International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Compound Hot-Dry Days (CHDDs) and Their Implications on Maize Yields in the Free State Province, South Africa","authors":"Mokhele Moeletsi,&nbsp;Mitsuru Tsubo","doi":"10.1002/joc.70281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70281","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound occurrence of extreme weather events and their impacts on agriculture have been widely investigated in many regions except for South Africa. This study explores the variability of compound hot-dry days (CHDDs) using daily rainfall and temperature data from 1950 to 2023 in the Free State Province. Their trends over time are determined for different 30-year periods starting in 1950. The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the CHDDs was also investigated. To determine the impact of extreme events on food security, the study evaluated an association between CHDDs and maize yields. The results show significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) increasing trends in CHDDs. 30-year period trends starting in 1950 were mostly not significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) except for isolated cases in Bloemfontein and Bothaville. Correlations between CHDDs and Oceanic Niño Index showed significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) positive Pearson correlation. Generally, during El Niño years, the frequency of CHDDs was high in all the stations with the maximum exceeding 140 CHDDs obtained in the 2015/16 season. In contrast, most of the years in which the frequency of CHDDs was below 40 occurred in La Niña years. In addition, CHDDs had a significant (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.01) negative correlation with yield anomalies. The results also showed extremely high negative yield anomalies during El Niño years, while most of the years of extremely high positive yield anomalies occurred in neutral years. The results clearly show linkages between ENSO and CHDDs increasing the likelihood of a reasonable forecast of seasonal CHDDs especially in South Africa where the past results have shown high predictability of the ENSO index. The significant association of CHDDs with maize yields is a factor that can be helpful in projecting the scale of food security and level of international commodity trade for the country. The agricultural sector needs to improve agricultural systems resilience against compound extreme weather events across several commodities.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70281","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exacerbated Impacts of Compound Dry-Hot Events on Vegetation: Critical Thresholds and Spatial Vulnerability Dynamics in Northwest China","authors":"Shuyao Liu,&nbsp;Wenqing Zhang,&nbsp;Liu Liu,&nbsp;Depeng Zuo,&nbsp;Lei Cheng","doi":"10.1002/joc.70266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70266","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Global climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of compound dry-hot events (CDHEs), posing more severe impacts on terrestrial ecosystems than individual extremes, particularly in Northwest China (NWC). However, a comprehensive probabilistic assessment of vegetation vulnerability under CDHEs, particularly, the identification of triggering thresholds for vegetation loss remains limited. This study employed standardised indices of vegetation (NDVI), drought (SPI) and hot conditions (STI) from 1982 to 2018 to develop a Vine copula framework for assessing vegetation vulnerability under CDHEs and identifying the corresponding triggering thresholds for vegetation loss. The results demonstrated that the standardised compound event indicator (SCEI) in NWC indicated a decreasing trend (−0.12 decade⁻¹), reflecting the intensification of CDHEs. This intensification of CDHEs has led to greater ecosystem vulnerability in NWC. Under Severe Dry-Severe Hot conditions (S4: SPI &lt; −1.3 and STI &gt; 1.3), the average probabilities of vegetation loss below the 50th, 30th, 20th and 10th percentiles were 51.2%, 42.3%, 36.2% and 27.2%, respectively. Different vegetation types (croplands, forests and grasslands) exhibited distinct vulnerability patterns, with grasslands being the most sensitive and forests the least. The average SPI/STI thresholds corresponding to vegetation loss below the 50th percentile (mild) and 10th percentile (extreme) were −0.71/0.72 and −1.08/1.35, respectively. It could provide a novel framework for assessing vegetation vulnerability under CDHEs, while simultaneously offering a profound comprehension of ecosystems' response mechanisms to CDHEs.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal Variability of Key Climate Parameters in the Mediterranean Region: Distinct Features From A Long-Term (1940–2023) Analysis","authors":"Christos J. Lolis","doi":"10.1002/joc.70279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70279","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The intra-annual variability of atmospheric circulation and static instability in the Mediterranean region for the 84-year period 1940–2023 is examined with the use of a multivariate statistical approach applied to the mean intra-annual variations of 500 hPa Relative Vorticity and K-index. This long-period analysis is considered necessary for the identification or confirmation of specific peculiarities in the seasonality of the Mediterranean climate. The data used are 1⁰ × 1⁰ mean daily values, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis data set. A data reduction is performed on the long-term mean intra-annual variations of both parameters with a 5-day time resolution. For 500 hPa Relative Vorticity and K-index, four and three modes of mean intra-annual variation are revealed, respectively, corresponding to specific sub-areas of the greater Mediterranean region. Some of the maxima and minima appearing in these modes are directly connected to the main well-known features of the Mediterranean climate, while some others cannot be clearly attributed to specific dynamic, geomorphological or thermal factors. The mean intra-annual variations of the above parameters in the defined areas are also calculated for the two 42-year sub-periods 1940–1981 and 1982–2023 to detect possible long-term changes in the seasonal variability. The results show that the main differences between the two sub-periods refer to K-index, which in the recent 42-year period becomes higher and lower in the warm and cold periods of the year respectively. These changes in static instability characteristics can be considered as one of the main symptoms of the ongoing climatic change.