Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Driving A-loan: Automobile debt, neighborhood race, and the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Evelyn Blumenberg ,&nbsp;Fariba Siddiq ,&nbsp;Samuel Speroni ,&nbsp;Jacob L. Wasserman","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>COVID-19 altered travel patterns in the U.S. Studies have analyzed the effect of the pandemic on travel mode, including working from home, but few have focused on automobile ownership—a relationship with potentially long-term consequences for accessibility, household budgets and debt, and policy efforts to meet climate goals.</p><p>To understand the association between the pandemic and automobile ownership, we rely on a unique credit panel dataset from Experian and examine three different automobile loan-related outcome measures: annualized growth rate of new automobile loan balances, average new loan size, and the number of new loans. We focus specifically on changes across loans in neighborhoods by race/ethnicity, hypothesizing larger increases in automobile debt in Black and Latino/a neighborhoods, where workers are less likely to be able to telework. The annualized growth rate of new automobile loans increased during the pandemic across all neighborhoods by race/ethnicity, increasing most rapidly in Latino/a neighborhoods. Controlling for other factors, loan <em>size</em> increased similarly across neighborhoods by race/ethnicity. The increase in automobile lending in Latino/a neighborhoods, therefore, likely was explained by a significant uptick in the <em>number</em> of new loans.</p><p>The growth in automobile lending during the pandemic was potentially prompted by pandemic-induced changes in the need for automobiles and facilitated by an expanded social safety net. As the pandemic and its various forms of public financial assistance recede, the findings underscore the importance of ongoing assistance in enabling automobile ownership or shared access among households with limited means whose livelihoods depend on the access that vehicles provide.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 321-330"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24002038/pdfft?md5=3719ddcd1566ea381ad59614661c66a1&pid=1-s2.0-S0967070X24002038-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141636795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mechanisms and implications of autonomous vehicle market penetration: Insights from a Markov forecasting model","authors":"Liming Zhang ,&nbsp;Xuejiao Yao ,&nbsp;Yao Xiao ,&nbsp;Yingxin Zhang ,&nbsp;Ming Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Due to the rapid evolution of autonomous driving technology and the complexity of market penetration mechanisms, establishing a reliable quantitative research approach for measuring autonomous vehicle (AV) penetration and effectively validating forecasted outcomes poses significant challenges. To address this issue, this paper overcomes data limitations by starting from the perspective of Chinese automotive market. It introduces a quantifiable Markov forecasting model that establishes the link between transition probabilities and penetration influencing factors. Through a penetration network, it visually represents the correlation and evolutionary states of AVs. Building upon the model, a framework for data quantification and analysis is formed. By quantifying model indicators with market data such as car performance and historical sales, the network parameters and transition probabilities are continuously updated in real-time. This drives the model to output short-term forecasts for AV penetration in the automotive market. In addition, we devise a two-stage simulation algorithm to accomplish parameter calibration and model validation. Through validation and comparative analysis, it is observed that, compared to direct learning from historical data, our model can more accurately forecast real market penetration trends. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis experiments on market strategies indicate that, compared to technical investment, the market exhibits a higher sensitivity to price adjustments. A strategy combination of increased technical investment in high-level vehicles and judiciously raising prices proves more advantageous for intelligent transformation in the automotive sector than a singular strategy. Additionally, as the AV market evolves, the sensitivity to favorable strategies will gradually increase. Therefore, the developmental stage of the market is a crucial factor for both car companies and investors to consider. The insights gleaned from this paper offer actionable guidance for policymakers and automotive corporations in shaping future market strategies, thereby fostering the continued growth of autonomous driving technologies within the industry.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"156 ","pages":"Pages 43-61"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141712131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of opening the Arctic Northeast Passage on China's carbon emissions","authors":"Laike Yang,&nbsp;Miaomiao Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The increase in shipping along Arctic routes has resulted in an increasing need for the environmental effects of shipping to be considered. Existing studies on the environmental impact of Arctic routes have focused mainly on shipping operations and have paid little attention to the dynamic features of opening new shipping routes. In light of the continuing retreat of Arctic sea ice, this study aimed to predict changes in China's CO₂ emissions from a production perspective via scenarios of the opening of the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP) in different future years (2025, 2030, 2035). A shipping cost model was first developed to calculate the changes in shipping costs resulting from commercial use of the NEP. Then, an energy-environmental version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E) model and the GTAP-E 10.0 database were used to simulate the changes in CO₂ emissions that may arise from the economic adjustments to the opening of the NEP. The driving factors and possible mechanisms of the environmental effects of the NEP were analyzed based on the simulation results. The re-simulation for the environmental effects of opening the NEP taking emission control policies into account was performed. The findings showed that the opening of the NEP would increase global CO₂ emissions. This effect would gradually increase over time. For China, opening the NEP would initially reduce short- and medium-term CO₂ emissions owing to upgrades of sectoral structure, while ultimately elevating emissions in the long run due to a large expansion in trade and the economy. The economic growth driven by commercial use of the NEP would tend to optimize the Chinese sectoral and energy structure in the short run. Notably, emission control policies would markedly affect the aforementioned environmental outcomes of opening the NEP.