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Non-Hertzian Stress Fields in Simulated Porous Sandstone Grains and Implications for Compactive Brittle Failure—A High-Resolution FEM Approach 模拟多孔砂岩颗粒的非赫兹应力场及其对压实脆性破坏的影响——高分辨率有限元方法
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB030818
Takahiro Shinohara, Cedric Thieulot, Christopher J. Spiers, Suzanne J. T. Hangx
{"title":"Non-Hertzian Stress Fields in Simulated Porous Sandstone Grains and Implications for Compactive Brittle Failure—A High-Resolution FEM Approach","authors":"Takahiro Shinohara,&nbsp;Cedric Thieulot,&nbsp;Christopher J. Spiers,&nbsp;Suzanne J. T. Hangx","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030818","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Fluid extraction from sandstone reservoirs leads to reservoir compaction, potentially inducing surface subsidence and seismicity, as observed in the Groningen Gas Field, Netherlands. Such compaction is partly elastic, but can additionally be caused by instantaneous plastic and rate/time-dependent processes, such as subcritical crack growth, meaning that compaction may continue even if production is stopped. Despite the need to evaluate the impact of post-abandonment reservoir behavior (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>&gt;</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${ &gt;} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>10–100 years), few mechanism-based, rate/time-dependent compaction laws exist. Compaction due to grain breakage, either via critical or subcritical crack growth, is driven by tensile stresses acting on surface and volume flaws. We performed high-resolution 3D linear elastic finite element method simulations on simplified grain assemblies to investigate the effect of stress–strain boundary conditions, porosity and mineralogical variations on grain-scale stress fields. Our simulations showed tensile stress concentrations at grain contact edges and on pore walls, which increased in magnitude with increasing aggregate porosity and local porosity variation. The fraction of surface area with tensile stresses sufficient to extend flaws with a size up to <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>30</mn>\u0000 <mspace></mspace>\u0000 <mi>μm</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $30hspace*{.5em}mathrm{mu m}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> showed a clear correlation with compactive yield envelopes for the Groningen reservoir sandstone. This suggests that compactive failure is related to the probability of pre-existing surface flaws, falling in a pore surface region where the Griffith criterion is satisfied. A preliminary, time-independent failure probability model, using the observed tensile stress distribution, qualitatively predicts a non-linear increase in grain cracking during deviatoric loading, and suggests a new route to predict sandstone compaction through brittle grain failure.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JB030818","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Constructed Dunes and Roads Reduce Decadal Washover Flux on Transgressing Barrier Islands 建造的沙丘和道路减少了海侵堰洲岛的年代际冲积通量
IF 3.5 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JF008089
E. R. Eisemann, A. B. Rodriguez, D. J. Wallace, S. L. Gremillion
{"title":"Constructed Dunes and Roads Reduce Decadal Washover Flux on Transgressing Barrier Islands","authors":"E. R. Eisemann,&nbsp;A. B. Rodriguez,&nbsp;D. J. Wallace,&nbsp;S. L. Gremillion","doi":"10.1029/2024JF008089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF008089","url":null,"abstract":"<p>On developed barrier islands, washover deposition is regarded as a hazard, despite its essential role in natural island transgression. Measures taken to prevent erosion and halt overwash such as dune stabilization can exacerbate disequilibrium and accelerate island drowning. Although such management practices have been implemented on some U.S. barrier islands for over a century, decadal-scale remote sensing data have only recently become available to evaluate their long-term impacts on island morphology. We analyzed a 30-km stretch of northern Hatteras Island, North Carolina, divided into seven zones with similar geomorphology and management history. This region includes the Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge, with minimal development beyond a shore-parallel road (NC 12), and three towns. Using 11 lidar data sets (2005–2019) and 2013 satellite imagery, we quantified washover flux, geomorphology, and human development