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A Method for Reconstructing Denudation Histories From Big Global Thermochronologic Data, Tested on the Dabie Orogen, Eastern China
IF 3.9 2区 地球科学
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024JB029044
Yuntao Tian, Bojiang Li, Huixia Zhong, Lili Pan, Bin Fu, Zengjie Zhang, Stanisław Mazur
{"title":"A Method for Reconstructing Denudation Histories From Big Global Thermochronologic Data, Tested on the Dabie Orogen, Eastern China","authors":"Yuntao Tian,&nbsp;Bojiang Li,&nbsp;Huixia Zhong,&nbsp;Lili Pan,&nbsp;Bin Fu,&nbsp;Zengjie Zhang,&nbsp;Stanisław Mazur","doi":"10.1029/2024JB029044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB029044","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Denudation histories are of great significance for constraining landscape evolution and underlying tectonic and climatic drivers. Rock exhumation toward the Earth's surface by denudation results in cooling of rocks, as recorded by mineral thermochronometers. Decades of global thermochronologic studies have produced a large database of rock temperature history models, which have been used as indices for denudation. However, quantitative conversion of the data set into denudation histories remains lacking. This study presents a new method for inverting rock cooling paths to produce denudation histories. The method solves the 1-D thermal advection-conduction equation and uses a Bayesian method for searching the denudation rate and geothermal parameter space. In addition to thermochronometric data used by other methods, inputs also include geothermal and geological constraints. We applied the method to explore the post-orogenic denudation history of the Paleozoic–early Mesozoic Dabie orogen using a compilation of published and new rock cooling histories (<i>n</i> = 158). The results show episodic differential Cretaceous (145-110 Ma) and regional Late Cenozoic (10-0 Ma) phases of denudation. Relatively high rates of Cretaceous denudation, which locally continued to the early Cenozoic, occurred along major normal faults in response to the retreat of westward subduction of the Paleo-Pacific plate. Enhanced regional late Cenozoic denudation coincides with coeval intensification of the East Asian monsoon. The method demonstrated here will be useful for utilizing the big global thermochronologic data for quantifying spatiotemporal changes in denudation, to advance our understanding of the interactions among tectonics, climate, landscape evolution and preservation of ore deposits.</p>","PeriodicalId":15864,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth","volume":"130 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143521947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Staying or leaving: Unraveling the dynamics of evacuation decisions among floodplain residents in central Vietnam
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105315
Vo Hoang Ha , Nguyen Cong Dinh , Takeshi Mizunoya
{"title":"Staying or leaving: Unraveling the dynamics of evacuation decisions among floodplain residents in central Vietnam","authors":"Vo Hoang Ha ,&nbsp;Nguyen Cong Dinh ,&nbsp;Takeshi Mizunoya","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Households often refuse to evacuate until floodwaters surpass their coping thresholds. Grasping the root causes of this behavior is crucial for implementing effective interventions amid escalating flood risks. While existing literature offers insights into evacuation decisions for various hazards, it overlooks key motivations and barriers specific to flood evacuation in rural Vietnam. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by investigating the factors influencing rural households' evacuation decisions in response to the significant 2020 floods in Central Vietnam. Data for analysis were gathered through in-person interviews with 407 households across Phong Dien, Quang Dien, and Huong Tra districts of Thua Thien Hue Province. The logistic regression model results disproved the influence of variables associated with sociodemographic characteristics, hazard proximity, and flood risk experience. The findings, meanwhile, underscore the impact of those related to threat appraisal, coping appraisal, trust in external support, and perceived evacuation barriers. Proper assessment of flood threats has emerged as a critical factor in promoting evacuation, whereas overconfidence in one's coping capacity and the overestimation of external support adversely affect evacuation decisions. Concerns about potential property loss further hinder evacuation motivation. The proposed interventions encompass prioritizing educational campaigns to clarify flood risk dynamics, categorizing household structure resilience against floods, highlighting challenges associated with self-evacuation, mitigating reliance on external support, enhancing living conditions in evacuation sites, and implementing security measures during flood seasons.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105315"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Novel methodology for resilience assessment of critical infrastructure considering the interdependencies: A case study in water, transportation and electricity sector