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70279","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Post-Processed CMIP6 Climate Projections for Hydro-Environmental Risk Assessment in the Middle East and Central Asia","authors":"Paolo Reggiani,&nbsp;Amal Talbi,&nbsp;Oleksiy Boyko,&nbsp;Poolad Karimi,&nbsp;Ezio Todini","doi":"10.1002/joc.70261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70261","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The estimation of future water resources availability, which depends on runoff, precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration over medium to long-term time, is an essential facet of regional climate impact analysis and risk estimation. Especially the Middle East (ME) and Central Asia (CA), which are among the most water scarce regions globally, have largely reached the limit of sustainably usable water across their river basins and ecosystems. A steadily growing water demand driven by irrigation in conjunction with structural water resource limitation bears considerable potential for regional tensions on water allocation. Any strategy designed to mitigate such risks requires foremost a plausible estimation of future water availability trends to allow sensible decision-making on controlling water use across affected regions. This concerns irrigation practices and management of large reservoirs. During the last two decades, access to multiple Earth-System Models (ESM) has allowed to generate multi-model ensemble output for probabilistic climate projections. These projections have only been marginally exploited for decision support on risk mitigation for water resources. Here we describe a comprehensive data product of post-processed precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration projections for the 21st century at monthly temporal and half to quarter degree spatial resolutions. The data are obtained by merging the ensemble output of multiple CMIP6 ESMs, after bias correction and variance adjustment over the retrospective 1979–2014 baseline period. The product also issues credibility intervals for quantifying uncertainty and can be used for a variety of hydrological applications, for example to generate future projections of surface runoff and agricultural water use.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70261","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686081","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seasonal Predictions and Their Applications in the Mediterranean Region: Part I—Sources of Predictability and Prediction Skill","authors":"Gualdi Silvio,&nbsp;Javier García-Serrano,&nbsp;Constantin Ardilouze,&nbsp;Silvia Terzago,&nbsp;Veronica Torralba,&nbsp;Wafae Badi,&nbsp;Lauriane Batté,&nbsp;Fatima Driouech,&nbsp;Kristina Fröhlich,&nbsp;Ernesto Rodriguez Camino,&nbsp;Esteban Rodriguez Guisado,&nbsp;Massimiliano Pasqui,&nbsp;Andrea Toreti","doi":"10.1002/joc.70274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70274","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The capability to predict climate fluctuations from sub–seasonal–to–decadal timescales would yield large and significant socio–economic benefits. On the other hand, our limited understanding of the mechanisms and processes responsible for predictability and systematic model errors hampers our ability to simulate and forecast climate variability. As a result, current forecast quality remains relatively unsatisfactory, particularly in the mid-latitudes and in the Mediterranean basin. In recent years, several research studies and collaborative projects have been conducted in order to improve the skill of forecasting systems and the quality of the data and climatic information they produce. This effort has led to substantial advancements in understanding Mediterranean climate variability and its drivers, as well as to improvements in the capability to provide reliable climate predictions for this region. The main objective of this paper is to review and discuss the current understanding of climate variability and sources of predictability in the Mediterranean basin and surrounding areas, to assess the current capability of climate prediction systems in order to provide skilful predictions in this region to feed services in relevant socio-economic sectors. Examples of advanced tools and innovative methodologies recently developed to enhance predictions, both in terms of forecast skill and of the quality of the data they provide (e.g., sub–sampling and bias correction), will also be discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70274","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evapotranspiration Profiles and Trends in Seasonally Dry and Seasonally Humid Tropical Forests","authors":"Lucas de Morais Teixeira,&nbsp;Jório Bezerra Cabral Júnior,&nbsp;Helder José Farias da Silva,&nbsp;Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva,&nbsp;Gabriel de Oliveira,&nbsp;Daniele Tôrres Rodrigues","doi":"10.1002/joc.70277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70277","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Evapotranspiration (ET) is the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration. In Brazil, climatic (humid and semiarid) and biogeographic (e.g., Atlantic Forest—humid and Caatinga—seasonally dry) contrasts influence ET dynamics. This study analyses the spatial and temporal profiles and trends of ET in seasonally humid (Atlantic Forest) and seasonally dry (Caatinga) biomes. Monthly actual ET data (MOD16 Product), precipitation data (INMET) and land cover data (MapBiomas Brazil) from 2001 to 2020 were used. The spatiotemporal characterisation was performed for the dry and rainy quarters and annually. Hypothesis tests (Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope estimator and Pettitt) were applied. Results showed that ET gradually decreases from east (Atlantic Forest) to west (Caatinga) and is consistently higher during the rainiest quarter. On an annual scale, the average accumulated ET is 827.9 mm/year, ranging from 182.6 mm/year (Caatinga) to 2225.9 mm/year (Atlantic Forest). We found that in years/months with higher ET values, rainfall was above average. In other words, ET is positively correlated with precipitation (<i>r</i> = 0.20–0.67), with 5% statistical significance. Significant trends (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) in ET were identified, with opposing patterns. In the southeastern Atlantic Forest, reductions of up to −15 mm/year predominated. In the Caatinga biome, 97.9% of the areas with trends exhibited decreasing ET, indicating an association with deforested regions. On the other hand, some isolated areas in both biomes presented localised increases in ET. We can conclude that ET variations/trends are important indicators of moisture availability and the impacts of improper land management (deforestation). Therefore, a need exists for public policies aimed at vegetation conservation, sustainable water resource management, and the planning of adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70277","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on Precipitation Anomalies in Northeast China During the Late Summer, 2024: A Statistical Assessment Based on Generalised Equilibrium Feedback Analysis","authors":"Yitong Lin,&nbsp;Yihe Fang,&nbsp;Chunyu Zhao,&nbsp;Yu Zhang,&nbsp;Chang Liu,&nbsp;Xinze Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.70269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70269","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>During the late summer (July–August) of 2024, the Northeast China (NEC) suffered extreme precipitation and severe floods, with rainfall in southern NEC marking the highest recorded since 1985. Using the daily precipitation records from 245 national meteorological stations across the NEC, this study analyses the characteristics of the rainfall anomalies and the associated large-scale circulation patterns in the late summer of 2024. Based on the generalised equilibrium feedback analysis (GEFA) method, we investigate the response of precipitation and atmospheric circulation anomalies to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across various oceanic basins. The results indicate that the NEC precipitation anomalies in the late summer of 2024 exhibit a remarkable response to both the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the North Pacific SST (NP1) and the second EOF mode of the tropical Atlantic SST (TA2). The NP1 features widespread positive SST anomalies extending from the Kuroshio Extension to the west coast of North America, and the TA2 is marked by positive anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic and negative anomalies in the southeastern region. Both modes induce enhanced precipitation over NEC, with anomaly centres located southward, closely matching the observations. Specifically, the positive SST anomalies of the NP1 mode enhance the upward heat flux over the Japan Sea and its eastern regions, inducing positive geopotential height anomalies over Japan, thereby leading to an enhanced and northward anticyclone in the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, for the TA2 mode, the positive SST anomalies in the northern tropical Atlantic are closely associated with the downstream propagating Rossby wave train, resulting in an anomalous circulation pattern characterised by active Northeast China cold vortexes over the NEC and an intensified western Pacific subtropical high. These circulation anomalies facilitate the northward transport of warm and humid airflows to the NEC and promote the frequent convergence of cold and warm airflows over the NEC region, thereby contributing to the anomalously more precipitation over the NEC in the late summer of 2024. By quantifying the relative contributions of different SST modes, this study helps better target key precursors of NEC summer rainfall anomalies, which provides useful guidance for seasonal climate forecasting in NEC.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes of Compound Droughts and Heatwaves Events and Their Driving Factors in the Jianghuai Region, China","authors":"Xiaolei Chai,&nbsp;Yixing Yin,&nbsp;Shanlei Sun,&nbsp;Liman Cui,&nbsp;Ziyue Xue,&nbsp;Yuqing Jiang,&nbsp;Wenxu Zhu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70271","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>With the continuous warming of the global climate, the frequency of Compound Droughts and Heatwaves (CDHWs) is increasing across the world. The Jianghuai Region of China experiences frequent CDHWs, while research on CDHW events is relatively limited. This study upgrades the regional mechanistic understanding by moving beyond statistical analysis to a complete process-chain perspective. We first analysed the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of CDHWs in the Jianghuai Region of China from 1961 to 2018. CDHWs were identified using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and daily maximum temperature and their frequency, duration and intensity were analysed with Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. And then the study systematically explored the occurrence mechanisms of CDHWs in the Jianghuai Region by analysing the impacts of water and energy characteristics, land-atmosphere coupling, circulation patterns and sea surface temperature modes (mainly ENSO) on the CDHWs. The results are as follows: (1) The frequency of CDHWs showed a downward trend, while the intensity showed an upward trend. The first mode