International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Investigating the Limitations of Multi-Model Ensembling of Climate Model Outputs in Capturing Climate Extremes","authors":"Velpuri Manikanta,&nbsp;V. Manohar Reddy,&nbsp;Jew Das","doi":"10.1002/joc.8660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8660","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the context of climate change, the widespread practice of directly employing Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) for projecting future climate extremes, without prior evaluation of MME performance in historical periods, remains underexplored. This research addresses this gap through a comprehensive analysis of ensemble means derived from CMIP6-based models, including both simple and weighted averages of precipitation (SEMP and WEMP) and temperature (SEMT and WEMT) time series, as well as simple (SEME) and weighted (WEME) averages of extremes based on model-by-model analysis. The study evaluates the efficacy of MMEs in capturing mean annual values of ETCCDI indices over India for the period 1951–2014, utilising the IMD gridded data set as a reference. The results reveal that SEME and WEME consistently align closely with IMD data across various precipitation indices. At the same time, SEMP and WEMP consistently display underestimation biases ranging from 20% to 80% across all precipitation indices, except for CWD, where there is an overestimation bias. Moreover, SEMP and WEMP consistently underestimate CDD and overestimate CWD, indicating a systematic bias in these ensemble means, while WEME and SEME demonstrate satisfactory performance. SEMT and WEMT exhibit notable underestimation in temperature indices. In summary, adopting SEME and SEMT leads to a more robust assessment of precipitation and temperature extremes, respectively. These findings highlight the limitations of traditional MME methodologies in reproducing observed extreme precipitation events across various climatic zones in India, offering essential insights for refining climate models and improving the reliability of climate projections specific to the Indian subcontinent.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5711-5726"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Multiscalar Standardized Vapor Pressure Deficit Index for Drought Monitoring and Impacts","authors":"Isioma Jessica Nwayor,&nbsp;Scott M. Robeson,&nbsp;Darren L. Ficklin,&nbsp;Justin T. Maxwell","doi":"10.1002/joc.8668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8668","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical measure of the atmospheric demand for water and can be used to assess short-term and seasonal drought. To provide for probabilistic comparisons of VPD across space and time, we develop a Standardized Vapor Pressure Deficit Index (SVPDI). Similar to the way that other standardised drought indices are used, SVPDI allows for the analysis and comparison of changes in VPD across regions with different base level VPD values. It also should be useful for analysing impacts on vegetation that has varying levels of adaptation to high VPD. We use 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales for the development of SVPDI and show that the gamma distribution is superior to other zero-limited probability distributions for analysing VPD and, therefore, for calculating SVPDI. Then, focusing on the short-term variations at the 1- and 3-month timescales, we show how SVPDI has changed globally from 1958 to 2023 and how those changes differ from those of the commonly used Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI). We find that SVPDI shows more widespread drying conditions that also are larger in magnitude compared to those of SPEI. Although the two indices are moderately well correlated across the terrestrial surface, we discover that they are more decoupled in humid and arid regions compared to dry sub-humid and semi-arid regions. Using four locations that have recently experienced severe drought, we find that SVPDI generally showed longer drought duration and more severe drought events in the last decade when compared to SPEI.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5825-5838"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8668","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models","authors":"Li Tang,&nbsp;Riyu Lu,&nbsp;Zhongda Lin,&nbsp;Jian Lu,&nbsp;Ziming Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8647","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5474-5486"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models Based on Weather Types Applied to the South Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Luana Borato,&nbsp;Antonio Fernando Härter Fetter Filho,&nbsp;Paula Gomes da Silva,&nbsp;Fernando Javier Mendez,&nbsp;Antonio Henrique da Fontoura Klein","doi":"10.1002/joc.8653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8653","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Changes in climate in the South Atlantic region and adjacent regions have been described in numerous works using projections from global climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6. This paper presents an evaluation of the ability of these models to reproduce the atmospheric circulation patterns (weather types) and their seasonal and inter-annual variability. The analyses are performed based on the probability of occurrence of weather types in the historical period and in future projections. The scatter index and the relative entropy are the statistical parameters used to evaluate the models' performance in the historical period. Future projections consist of RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the CMIP5 models and the SSP126, 245, 370 and 585 scenarios for the CMIP6 and are assessed at different time intervals: short term (2015–2039), mid-term (2040–2069) and long term (2070–2100). The performance of projections is measured by analysing their consistency, that is, based on the similarity between projections of the same scenario in different models. The results show that the reproduction of the probability of occurrence of historical weather types and their seasonal and interannual variability was better performed by ACCESS1-0, HadGEM2-ES, HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM and MPI-ESM-P when assessing the models from CMIP5, and by HadGEM3-GC31-MM, ACCESS-ESM1-5, ACCESS- CM2 and MRI-ESM-P when assessing the models from CMIP6. As for future projections, only the BESM-AO2-5, GFDL-ESM4 and HadGEM3-GC31-MM models showed inconsistency in one or more scenarios.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5580-5595"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Changes in Water Surplus or Deficit and Possible Drivers in the North China Plain During 1961–2022","authors":"Jing Zhang,&nbsp;Ning Ma,&nbsp;Yongqiang Zhang,&nbsp;Ying Guo","doi":"10.1002/joc.8663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8663","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the North China Plain (NCP), the assessment of water surplus or deficit (WSD), which is calculated as precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration (ET₀), holds significant implications for water resource management and agricultural irrigation decision-making, given the region's long-standing severe shortage of water resources. However, the magnitude, trend and climatic drivers of WSD remain poorly understood in the NCP. This study analysed the spatial and temporal characteristics of WSD, and quantified the contribution of climatic factors to WSD based on the sensitivity and contribution rate analysis methods with climatic data from 75 meteorological stations. The result showed that: (1) Annual WSD decreased mainly in northeastern NCP and increased significantly in southern NCP during 1961–2022. Annual WSD increased slightly from 1961 to 2022 at a rate of 1.63 mm a⁻² mainly due to the more significant decrease (−1.88 mm a⁻²) in ET₀ compared to precipitation (−0.25 mm a⁻²). (2) In terms of the sensitivity of WSD to climatic factors, relative humidity had the highest sensitivity, followed by net radiation, wind speed, precipitation and average air temperature. (3) Significant declines of wind speed were the most dominant factor affecting WSD variation in most part of NCP during most of a year, and net radiation of four stations in the western high-elevation regions played the most important role. This study enhances comprehension of the impact of climate change on WSD in the NCP and provides a reference for improving management of agricultural water resources under NCP's evolving climatic conditions.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 16","pages":"5761-5772"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Atmospheric Pressure Rivalry Between the Arctic and Northern Pacific: Implications for Alaskan Climate Variability","authors":"Igor V. Polyakov,&nbsp;Thomas J. Ballinger,&nbsp;James E. Overland,&nbsp;Stephen J. Vavrus,&nbsp;Seth L. Danielson,&nbsp;Rick Lader,&nbsp;Uma S. Bhatt,&nbsp;Amy S. Hendricks,&nbsp;Franz J. Mueter","doi":"10.1002/joc.8638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8638","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Located at the confluence of the Arctic and North Pacific and with Alaska at its heart, the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) is a unique and interconnected regional climate system. Significant climatic changes in the PAR are described by a novel, mobile monthly Alaska Arctic Front (AAF) index, which is defined by sea level pressure differences between the migratory cores of the Beaufort High and Aleutian Low. Regional climate variability associated with the AAF shows prominent decadal signatures that are driven by the opposing effects of the North Pacific and the Arctic atmospheric pressure fields. Low AAF (negative phase) is dominated by North Pacific forcing, whereas high AAF (positive phase) is dominated by Arctic atmospheric processes. The recent (2011–2021) negative AAF phase, which is associated with the westward displacement of Aleutian Low explaining stronger northward winds and enhanced water transport northward through Bering Strait, is conducive to increased oceanic heat and freshwater content, reduced regional sea ice cover in the PAR, and to the expansion of Pacific species into the Arctic. These factors are all indicators of the Pacification of the Arctic Ocean, a key feature of climate change related to progression of anomalous Pacific water masses and biota into the polar basins. It is not yet clear if or when the recent phase of decadal variability will change and alter the rate of Pacification of the Arctic climate system.