Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-10-17DOI: 10.1029/2025EF007572
J. Dari, L. Brocca, P. Laluet, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, S. Modanesi, W. Dorigo, C. Albergel
{"title":"Satellite-Based Estimates of Irrigation Water Use Versus Modeling Reconstructions: How Much do They Differ?","authors":"J. Dari, L. Brocca, P. Laluet, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, S. Modanesi, W. Dorigo, C. Albergel","doi":"10.1029/2025EF007572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Knowing water amounts destined for agricultural practices, essentially consisting of irrigation water use (IWU), is essential for water resources management. Although explicit and consistent information on IWU is generally lacking worldwide, remote sensing and modeling platforms offer valuable solutions for estimating it. The objective of this work is to perform an intercomparison between satellite-based IWU products and modeling reconstructions over four main irrigation hotspots worldwide: the Contiguous United States (CONUS), the Ebro basin (Spain), India, and the Murray-Darling basin (Australia). Remote-sensing-based IWU estimated through Soil-Moisture-Inversion (SM-Inversion) and SM-Delta approaches are considered. As modeled data, five Global Hydrological Models are evaluated: H08, PCR-GLOBWB, WaterGAP, LPJmL, and QUAlloc. Reference irrigation volumes are exploited to assess which source is more reliable. Over CONUS and Murray-Darling basin, lower discrepancies between data sources (satellite or modeling) are detected. Referring to spatially-averaged IWU magnitudes, the comparison over CONUS provides <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>RMSE</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{RMSE}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> ranging from 9.52 to 12.21 mm/month, <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>BIAS</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{BIAS}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> between 3.24 and 7.06 mm/month, and Pearson correlation (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>r</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $r$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>) from 0.77 to 0.90. The same intervals for the Murray-Darling basin are 8.04–17.70 mm/month for <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>RMSE</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{RMSE}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, 4.81–12.63 mm/month for <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>BIAS</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $text{BIAS}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, and 0.42–0.85 for <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>r</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $r$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. Consequently, over such areas, similar performances in reproducing actual irrigation amounts by satellite estimates and modeling reconstructions, when available, are found. Over the Ebro basin, where the strongest discrepancies are found, satellite-based data sets outperform model outputs","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025EF007572","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Bauer, I. Grevemeyer, L. Rüpke, P. Huybers, A. Dannowski, M. Riedel, M. Frank, K. Hoernle, C. Langmuir, H. Kopp
{"title":"Benchmarking Multiple Methods for the Spectral Analysis of Seafloor Morphology","authors":"B. Bauer, I. Grevemeyer, L. Rüpke, P. Huybers, A. Dannowski, M. Riedel, M. Frank, K. Hoernle, C. Langmuir, H. Kopp","doi":"10.1029/2026GC013359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GC013359","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The influence of glacial sea-level changes on the quasi-periodic spacing of abyssal hills has remained controversial for over a decade. Spectral analyses of seafloor morphology have yielded contrasting conclusions regarding whether periodicities associated with orbital Milankovitch forcing are recorded in abyssal hill spacing, raising questions about the sensitivity of results to methodological choices. An important component of spectral analysis is prewhitening, or methods by which to mitigate the effects of the strong red background spectrum, characteristic of seafloor bathymetry. Various methods can have first-order implications for the inferred significance of spectral peaks. Here we benchmark four approaches for analyzing bathymetric spectra to detect periodicities in seafloor morphology. Through synthetic testing, we confirm that spectral analysis is better performed using a multitaper approach relative to other standard approaches and that a leveled spectrum can be derived by either prewhitening with an autoregressive and moving-average model or by leveling with a von Kármán model. Application of the different methods to previously published and newly analyzed bathymetric data sets shows that methodological choices substantially influence the inferred significance of spectral peaks, even when similar spectral features are present. Our results provide practical guidance for selecting appropriate spectral methods and bathymetric data sets when testing hypotheses linking glacial/interglacial sea-level variations to seafloor morphology and establish a methodological framework for future investigations of periodic signals in oceanic crustal accretion.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"27 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GC013359","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lijun Wang, Shoufa Lin, Wenjiao Xiao, Cees R. van Staal, Chris R. M. McFarlane, Zhijun Niu, Fang Song, Qihang Wu
