Transport Policy最新文献

{"title":"Comparing Electric Vehicle Adoption Intentions Across Vehicle Types in Thailand: An Extended UTAUT2 Model with Government Participation","authors":"Thanapong Champahom ,&nbsp;Panuwat Wisutwattanasak ,&nbsp;Dissakoon Chonsalasin ,&nbsp;Chamroeun Se ,&nbsp;Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao ,&nbsp;Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite Thailand's ambitious goal to transform 30% of its total automotive production to electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030, the adoption rate remains low due to various segment-specific barriers. This study investigates the factors influencing EV adoption intentions across different vehicle segments in Thailand by integrating the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2) with government participation factors. Using data from 3770 respondents across five regions, the study employs structural equation modeling to analyze adoption patterns among passenger cars, pick-up trucks, and SUVs. The findings reveal distinct adoption patterns across segments: passenger cars are primarily influenced by Price Value (β = 0.262) and Effort Expectancy (β = 0.179); pick-up trucks show strong Performance Expectancy effects (β = 0.504) but negative Social Influence (β = −0.366); and SUVs demonstrate the strongest Performance Expectancy impact (β = 0.699) with a notable negative Price Value effect (β = −0.386). Government participation maintains consistent positive influence across all segments (β ranging from 0.101 to 0.153). Based on these findings, the study recommends a three-phase policy implementation framework emphasizing segment-specific approaches: urban-centric initiatives for passenger cars, commercial viability focus for pick-up trucks, and premium service emphasis for SUVs. This research contributes to EV adoption literature by demonstrating how adoption factors vary significantly across vehicle segments in emerging markets, challenging the one-size-fits-all approach to EV promotion. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and manufacturers in tailoring their strategies to different vehicle segments, particularly in emerging markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 408-435"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transition of multimodal transport network under different carbon price scenarios","authors":"Chuanzhong Yin ,&nbsp;Lingyong Zeng ,&nbsp;Xiaowen Fu ,&nbsp;Meisu Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Carbon pricing affects the transportation strategies of freight companies and consequently changes the structure of regional transport networks. By incorporating a carbon price into a weighted complex network, this study constructs a multimodal transport network coupled heterogeneously through road, rail, and waterway transportation modes based on the path utility. A particle swarm optimization–back propagation method is adopted to optimize the parameters of the multimodal transport path utility function. Complex network technology is used to analyze the node and network attributes, and the transition paths of the multimodal transport network under different carbon price scenarios are explored. The results show that increases in carbon prices promote the transition of transport modes from roadways to waterways and railways and that the importance of ports and railway stations increases. The structure of the multimodal transport network becomes more sparse, and the total carbon emissions decrease. Appropriate carbon prices can promote a balanced freight transportation structure, and reduce carbon emissions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"164 ","pages":"Pages 1-26"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143143225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling the interdependent relationship of motorcyclist injury severity and fault status: A recursive bivariate random parameters probit approach","authors":"Chamroeun Se ,&nbsp;Jeremy Woolley ,&nbsp;Thanapong Champahom ,&nbsp;Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao ,&nbsp;Tassana Boonyoo ,&nbsp;Ampol Karoonsoontawong ,&nbsp;Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Motorcycles constitute the primary mode of transportation in Thailand. However, their prevalence has created an acute safety crisis, with motorcyclists representing over 70% of road fatalities. While previous studies have examined either injury severity or fault status in isolation, the potential interdependency between these outcomes remains poorly understood. This study addresses this gap by investigating motorcycle crash injury severity through both direct effects and indirect effects mediated through riders' at-fault status. This study examines motorcycle crash injury severity by considering both direct effects on outcomes and indirect effects mediated through riders' at-fault status. Analyses were conducted for three timeframes—2017–2018, 2019, and 2020—to capture potential temporal instability. A recursive bivariate modeling framework with random parameters was adopted to address unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity between fault likelihood and crash severity outcomes, revealing key demographic, behavioral, and infrastructural predictors of fatal injuries. Findings indicate that younger riders, nighttime conditions, and high-risk behaviors (e.g., speeding, and alcohol use) increase the probability of being at fault. Meanwhile, factors such as being male, older, riding without a helmet, traveling against traffic, and riding at night significantly raise fatal injury risks. Although at-fault data provide valuable insights, they must be interpreted alongside roadway conditions, as Thailand's infrastructure offers limited protection for motorcyclists. Accordingly, this study recommends an integrated approach that combines improved infrastructure (e.g., motorcycle-friendly barriers and segregated lanes), robust education initiatives (targeting speed, helmet use, and alcohol awareness), and enhanced enforcement of traffic regulations. Implementing or enhancing licensing standards—such as a Graduated Licensing Scheme—can help curb risky behaviors and foster safer riding practices among young riders. These evidence-based recommendations can help policymakers develop more effective mitigation strategies to reduce the number of severe and fatal motorcycle-related crashes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 370-383"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do integrated mobility services have a future? The neglected role of non-mobility service providers: Challenges, and opportunities