International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"The Examination of an Improved Analogue Method for Gridded Temperature Variation Reconstruction","authors":"Xuezhen Zhang,&nbsp;Xiaoyue Yan,&nbsp;Maowei Wu,&nbsp;Jingyun Zheng","doi":"10.1002/joc.8755","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8755","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The analogue method (AM) is an approach for climate field reconstruction through combining proxy data and modelling data. This study improved the quantitative method of analogue pattern through considering the spatial distribution non-uniformity of proxy data (i.e., <i>k</i>\u0000 _{\u0000 <i>p</i>\u0000} term) and temperature changes capturing ability of proxy data (<i>v</i>\u0000 _{\u0000 <i>p</i>\u0000} term). Meanwhile, this study carries out pseudo-proxy experiments on temperature variations in the eastern Central Asia-East Asia region from 1902 to 1992 to examine the feasibility of the improved AM. The reconstruction results derived from improved AM match well with the instrumental data in terms of the temporal–spatial characteristics of temperature variation, with a correlations coefficient (<i>r</i>) of 0.5 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) for the mean annual temperature (MAT) series, which is higher than that from original AM. The accuracy of the reconstruction results derived from improved AM is primarily depending on the ability of proxy data to capture temperature variations, and is secondly depending on the quantity of available proxy data. In the case of 75 pseudo-proxy maintaining the exactly same distribution with available proxy data but prescribed explaining variances of 100%, 66%, and 33%, there are respectively correlations of <i>r</i> = 0.54, 0.51, and 0.44 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) between reconstructed and instrumental MAT series. When dealing with real proxies, whose explaining variances range from 4% to 24%, the correlation decreases to <i>r</i> = 0.28 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05). For a prescribed explaining variance of 100%, corresponding to 75, 37, and 5 proxies, the correlations are <i>r</i> = 0.54, 0.50, and 0.35 (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) respectively. These findings demonstrate the potential value of improved AM on the gridded temperature variation reconstruction and highlight the importance of proxy data quality.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749661","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Multi-Day Precipitation Extremes and Their Linkages With Atmospheric Moisture Flux Over India","authors":"T. H. Gaspar,&nbsp;R. M. Trigo,&nbsp;A. M. Ramos,&nbsp;A. S. Raghuvanshi,&nbsp;A. Russo,&nbsp;P. M. M. Soares,&nbsp;T. M. Ferreira,&nbsp;A. Agarwal","doi":"10.1002/joc.8751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8751","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Indian subcontinent is dominated by a very pronounced summer monsoon season from June to September and a less intense autumn monsoon, both posing major challenges to the densely populated regions, namely through flash floods and landslides. Moreover, the spatial patterns and temporal extent of extreme precipitation events are not uniform across India, with event's durations varying across regions and multiple triggering factors. Here, we make use of a high-resolution daily precipitation dataset covering the entire Indian territory, from 1951 to 2022, to analyse multi-day precipitation extremes and their linkages with regional atmospheric moisture fluxes. We consider 10 sub-regions of India, characterised by different climatic regimes and apply an objective ranking of extreme precipitation events, across various time scales, ranging from 1 to 10 days. Obtained results confirm that the method accurately detects and ranks the most extreme precipitation events in each region, providing information on the daily evolution of the magnitude (and spatial extent affected) of high precipitation values in each region. Moreover, results show that top rank events can be associated with different types of storms affecting the four main coastal regions of India. In particular, some top rank events can be critically linked to long duration events (e.g., 10 days) that can be missed in ranks for shorter duration (e.g., 1–3 days) periods, thus stressing the need to employ multi-day precipitation extremes ranking. Finally, an in-depth analysis of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport is presented for the top 10-day events influencing the four coastal regions of India. Results show low pressure systems, which persist over multiple days and play a critical role in linking IVT to MDPEs across the Indian subcontinent. Overall, we are confident that our findings are valuable in advancing disaster risk reduction strategies, optimising water resource management practices, and formulating climate change adaptation strategies specifically tailored for the Indian subcontinent.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8751","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can CMIP6 Models Accurately Reproduce Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Across China?","authors":"Hui Shen,&nbsp;Jianduo Li,&nbsp;Guocan Wu,&nbsp;Aizhong Ye,&nbsp;Yuna Mao","doi":"10.1002/joc.8794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8794","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) plays a fundamental role in the climate system. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides a valuable framework for assessing global climate model performance, but gaps remain in evaluating its ET estimates, particularly in China. To fill this gap, we employed the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and the water balance ET method to validate the CMIP6 ET outputs from 1980 to 2014 at both national and river basin scales. Key findings include: (1) GLEAM ET performs comparably to the water balance method, making it reliable for validating CMIP6 ET outputs. From 1980 to 2014, the annual mean ET in GLEAM for China ranges from 355 to 411 mm/year. In contrast, most CMIP6 models overestimate ET, with the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean ranging from 524 to 542 mm/year, showing considerable variation among models. Spatially, the MME overestimates ET across over 90% of China. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) results align closely with reference data, with overestimation concentrated in southwest China. (2) At the national scale, CMIP6 trends range from −0.36 to 0.58 mm/year², which contrasts sharply with the GLEAM trend of 1.27 mm/year². At the basin scale, most models overestimate annual ET compared to GLEAM, with discrepancies particularly evident in the major river basins. The smallest difference in ET trend simulation occurs in the Northwest River basin, where model distributions are more concentrated, while the largest discrepancies appear in the Pearl River basin, where model performance is more scattered. Furthermore, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analysis reveals high ensemble consistency in regions such as the Haihe, Yellow, Yangtze, Pearl and Songliao River basins, indicating more reliable model performance in these areas. This study contributes to enhancing the reliability and accuracy of climate projections, which is essential for informed decision-making and policy formulation in atmospheric science.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Vegetation and Land Surface Temperature in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Sites From 2010 to 2023","authors":"Mazen E. Assiri,&nbsp;Md. Arfan Ali,&nbsp;Lama Alamri,&nbsp;Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui,&nbsp;Ayman S. Ghulam,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1002/joc.8781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8781","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Saudi Arabia has one of the greatest water shortages and the least vegetation in the world, which is potentially exacerbating the issue of environmental impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the interaction between climate change, vegetation dynamics and land surface temperature (LST). The present study investigates the spatio-temporal distributions, variations, change detection and trends of vegetation dynamics and surface temperature over eight agricultural sites in Saudi Arabia using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and LST from Landsat 7 (Enhance Thematic Mapper Plus: ETM⁺) and Landsat 8 (operational land imager: OLI) measurements for the period 2010–2023. The study also examined the relationship between NDVI, LST and climate variables such as air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and soil moisture. Results showed that an NDVI &gt; 0.20 represents vegetation in Saudi Arabia. Higher values of NDVI were found in Baysh, Jazan province, compared to other agricultural sites. Significant annual and seasonal variations in NDVI were also observed across eight major agricultural sites in Saudi Arabia, attributable to the region's varying climate conditions. Vegetation expansion in 2023 exceeded that in 2014 in Buraydah (304.34 km²), Tabarjal (63.81 km²), Hail (33.20 km²), Al Qirw (22.53 km²) and Baysh (3.07 km²), while reductions were noted in Wadi Al Dawasir (274.58 km²), Tabuk (88.56 km²) and Al Ahsa (27.30 km²). The LST over soil and vegetated surfaces showed that vegetation notably reduced LST at Hail (3.14°C), Al Ahsa and Wadi Al Dawasir (5.43°C), Buraydah (4.53°C), Baysh (2.71°C), Al Qirw (5.17°C), Tabuk (6.24°C) and Tabarjal (3.13°C). The study found that NDVI, LST and climate variables are positively and negatively correlated, which indicates a significant impact of climate change on vegetation patterns. The findings of this study are highly relevant for informing agricultural and environmental policy development in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on enhancing vegetation cover, mitigating the impacts of rising temperatures and advancing sustainable agricultural practices to address the challenges posed by climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice and Albedo: Impacts of Ocean-Atmospheric Processes","authors":"M Swathi,&nbsp;Aakriti Srivastava,&nbsp;Avinash Kumar,&nbsp;Juhi Yadav,&nbsp;Dinesh Chandra Gupta,&nbsp;Rahul Mohan","doi":"10.1002/joc.8791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8791","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Surface albedo (SAL), a critical factor in climate studies, significantly impacts the Earth's radiation budget and sea ice dynamics. The long-term spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic SAL were derived from the third edition of the Cloud, Albedo, and Surface Radiation Dataset (CLARA-A3). The analysis focused on spring and summer across five longitudinal sectors around Antarctica. The relationships of sea ice concentration (SIC) and SAL with climatic variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), 2 m air temperature (T2m), turbulent heat flux, and total cloud cover are explored in detail. The study examined SAL changes in two distinct timescales, pre-2015 (1979–2015) and post-2015 (2016–2021), to understand sea ice variations and trends in Antarctic climate change. The study revealed contrasting summer SAL trends, with a positive trend pre-2015 and a decreasing trend post-2016 across most of Antarctica, except the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, which showed an opposite trend. West Antarctica exhibited higher SAL compared to East Antarctica. SAL and SIC were significantly negatively correlated with SST, T2m, and turbulent heat flux across all sectors. Cross-seasonal lead–lag analysis indicated that increased turbulent heat flux was followed by an increase in SAL after 1–5 months. Wind patterns showed that winds from higher to lower latitudes increased SIC and SAL, while winds from lower to higher latitudes reduced SIC. Post-2015, notable wind direction reversals were observed in the Antarctic Peninsula during spring. Sectors with higher cloud cover absorbed more ocean heat, reducing turbulent heat flux and affecting SAL. Overall, post-2015 observations highlighted major shifts in sea ice dynamics and SAL trends during both spring and summer seasons. The SIC decreased markedly across all sectors, with the Weddell Sea showing the most significant reduction. This study highlights regional and seasonal variations in SAL and its interactions with SIC and climatic factors, emphasising shifts in trends post-2015.