{"title":"Tracing Orogenic Evolution From Multi-Detrital Mineral Records: U-Pb Geochronology and Trace-Element Constraints From Glacial Diamictites","authors":"Lijun Wang, Shoufa Lin, Wenjiao Xiao, Cees R. van Staal, Chris R. M. McFarlane, Zhijun Niu, Fang Song, Qihang Wu","doi":"10.1029/2026GC013024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GC013024","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Integrating multiple detrital mineral systems provides a powerful framework for reconstructing source-region tectonothermal evolution because different minerals record complementary aspects of magmatic and metamorphic processes. Glacial diamictites are particularly valuable for this approach because extensive glacial erosion can sample broad source regions and diverse crustal levels while minimizing chemical weathering and preserving unstable mineral phases. Here, we present integrated U-Pb geochronological and trace-element analyses of detrital apatite and rutile from Marinoan-aged glacial diamictites of the Yangtze Block in South China and combine these data with existing zircon data sets. Detrital apatite records dominant mafic and I-type magmatism between ∼970 and 650 Ma, with more evolved peraluminous signatures appearing at 850–820 Ma, broadly consistent with declining zircon εHf(t) values. Detrital rutile reveals dominant Neoproterozoic (∼970–790 Ma) and subordinate Paleoproterozoic (2.2–1.8 Ga) metamorphic signatures. Zr-in-rutile thermometry indicates temperatures of 480°C–980°C, including a distinct ∼950–820 Ma high-pressure, low-temperature population consistent with blueschist- to eclogite-facies conditions. These data record major tectonic transitions within the Panxi-Hannan orogen of the northwestern Yangtze Block, from an intra-oceanic arc (970–880 Ma) to a continental arc (870–790 Ma), followed by regional extension after 790 Ma. The cessation of rutile and metamorphic apatite ages coincides with the onset of regional extension in the source orogen. The ∼950–820 Ma cold-subduction signature expands the global record of Tonian low-geothermal-gradient metamorphism. Our results demonstrate that integrating multiple detrital mineral systems yields a more complete tectonic history than any single provenance proxy.</p>","PeriodicalId":50422,"journal":{"name":"Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems","volume":"27 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GC013024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Martina Mercurio, Giovanna Montesano, Piergiulio Cappelletti, Paola Petrosino, Sossio Fabio Graziano, Assunta Campanile, Barbara Liguori, Concetta Rispoli
{"title":"On the tracks of Pulvis Puteolana: provenance and selection of Roman hydraulic materials","authors":"Martina Mercurio, Giovanna Montesano, Piergiulio Cappelletti, Paola Petrosino, Sossio Fabio Graziano, Assunta Campanile, Barbara Liguori, Concetta Rispoli","doi":"10.1007/s12520-026-02582-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s12520-026-02582-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Phlegraean <i>pozzolana</i> played an important role in the production of Roman hydraulic mortars, capable of enhancing mechanical strength even in contact with water. For this reason, this geomaterial was widely exported along the Mediterranean coasts (ROMACONS Project).</p><p>Nowadays, the term <i>pozzolana</i> is strictly referred as the unconsolidated facies of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT; ca. 15 ka), while the term pozzolan suits any fine-grained, mainly glassy volcanic ash as well as commercial products exhibiting pozzolanic activity.</p><p>This study characterizes <i>pozzolana stricto sensu</i> and two incoherent deposits belonging to post-NYT eruption collected from quarries from Phlegraean Fields area, historically used by the Romans and compares them with pozzolanic aggregates found in hydraulic mortars from both Campanian and extra-regional archaeological sites.</p><p>A multi-analytical approach was employed to obtain detailed minero-petrographic and chemical information with Polarized Optical Microscopy (POM), X-Ray Powder Diffraction (XRPD), X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF), Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with Energy-Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (FESEM-EDS). In addition, technological and physical properties were assessed through pozzolanic activity test and laser particle size analyses.</p><p>Experimental data showed that post-NYT pyroclastic deposits also exhibit pozzolanic activity and can develop hydraulic properties. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that both NYT and selected post-NYT deposits were recognized empirically by Romans as suitable raw materials for hydraulic mortars preparation for both local and distal constructions. The Fratini test is therefore used here as a modern assessment of pozzolanic reactivity, while provenance and selection hypotheses are primarily based on the combined petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical evidence. In fact, the compositional match between <i>pozzolana</i> samples analyses and literature glass data from Roman mortars, in relation to the compositional fields of known Phlegraean Fields eruptions, suggests that post-NYT deposits were also employed as <i>pulvis puteolana</i>.</p><p>This research establishes a first reference database to further the knowledge of ancient Roman construction technology.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8214,"journal":{"name":"Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences","volume":"18 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s12520-026-02582-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149189947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