to extract sustainable transport outcomes","authors":"David A. Hensher,&nbsp;John D. Nelson","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For the last twenty years we have seen exponential growth in interest in developing ways in which we can offer to the market a unified multi-modal ecosystem that is so appealing that individuals would abandon their traditional ways of making travel choices. The new ways are guided by offers through a digital platform either through pay as you go or a subscription to a package that aligns with more sustainable travel behaviour activity. Branded as Mobility as a Service (MaaS), we have to date seen little success despite the continuing euphoria in many settings. This paper is the result of a significant amount of research and practice designed to find ways to give MaaS a chance in the market, reflecting on what we see as the key features of any future MaaS aspiration in respect of having a scalable impact on changing traveller behaviour that is aligned with sustainability goals and resulting in a viable business case with or without government subsidy. A particular focus is a recognition of the role that non-mobility service providers (NMSPs) can play in extending the stakeholder set that may well give MaaS a scalable future. Which we evidence from the findings of in-depth interviews with senior staff in a number of NMSP businesses. We also suggest that the generalisation away from multi-modality to multi-service supported by rewards and incentives that benefit non-transport providers, is likely to reveal a continuing role for uni-modal solutions that can also align well with a MaaS eco-system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 348-357"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Highway infrastructure and economic development: Measuring causal impacts of infrastructure investments using a three-step instrumental variable identification strategy","authors":"Victor Medeiros,&nbsp;Rafael S.M. Ribeiro,&nbsp;Pedro V.M. Amaral,&nbsp;Alexandre Q. Stein","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides an original third-step identification strategy using instrumental variables to evaluate the causal impact of highway investments on the local economy. First, we construct a novel national highway dataset at the municipal level in Brazil using the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) (2007–2018) as a case study. Second, we rely on some of the main infrastructure project costs to propose several cost-related instruments to correct for measurement errors in the road variables. Third, we circumvent the omitted variable bias from the non-random placement of roads by building instruments based on global cost minimization methods, historical plans, and the propensity of a municipality to receive highway interventions. Our identification strategy allows us to identify relevant biases coming from both measurement error and omitted variables. Our preferred estimates point out a reliable road elasticity in the range of 0.011–0.017. From this, we calculate a non-biased return rate to highway infrastructure of 21.3% in Brazil, proving the high rentability of those investments in the developing world context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 394-407"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bidding behavior on international airline routes: Exploring passenger psychology and strategies","authors":"Chung-Wei Kuo ,&nbsp;Rong-Chang Jou ,&nbsp;Yi-Chun Chiu","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examined \"seat bidding\" services that represent a distinctive method for upgrading airline seats. Such upgrade opportunities were traditionally reserved for VIP members with significant accumulated mileage or provided in cases of overbooking. In contrast, seat bidding enables airlines to offer unsold premium cabin seats (e.g., business class or premium economy) to passengers who have already purchased economy or premium economy tickets. This is done through a bidding competition that takes place before takeoff. The two formats for bidding include single and multiple bids, which permit bid amount modifications within specific time frames. This study simulated bidding scenarios by creating static (single bid) and dynamic (multiple bids) environments. Using the IHS Double-Hurdle model for estimation, the study seeks to understand respondents' willingness to pay and intentions to participate in seat bidding. The findings indicate that five variables—travel purpose, minimum bid price, price difference, economy class price, and premium cabin price—affected the respondents' decisions to participate in seat bidding. Notably, the three price-related variables (minimum bid price, price difference, and economy class price) illustrate that price was the primary factor affecting respondents’ consideration of this marketing activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 335-347"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Governing mobility hubs in the sustainable urban mobility transition: Dynamics of stability and change","authors":"Julia Hansel","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multimodality describes the combination of several transport modes and plays an essential role in the transition to sustainable urban mobility. Mobility hubs are physical locations where people change modes of transport and, therefore, bring forth multi-actor and multi-level governance arrangements. Mobility hubs are also a means to tackle the (re-)distribution of urban space and prioritization of environmentally friendly modes of transport. Nevertheless, research on sustainable mobility has identified an implementation gap in the sector. To date, academic literature on mobility hubs and multimodality has predominantly focused on design and user needs, integration into urban space, and environmental impact. In contrast, this article asks how the governance framework affects the implementation of mobility hub networks. The theoretical approach combines an analysis of governance arrangements with literature on smart mobility governance. This multifaceted analytical framework facilitates the examination of various dimensions and dynamics of the governance arrangements behind mobility hubs. Based on a qualitative content analysis of local policy documents and 12 semi-structured expert interviews with local and regional stakeholders, this study analyzes two case studies, in Munich and Vienna. The analysis reveals fragmented multi-level and multi-actor governance arrangements that require complex coordination processes and experimental governance. Parking management and shared mobility