International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Patterns of Human-Perceived Temperature and Its Drivers Over the Rapid Urbanisation Area of China","authors":"Manjie Huang,&nbsp;Yanzhong Li,&nbsp;Aiqing Feng,&nbsp;Haiwen Yan,&nbsp;Wenjun Yu,&nbsp;Yintong Guo,&nbsp;Kunxia Yu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8898","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8898","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Recent years have witnessed a significant rise in heat stress, including human-perceived temperature (HPT), which has led to increased incidents of heat stroke and even fatalities, raising considerable concern about the risk to human settlement environments. However, the spatiotemporal pattern of HPT and the potential drivers related to climate and urbanisation remain unclear. This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta region of China, a typical heat stress-sensitive area, to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of HPT using six commonly used indices: indoor apparent temperature (AT_in), outdoor shaded apparent temperature (AT_out), discomfort index (DI), effective temperature (ET), heat index (HI) and wet-bulb temperature (WBT). Our analysis indicates a significant upward trend (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.05) during the summer months from 1990 to 2019. AT_out and WBT represent the most and least warming indices, respectively. Trends in HPT indices show significant regional variations. Over half of the cities analysed (56%) demonstrate positive urban–rural temperature differentials across all indices, with the most pronounced warming occurring in humid regions. The increase in anthropogenic heat emissions primarily drives HPT in the relatively arid regions in the northern and eastern areas. In contrast, decreasing vegetation cover contributes to changes in the southwestern, more humid area. Our findings can provide theoretical support for improving urban thermal environment management and developing mitigation strategies for human health.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Climate Variability and Trends on Drought Over Benin: A Statistical and Conceptual Approach","authors":"Vidéhouénou Ariane Lucrèce Todote,&nbsp;Janaína Cassiano dos Santos,&nbsp;Gustavo Bastos Lyra,&nbsp;Marcel Carvalho Abreu,&nbsp;Roberto Avelino Cecílio,&nbsp;José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior,&nbsp;Gisleine Cunha-Zeri,&nbsp;Marcelo Zeri","doi":"10.1002/joc.8888","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8888","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study assessed drought trends and variability in Benin and their relationship with climate modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Gradient (AISSTG), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Drought intensity, duration and frequency were analysed using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) from monthly precipitation data at six weather stations (Bohicon, Cotonou, Kandi, Natitingou, Parakou and Savè) for 1970–2015. Nonparametric tests showed that all stations had random, independent, homogeneous and stationary 12-month SPI series, except for Kandi and Parakou, which exhibited autocorrelation and a significant positive trend (<i>p</i> &gt; 0.05). No significant trends were observed at other stations. Significant correlations were found between the 12-month SPI and both the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI, <i>r</i> = −0.35) and the PDO index (<i>r</i> = −0.30). Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed wet years in Benin during negative MEI and PDO phases. Droughts of higher intensity and duration were more frequent (54%) during El Niño/Neutral and warm PDO phases, whereas wet years (56%) occurred during La Niña and cool PDO phases. Extreme drought events (SPI &lt; −2) were more common (89%) from 1970 to 1995, coinciding with high positive MEI and PDO values, whereas intense wet years (SPI &gt; 1.5) occurred more often (64%) from 1996 to 2010. Harmonic and spectral analyses identified dominant dry/wet frequencies of 5–7.5 and 2–4.5 years. Stations nearest the coast (Cotonou, Bohicon) and in northern Benin (Kandi) experienced more frequent extreme events (14–16 events). These findings highlight the significant influence of climate variability on interannual and decadal precipitation patterns in Benin.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme Cold Days and Spells in Northern Europe at 0.5°C–2.0°C Global Warming Levels","authors":"Kimmo Ruosteenoja,&nbsp;Kirsti Jylhä","doi":"10.1002/joc.8875","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8875","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Projections for cold days and spells in Northern Europe at global warming levels of 0.5°C–2.0°C are derived from bias-corrected output data from 60 runs performed with 25 global climate models. The threshold temperature of a cold day is defined as the 10th percentile of December–February daily mean temperatures at the 0.5°C warming level. A transition from the 0.5°C to the 2.0°C warming level reduces the multi-model mean annual number of cold days by 60%–80%. The total cold day extremity index, consisting of the sum of anomalies below the threshold temperature during the cold season, is reduced even more, by 70%–90%. The largest changes occur in the Kola Peninsula and regions surrounding the White and Baltic Seas. This pattern of change is consistent with the signal-to-noise ratio of the winter mean temperature increase. Nevertheless, inter-model differences in the response are substantial, being largely attributable to the manner in which global warming affects regional winter temperatures. To assess the occurrence of severe cold spells, a 1200-year sample was established by concatenating the bias-corrected output of all 60 model runs. From this extensive sample, it is feasible to robustly determine the return levels of even very extreme cold spells. A severe cold spell occurring once in 10 years on average at the 0.5°C warming level would be experienced approximately once in 30 (70) years at the 1.5°C (2.0°C) level. Correspondingly, a baseline-climate 100-year cold spell would occur at the 2°C warming level less frequently than once in a 1000 years.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8875","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Classifying Moist Unstable States for the Occurrence of Precipitation During the Summer Season in Japan","authors":"Nanami Naka,&nbsp;Tetsuya Takemi","doi":"10.1002/joc.8890","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8890","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using mesoscale gridded analysis data and radar/raingauge-analysed precipitation products, this study statistically investigated the environmental conditions at the time of precipitation occurrences during the summer season in Japan, from June to August, over the 18 years from 2006 to 2023. We chose five regions with higher precipitation amounts than the surroundings based on the averaged three-month accumulated precipitation and examined various environmental parameters relevant to the stability and moisture conditions, including the characteristics of the moist absolutely unstable layers (MAUL). There was a high correlation between areas with heavy precipitation and deep MAULs, but little agreement between precipitation and other environmental stability indices. A close relationship was found between precipitation and the