exhibited a uniform pattern across the region, while the second mode showed a dipole structure; (2) In the typical strong years, increased sensible heat flux, decreased latent heat flux and enhanced high-pressure systems exacerbated drought and heat conditions in the region; (3) CSISM-SLHF showed positive anomalies, indicating ‘moisture-limited’ land-atmosphere coupling in the typical strong years, while the land-atmosphere coupling was ‘energy-limited’ in the typical weak years; (4) Anomalously low sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific (i.e., La Niña events) significantly impacted CDHWs in the strong years. The dynamic mechanism involved the coupling of the Walker and Hadley circulations, which ultimately affected vertical motion and the WPSH in the Jianghuai Region. The findings established a process-oriented predictive framework for CDHWs and provided a scientific basis for monitoring, early warning and adaptation strategies against such compound extremes in the Jianghuai Region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping Diurnal Heat Stress in Nigeria: Spatial and Temporal Changes Over Seven Decades","authors":"Mohammed Abdu Nasara,&nbsp;Najeebullah Khan,&nbsp;Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad,&nbsp;Amyrhul Abu Bakar,&nbsp;Mohd Ridza Mohd Haniffah,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1002/joc.70262","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70262","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>While thermal stress risks are global, Sahelian Africa's localised impacts remain understudied despite rapidly intensifying heat exposure. Climate hazards associated with human thermal stress present considerable challenges to Nigeria's public health and socio-economic activities, with effects intensified by the nation's heterogeneous climatic characteristics. This research examines the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress in Nigeria from 1950 to 2023. WBGT was selected as the core indicator due to its strong relevance in humid climates and its ability to incorporate metabolic and radiative heat load. Hourly wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) data were derived from 0.1° × 0.1° ERA5-Land hourly reanalysis datasets using the Liljegren method and subsequently analysed for significant trends using the Mann–Kendall trend test. The results showed that Nigeria's annual mean of daily peak WBGT varies from 24°C in the south to above 28°C in the north. Over the 74-year period, WBGT increased by approximately 1.2°C in northern Nigeria and by about 0.8°C–1.0°C in the southern regions, with northern regions showing the strongest trends (~0.20°C/decade). The late period (1987–2023) consistently exhibited higher WBGT values than the early period (1950–1986), with increases most pronounced during early morning and late evening hours. Late-period WBGT values increased across all zones by 0.8°C–1.2°C from September to November, with the largest shifts in southern Nigeria during March–May. These rising WBGT levels have direct implications for public health, outdoor labour productivity and climate adaptation planning—potentially reducing agricultural and construction sector labour capacity by 10%–15% during peak heat months under current thresholds. The day and nighttime variability of WBGT decreased from north to south. These findings underscore urgent needs for improved urban planning (e.g., heat-resilient infrastructure, shading, ventilation) and stronger rural health access systems to manage growing heat-related risks. Overall, the study highlights escalating nationwide heat stress and calls for targeted adaptation strategies, including early-warning systems, expansion of cooling access, occupational heat-safety guidelines and heat-sensitive urban and agricultural planning.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entropy-Based Analysis of Evaporation Variability: Assessing Climatic Parameters Using Wavelet Coherence and GeoDetector","authors":"Sepideh Choobe,&nbsp;Behnoush Farokhzadeh,&nbsp;Rasool Imani","doi":"10.1002/joc.70263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70263","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Evaporation is a pivotal process in the hydrological cycle, particularly in water-scarce regions under climate change pressures. This study presents an integrated framework combining permutation entropy (PE), GeoDetector and wavelet coherence (WTC) to analyse evaporation variability across Iran's diverse climatic zones. Daily meteorological observations (1995–2024) were aggregated to monthly values for preprocessing, from which long-term station-wise climatic summaries were derived for GeoDetector analysis, while WTC was applied to the monthly series and PE was computed using the original daily evaporation data. For WTC and GeoDetector analyses, these daily observations were aggregated into monthly values, whereas PE was computed from the original daily evaporation time series to preserve high-frequency variability. GeoDetector results indicate that minimum temperature (26%), mean temperature (21%) and sunshine duration (12%) are the strongest contributors to evaporation variability, followed by humidity (16%), while precipitation (5%) and wind speed (4%) have smaller effects. The combined interaction of temperature-related variables further amplifies their influence (up to 47% explanatory power). WTC analysis reveals significant coherence between evaporation and both temperature and sunshine duration at 6–24 month and annual scales, whereas wind speed and humidity show weaker or intermittent associations. These findings provide quantitative evidence of the climatic controls on evaporation and demonstrate the effectiveness of entropy-based methods in capturing nonlinear and multi-scale variability. Such insights are essential for improving hydrological models, predicting water availability and guiding adaptive water-resource management under climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147686118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}