metrics along 20 m spaced transects. Zone-averaged washover flux ranged from 0.99 to 5.19 m<sup>3</sup>/m/yr, aligning with sediment core-based metrics but lower than values reported in single-storm studies and the equilibrium flux (6.48 m<sup>3</sup>/m/yr) required for mass conservation during island retreat. Decadal washover flux was not significantly correlated with dune heights, shoreline change, or development density but was linked to development setback, dune height change, and barrier island volume deficit. Flux variability was high even within similarly developed zones, with dune and road maintenance alone reducing washover flux and extent by ∼50%. This suggests that management practices, rather than development density or traditional predictors like dune height, play a dominant role in controlling washover susceptibility, significantly restricting natural barrier island rollover processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":15887,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seafaring megaliths: A geoarchaeological approach to the Matarrubilla giant stone basin at Valencina (Spain) 航海巨石:西班牙瓦伦西纳Matarrubilla巨石盆地的地质考古研究
IF 2.6 1区 地球科学
Journal of Archaeological Science Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jas.2025.106263
Luis M. Cáceres Puro , Teodosio Donaire Romero , José Antonio Lozano Rodríguez , Marta Díaz-Guardamino , Francisco Martínez-Sevilla , Alicia Medialdea , Miren del Val , Jonàs Alcaina-Mateos , Joaquín Rodríguez-Vidal , Fernando Muñiz Guinea , Juan Manuel Vargas Jiménez , Miguel Ángel Rogerio-Candelera , Leonardo García Sanjuán
{"title":"Seafaring megaliths: A geoarchaeological approach to the Matarrubilla giant stone basin at Valencina (Spain)","authors":"Luis M. Cáceres Puro ,&nbsp;Teodosio Donaire Romero ,&nbsp;José Antonio Lozano Rodríguez ,&nbsp;Marta Díaz-Guardamino ,&nbsp;Francisco Martínez-Sevilla ,&nbsp;Alicia Medialdea ,&nbsp;Miren del Val ,&nbsp;Jonàs Alcaina-Mateos ,&nbsp;Joaquín Rodríguez-Vidal ,&nbsp;Fernando Muñiz Guinea ,&nbsp;Juan Manuel Vargas Jiménez ,&nbsp;Miguel Ángel Rogerio-Candelera ,&nbsp;Leonardo García Sanjuán","doi":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jas.2025.106263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A broad multidisciplinary approach is deployed to study an exceptional megalithic feature: the stone basin that presides over the chamber of the Matarrubilla tholos, part of the Valencina Copper Age mega-site (Sevilla, Spain). The study, including geoarchaeological characterisation and sourcing of the stone, traceological analysis of its surfaces based on photogrammetry and morphometrics, digital image analysis as well as OSL dating, leads to a number of substantial findings of great relevance to understand the significance of this stone basin, the only of its kind documented to this date in the Iberian Peninsula, with parallels only in Ireland and Malta. Among the most relevant conclusions, it is worth noting the fact that the gypsiferous cataclasite block the basin was made of was brought from the other side of the marine bay that five thousand years ago extended across the south-east of Valencina, this is the first evidence of waterborne transport of a megalithic stone in the Iberian Peninsula. In addition, the basin appears to have been put where it stands today sometime in the first half of the 4th millennium BC, long before any tholoi were built at Valencina, which suggest a prior history of still poorly documented monumentality at this mega-site.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50254,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Archaeological Science","volume":"180 ","pages":"Article 106263"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144146949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the Convective Environments, Modes, and Warning Verifications of Tornado- and Flash Flood-Warned Storms in the Southeast United States 美国东南部龙卷风和山洪预警风暴的对流环境、模式和预警验证
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学
Meteorological Applications Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1002/met.70062
Daniel Burow, Kelsey Kressler, Zoe Searcy
