地球科学最新文献

{"title":"Global Hotspots for Sea-Level Changes: Decadal Extremes and Uncertainties From CMIP6 Models","authors":"Salah Basem Ajjur,&nbsp;Emanuele Di Lorenzo,&nbsp;Baylor Fox-Kemper","doi":"10.1029/2025EA004402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EA004402","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Knowledge is limited regarding decadal extremes and uncertainties of sea-level change (SLC) at the regional scale, which necessitates the need for better understanding of these changes to enhance future coastal preparedness. To this end, we examined sea-level extremes for 23 World reference regions based on tide gauges (TGs) observations from 1950 to 2014. We then used these observations to evaluate the fidelity of climate models and earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), using trend analysis, correlation coefficient and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as metrics. Our findings show the spatial distribution of SLC varies between −10.0 and 6.52 mm/yr, with an area-weighted global average of 1.29 ± 0.32 mm/yr. Five regions display rapid increasing rates exceeding twice the global average: E. and C. North-America, N. Central-America, W. C. Asia, and S. E. Asia. Together, these regions constitute 26% of the total analyzed area. The CMIP6 simulations, especially ESMs, have a systematic underestimation of SLC, compared with TGs. We found poor agreement between CMIP6 simulations and TGs (weak correlation and larger RMSE) in subtropical North Atlantic regions and W. Central Asia. Our findings facilitate a multifactor hazard regional analysis that includes SLC alongside temperature, precipitation, and other parameters. It also identifies directions for future model development toward better detecting extremes and narrowing uncertainties in sea level simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":54286,"journal":{"name":"Earth and Space Science","volume":"12 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EA004402","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Abundant Non-Mare Components in the Chang'e-6 Lunar Regolith: Constraints From Plagioclase Fragments and Impact Glasses","authors":"Zhiming Chen,&nbsp;Le Zhang,&nbsp;Jingyou Chen,&nbsp;Chngyuan Wang,&nbsp;Jintuan Wang,&nbsp;Zexian Cui,&nbsp;Zuyang Zou,&nbsp;Pengli He,&nbsp;Yonghua Cao,&nbsp;Qin Zhou,&nbsp;Linli Chen,&nbsp;Yan-Qiang Zhang,&nbsp;Yi-Gang Xu","doi":"10.1029/2025JE008976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JE008976","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lunar regolith contains not only materials derived from the local rock unit, but also materials transferred from remote craters, which are crucial for investigating the lithological diversity of the lunar surface. In this study, we conducted detailed petrography and geochemical analyses and measured the cross-sectional area of plagioclase fragments and impact glass particles selected from the Chang'e 6 (CE-6) regolith, the first lunar far-side returned sample. Statistics of plagioclase fragments and impact glass are used to estimate the proportion of the diverse components in the CE-6 regolith. The results reveal 35.7 vol% and 28.2 vol% exotic components in CE-6 plagioclase and impact glass fractions, respectively. As plagioclase, pyroxene and glass particles are the three dominant phases (&gt;95 vol%) in the CE-6 regolith, together with previously reported pyroxene compositions, we estimate that the abundance of the exotic materials is 23.5–33.5 vol%. These exogeneous components include very-low-Ti (VLT) basalt (2%–3%), ferroan anorthosite (5%–9%), Mg-suite (15%–20%), KREEP-related (∼0.1%), and highlands-mare-mixed materials (∼1%). The VLT-basalt component is most likely from the mare basalt unit to the east of the landing site or beneath the local mare layer. Based on the ejecta orientations and model age of impact craters, ferroan anorthite, Mg-suite and KREEP-related materials are likely transferred from Vavilov/Pythagoras (highland anorthosite), Chaffee S/White’ (rich in mafic minerals), and Birkeland (high Th contents) craters, respectively. The abundant non-mare components in the CE-6 regolith contrast to the very scarce exotic materials in the CE-5 lunar regolith, potentially providing valuable insights into the composition of the lunar far-side.</p>","PeriodicalId":16101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Asymmetry of Cyclonic Sea Surface Wind and Wave Observed by SAR","authors":"Weizeng Shao,&nbsp;Yuyi Hu,&nbsp;Qingping Zou,&nbsp;Maurizio Migliaccio,&nbsp;Xingwei Jiang","doi":"10.1029/2025GL116600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116600","url":null,"abstract":"<p>CyclObs-derived wind and SWH field are extracted from over 600 dual-polarized Sentinel-1 (S-1) images of around 300 tropical cyclones (TCs) over the past eight years to investigate asymmetry of wind and wave fields during TCs. Fetch analysis and machine learning technique, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), is used to establish a relationship between TC wind speed and significant wave height (SWH). It was found that TC wind and SWH radii become asymmetric as sea states intensify. Notably, wind radii correlations (CORs) increase on the left-right and left-back quadrants for wind speeds larger than 20 m/s, while SWH radii exhibit the opposite trend. XGBoost is employed to obtain the improved relationship between wind fetch and SWH (COR &lt; 0.17). Validation against buoys and Haiyang-2 (HY-2) observations of 20 TCs indicates that the root mean squared error in SWH predictions is reduced by up to 1.1 m using XGBoost instead of empirical model. The new TC wave model by XGBoost is particularly robust under high-wind conditions, therefore vital for warning and mitigation of extreme storms and improved parameterizations of air-sea interaction.