International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Unravelling Individual and Joint Effects of Large-Scale Climate Modes and Surface Weather Features on Streamflow in the Murray River, Australia","authors":"Bryson C. Bates,&nbsp;Andrew J. Dowdy","doi":"10.1002/joc.70000","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.70000","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Considerable effort has been expended on finding linkages between regional hydroclimate and large-scale climate variability modes on interannual to decadal time scales. Most of these studies have investigated the influence of modes as a set of independent individuals rather than as a system of possibly interacting variables. Moreover, the impacts of interactions between modes and local-scale weather features are rarely explored or placed in a modelling framework capable of unravelling multivariate complexities in the hydroclimatic system. This study examines the influence of climate modes and surface weather features on monthly streamflow in the Murray River Basin, Australia, over a 124-year period (July 1895–December 2019). A Bayesian network analysis is used to extract the key modes and surface weather features and quantify the strengths and directions of cross-variable relationships. Expanding window and block bootstrap methods are used to ascertain the sensitivity of the model structure and parameter estimates to trends and background hydroclimatic variability over the full study period and a shorter sample (March 1896–February 2004), respectively. It is found that antecedent flow conditions, subtropical ridge intensity and average zonal sea level pressure (SLP) gradient have a direct and robust effect on Murray River flow. The influences exerted by the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode were sensitive to the period selected for analysis, as was the set of variables that defined the initial state of the hydroclimatic system as characterised by the selected Bayesian networks. These results indicate potential long-term changes in the influence of climate drivers on the Murray River flow. The selected network for the full study period explained some 78% of the total variance in the streamflow series. This result indicates that the network has high explanatory power. These findings could be useful for future applications such as guidance on long-term climate outlooks for the achievement of desired social, environmental and cultural benefits in the Murray River Basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70000","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145102220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Challenges in Predicting Yangtze River Basin Summer Temperatures: The Role of Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Forcing","authors":"Jinqing Zuo,&nbsp;Xiaolong Jia,&nbsp;Tao Feng,&nbsp;Shanjun Cheng,&nbsp;Hui Gao,&nbsp;Xuannan Wang,&nbsp;Li Li,&nbsp;Jingpeng Liu,&nbsp;Jie Tang,&nbsp;Lei Wang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70041","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The densely populated and economically crucial Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China has experienced an increasing trend of high-temperature events during recent summers, highlighting the importance of skillful seasonal prediction for effective mitigation and adaptation. However, the sources of predictability and origins of prediction errors for YRB summer temperatures remain poorly understood. This study investigates the predictability of YRB summer (July–August) temperatures using hindcasts from three state-of-the-art dynamical climate models to better understand these sources. While all models demonstrate some skill at a 0-month lead, this capability becomes severely limited at lead times of 1 month or longer. Analysis of the models' ability to simulate the driving physical mechanisms reveals that while they reasonably capture the observed relationship between YRB summer temperatures and the associated local atmospheric circulation pattern linked to a Eurasian mid-to-high latitude wave train, significant uncertainties in predicting this wave train itself constrain overall skill. Furthermore, observational evidence shows a significant out-of-phase relationship between YRB summer temperatures and concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central–eastern Pacific, a relationship that the models fail to reproduce. This failure stems from varying model biases in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to equatorial Pacific SST forcing, hindering their ability to capture the Pacific–YRB teleconnection. Therefore, deficiencies in simulating both the Eurasian circulation and the tropical Pacific forcing significantly contribute to the limited seasonal prediction skill for YRB summer temperatures, underscoring the need for improved representation of mid-latitude dynamics, tropical air–sea interactions and associated atmospheric teleconnections in dynamical models.