Electric vehicle adoption and the energy rebound effect in the transportation sector: evidence from China

The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) presents new opportunities for mitigating the energy rebound effect (ERE) in the transportation sector, yet this potential remains underexplored. This paper addresses two main objectives: firstly, to measure the ERE in the transportation sector at the city level in China from 2016 to 2022 using an improved stochastic frontier analysis model; and secondly, to examine whether widespread EV adoption can suppress the ERE and to explore the underlying mechanisms at play. Our findings reveal that the city-level ERE varies between 32.3 % and 79.2 %, with an average of 46.9 %, indicating that actual energy savings in Chinese cities under the influence of the digital economy reach only about 55 % of the anticipated levels. Moreover, our causal analysis indicates that EV adoption significantly reduces the transportation sector's ERE, with an average treatment effect of −14.2 %. This reduction is facilitated indirectly through three channels—the efficiency effect, the demand management effect, and the energy structure effect. These findings suggest that while the overall energy rebound effect remains substantial, EV adoption offers a promising pathway for mitigating it.