GeobiologyPub Date : 2026-10-17DOI: 10.1111/gbi.70070
Sabrina M. C. Hardy, Emily J. Aguilar-Pine, Sean Gulick, Alaa Ahmad, Brett J. Baker, Nathalie Scott, Georgina Aitolo, Naomi Felton, Charles S. Cockell
{"title":"Impact Crater Hydrothermal Systems Support Rapid Microbial Enrichment and Diverse Metabolic Potential","authors":"Sabrina M. C. Hardy, Emily J. Aguilar-Pine, Sean Gulick, Alaa Ahmad, Brett J. Baker, Nathalie Scott, Georgina Aitolo, Naomi Felton, Charles S. Cockell","doi":"10.1111/gbi.70070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/gbi.70070","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Impact crater hydrothermal systems, formed after asteroid and comet impacts, have been proposed as promising habitats for life on early Earth and as key targets in the search for life on planetary bodies such as Mars, since they provide liquid water and active geochemical turnover. Because no newly formed impact structures exist on Earth, studies of microbial establishment in impact-crater hydrothermal systems have largely relied on the direct observation of fossil microbial life or its isotopic signatures. To address this limitation, we established simulated microcosm hydrothermal systems in the laboratory using melt-bearing impact breccia (suevite) from the Ries impact structure, Germany, and temperate soils. Within weeks, these systems hosted taxonomically diverse communities, with broad metabolic potential, partitioned among oxidized impact glass, endolithic suevite habitats, and sedimentary environments. Dominant taxa included thermophiles from primarily heterotrophic lineages (e.g., <i>Meiothermus</i> and <i>Aneurinibacillus</i> spp.), as well as lineages with potentially chemolithotrophic metabolisms (e.g., <i>Brockia</i> spp.). Metagenomic annotations identified genes associated with methane, iron, and sulfur cycling, including sulfate-reduction, indicating metabolic potential for biogeochemically relevant processes under hydrothermal conditions. These results show that impact-generated hydrothermal systems can rapidly support diverse thermophilic microbial communities with habitat-specific community structure and metabolic potential, supporting their relevance as analogue environments for studying early microbial establishment and biosignature formation in planetary impact settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":173,"journal":{"name":"Geobiology","volume":"24 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gbi.70070","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Earths FuturePub Date : 2026-10-17DOI: 10.1029/2026EF009035
A. W. Wells, D. R. Rounce, B. S. Tober
{"title":"Alaskan Glaciers in a Warming Climate","authors":"A. W. Wells, D. R. Rounce, B. S. Tober","doi":"10.1029/2026EF009035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EF009035","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Glaciers across Alaska are undergoing rapid mass loss, with implications for sea-level rise, natural hazards, water resources, and more. Here, we utilize new snowline and melt extent observations of Alaskan glaciers at high spatiotemporal resolutions to improve projections to 2100. Specifically, we incorporate these observations into the calibration scheme for the large-scale Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM), and subsequently simulate future changes under various climate scenarios. We estimate that glaciers in Alaska will lose 49 ± 17% to 73 ± 26% of their 2015 mass by the end of the century, depending on the future climate. Nearly all small glaciers (<1 km<sup>2</sup>) will disappear by 2100 regardless of the climate scenario, along with the smallest glacierized subregions of Alaska, namely, the Brooks and Talkeetna ranges. Across larger subregions, negative mass balance is projected to peak in the middle of the 21st century for the modest future warming scenario (i.e., SSP1-2.6), while negative mass balance continues to increase to 2100 for the most aggressive future warming scenario (SSP5-8.5). Much of these changes are attributed to increasing temperatures that cause greater melt in addition to a shift in early-winter precipitation from snow to rain which reduces accumulation and enhances melt by exposing the underlying ice earlier in the next ablation season. Of the remaining glaciers in 2100, 15%–60%, depending on the future climate, have no accumulation area and are thus committed to disappearance. Overall, the widespread loss of glaciers in Alaska by 2100 has implications on ecology, water resources, natural hazards, and tourism across the region.</p>","PeriodicalId":48748,"journal":{"name":"Earths Future","volume":"14 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026EF009035","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. W. Dai, J. J. Qi, W. W. Mao, Y. Huang, S. H. Xu, H. Yang, Y. S. Hua, L. F. Chen, M. Y. Hou, J. Zhang, H. Zheng