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105271
Bawantha Rathnayaka , Dilan Robert , Varuna Adikariwattage , Chandana Siriwardana , Erica Kuligowski , Sujeeva Setunge , Dilanthi Amaratunga
{"title":"Novel methodology for resilience assessment of critical infrastructure considering the interdependencies: A case study in water, transportation and electricity sector","authors":"Bawantha Rathnayaka ,&nbsp;Dilan Robert ,&nbsp;Varuna Adikariwattage ,&nbsp;Chandana Siriwardana ,&nbsp;Erica Kuligowski ,&nbsp;Sujeeva Setunge ,&nbsp;Dilanthi Amaratunga","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105271","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105271","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critical Infrastructures (CI) are vital for societal and economic stability, yet their resilience against disasters remains inadequately understood with the increasing interdependencies among the CIs. A better understanding of these interdependencies and the dynamic nature of CI functionalities is crucial for advancing disaster resilience assessment within engineering systems. This paper introduces a novel approach using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to assess resilience in interdependent CI systems. The DBN method enables a probabilistic evaluation of system resilience by incorporating interdependencies and capturing the temporal dynamics of system capacities. This approach offers a more detailed perspective on resilience by modelling system functionality using expected values of different functionality states over time. Using a case study in Sri Lankan electricity, water distribution, and road infrastructure sectors and 34 experts, this study examines the complex network of CIs. It demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology. P-values of the Chi-Square test performed between the variation of model-predicted resilience and expert assessments are significantly less than 0.05, confirming the model's validity. Additionally, this study explores the expansion of the methodology for resilience assessment under multiple hazards, emphasizing its real-world effectiveness. The findings highlight the efficacy of the proposed methodology and its potential to assist asset managers, owners, and decision-makers in informed resilience planning and optimization strategies. This comprehensive approach fills critical gaps in existing methodologies, offering a robust framework for assessing CI resilience in a dynamic and systematic nature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105271"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Education system response to an extreme shock analyzing the short, medium and long-term impact of the stronger earthquake in Chile
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105327
Mónica Jiménez-Martínez , Maribel Jiménez-Martínez
{"title":"Education system response to an extreme shock analyzing the short, medium and long-term impact of the stronger earthquake in Chile","authors":"Mónica Jiménez-Martínez ,&nbsp;Maribel Jiménez-Martínez","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Education acts as a crucial engine for economic growth. However, in Chile, a country highly susceptible to earthquakes, these natural hazards threaten to undermine the benefits of an educated population. Given the limited research in this area, this article contributes by analyzing the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of one of the major earthquakes that struck Chile in 2010 on attendance rates across all educational levels. The study employs a robust identification strategy that integrates earthquake intensity measures with residential data and housing damage information to explore variations in exposure by district at the time of the quake. The methodology facilitates a comparative analysis of the earthquake's effects across cities with varying Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) levels and associated housing damage. Various estimation methods and sensitivity checks are implemented to validate the underlying hypotheses. The negative impact of the BioBío earthquake is evident in both the short term (within months of the event) and the medium term (one year following the earthquake), with high school and college students being the most severely affected, even three to five years after the disaster. However, this effect dissipates by 2017. Furthermore, based on the conducted tests, the detrimental effects of the earthquake and tsunami on educational attendance rates become significant only when PGA and housing damage reach extremely high levels. In contrast, no significant effects are observed at lower levels of either variable. Based on the hypotheses examined, several policy recommendations are proposed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105327"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143511390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A complex network approach to quantifying flood resilience in high-density coastal urban areas: A case study of Macau
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105335
Rui Zhang , Yangli Li , Chengfei Li , Tian Chen