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessment of Future Precipitation Changes in Mediterranean Climate Regions From CMIP6 Ensemble","authors":"Patricia Tarín-Carrasco,&nbsp;Desislava Petrova,&nbsp;Laura Chica-Castells,&nbsp;Jelena Lukovic,&nbsp;Xavier Rodó,&nbsp;Ivana Cvijanovic","doi":"10.1002/joc.70039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70039","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Previous studies have indicated a large model disagreement in the future projections of precipitation changes over Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions worldwide. The majority of these highly populated regions have experienced major droughts in the recent decades, raising concerns about future precipitation changes and their impacts. Here, we examine precipitation projections in five MedClim regions from the CMIP6 ensemble, focusing on model consensus regarding the direction and magnitude of future precipitation changes. Our analysis spans the period 2050–2079 relative to 1970–1999, considering two climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) across the Mediterranean Basin (MED), California (CAL), the central coast of Chile (SAA), the Cape Province area of South Africa (SAF), and southwest Australia (AUS). The CMIP6 ensemble mean suggests that annual mean cumulative precipitation will decrease over all the regions except northern California, primarily due to a reduction in winter precipitation, and except over the Mediterranean Basin, where the most significant decrease occurs in autumn. Model agreement on the sign of future precipitation changes is high where the ensemble mean indicates a decrease, but lower where an increase or no changes are projected. Additionally, consecutive dry days (CDD) are expected to increase across all regions, whilst consecutive wet days (CWD) are expected to decrease. Maximum 1-day precipitation is projected to increase uniformly across all regions. We conclude that despite substantial improvements to the new CMIP6 generation of models, the model spread in future precipitation projections in MedClim regions continues to be high. Impact studies need to account for these uncertainties and consider the whole intermodel range of projected precipitation changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70039","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of Tropopause Folds on Regional Extreme Cold Events in Yunnan of China","authors":"Yucheng Zi,&nbsp;Zhenxia Long,&nbsp;Jinyu Sheng,&nbsp;Gaopeng Lu,&nbsp;William Perrie,&nbsp;Ziniu Xiao,&nbsp;Hongming Yan,&nbsp;Yan Jin","doi":"10.1002/joc.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The impact of tropopause folds (TFs) on the regional extreme cold events (RECEs) in Yunnan Province is examined. This province is situated in China's Low-Latitude Highlands (CLLH). In the 60-year period 1961–2020, 140 RECEs in Yunnan are identified from the air temperature measurements at 125 meteorological observation sites. Among these RECEs, 115 events are accompanied by TFs in the CLLH and referred to as TF-type events and the remaining 25 are not accompanied by TFs and termed as NTF-type events. In comparison with the NTF-type events, TF-type RECEs are generally more severe and last longer with wider areas impacted over southern China. On average, TF-type (NTF-type) events last about 2.5 (1.3) days, have a daily intensity of about 1.7 (1.2)°C, a maximum daily intensity of about 4.2 (3.2)°C and affect 54 (37) sites. For both types of RECEs, the tropopause generally exhibits a lower altitude over northeastern China, showing an intensified East Asian trough and an anomalous cyclonic circulation in this region. During the TF-type events, however, cold air is transported downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere over southwestern China. The anomalous cyclonic circulation over East Asia extends farther to the southwest, accompanied by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over India. Thus, compared to NTF-type events, the northerly wind anomalies over northeast Yunnan tend to be stronger in TF-type events, enhancing the cold air advection in the region. Our results show that the RECEs in Yunnan are significantly affected by TFs.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the Regulation Effects of Vegetation Restoration on Precipitation Patterns Over the Loess Plateau, China","authors":"Chao Li,&nbsp;Guangshuai Li,&nbsp;Bin Zhu,&nbsp;Xi Chen,&nbsp;Chong-Yu Xu,&nbsp;Zengxin Zhang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70006","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.70006","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The large-scale vegetation restoration program implemented across China's Loess Plateau altered regional precipitation regimes by modifying biophysical processes in surface-atmosphere interactions. This study integrated multi-decadal satellite records (1982–2018) with WRF model simulations to reveal the biophysical mechanisms underlying vegetation-mediated precipitation modulation. The results indicated that: (1) The response of precipitation to vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau was not obvious between 1982 and 1999. However, precipitation began to trend upward after 2000, with arid regions experiencing higher multi-year average precipitation compared to semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Nonetheless, the positive effect of vegetation restoration on regional precipitation started to diminish after 2015. (2) Vegetation restoration increased evapotranspiration, altering atmospheric humidity and air movement via changes in surface hydrothermal dynamics and energy conversion, thus