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL116600","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Distinct Global Distribution of Electrostatic Electron Cyclotron Harmonic Waves in Earth's Magnetosphere Revealed by Multi-Satellite Observations","authors":"Yuequn Lou,&nbsp;Binbin Ni,&nbsp;Xing Cao,&nbsp;Qianli Ma,&nbsp;Yoshizumi Miyoshi,&nbsp;Dedong Wang,&nbsp;Shuqin Chen,&nbsp;Jiaming Li,&nbsp;Xudong Gu,&nbsp;Xin Ma,&nbsp;Qi Zhu,&nbsp;Yoshiya Kasahara,&nbsp;Shoya Matsuda,&nbsp;Atsuki Shinbori,&nbsp;Ayako Matsuoka,&nbsp;Mariko Teramoto,&nbsp;Kazuhiro Yamamoto,&nbsp;Iku Shinohara","doi":"10.1029/2025GL117276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL117276","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Electrostatic electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) waves have been analyzed using different satellite data. However, single-mission studies prevent a systematic understanding of the emissions in Earth's magnetosphere. We perform a comprehensive survey of ECH waves using observations from Van Allen Probes, Arase, and MMS satellites spanning over 2012–2023. Our results indicate that these waves cover a broad spatial region of <i>L</i> = 3–15, |MLAT| &lt; ∼40°, and nearly all magnetic local time sectors, showing a pronounced regional dependence. In the inner magnetosphere (<i>L</i> &lt; ∼6), ECH wave power peaks in the premidnight-to-noon sectors, while the waves in outer regions (<i>L</i> &gt; 6) exhibit dayside-maximized occurrence rates. Wave amplitudes are strongest on the nightside but display a secondary pre-noon peak at <i>L</i> &gt; 8. In addition, ECH waves are predominantly confined near the equator (|MLAT| &lt; 5°) at <i>L</i> &lt; ∼8, in contrast to the much broader latitudinal distribution (|MLAT| &lt; 35°) at higher <i>L</i>.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL117276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep Learning and Remote‐Sensed Observations Reveal Global Underestimation of River Obstructions","authors":"Mingxia He, Jie Niu, William J. Riley, Chaopeng Shen, Yi Zheng, John M. Melack, Dongwei Gui, Han Qiu, Mengyu Xie, Liwei Sun, Dongdong Liu, Yong Fu, Qixin Wu, Shaoqi Zhou, Pan Wu, Bill X. Hu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039692","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039692","url":null,"abstract":"River obstructions are a subject of global concern due to their impact on river connectivity and aquatic ecosystems. However, detecting and quantifying these structures, especially small and undocumented ones, remains a major challenge due to limitations in existing data sets and detection methods. This study focuses on improving the global detection of river obstructions and revealing their spatial distribution patterns. We developed a deep‐learning‐based detection framework combined with manual validation, resulting in the Deep Learning‐Global River Obstructions Database, which comprises 50,061 river obstructions identified globally. This represents a 64% increase over previous estimates, which were based solely on manual identification. Spatial analyses reveal strong correlations between obstruction density and factors such as Gross Domestic Product, agricultural expansion, urbanization, and river morphology. By enhancing the precision and comprehensiveness of river obstruction data, our open‐source data set provides a solid foundation for accurate assessment of global river connectivity, basin‐to‐continental‐scale hydrological modeling, and impact assessments.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"122 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145002949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sources of marine carbonyl sulfide and its precursors traced by sulfur isotopes","authors":"Chen Davidson, Alon Angert, Yasmin Avidani, Sinikka T. Lennartz, Marc von Hobe, Alon Amrani","doi":"10.1002/lno.70196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.70196","url":null,"abstract":"Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is a major precursor of stratospheric sulfate aerosols and a proxy for terrestrial photosynthesis. In recent years, sulfur‐isotope measurements (δ<jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S) of OCS emerged as an approach to constrain the OCS budget. Yet, such measurements are still scarce for aquatic OCS. Here we present a large dataset of δ<jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S values of marine OCS. In addition, we present δ<jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S values of marine carbon disulfide (CS<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>) and dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which in the air, act as important precursors of tropospheric OCS. Samples were collected at the Atlantic