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5339-5357"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8638","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Global Analysis of Historical and Future Changes in Mediterranean Climate-Type Regions","authors":"Diego Urdiales-Flores,&nbsp;George Zittis,&nbsp;Panos Hadjinicolaou,&nbsp;Annalisa Cherchi,&nbsp;Andrea Alessandri,&nbsp;Nadav Peleg,&nbsp;Jos Lelieveld","doi":"10.1002/joc.8655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8655","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mediterranean climate-type regions (MCRs) are characterised by warm-to-hot dry summers and mild-wet winters. These regions are typically found on the western or southern edges of continents, for example, in the Mediterranean Basin, the west coast of North and South America, southern Africa and southwest Australia. The MCRs are vulnerable to climate variability and change related to their unique characteristics, such as pronounced rainfall seasonality and prolonged hot and dry summers. Based on historical observations and CMIP6 climate projections, we apply an empirical bio-climatic assessment of how the geographic distribution of MCRs has changed during the last century and how these zones will be further impacted under continued warming. Results indicate a poleward and eastward expansion of MCRs in the Mediterranean Basin, North America-California and South America-Central Chile regions. For parts of Southern Africa and Southern Australia, a retreat of the MCR margins and an expansion of more arid climate zones are projected. These shifts are particularly profound according to high emission and radiative forcing pathways and future scenarios. The warming in MCRs is projected to accelerate (e.g., mean regional warming of up to 5.5°C under a 4°C global warming scenario), and precipitation will decrease by about 5%–10% for every additional degree of global warming. One exception is the California MCR, where rainfall will likely increase. Such changes can challenge water resources, food security and other aspects of human livelihood and ecosystems in these unique geographical zones.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5607-5620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8655","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mesoscale Variations in the Number of Thunder Days Over the Japanese Archipelago During the Past Fifty-Six Years","authors":"Hiroyuki Iwasaki","doi":"10.1002/joc.8658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8658","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The spatial and temporal variations of cumulonimbus clouds (Cbs) that produce lightning have mesoscale characteristics due to the nature of Cbs and the influence of topography; however, previous studies have lacked a mesoscale perspective because historical lightning observations relied on human observation. In this study, mesoscale variations in the number of thunder days (TDs) over the Japanese Archipelago over a 56-year period were investigated using manned observation data (Period 1: 1954–1963) and radio-wave observation data (Period 2: 2010–2019). A comparison of the two periods of Period 1 and Period 2 revealed that the locations of mesoscale areas with high TDs did not change significantly; however, the number of TDs increased in most mesoscale areas and it was not possible to identify any mesoscale areas with a significant decreasing trend. The characteristics of mesoscale variation varied with the season as follows: (1) Winter (November–January): the number of TDs along the coastal lands of the Sea of Japan increased significantly. The variations in the synoptic-scale winter pressure pattern with low stability were one of the factors contributing to the increasing trend of TDs. (2) In the first half of the Baiu season (June), the number of TDs increased in two regions: one region was the south of Japan associated with the Baiu front, while the second region was the northern area of Japan, where the influence of the Baiu front is limited. (3) Summer (August): the number of TDs in mountainous areas tended to increase significantly, and the variation in the water vapour content was significantly correlated with the variation in the number of TDs. The number of TDs in the foothills did not increase significantly. (4) Akisame season (September): the number of TDs along the Pacific Ocean coast significantly increased.