW 9245 (USD 6.76) per ton of CO₂, respectively. The former is much greater than the latter. Thus, the execution of the plan is socially profitable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103831"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145270075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling the inequality and embodied carbon emissions of China's battery electric vehicles across life cycles by using a MRIO-based LCA model","authors":"Xudong Yuan ,&nbsp;Lien-Chieh Lee ,&nbsp;Yi Zhu ,&nbsp;Yuan Wang ,&nbsp;Hongyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Han Zheng ,&nbsp;Cristhian Chicaiza-Ortiz ,&nbsp;Ziguo Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.103827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China dominates the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market, contributing 60 % of global sales. However, the rapid expansion of BEV has raised global carbon emissions through supply chains. This study adopted the Multi-Regional Input-Output-based Life-Cycle Assessment (MRIO-based LCA) model to evaluate the embodied carbon emissions across all BEV life cycle stages, including manufacturing, driving, battery replacing, and scrapping phases. Furthermore, the Gini coefficient was adopted to reveal the inequality of global carbon emissions induced by each life cycle stage of BEV in China. The results indicate that BEV generated 101 million tons of carbon emissions, with manufacturing phase accounting for 53 %. The scrapping stage is indicated as the main driver of global carbon emission inequality across the BEV life cycle. While BEV eliminate tailpipe emissions, their “zero-emission” potential remains constrained by decarbonization of power supply. Findings provide a scientific basis for formulating equitable emission reduction policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103827"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145223103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}