Ocean, the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Wadden Sea, and the North Sea. The gases were sampled by a water–air equilibrator, preserved in canisters, and analyzed via a preconcentration system coupled to a gas chromatograph connected to a multi‐collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer. We found δ<jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S values of −3.8‰ to 19.4‰ for OCS, −10.5‰ to 20‰ for CS<jats:sub>2</jats:sub>, and 14–23‰ for DMS. These δ<jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S values are controlled mainly by two endmembers: production in the water column and production in sediments. Lab experiments suggest that the <jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S‐fractionation of OCS photo‐production is 0.8‰ ± 0.5‰. In addition, based on measurements from the Atlantic Ocean, we calculated the <jats:sup>34</jats:sup>S‐fractionation of OCS dark‐production as −6‰ ± 2‰. This new data significantly improves our knowledge of the sulfur isotope distribution of marine OCS and helps identify its different sources, sinks, and production pathways.","PeriodicalId":18143,"journal":{"name":"Limnology and Oceanography","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145003144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"U–Pb zircon geochronology and geochemistry of Um Genud layered mafic intrusion in the northern tip of the Arabian-nubian shield: implications for the genesis of the plutonic crust of neoproterozoic immature intra-oceanic arc","authors":"Tarek H. Abu El-Kheir ,&nbsp;Keda Cai ,&nbsp;Ayman E. Maurice ,&nbsp;Kai Wang ,&nbsp;Hairuo Wang ,&nbsp;Maher Dawoud","doi":"10.1016/j.precamres.2025.107915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.precamres.2025.107915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Um Genud Neoproterozoic layered mafic intrusion, located in the South Eastern Desert of Egypt, represents the northwestern tip of the juvenile crust of the Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS). This intrusion is composed of olivine gabbro, gabbro, noritic-gabbro and hornblende gabbro. Zircon U–Pb data constrain the emplacement age of the intrusion to 718 Ma, coinciding with the island arc stages of the ANS. The trace element patterns of pyroxenes, amphiboles, whole-rock samples and calculated melts in equilibrium with clinopyroxene and amphibole show marked Nb-Ta and Zr-Hf troughs and prominent peak of Pb. These features, along with the trace element abundances and ratios in zircon, suggest that the parental magma was generated in an intra-oceanic island arc setting from a depleted mantle source metasomatized by subducted slab-derived aqueous fluids. Textural features, mineral compositions of olivine, pyroxene and plagioclase, whole-rock geochemical characteristics, the calculated ƒO₂ values (FMQ + 1 – FMQ + 1.6), and the estimated water content (5.9 – 9.1 wt%) of melt indicate that the Um Genud gabbroic rocks represent cumulates differentiated from oxidized hydrous low-K tholeiitic magma, essentially by fractional crystallization. The estimated pressure of crystallization (∼3 to ∼ 3.5 kbar; ∼10 km depth), the low-K tholeiitic nature of parental magma and the relative abundance of the exposed gabbroic and granitic arc rocks in the study area are consistent with intrusion emplacement within the lower crust of an immature oceanic arc. This implies that even arcs with thin crust can develop considerable plutonic layers and contribute to continental crust growth through vertical accretion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49674,"journal":{"name":"Precambrian Research","volume":"429 ","pages":"Article 107915"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effect of Near-Surface Winds on Surface Temperature and Dust Transport on Venus","authors":"Maxence Lefèvre,&nbsp;Sébastien Lebonnois,&nbsp;Aymeric Spiga,&nbsp;François Forget","doi":"10.1029/2025JE009133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JE009133","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The knowledge of the Venus near-surface atmosphere is sparse. Few spacecrafts landed on the surface and measured winds with amplitudes below 1 m/s. The diurnal cycle of the wind amplitude and orientation is not known. Recent numerical simulations showed that slope winds along topographic structures could strongly impact the direction of winds. This study presents the first mesoscale modeling of such winds on Venus. A change of direction is occurring during the day in the main slopes, with upslope winds at noon due to solar heating and downslope winds at night. This is due to efficient IR cooling of the surface during the night, being colder than its surroundings slope atmospheric environment and leading to displacement of air. The temperature is impacted by the adiabatic cooling/warming induced by those winds. A strong heating effect is occurring for the downslope winds, leading to an anti-correlation between the surface temperature diurnal amplitude and the topography. This diurnal amplitude reaches 4 K in the plains and below 1 K in the mountains. The saltation of sediment by those winds was also quantified, with a higher probability at night along the slopes on the western flanks.