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5655-5666"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-Temporal Variations and El Niño Modulation of Meteorological Droughts in Malaysia","authors":"Nurul Ain Basirah Zakaria,&nbsp;Fredolin Tangang,&nbsp;Ester Salimun,&nbsp;Abdul Azim Amirudin,&nbsp;Chung Jing Xiang,&nbsp;Liew Juneng,&nbsp;Mou Leong Tan,&nbsp;Zed Zulkafli,&nbsp;Marzuki Marzuki,&nbsp;Jerasorn Santisirisomboon,&nbsp;Mohd Fadzil Akhir,&nbsp;Muhamammad Firdaus Ammar Abdullah,&nbsp;Ahmad Fairudz Jamaluddin,&nbsp;Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd","doi":"10.1002/joc.8652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8652","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Meteorological droughts in Malaysia have significantly impacted critical sectors such as agriculture, water resources, health, the environment, tourism and various socio-economic sectors, affecting the population's livelihood and well-being. This study analyses drought characteristics over a 39-year period, from 1982 to 2021, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from 5-km resolution Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). The droughts were assessed on 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month timescales to investigate spatio-temporal variations in characteristics such as frequency, duration, peak, severity and intensity. The study also provides an in-depth analysis of large-scale drought modulation, particularly associated with the El Niño phenomenon and its teleconnection in the Maritime Continent. Depending on the location and timescale, the number of meteorological drought occurrences varied from 10 to 22 for the 3-month timescale and 4 to 14 for the 12-month timescale. Generally, as the timescale of a drought increases, the peak intensity decreases, while the duration and severity increase. Additionally, drought intensity decreases over longer timescales. These characteristics show significant spatial variations. Results indicate that meteorological droughts in Malaysia were almost entirely modulated by the El Niño phenomenon through its induced teleconnection over the Maritime Continent. Drought characteristics exhibit a strong seasonality linked to changes in the Walker circulation and the strengthening and weakening of anticyclonic circulations associated with Rossby waves induced by heating in the Pacific Ocean. Very strong El Niño events had the most significant influence on the droughts. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) strengthened the effects of El Niño but it itself had no significant influence on the droughts. In most regions, there were no significant trends in the characteristics of meteorological droughts. However, in northeast Peninsular Malaysia and some scattered areas along the west coast of the peninsula, significant trends are observed in peak, duration and severity.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5560-5579"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compound Hot and Dry Events in Argentina and Their Connection to El Niño-Southern Oscillation","authors":"Agustina Lopez-Ramirez,&nbsp;Mariana Barrucand,&nbsp;Soledad Collazo","doi":"10.1002/joc.8657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8657","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This work studies the simultaneous and sequential occurrence of hot and dry months in the summer season in Argentina, north of 40°S, based on three different databases: meteorological stations, a gridded observational dataset and a reanalysis product. The influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the occurrence of these compound events is specially analysed using a logistic regression model. Monthly maximum temperature and precipitation data are used for the period 1979–2022 in four sub-regions of Argentina: Northwestern Argentina (NOA), Northeastern Argentina (NEA), Cuyo (central-western Argentina) and the Pampas (central-eastern Argentina). Simultaneous hot and dry months and hot months preceded by dry months are the most frequent compound events. The highest frequencies are found in the centre part of the study region and NEA for simultaneous compound events, and in NOA and the Pampas region for sequential ones. In general terms, all datasets show a good representation of the spatio-temporal variability of hot and dry months. The insights of the influence of ENSO on compound events revealed that La Niña enhances the occurrences of hot and dry months throughout the study region, with the exception of NOA, where El Niño conditions promote the occurrence of these events. Based on logistic regression models, we successfully quantify the relationship between ENSO and hot and dry months and demonstrate that ENSO plays a significant role as a driver of compound hot and dry events in the central region, Cuyo, NEA and a portion of the Pampas. This research contributes to the understanding of compound events in Argentina and how they are influenced by major drivers of climate variability providing useful information for the development of a predictive system for such events.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 15","pages":"5641-5654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}