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 242-254"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141582481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"IMPReSS: A comprehensive method to classify MaaS systems","authors":"Mauricio Orozco-Fontalvo ,&nbsp;André Soares Lopes ,&nbsp;David Vale ,&nbsp;Filipe Moura","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Mobility as a Service (MaaS) has the potential to improve urban mobility by reducing car ownership and promoting multimodal transport through a single mobility app that provides trip planners, booking, ticketing, and payment for different modes and bundles. However, not all existing MaaS (or potential MaaS) systems provide a fully integrated system. Several authors have proposed different methodologies to assess MaaS integration. However, these approaches have some limitations regarding the scalability or characterization of the systems, making it hard to compare between them, as the current approaches are all incremental. In this work, we propose a new method called IMPReSS, a binary coding approach that assesses several dimensions of MaaS: Information, Multimodality, Payment, Reservation, Subscription, and Societal goals. It allows proper classification and comparison of different systems, using the societal goals as a cornerstone for its evaluation. Also, we propose a complementary scoring system based on the IMPReSS topology. This qualitative and quantitative methodology will allow practitioners and researchers to characterize, identify, and adequately assess transportation services and their potential to become a fully integrated MaaS system. Our results show that mature MaaS systems with public authorities involved, and some often excluded from MaaS discussion systems are ranked higher, while some wrongly called MaaS apps are ranked at the bottom. In summary, it assesses systems from a different and flexible perspective.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 234-241"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24002014/pdfft?md5=dcab71d3b7cc8053fc7d6f367a10fb6e&pid=1-s2.0-S0967070X24002014-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141582480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating Non-CO2 climate impact considerations in air traffic management: Opportunities and challenges","authors":"Fateme Baneshi,&nbsp;María Cerezo-Magaña,&nbsp;Manuel Soler","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the potential for mitigating the non-CO₂ climate impact induced by air traffic operations at the network scale. Due to the spatiotemporal dependency of non-CO₂ climate impact, aircraft trajectory planning emerges as an operational strategy to mitigate their corresponding effects. However, trajectory planning without considering the interactions between flights is inadequate when studying the actual climate impact mitigation potential. Indeed, meeting climatically oriented aerial traffic requires a holistic view of different aspects of adopting climate-optimal trajectories. In this study, we aim to assess the network-scale effects of full 4D climate-friendly aircraft trajectories. Different indicators are employed to assess air traffic safety, manageability, cost-efficiency, and the environmental impact of optimized routes. Our findings suggest that while optimized trajectories can potentially reduce climate impact, they introduce significant challenges related to air traffic safety, complexity, and demand, especially in sectors in proximity to climate hotspots. These insights highlight the need to develop an advanced mechanism enabling a safe and efficient air traffic management system with minimal climate impact.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 274-286"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24001860/pdfft?md5=3ca90018e07172730feab6aa243cf24f&pid=1-s2.0-S0967070X24001860-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141622959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sustainable Mobility Guarantee: Developing the concept from a transport planning perspective","authors":"Takeru Shibayama,&nbsp;Barbara Laa","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, we develop the concept of a “Sustainable Mobility Guarantee”. We first review existing “Mobility Guarantees”, which are rather motivated by socioeconomic interests than environmental sustainability and classify them. Based on this assessment, we define a Sustainable Mobility Guarantee, which extends existing approaches with environmental interests. It is an emerging concept in policymaking to ensure a certain level of mobility without the need for private cars - particularly in rural areas - but it is still in its infancy and lacks clear definitions. The concept embraces the idea of Classical Mobility Guarantees while seeking to enable and promote the use of non-automobile modes for everyday travels for everyone, not only for specific trip purposes like commuting, nor for specific target groups like the elderly. We then discuss the practical implementation and financial feasibility. Implementation is possible through programmatic or regulatory approaches, which may serve as a potential transitional basis for legal regulation. At least in developed countries, implementing mobility services realizing a Sustainable Mobility Guarantee is deemed financeable, given that financial instruments now subsidizing automobile use are shifted towards implementation of the guarantee, without being detrimental to the economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 287-299"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24001999/pdfft?md5=3c32a59ad37c715830b3c4440f3977c7&pid=1-s2.0-S0967070X24001999-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141622960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring reference-dependency in route switching behavior on intercity travel: Endowment effect and disparities between willingness to pay and willingness to accept","authors":"Sunghoon Jang ,&nbsp;Doosun Hong ,&nbsp;Yeonwoo Jung ,&nbsp;Chungwon Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study explores asymmetric preferences in route switching behavior on intercity travel. A reference-dependent travel choice model reflecting the endowment effect is empirically compared with the classical symmetric travel choice model to investigate the significance of the reference-dependency. Based on the application to stated preference data, our results reveal that the reference-dependent travel choice model outperforms the classical symmetric travel choice model in route switching decision, indicating the significant disparities between WTA and WTP. It implies that policy making based on the results of the classical symmetric model assuming equivalent WTA and WTP could lead to the overestimation of switching demand. Furthermore, our results show that drivers are more heterogeneous in terms of WTA than WTP. Moreover, our applications of the latent class mixed logit structure indicate that most of the responded drivers show reference-dependency in route switching decision. Our findings in this study are essential in transport network policy making.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 224-233"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141582485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatial effects of carbon pricing on transport equity","authors":"Stephan Keuchel,&nbsp;David Lohrmann","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.07.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>There is an ongoing process that greenhouse gas emissions of transport will be incorporated in the European Emissions Trading System. The cap-and-trade approach will result in substantial price increases for fossil fuels which will affect affordability of the transport systems. Within this paper the regressive effect on car-owning households is described in different area categories of the urban and rural region in Germany. Equal-per-household redistribution of the carbon revenue could reverse the regressive effect into a progressive effect. However, there is substantial variation within the different economic status groups leaving notable shares of households with a very low economic status without a positive net transfer. This share will be lowest in the metropolises of the urban region and highest in small-sized cities/village areas of the urban and rural region. Particularly in the latter area categories, these households may need temporary mobility allowances due to limited abatement options. Despite the environmental bonus, electric car-owning households still belong to groups of higher economic status, and public transport supply is limited, particularly in the small-sized cities/village areas of the urban and rural region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 255-263"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24002002/pdfft?md5=2d7116efab5f94e5eb21f3d4940d7633&pid=1-s2.0-S0967070X24002002-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141595076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A quantified planning method of local public transport services for expanding residents’ activity opportunities","authors":"Hideyuki Kita ,&nbsp;Satoshi Komoda ,&nbsp;Rizumu Ozaki","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The purpose of public transport is to expand activity opportunities of residents. Many public transport planning methods focus on the needs of residents. However, residents can adapt to the environment and form limited needs in areas with low public transport service levels, such as rural areas. Therefore, it is important to focus on activity opportunities (various states of people (being) and actions (being able)) rather than needs. The authors constructed a method for local public transport planning that focuses on activity opportunities; however, the variables and solutions of the model were abstract and thus did not reach the stage of practical application. Therefore, this study aimed to put into practical use a supporting method for local public transport planning. This method consists of a “measurement model for activity opportunity,” in which a given bus service and the ability to use it are variables, and an “evaluation model for planning alternatives” that incorporates a social relationship function and disparity principle. Through a case analysis in a rural area to which this method was applied, its usefulness was verified, and it was confirmed that it can contribute to public transport planning to increase activity opportunities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"159 ","pages":"Pages 284-296"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141716990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Airline stock market performance and political relations: A cross-quantilogram analysis of Chinese and US carriers","authors":"Yifei Cai ,&nbsp;Yahua Zhang ,&nbsp;Yanrui Wu ,&nbsp;Tsangyao Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.06.025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study focuses on examining the quantile dependence and directional predictability between airline stock returns and various political variables, including the US-China political relations, geopolitical risks, and partisan conflicts. To achieve these goals, a novel cross-quantilogram method is employed. The findings reveal that directional predictability is more pronounced when airline stock returns and the political environment experience extreme conditions. In addition, the US partisan conflicts index exhibits a more substantial influence on the dependence structure than the indexes of Sino-US political relations and geopolitical risks. Moreover, similarities are observed in the behavior of US airline stock returns given partisan conflicts and geopolitical risks. Finally, policy implications are provided.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"155 ","pages":"Pages 124-149"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24001884/pdfft?md5=1924ef2728a8aaa94302d5dd9ed85c96&pid=1-s2.0-S0967070X24001884-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141542417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}