{"title":"On the Convective Environments, Modes, and Warning Verifications of Tornado- and Flash Flood-Warned Storms in the Southeast United States","authors":"Daniel Burow,&nbsp;Kelsey Kressler,&nbsp;Zoe Searcy","doi":"10.1002/met.70062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70062","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Thunderstorms can produce hazards to society such as tornadoes and flash floods, occasionally at the same time. These storms can be categorized by their convective mode, largely through their appearance on radar. Convective mode is an important factor in how forecasters analyze these threats and warn the public when necessary. This study uses a random forest classification technique to categorize two sets of storms in the Southeastern United States: one comprised of storms warned for tornadoes and flash floods at the same time, and the other warned for tornadoes without necessarily having a concurrent flash flood warning. The goal of these classifications was to use information about each storm's meteorological environment to identify (1) its mode and (2) whether the hazard warning(s) issued by the National Weather Service verified, or whether the warning was a “false alarm.” The models predicting mode generally exhibited more skill and identified differences between discrete modes and linear modes, particularly in upper-level humidity, lapse rates, and low-level wind speeds. The models predicting whether the warnings verified exhibited less skill, but indicated that environments favorable for tornadoes were characterized by stronger wind speeds, lower upper-level moisture, and higher supercell composite parameter, while environments favorable for flash floods were characterized by greater moisture, lower wind speeds, and slower storm motion. These results are of note to researchers and forecasters seeking to better anticipate hazards, identify hazards, increase warning accuracy, and minimize false alarms as the implementation of artificial intelligence into the forecasting process continues.</p>","PeriodicalId":49825,"journal":{"name":"Meteorological Applications","volume":"32 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/met.70062","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dimensionality reduction for groundwater forecasting under drought and intensive irrigation with neural networks 基于神经网络的干旱集约灌溉条件下地下水降维预测
IF 4.7 2区 地球科学
Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102477
Tarik Bouramtane , Ismail Mohsine , Nourelhouda Karmouda , Marc Leblanc , Yannick Estève , Ilias Kacimi , Mohamed Hilali , Salima Mdhaffar , Sarah Tweed , Mounia Tahiri , Nadia Kassou , Ali El Bilali , Omar Chafki
{"title":"Dimensionality reduction for groundwater forecasting under drought and intensive irrigation with neural networks","authors":"Tarik Bouramtane ,&nbsp;Ismail Mohsine ,&nbsp;Nourelhouda Karmouda ,&nbsp;Marc Leblanc ,&nbsp;Yannick Estève ,&nbsp;Ilias Kacimi ,&nbsp;Mohamed Hilali ,&nbsp;Salima Mdhaffar ,&nbsp;Sarah Tweed ,&nbsp;Mounia Tahiri ,&nbsp;Nadia Kassou ,&nbsp;Ali El Bilali ,&nbsp;Omar Chafki","doi":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102477","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102477","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Study Region: This study focuses on the Berrechid aquifer system in northern Morocco.</div><div>Study Focus: The research explores Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for optimizing input selection in groundwater level forecasting using neural networks. PCA efficiently reduces input dimensionality while preserving critical information, making it beneficial for neural network modelling of natural systems with extensive input variables in a low-resource scenarios requiring feature engineering. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model predicted groundwater levels in six monitoring bores using four hydro-climatic variables, precipitation, land surface temperature (LST), actual evapotranspiration (AET), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Model performance was compared using two approaches: the LSTM-XGB model with the best-selected input features and the LSTM-PC1 model based on the first principal component (PC1). New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Results showed that NDVI, AET, and LST were the dominant inputs across different monitoring bores. On average, PC1 accounted for 68.3 % of the variance in hydro-climatic variables, with an eigenvalue of 2.75, surpassing the combined variance of two individual hydro-climatic variables. Both models performed effectively, achieving R² values of 0.982–0.999 during training and 0.885–0.999 during validation. The models successfully captured groundwater fluctuations and the declining trend during drought. LSTM-XGB slightly outperformed LSTM-PC1 in certain cases, but the differences were minimal. The use of PC1 not only mitigates overfitting risks but also allows for generalized predictions across multiple monitoring sites, making it a practical choice for large datasets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48620,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrology-Regional Studies","volume":"60 ","pages":"Article 102477"},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144146858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Lithospheric Footprint of Mantle Upwelling Beneath Late Cenozoic Basalts in the Beibu Gulf Basin, Northwestern South China Sea 南海西北部北部湾盆地晚新生代玄武岩地幔上升流的岩石圈足迹