boosting regional precipitation. Vegetation restoration contributed 3.68 mm/a to regional PRE between 2000 and 2018, accounting for about 31.32% of the PRE growth rate. (3) Vegetation restoration could compensate for the soil moisture consumption from increased evapotranspiration by increasing precipitation; however, after 2015, the beneficial effects of vegetation restoration on precipitation and soil moisture started to wane. These results indicated that vegetation restoration initiated a positive feedback loop, enhancing both soil moisture and regional precipitation. However, an excessive increase in vegetation might exacerbate regional water scarcity and pose a significant threat to the local ecology if precipitation and soil moisture did not increase proportionally. This finding held crucial implications for guiding vegetation restoration efforts on the Loess Plateau, optimising water resource management and promoting ecological sustainability.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145101348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Predominant Compound Extreme Events Inhibiting Vegetation Growth in China During the Past Two Decades","authors":"Mengtian Huang,&nbsp;Panmao Zhai,&nbsp;Chenpeng Wang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As global climate change intensifies, compound extremes (CEs) have become more frequent and have increased the vulnerability of terrestrial vegetation. While future climate change is expected to continue to exacerbate the severity of CEs, there remains a significant gap in understanding the relative contribution of different CEs to vegetation damage. In other words, there is an urgent need to identify the dominant CE inhibiting vegetation growth. In this study, we focused on six major CE categories over China and examined their spatiotemporal distribution during 2001–2018. We then utilised satellite-derived vegetation index to detect negative extremes of vegetation growth (NEVs) induced by CEs. By quantifying the coincidence rate of CEs with NEVs, we revealed compound dry extremes as the dominant CE event with the highest coincidence with NEVs in 37% vegetated area in China, followed by compound dry-cold extremes (22%). Generally, dry extremes were more likely to pose vegetation damage than wet extremes and climate warming has exacerbated these negative effects. In particular, grassland was more susceptible to compound droughts than shrubland/forest because of its lower resistance to environmental stress. Our findings will enhance the current understanding of CE impacts and serve as a guide for developing long-term strategies to mitigate CE risks under climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature on Extreme Wet Days Rainfall During March–May in Tanzania Using CMIP6 Models","authors":"Philemon H. King'uza,&nbsp;Botao Zhou,&nbsp;Paul T. S. Limbu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study assesses the performance of CMIP6 models in simulating monthly sea surface temperature (SST) over the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and extreme wet days (EWDs) in Tanzania using daily precipitation data (1981–2014) during March–May. Observational datasets from daily CHIRPSv2.0 and monthly ERSST were employed for validation. The study also examines future climatological mean and trend of SST and EWD during 2015–2048 and 2049–2082. Furthermore, the future influence of the TIO SST and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on EWDs during 2049–2082 was also assessed. Results from historical models display varying accuracy, with most models underestimating EWDs, and provide relatively accurate simulated SST. ACCESS-CM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5 and CMCC-ESM2 models demonstrate high variance in EWDs (1.0–2.0), while simulated SST showed greater variance, peaking at 7.16 for CMCC-CM2-SR5, with reduced biases. ACCESS-CM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, MIROC6, NESM3, and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR models exhibit moderate to high Taylor skill score values &gt; 0.5 and statistically significant correlations at the 99% confidence level, indicating a strong ability to replicate observed spatial and temporal patterns. These models also provide valuable insights into future climate projections during 2015–2048 and 2049–2082. Projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 indicate increasing trends in EWDs, especially under SSP5-8.5, during 2049–2082, with values reaching +0.8 days per decade. Southwestern and coastal regions exhibit the strongest positive trends at the 90% confidence level, while some western areas show slight decreases. Ensemble results of SST indicate consistent and robust warming signals, particularly under SSP5-8.5 during 2049–2082. Singular value decomposition reveals substantial connections between TIO SST and EWDs during 2049–2082 with dominant positive anomalies across models and significant correlations ranging from <i>R</i> = 0.58 to <i>R</i> = 0.78. Furthermore, IOD in January is highly expected to influence MAM EWDs during 2049–2082, with notable significant spatio-temporal positive correlations at the 90% confidence level for EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, CMCC-CM2-SR5 and the ensemble mean. These results provide critical insights for future planning in different sectors.