{"title":"Geometry-Dependent Penetration in Microgravity Reveals a Transition From Compaction-Dominated to Shear-Dominated Failure","authors":"G. W. Dai, J. J. Qi, W. W. Mao, Y. Huang, S. H. Xu, H. Yang, Y. S. Hua, L. F. Chen, M. Y. Hou, J. Zhang, H. Zheng","doi":"10.1029/2026JE009850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JE009850","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Penetration into granular media plays a central role in regolith–structure interactions on planetary bodies, where gravitational acceleration is far lower than on Earth. Although penetration resistance and bearing capacity are commonly inferred from terrestrial experiments, the extent to which reduced gravity alters penetration mechanics and failure behavior remains insufficiently understood. Here, we present a controlled experimental study of quasi-static penetration into dry granular media under terrestrial gravity and microgravity using a drop-tower facility. Penetration resistance, surface deformation, and grain-scale kinematics were measured simultaneously to resolve both macroscopic response and underlying particle motion. The results show that penetration induces compaction of the granular packing under both gravity conditions. However, microgravity leads to markedly different deformation patterns, including enhanced surface rebound, steeper transient slopes, and substantially reduced penetration resistance. Grain-scale displacement fields reveal that these macroscopic differences arise from a gravity-dependent transition in failure behavior: penetration-dominated deformation under terrestrial gravity gives way to shear dilation failure accompanied by vortex-like particle motion under microgravity. These findings demonstrate that penetration behavior observed on Earth cannot be directly extrapolated to low-gravity environments and provide new physical insights into gravity-controlled granular mechanics relevant to planetary surface processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":16101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets","volume":"131 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Methane Uptake by Inland Waters: Fact or Fiction?","authors":"Mike Peacock, Jackie Webb","doi":"10.1029/2026GB009212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026GB009212","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Inland waters are widely known as net emitters of methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) to the atmosphere, contributing ∼15% of global CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. CH<sub>4</sub> is produced by anaerobic methanogens in aquatic sediments, but net CH<sub>4</sub> emissions at the water–air interface are modulated by CH<sub>4</sub> oxidation by methanotrophs in the water column. However, the prevailing paradigm is that CH<sub>4</sub> production outweighs oxidation, and that freshwaters are ubiquitously net emitters. Here, via data collation and solicitation of expert opinion, we show that diffusive CH<sub>4</sub> uptake (i.e., net CH<sub>4</sub> consumption) is reported across a diverse range of freshwater types, although fluxes are generally small (median = −2.2 mg CH<sub>4</sub> m<sup>−2</sup> d<sup>−1</sup>). Although some reports of freshwater CH<sub>4</sub> uptake can be attributed to errors in data collection and analysis, others are harder to dismiss. Uptake is potentially driven by biological processes such as high rates of methanotrophy, or by physical processes such as mixing-induced introduction of low-CH<sub>4</sub> water from other layers or inflows. Our results question the paradigm that freshwaters are always sources of CH<sub>4</sub>. We call for targeted field and lab work programs to more fully detect and understand this elusive but intriguing natural phenomenon.</p>","PeriodicalId":12729,"journal":{"name":"Global Biogeochemical Cycles","volume":"40 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026GB009212","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149206209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Diffusion-Based Reconstruction of Western North Pacific Surface Winds From CYGNSS for Tropical Cyclone Analysis","authors":"Xinhai Han, Xiaohui Li, Jingsong Yang, Zeyi Niu, Guoqi Han, Naifeng Fu, Jiuke Wang, Wei Tao, Lotfi Aouf, Dake Chen","doi":"10.1029/2026MS005911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2026MS005911","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Sea surface wind retrieval under extreme weather conditions is constrained by the sparse and irregular spatiotemporal sampling of Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R). This study presents a probabilistic wind field reconstruction framework for the Western North Pacific using Score-Based Data Assimilation (SDA). A diffusion model trained on historical wind analyses serves as a statistical prior, and sparse Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) observations constrain the reverse diffusion process to draw samples from an approximate posterior. Track-segment withholding (80% input, 20% verification), additionally excluding verification cells containing input observations, yields a case-averaged Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.637 m/s. In Tropical Cyclone (TC) scenarios, for cases with analysis-box CYGNSS coverage above 10%, the reconstruction reduces the inner-core intensity bias of both gridded references (the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis by 78.4%, and the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform analysis—its own training prior—by 70.1%) with lower RMSE than the reanalysis but slightly higher RMSE than the multi-platform analysis. Furthermore, the framework provides informative pixel-level uncertainty estimates that are under-dispersed relative to withheld CYGNSS observations, with the spread correlating with the reconstruction error. These results indicate improved mean intensity estimates in the higher-coverage subset, with performance still dependent on inner-core sampling.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"18 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2026MS005911","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}