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Snow Scenarios for Northern Europe Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Data","authors":"Petri Räisänen,&nbsp;Anna Luomaranta,&nbsp;Kirsti Jylhä","doi":"10.1002/joc.8795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8795","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The ongoing climate change alters the snow conditions. This paper evaluates these changes in Northern Europe including Fennoscandia and the Baltic Sea region, based on data from the newest generation of global climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6; CMIP6). Thirteen CMIP6 models are selected for the analysis based on the availability of daily snow data and the models' performance in simulating global and Northern European climate and snow conditions in Finland. The analysis focuses on four quantities: the largest daily value of snow water equivalent during the winter SWE_max, and the length, start day and end day of the longest continuous snow period. The models project an overall shift towards less snowy conditions with progressing warming: reduced SWE_max and shorter snow seasons that start later and end earlier. This is seen already in recent (1951–2023) trends, with largest simulated trends in southern Fennoscandia and in the Baltic countries and smaller trends in the northern inland regions. ERA5-Land reanalysis data mainly agree with this spatial pattern, although with some notable differences. The decrease of snow continues into the future (2023–2100), with larger trends projected for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios with larger radiative forcing. Also, larger changes are projected for southern than northern Fennoscandia. For example, for the moderate emission scenario SSP245, snow seasons around 2090 are projected to be nearly 50 days shorter than in 1981–2010 in southern Finland but only 30 days shorter in Finnish Lapland. However, there is substantial quantitative uncertainty in the trends in snow conditions, even for a fixed emission scenario. For example, for SSP245, the one-sigma uncertainty due to natural variability alone is estimated to be at least 30%–50% of the multi-model mean trends in 2023–2100 for all snow-season metrics considered.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8795","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasingly Seasonal Jet Stream Raises Risk of Co-Occurring Flooding and Extreme Wind in Great Britain","authors":"John K. Hillier,&nbsp;Hannah C. Bloomfield,&nbsp;Colin Manning,&nbsp;Freya Garry,&nbsp;Len Shaffrey,&nbsp;Paul Bates,&nbsp;Dhirendra Kumar","doi":"10.1002/joc.8763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8763","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Insurers and risk managers for critical infrastructure such as transport or power networks typically do not account for flooding and extreme winds happening at the same time in their quantitative risk assessments. We explore this potentially critical underestimation of risk from these co-occurring hazards through studying events using the regional 12 km resolution UK Climate Projections for a 1981–1999 baseline and projections of 2061–2079 (RCP8.5). We create a new wintertime (October–March) set of 3427 wind events to match an existing set of fluvial flow extremes and design innovative multi-event e<i>pisodes</i> (Δ<i>t</i> of 1–180 days long) that reflect how periods of adverse weather affect society (e.g., through damage). We show that the probability of co-occurring wind-flow episodes in Great Britain (GB) is underestimated 2–4 times if events are assumed independent. Significantly, this underestimation is greater both as severity increases and episode length reduces, highlighting the importance of considering risk from closely consecutive storms (Δ<i>t</i> ~ 3 days) and the most severe storms. In the future (2061–2079), joint wind-flow extremes are twice as likely as during 1981–1999. Statistical modelling demonstrates that changes may significantly exceed thermodynamic expectations of higher river flows in a wetter future climate. The largest co-occurrence increases happen in mid-winter (DJF) with changes in the North Atlantic jet stream an important driver; we find the jet is strengthened and squeezed into a southward-shifted latitude window (45°–50° N) giving typical future conditions that match instances of high flows and joint extremes impacting GB today. This strongly implies that the large-scale driving conditions (e.g., jet stream state) for a multi-impact ‘perfect storm’ will vary by country; understanding regional drivers of weather hazards over climate timescales is vital to inform risk mitigation and planning (e.g., diversification and mutual aid across Europe).</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8763","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cities and Climate Change","authors":"Matthias Roth,&nbsp;Enric Aguilar,&nbsp;Winston Chow","doi":"10.1002/joc.8801","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8801","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We are pleased to present this special virtual collection of articles, highlighting the multifaceted interactions between cities, local climates, and global anthropogenic climate change.</p><p>Climate change and urbanisation are the two global megatrends that transform human life and, at the same time, directly impact each other. Urban areas have the highest density of human populations and experience altered atmospheric conditions due to anthropogenic modification of natural physical settings and extra emissions of air pollutants and trace gases. One of the most obvious examples of climate modification due to humans is the urban heat island (UHI). This phenomenon describes urban regions, which experience higher temperatures than their rural, undeveloped surroundings, particularly at night, serving as a clear example of localised urban climate change.