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Projected Discharge Patterns in the Upper Yellow River Basin","authors":"Ziyan Chen,&nbsp;Buda Su,&nbsp;Nicola Fohrer,&nbsp;Ayenew D. Ayalew,&nbsp;Jinlong Huang,&nbsp;Mengxia Zhao,&nbsp;Shanshan Wen,&nbsp;Tong Jiang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70040","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study explores the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on the discharge of the Upper Yellow River Basin (UYR), an area of significant water conservation, employing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models and land use statistics. Discharge projections were conducted by hydrological models for the near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100) under seven shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The study's key findings are as follows: (1) temperature and precipitation are projected to increase under all SSPs, with greater rates under higher radiative forcing scenarios. Barren land is expected to undergo the most significant changes in land use, followed by grassland and forest, with the largest variations occurring in the long term. (2) The combined impacts of climate and land use changes lead to an overall increase in annual and seasonal discharge, with the most pronounced increases in spring. Under SSP5–8.5, spring discharge is projected to increase by up to 90.19% in the long term. Changes in discharge extremes also suggest an increasing likelihood of floods and droughts. (3) Land use changes play a crucial role in discharge estimation. Neglecting land use dynamics leads to significant overestimation of summer discharge, exceeding 4000 km³/y under all SSPs across different time periods. This study provides more reliable scenarios for future discharge changes in the UYR and emphasises the crucial role of land use in discharge projections.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Northwest Pacific Sea Surface Temperature on the South China Sea Winter Monsoon Based on Multimodel Projections","authors":"Weijie Feng,&nbsp;Marco Y.-T. Leung,&nbsp;Dongxiao Wang,&nbsp;Ming Lan,&nbsp;Yihong Li,&nbsp;Zhen-Zhong Hu","doi":"10.1002/joc.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The South China Sea Winter Monsoon (SCSWM) plays a critical role in the regional climate and atmospheric circulation patterns. This study explores the long-term change in the SCSWM from 1979 to 2023, focusing on its connection to the inhomogeneous warming trends of the Northwest Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (NWP-SST). Using NOAA ERSSTv5 and ERA5 reanalysis data, we uncover a strong relationship between the anomalous northeasterly winds, especially the zonal component, in the South China Sea (SCS) and the NWP-SST during boreal winter. Singular value decomposition (SVD) reveals that the NWP-SST is experiencing substantial warming, which could modulate the SCSWM. Evaluating several CMIP6 models, we demonstrate their ability to simulate this relationship reasonably. Future projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 126, 245 and 585 indicate that NWP-SST inhomogeneous warming and the corresponding change in the monsoon will continue, especially under high-emission scenarios (SSP585). This study highlights the possible influence of ocean warming on the SCSWM, with potential far-reaching effects on the region's climate patterns.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Possible Influence of the Preceding October Sea Ice Over the Greenland Sea on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall","authors":"Chen Chen,&nbsp;Gang Zeng,&nbsp;Yining Tao,&nbsp;Aminu Dalhatu Datti,&nbsp;Jie Zhang","doi":"10.1002/joc.70037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70037","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study investigates the possible impact of Greenland Sea ice concentration (SIC) on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and associated mechanisms. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between ISMR and the preceding October Greenland Sea SIC (GSSIC), and the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the north central tropical Pacific (NCTP) serve as the bridge that connects them during 1981–2023. Further analyses suggest that the increasing GSSIC can generate two branches of wave trains. One propagates over the high latitude mainly through the destructive interference with wavenumber-3, while the other propagates over mid-high latitude primarily through the destructive interference with wavenumber-4. These pathways lead to anomalous cyclones over the Bering Sea–Alaska and northern North America, anticyclones over northeast Hawaii, resulting in negative SSTA over northeast-east tropical Pacific from the preceding October to subsequent January. This SSTA can persist and intensify from February to September through Wind-Evaporation-Sea Surface Temperature feedback. As a result, the negative summer NCTP SSTA can induce anomalous ascending motion over the western Pacific–Indian Ocean by modulating the Walker circulation cell, contributing to the increasing ISMR. Moreover, the numerical experiments using NCAR CAM5.3 can basically reproduce the observed mechanisms.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145228066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}