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB030379
Zehui Lin, Zhuo Xiao, Yayun Zhang, Yong Zhou, Jiangnan Lin, Jun Wang, Chunheng Yan, Min Xu
{"title":"Lithospheric Footprint of Mantle Upwelling Beneath Late Cenozoic Basalts in the Beibu Gulf Basin, Northwestern South China Sea","authors":"Zehui Lin,&nbsp;Zhuo Xiao,&nbsp;Yayun Zhang,&nbsp;Yong Zhou,&nbsp;Jiangnan Lin,&nbsp;Jun Wang,&nbsp;Chunheng Yan,&nbsp;Min Xu","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the convergence area of the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), the Beibu Gulf Basin (BGB) has experienced a complex geological evolution profoundly influenced by the lateral extrusion of the India-Asia collision and the rifting of the SCS continental margin. Nonetheless, late Cenozoic basalts are widespread in the BGB following the cessation of SCS seafloor spreading, with controversial dynamic mechanisms. To investigate the mantle dynamics beneath these late Cenozoic basalts, we aim to investigate the high-resolution lithospheric structure of the BGB region. Our study utilizes data from 162 seismic stations, including three temporarily deployed dense arrays, to investigate the seismic structural features of the Moho and Lithosphere-Asthenosphere Boundary (LAB). P-to-S receiver function analysis reveals a significantly thinned crust with high <i>Vp/Vs</i> ratios beneath the late Cenozoic basalt regions, coinciding with the occurrence of deep crustal earthquakes. Using S-to-P receiver functions, a shallow, strong, and broad LAB is observed beneath the BGB, implying the presence of ponded partial melt. These seismic structural features indicate that the mantle upwelling beneath the BGB likely interacted with the crust, leading to mafic crustal composition, deep earthquakes, and magmatic eruptions. These findings provide new evidence for mantle dynamics in the northwestern SCS, enriching our understanding of interactions between the mantle and crust in the context of intraplate magmatism and deepening seismicity.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Characteristics of Deep Long-Period Earthquakes at Alaska Volcanoes From 2005 to 2017 2005 - 2017年阿拉斯加火山深层长周期地震特征
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB030444
Zilin Song, Yen Joe Tan
{"title":"Characteristics of Deep Long-Period Earthquakes at Alaska Volcanoes From 2005 to 2017","authors":"Zilin Song,&nbsp;Yen Joe Tan","doi":"10.1029/2024JB030444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030444","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Deep long-period earthquakes (DLPs) are often detected near volcanoes from the crust down to the upper mantle. Exhibiting coincidence with volcanic eruptions, DLPs are recognized as potential precursors to volcanic activities yet their detection remains challenging. Meanwhile, their relation to volcanic activities and specific source mechanisms remains uncertain. In this study, we first classify earthquakes into volcano-tectonic (VTs) and long-period (LPs) earthquakes at 10 Alaska volcanoes automatically by the consistent differences in frequency index. The co-location of both VTs and DLPs implies that the differences in their frequency content mainly arise from source effects. We then analyze 12 years of continuous waveforms by template matching and detect 5,421 new DLPs. Few potential repeating DLPs are identified, indicating their source processes are primarily non-repetitive. Detections of mantle DLPs and positive correlations between DLPs and volume change rate in the magma reservoir support the involvement of magmatic activities in some DLP sources, though there is limited correlation in DLP depth distribution with magmatic water content and kinematic parameters of plate motion. In addition, since only ∼17% of DLP bursts correlate with eruptions, with ∼8% occurring simultaneously with VT bursts, this suggests that most DLP bursts at Alaska volcanoes are not directly linked to shallow volcanic unrest. Therefore, their significance as potential precursors requires cautious evaluation before operational use in eruption forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024JB030444","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The First-Order Crustal Structure and Basin Architecture of the Canadian Arctic Margin 加拿大北极边缘的一级地壳结构和盆地结构