{"title":"A complex network approach to quantifying flood resilience in high-density coastal urban areas: A case study of Macau","authors":"Rui Zhang ,&nbsp;Yangli Li ,&nbsp;Chengfei Li ,&nbsp;Tian Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban flood resilience is a critical challenge for high-density coastal cities, where traditional infrastructure-based approaches often fail to capture the dynamic interactions between physical systems, functional recovery, and cascading disruptions. This study introduces a novel resilience assessment framework based on complex network theory, applied to the Macau Peninsula as a case study. By modeling urban infrastructure as an interconnected network of nodes (buildings) and edges (roads), the framework quantifies resilience through three core capacities: resistance, absorption, and recovery. The analysis integrates scenario-based flood simulations with network metrics to assess system vulnerabilities and identify key determinants of resilience. Results reveal significant weaknesses in Macau's high-density urban areas, particularly under compound flood events combining storm surges and extreme rainfall. Findings underscore the critical role of road network redundancy and shelter accessibility, as areas with lower redundancy experience prolonged recovery times. Model validation confirms the framework's effectiveness in quantifying resilience dynamics, though its current focus on physical infrastructure presents limitations in capturing socioeconomic and institutional factors. Nonetheless, this study establishes a scalable foundation for integrating such dimensions in future research. By bridging network topology with functional recovery dynamics, this work advances the theoretical understanding of urban flood resilience while offering actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize infrastructure investments and resilience planning in coastal cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105335"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143521010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fast and lightweight automatic lithology recognition based on efficient vision transformer network
IF 2 4区 地球科学
Solid Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.sesci.2024.100179
Yan Guo , Zhuowu Li , Fujiang Liu , Weihua Lin , Hongchen Liu , Quansen Shao , Dexiong Zhang , Weichao Liang , Junshun Su , Qiankai Gao
{"title":"Fast and lightweight automatic lithology recognition based on efficient vision transformer network","authors":"Yan Guo ,&nbsp;Zhuowu Li ,&nbsp;Fujiang Liu ,&nbsp;Weihua Lin ,&nbsp;Hongchen Liu ,&nbsp;Quansen Shao ,&nbsp;Dexiong Zhang ,&nbsp;Weichao Liang ,&nbsp;Junshun Su ,&nbsp;Qiankai Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.sesci.2024.100179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.sesci.2024.100179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Traditional methods of lithological classification often rely on the expertise of appraisers and the use of sophisticated measuring instruments. These methods are susceptible to staff experience and are time-consuming. To overcome these limitations, researchers have explored the use of rock images and intelligent algorithms to automatically identify rocks. However, models developed for automatic rock properties identification often require high-performance equipment that cannot be readily deployed on lightweight edge devices. To address this problem, we significantly extend our previous research and propose a method for automatic rock properties identification called SBR-EfficientViT. The method is based on an efficient vision converter and builds on our previous training framework. We also developed a training and application flow framework for the method, which can run with memory requirements of less than 720 MB and graphics memory of 1.6 GB. Furthermore, the proposed SBR-EfficientViT-M1 method achieves an impressive accuracy of 94.75%.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54172,"journal":{"name":"Solid Earth Sciences","volume":"10 1","pages":"Article 100179"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vegetation and climate dynamics in Southwestern China during the Han and Jin Dynasties (202 BC-AD 420): Insights from the Spore-pollen and hydrological records from the Chengba site
IF 1.9 3区 地球科学
Quaternary International Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2025.109722
Junna Zhang , Liu Qi , Yaping Li , Weidong Chen , Luhong Zheng , Xueran Wang , Songhan Li , Bingyuan Zhang