</p>","PeriodicalId":16101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets","volume":"130 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025JE009133","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review of Australian carbonatites and associated REE-Nb mineralisation","authors":"Ross Chandler ,&nbsp;Ignacio González-Álverez ,&nbsp;John Mavrogenes ,&nbsp;Luke Blais","doi":"10.1016/j.gexplo.2025.107870","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gexplo.2025.107870","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Australia has 16 known carbonatites, and two other occurrences of REE mineralisation interpreted as carbonatite-related. These are all located within Precambrian crust, and host known resources of c. 7.2 Mt. of rare earth oxides (containing c. 1.73 Mt. of Nd₂O₃ and Pr₆O₁₁), and c. 2.7 Mt. of Nb₂O₅.</div><div>Australia's carbonatites range from Neoarchean to Jurassic, and display extreme diversity in geological characteristics, ranging from large, multiphase intrusive complexes dominated by either carbonatite (e.g. Gifford Creek and Mt. Weld, Western Australia) or silicate rocks (e.g. Cummins Range and Cundeelee, Western Australia), to single phase and small volume carbonatite dykes (e.g. Yungal dykes, Western Australia). Studied occurrences show similarly diverse radiogenic isotopic signatures (Rb/Sr and Sm/Nd), indicating derivation from a variety of mantle sources ranging from HIMU through to EM1.</div><div>Significant rare earth element (REE) and niobium (Nb) mineralisation occurs in both fresh and weathered carbonatites throughout Australia, with markedly different mineralogical and grade characteristics. While weathering history and preservation are crucial to the formation of supergene enrichments in REE and Nb, analysis of whole-rock geochemical data for different carbonatite types from the Mt. Weld and Gifford Creek complexes suggest primary magmatic composition plays the strongest determinant in the magnitude of grade increase, with siderite-dominated carbonatites having less potential for supergene upgrade than dolomite, ankerite and calcite-dominated examples.</div><div>The distinct geophysical signatures of Australia's known carbonatites have aided exploration efforts leading to early discoveries of deposits within highly magnetic complexes such as Mt. Weld and Cummins Range. Recent discoveries of geophysically subtle complexes (e.g. Gifford Creek complex, West Arunta) suggests both alternative geophysical techniques and a comprehensive structural understanding are crucial to discovery.</div><div>Explorers should focus on areas of known carbonatite magmatism, with a particular focus on developing an understanding of the regional structures that can facilitate carbonatite intrusion. On a local scale, the selection of relevant carbonatite geophysical and exploration signatures leveraging previous local discoveries should be prioritised. The small number of known carbonatites in Australia compared to the other continents abundances indicates further carbonatites and associated mineralisation may be discovered with increased exploration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16336,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geochemical Exploration","volume":"279 ","pages":"Article 107870"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing Accumulated Temperature Pushed the Maize Planting Limit Northwards: Phenomenon Analysis and Coping Strategy","authors":"Yihang Huang,&nbsp;Zhengjia Liu","doi":"10.1029/2025EF005937","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF005937","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate warming is driving the northward movement of crop planting limits, especially for maize in Northeast China. While previous studies focused on dynamics of the potential northern limit of maize (PNLine), the movement of the actual northern limit of maize (ANLine) and its agricultural impacts remain underexplored. To bridge the gap, this study first developed a method to detect the ANLine using satellite-derived crop data and kernel density estimation. To assess the driving factors behind the expansion of maize acreage, an empirical analysis was conducted in the maize-soybean key competitive region (KCR). Finally, we calculated the climate-warming driven maize acreage expansion over the past two decades and projected its changes for the next decade. Results showed that the PNLine and ANLine moved northwards by an average of 101.67 and 75.4 km from 2000 to 2020. The two lines showed a strong correlation (<i>r</i> = 0.78, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). The increasing accumulated temperature was the key driver behind these movements. A 10°C·d increase in AAT10 is associated with a 3.12% increase in maize acreage in the KCR. From 2001 to 2020, ∼49.5% (2.83 × 10⁶ ha) of the maize acreage expansion could be attributable to climate warming. By 2030, climate warming is projected to expand the maize acreage by 2.43, 2.66, and 3.19 × 10⁶ ha under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These findings highlight the need for strategies to narrow the profit gap between maize and soybean, offering insights for regional crop planting structure adjustments and agricultural sustainability under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF005937","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144998892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}