IF 2.9 2区 地球科学
Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1029/2025GC012196
Randell Stephenson, Goodluck Anudu
{"title":"The First-Order Crustal Structure and Basin Architecture of the Canadian Arctic Margin","authors":"Randell Stephenson,&nbsp;Goodluck Anudu","doi":"10.1029/2025GC012196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GC012196","url":null,"abstract":"<p>First-order sedimentary isopach and depth-to-Moho maps have been produced for the first time along the Canadian Arctic margin from legacy seismic profiles, calibrated with two-dimensional gravity and magnetic modeling and augmented by some younger passive seismic and exploration seismic data. These maps show margin-scale structural patterns that can be interpreted in terms of fundamental tectonic processes of lithosphere deformation. The Canadian Arctic margin from the Beaufort Sea to Sever Spur, but not beyond it, is a typical passive continental margin along the Canada Basin ocean. However, beyond Sever Spur through to the Lincoln Shelf, the margin comprises a narrow linear sedimentary basin overlying an axis of crustal thinning embedded within continental lithosphere. This basin formed by intracontinental (trans)extension at least in part after the main HALIP magmatic events that helped build Alpha Ridge on its northern margin. This segment of the margin has a tectonic affinity more facing the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic North Atlantic-Baffin Bay-Arctic extensional regime rather than the earlier Canada Basin extensional regime. These interpretations, which together provide a “Canadian” boundary condition on models of Amerasia Basin origin and evolution, are clearly speculative given the resolution of the available geophysical data. They are presented here, nevertheless, accompanied by a thorough overview of pertinent recent literature, with the aim of helping to prompt and inform further debate about the tectonic history of the Arctic Ocean.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"26 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GC012196","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144148387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disentangling density and geometry in weather regime dimensions using stochastic twins 用随机双胞胎解开天气状态维度中的密度和几何
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w
Paul Platzer, Bertrand Chapron, Gabriele Messori
{"title":"Disentangling density and geometry in weather regime dimensions using stochastic twins","authors":"Paul Platzer, Bertrand Chapron, Gabriele Messori","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01086-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Large-scale atmospheric variability can be summarized by recurring patterns called weather regimes. Their properties, including predictability, have been studied using the local dimension, a geometrical estimate of degrees of freedom from multifractal theory. Local dimension estimates vary across regimes, decrease when a single regime dominates, and increase during transitions, supporting their dynamical significance. However, these variations stem not only from geometry but also from sampling density. We develop a null-hypothesis test using stochastic twins-Gaussian mixture-based surrogates matching atmospheric sampling density but with constant geometry-applied to ERA5 500 hPa fields. Density effects alone explain over 25% of local dimension variance and reproduce the dimension drop near regime peaks, indicating this behavior is density-driven, not geometric. The remaining variability is plausibly geometry-driven. This approach, applicable to any observed system with known sampling distribution, offers a new framework for interpreting local dimension estimates in atmospheric and oceanic data.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Hydrogeological and electrostratigraphic modeling of coastal aquifers: Investigating systemic vulnerability, hydraulic yield potential, and corrosivity pathways 沿海含水层的水文地质和电地层学建模:调查系统脆弱性、水力产量潜力和腐蚀性途径
IF 2 4区 地球科学
Solid Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.sesci.2025.100243
Jewel E. Thomas, Ndifreke I. Udosen, Aniekan M. Ekanem, Nyakno J. George
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