regulation are powerful municipal instruments for shaping mobility policies and installing mobility hubs. However, the dominant normative ideas of automobility and neoliberal logic of scarcity and behavioral change are hindering the pursuit of more ambitious changes in urban infrastructure. Mobility hubs can only fulfill their potential to add and connect mobility services if they simultaneously tackle the predominance of automobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 323-334"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the influence of built environment on pedestrian perceptions in colombian cities","authors":"María F. Paba-Larios ,&nbsp;Margareth Gutiérrez ,&nbsp;Raúl Ramos ,&nbsp;Víctor Cantillo","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Walking is a cornerstone of urban mobility in Latin America. Therefore, policies that improve pedestrians' perception of the built environment are crucial for policymakers and researchers alike. This paper investigates the influence of built environment factors on perceptions of <em>safety and comfort,</em> as well as pedestrians' preferences for sidewalk characteristics in two Colombian cities: Barranquilla and Santa Marta. For this purpose, we designed a novel survey that combines a choice experiment using real images of residential and commercial areas with a set of perception indicators to estimate hybrid choice models. The study's findings have significant practical implications for urban planning and policy development. In the commercial sector, sidewalk width is the most relevant attribute, followed by obstacles and, to a lesser extent, the presence of pedestrians. In residential sectors, the attractiveness of the environment, the presence of pedestrians, the condition of the sidewalk, and the existence of obstacles are highly relevant in explaining pedestrian demand behavior. The hybrid model indicates that sidewalk width and the presence of obstacles impact the perception of <em>comfort</em> and <em>safety</em> in both sectors. On the other hand, the presence of pedestrians has a positive effect on <em>safety</em> but a negative effect on <em>comfort</em>. These results show that physical attributes of the built environment influence pedestrian perceptions. Improvements in pedestrian infrastructure and the building environment are necessary to encourage walking as an active mode of transportation. They include promoting mixed land use, widening sidewalks, removing obstacles, and maintaining them to ensure continuity and good condition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 358-369"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Passenger arrival patterns and its implications for bus operation: The impact of schedule reading behavior on average waiting times at bus stops","authors":"Dongxu Chen ,&nbsp;Jie He ,&nbsp;Sitong Lin ,&nbsp;Zhongzhen Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Inaccuracies in measuring passenger waiting times at bus stops can lead to significant inefficiencies in optimizing bus operation schemes. To address this issue, this paper introduces a refined methodology aimed at accurately representing passenger waiting times and estimating the distributions of passenger arrival patterns at bus stops, with a focus on low-frequency suburban buses, considering their schedule-reading behaviors. First, we conducted stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) surveys to capture the factors affecting passengers’ arrival behaviors, revealing that bus vehicle headway and bus arrival punctuality (quantified as the standard deviation of arrival time deviations, SD-BATD) significantly influence passenger behavior. Second, we developed models to assess the proportions of schedule-reading passengers (SR-passengers) and their average waiting time (AWT) as well as standard deviation (SD-WT). By treating AWT and SD-WT as independent variables, we then characterized the arrival patterns of both SR-passengers and schedule-neglecting passengers (SN-passengers) using maximum extreme value and uniform distributions, respectively. Additionally, we conducted numerical experiments on bus headway optimization to validate the operational implications of the proposed model for bus services. The results demonstrate that the AWT model significantly reduces bus operation costs by up to 15.7% compared to the traditional assumption that AWT = 1/2 headway. This effect is particularly pronounced for routes characterized by lower demand and higher speeds, which are typical of low-frequency suburban buses. Furthermore, this paper highlights the importance of accurately estimating the passenger waiting times considering passenger schedule-reading behavior in optimizing bus services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 310-322"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143174760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can the opening of high-speed rail (HSR) stimulate residents' consumption? --An interpretation based on the clustering effect of innovation factors","authors":"Qing Zhang,&nbsp;Zeyi Li,&nbsp;Yufeng Pang","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.01.015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The high-speed rail (HSR) unites various cities, potentially expanding the production and consumption scale, and improving the efficiency of supply and demand adaptation while fostering increased consumption in local areas. This study investigates the effect of HSR on residents' consumption using data from 260 prefecture-level Chinese cities spanning 2005 to 2021 and discovers the underlying mechanisms through the perspective of innovation factor agglomeration. The findings revealed that the HSR enhanced the clustering of regional innovation factors, thereby stimulating consumption through mechanisms including job conception and product innovation. Further analysis explored that the agglomeration of capital, talent, and data innovation factors driven by HSR development exerted varying degrees of influence on boosting consumption. Furthermore, based on city type and grade, the effect of the HSR on residents' consumption displayed heterogeneity. The findings of the current study carry significant policy implications, suggesting the requirement for tailored planning of HSR development that considers city types and the unique characteristics of various elements, thereby prompting the potential energy of innovation factor agglomeration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"163 ","pages":"Pages 384-393"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143173793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}