</p><p>Cities are broadly recognised as central to global climate change, owing to their significant greenhouse gas emissions driven by dense populations and concentrated economic activities, which contribute to anthropogenic global warming. Cities simultaneously contribute to climate change and remain vulnerable to its impacts from extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and heatwaves. On the other hand, cities are integral to developing solutions that drive climate action, possessing the potential to significantly reduce climate risks and greenhouse gas emissions associated with urban areas and activities.</p><p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is currently in its seventh assessment cycle, which includes a Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, set for release in early 2027 (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/special-report-on-climate-change-and-cities/). In support of this special report, the <i>International Journal of Climatology</i> offers this curated virtual collection of recent, relevant research articles published in the period between 2020 and 2024.</p><p>These themes are curated to contribute towards literature assessment or urban climate scientific research that can be considered in all five chapters of the Special Report. Our hope is that results from these studies can yield important policy-relevant information for urban stakeholders to implement policies and decisions towards the end of climate resilience and sustainability.</p><p>We trust that you will enjoy this special selection and find it inspiring.</p><p><b>Matthias Roth:</b> conceptualization, writing – original draft, writing – review and editing, investigation, methodology. <b>Enric Aguilar:</b> writing – review and editing, supervision. <b>Winston Chow:</b> writing – review and editing.</p><p>The authors declare no conflicts of interest.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8801","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aridity on the Rise: Spatial and Temporal Shifts in Climate Aridity in Spain (1961–2020)","authors":"Santiago Beguería,&nbsp;Víctor Trullenque-Blanco,&nbsp;Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano,&nbsp;J. Carlos González-Hidalgo","doi":"10.1002/joc.8775","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8775","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate aridity (the long-term balance between water availability through precipitation and the atmospheric evaporative demand) has a fundamental role in determining water availability and the geographic distribution of ecosystems and agricultural regions, and plays a crucial role in shaping ecological transitions under current climate change. We computed the Aridity Index, computed as the ratio of precipitation to reference evapotranspiration, over Spain for the period 1961–2020. Here we present spatially detailed climatologies of the Aridity Index, at the annual and the monthly scales, and an assessment of changes between the normal periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. The results show a transition towards reduced values of the Aridity Index (i.e., towards drier conditions) at the annual scale, which was more intense in the Canary Islands (where 16.3% of the territory transitioned towards more arid climate categories) than in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands (11.6%). At the monthly level, the most striking changes over mainland Spain occurred in June, with 39.7% of the territory transitioning towards more arid categories, while transitions towards more humid conditions have only been relevant in March (23.5%) and October (13.0%) and did not compensate for the aridification trend when the whole year is considered. In the Canary Islands, the strongest changes occurred in May (22.6%) and September (19.4%), although drying trends were found almost in all months except the summer.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8775","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diurnal Pattern of Heat Stress Over South Asia: A Wet Bulb Globe Temperature-Based Analysis From 1984 to 2023","authors":"Najeebullah Khan,&nbsp;Mohammad Kamruzzaman,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1002/joc.8797","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8797","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Assessing the diurnal characteristics of heat stress is crucial for understanding its daily dynamics and impacts. This study evaluates various diurnal characteristics of heat stress using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) over South Asia from 1984 to 2023. The Copernicus Climate Change Service hourly ERA5 dataset was used to calculate the WBGT using the Liljegren method to assess the hourly and daily heat stress, heatwave events, duration and diurnal range for different WBGT thresholds. The results revealed significant disparities in heat stress in different South Asian regions. The western and southeastern regions are more susceptible to extreme WBGT (≥ 32.2°C), while severe WBGT (≥ 31.1°C and &lt; 32.2°C) predominantly affected central and eastern Pakistan and southern India. The western part of South Asia experiences an average of 5.8 heatwave events, with a cumulative total of 580 h. The diurnal range indicated a WBGT range of more than 8°C in western and southeastern regions. Conversely, the areas with no heat stress are predominantly located in the Himalayas and northern Afghanistan. The average annual extreme WBGT hours in western South Asia increased by 120 h between the early (1984–2003) and late (2004–2023) periods, while the extreme WBGT days increased by 15 days. Other characteristics of WBGT also increased in the recent decades compared to 1984–2003, suggesting the implementation of measures to mitigate future WBGT increases. These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies to address escalating heat stress in the region, especially in vulnerable and highly populated areas of South Asia.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}