{"title":"Vegetation and climate dynamics in Southwestern China during the Han and Jin Dynasties (202 BC-AD 420): Insights from the Spore-pollen and hydrological records from the Chengba site","authors":"Junna Zhang ,&nbsp;Liu Qi ,&nbsp;Yaping Li ,&nbsp;Weidong Chen ,&nbsp;Luhong Zheng ,&nbsp;Xueran Wang ,&nbsp;Songhan Li ,&nbsp;Bingyuan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.quaint.2025.109722","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.quaint.2025.109722","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Han and Jin Dynasties (202 BC-AD 420) were marked by frequent social upheavals and climate fluctuations in Chinese history. Abundant evidence suggests that the central government effectively managed and controlled the southwestern region during this period. Nevertheless, in-depth exploration is necessary to delineate the dynamic interplay between environmental changes and social development. This study conducted chronological, grain-size, and spore-pollen analyses on sediment from the T8SW section at the Chengba site in southwestern China, aiming to investigate the hydrology, vegetation, and climate changes during the Han and Jin Dynasties (202 BC-AD 420). The WAPLS (Weighted Average Partial Least Squares Regression) method was also employed to reconstruct the paleoclimate quantitatively. The results showed that in the early and middle phases of the Western Han Dynasty (202-48 BC), this area was characterized by a subtropical-warm temperate mixed forest and grassland landscape. The Jinguan relic is nestled within a serene riverine bay and wetland expanse, boasting lush vegetation. During the Eastern Han Dynasty to the Jin Dynasty (AD 25–420), with the cooling of the climate and the drying of the sedimentary environment, this area transformed into a warm temperate forest and grassland landscape. The position of the Jinguan relic gradually emerged out of water, evolving into high floodplains and terraces with sparse vegetation. Upon entering the Eastern Han Dynasty, a substantial alteration occurred in pollen concentration and composition, which might have been associated with intricate variations in hydrological environments, climate change, and human activities. Quantitative reconstruction approaches have reconstituted the annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperature of the coldest month (MTco). These data reveal that the climate in the area experienced a ‘warm and humid - cold and dry - warm and humid' cycle from the Han to the Jin Dynasty. Notably, a significant dry climate event occurred around the transition between the Western and Eastern Han Dynasties, approximately AD 8–25. Archaeological and documentary data suggest that changes in human activities within the area were closely linked to variations in vegetation and climate. The shift in fluvial hydrological regimes under the cooling and aridification trend during the Eastern Han Dynasty likely served as the primary catalyst for both the architectural transition from stilt-based to ground-level construction methods, as well as the significant rise in both the quantity and depth of water wells. Simultaneously, the large-scale urban construction and the boom in the mining and smelting industry during the middle and later periods of the Eastern Han Dynasty likely led to selective logging. This activity could have resulted in a significant reduction in the tree population in the area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49644,"journal":{"name":"Quaternary International","volume":"723 ","pages":"Article 109722"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are hurricane-driven forest management decisions coupled with rising urbanization affecting the forest carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico? A case study from Perdido watershed in the Panhandle Florida
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105273
Asiful Alam , Puneet Dwivedi
{"title":"Are hurricane-driven forest management decisions coupled with rising urbanization affecting the forest carbon dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico? A case study from Perdido watershed in the Panhandle Florida","authors":"Asiful Alam ,&nbsp;Puneet Dwivedi","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105273","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the impacts of hurricane-driven forest management and urbanization on forest carbon is vital for balancing climate mitigation and sustainable land use. It is especially true as these factors significantly influence carbon storage, emissions, and forest resilience, shaping global carbon budgets and informing adaptive strategies and policies. Since 2001, urbanization in the Gulf of Mexico has risen annually by 2.55 %, alongside increasing hurricane frequency. This study examines how urban growth and landowner responses to frequent hurricanes affect carbon dynamics in Florida's Perdido watershed, using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model for land use projection and the InVEST model for carbon quantification. Nine scenarios combining low (LUR), current (CUR), and high (HUR) urbanization rates with 0 %, 25 %, and 50 % increases in hurricane frequency (HF) were analyzed. By 2050, urban land ranged from 5.28 % to 6.12 %, while forestland spanned 40.3 %–47.6 %. Forest conservation increased by 3.1 % (LUR+HF50 %) and 3.7 % (HUR+HF50 %) compared to HF25 % scenarios. Carbon storage varied from 466.5 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF25 %) to 1,055.1 thousand metric tons (LUR+HF50 %) and from 1,213.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF25 %) to 1,572.2 thousand metric tons (HUR+HF50 %), reflecting higher carbon sequestration with greater conservation efforts. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to mitigate natural hazards, promote resilience, and support sustainable land use planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105273"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143521011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation
IF 9 1区 地球科学
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7
Jin-Sil Hong, Dongmin Kim, Hosmay Lopez, Sang-Ki Lee, Andrew Mercer, Nathaniel C. Johnson
{"title":"Projected increase in ENSO-induced US winter extreme hydroclimate events in SPEAR large ensemble simulation","authors":"Jin-Sil Hong, Dongmin Kim, Hosmay Lopez, Sang-Ki Lee, Andrew Mercer, Nathaniel C. Johnson","doi":"10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00972-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observational records during the past several decades show a marked increase in boreal winter extreme US hydroclimate events, with extreme floods and droughts becoming more common. Coincidentally, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a key driver of US precipitation and associated extreme hydroclimate on interannual time scales, has also increased in amplitude and is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century. This study examines future changes in ENSO and its impacts on the US winter extreme hydroclimate events (e.g., drought and flood) by using a large ensemble simulation. Results in this study show that both the amplitude of ENSO and ENSO-induced atmospheric teleconnections are projected to strengthen, leading to a significant increase in US precipitation variability and extreme hydroclimate events, albeit with notable regional differences. Signal-to-noise ratio analysis shows that the ENSO signal explains a significantly increased fraction of the total variance in US winter precipitation compared to non-ENSO factors (i.e., noise), suggesting a growing role of ENSO in future US extreme hydroclimate events. Further analysis shows that while both the increase in ENSO amplitude and the atmospheric response to ENSO have a similar impact on the hydroclimate over the Southeast and Southwest US, the amplification of the atmospheric response to ENSO plays a more dominant role in the Northeast US.</p>","PeriodicalId":19438,"journal":{"name":"npj Climate and Atmospheric Science","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":9.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143528248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The “fallacy of composition” as an ethical challenge facing scientific research in disaster-affected areas: The 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and Tsunami
IF 4.2 1区 地球科学
International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105359
Yuta Hara , Kimiko Takeda , Ryohei Yamashita , Ryo Saito , Daisuke Sasaki , Kiyomi Hayashi , Tatsuto Aoki
{"title":"The “fallacy of composition” as an ethical challenge facing scientific research in disaster-affected areas: The 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and Tsunami","authors":"Yuta Hara ,&nbsp;Kimiko Takeda ,&nbsp;Ryohei Yamashita ,&nbsp;Ryo Saito ,&nbsp;Daisuke Sasaki ,&nbsp;Kiyomi Hayashi ,&nbsp;Tatsuto Aoki","doi":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Research surveys in disaster-affected areas always conflict between providing important information and recommendations regarding the actual status of damage, recovery, and reconstruction and, contrastingly, the need for more careful ethical considerations. It has been reported that the 2004 Aceh Tsunami and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, certain research activities caused difficulties for afflicted people and affected areas. The above can be divided into two main categories: the problem of the capacity, burden, and exhaustion of the research subjects and the ethical issue related to the methods, content, and approach of individual studies. However, the former analysis of solutions remains almost completely unaddressed in disaster science. Thus, this study considered how academia should behave, collaborate, and coordinate through the case of Japan in 2024. As a result, while Japan has a comprehensive federation of researchers and academic societies, coordinating the research activities has been challenging. This difficulty stems from the federation’s lack of authority to control academic societies and researchers, lack of consensus building regarding the “fallacy of composition” in disaster science, and the involvement of numerous stakeholders. The plethora of research opportunities and the various grants have been identified as risk factors contributing to project fragmentation and research duplication. It was suggested that questions could improve the composition of grant reviews to prevent research duplication and the depletion of subject areas. Furthermore, it is crucial to pre-determine which university or institution would take the lead when a disaster occurs in each region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":13915,"journal":{"name":"International journal of disaster risk reduction","volume":"119 ","pages":"Article 105359"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143526986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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