occurrence of MAULs. Among the environmental parameters examined in this study, the three-dimensional volume of MAUL demonstrated the highest correlation coefficient with the occurrence of precipitation. Although the relationship between the MAUL volume and the precipitation amount indicated a certain magnitude of correlation coefficients, the relationship includes a certain degree of scatter. Through investigating the differences in the relationships between the environmental parameters and the precipitation amount by dividing the cases depending on the volume size of MAUL and the amount of precipitation, the analysis showed that heavy rainfall in Japan during the summertime can be classified into two types based on environmental properties. One type is regarded as “MAUL type” which occurs when MAULs are greatly enhanced in highly humid states throughout the troposphere. The second type is regarded as “CAPE type” which occurs when CAPE and temperature lapse rate become large and hence a convectively unstable state develops. It is considered that mechanisms for the development of heavy rainfalls depend on the tropospheric humidity (which will make the layer moist absolutely unstable) and the convective instability (which will make CAPE larger).</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8890","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of ENSO on Duration of South Asia High Staying Over Southern Asia During Summer-To-Winter Transition","authors":"Xu Xue,&nbsp;Wen Chen,&nbsp;Sixian Cen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8893","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8893","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates the impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the duration of the South Asia high (SAH) that persists over southern Asia (10°N–27.5°N, 40°E–115°E) during the summer-to-winter transition. The findings indicate that the duration of the SAH over southern Asia displays distinct interannual variations. Specifically, the SAH is observed to manifest as more intense and rapidly revert to the Ocean in a short duration year (SD_SAH) in contrast to a long duration year (LD_SAH). Furthermore, the SD_SAH tends to appear during a period of a La Niña event developing, while the LD_SAH is observed to coincide with the developing phase of an El Niño event. During the developing phase of a La Niña event, distinct variations in sea surface temperature (SST) are observed, with cooler SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and warmer SST in the tropical northwestern Pacific. These variations in SST are conducive to the generation of an atmosphere circulation cell, featured by upward flow over the tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and downward flow over the western Indian Ocean and eastern Africa. Above-normal precipitation and apparent heating across the tropical northwestern Pacific could lead to positive geopotential height (HGT) over its northwestern side at upper troposphere. The thermotaxis feature of the SAH results in a strengthening and rapid eastward movement of the system during the summer-to-winter transition. Conversely, during El Niño development, the SST pattern exhibits an opposite phase, characterised by a downward flow over the tropical northwestern Pacific. The deficit precipitation and latent cooling present an obstacle to the SAH shifting eastward to the Ocean. Consequently, the SAH would require a longer duration to persist over southern Asia, exhibiting a distinct east–west oscillational trajectory.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144914936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trend Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Indices and Climate Oscillations Over the Yucatan Peninsula for the Period 1980–2010","authors":"Marta Paola Rodríguez-González,&nbsp;Ruth Cerezo-Mota","doi":"10.1002/joc.8885","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8885","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using daily precipitation data from 69 weather stations across the Yucatan Peninsula (YP), we analysed trends in extreme precipitation over 30 years at annual and seasonal scales. The analysis included total precipitation (PRCPTOT), intensity indices (R95p, R99p, SDII and Rx1day), frequency indices (R10mm, R20mm and R30mm), and persistence indices (consecutive dry days [CDD] and consecutive wet days [CWD]). Characterising rainfall distribution is crucial, as southeastern Mexico's YP lacks surface water bodies and relies solely on rainfall to recharge its aquifer. Our findings reveal significant spatial and temporal variability in precipitation across the region. Yucatan and northern Campeche exhibit positive trends in total precipitation and extreme rainfall, while Quintana Roo and southern Campeche show negative trends. Notably, Yucatan experiences more intense rainfall during spring and summer, whereas Quintana Roo shows a marked reduction in winter precipitation. In terms of persistence indices, the CDD index shows a significant positive trend, indicating an extension of dry periods in the region, especially in Quintana Roo. Conversely, the CWD index shows a negative trend, highlighting that rainfall is concentrated over fewer days each year. This study also examines the influence of four climate oscillations on YP rainfall. We found that La Niña particularly affects both winter and summer precipitation. Moreover, the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increases the frequency of intense rainfall events in Yucatan during winter. These results highlight the complexity of regional climate dynamics. Additionally, we analysed intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for three tropical cyclones that impacted the YP in 2020. These events caused flooding, infrastructure damage, and crop losses. Some extreme rainfall associated with these cyclones exceeded the 100-year return period, emphasising the urgent need for adaptive strategies to address changing precipitation patterns and mitigate the worst impacts of such events.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8885","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144646865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding Possible Physical Mechanisms Associated With Variability of March to May Seasonal Extreme Wettest Days Rainfall in Tanzania","authors":"Philemon H. King'uza,&nbsp;Botao Zhou,&nbsp;Paul T. S. Limbu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8887","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8887","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Extreme rainfall remains the most impactful natural disaster affecting the environment and ecological system in Tanzania. Understanding possible physical mechanisms behind these events is crucial for mitigating associated risks. Therefore, the interannual variability of extreme wettest days (EWDs) during March to May from 1981 to 2020 was examined using daily ground observations and gridded data from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data. EWDs were determined by using 99th percentile-based method. The variability of EWDs was assessed using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and wavelet methods. To understand their connectivity with physical mechanisms, methods such as regression and correlation were applied in the analysis. Results show a significant increase in EWDs under 95% confidence level, especially in recent years, with a notable peak in 2020, explaining 19.3% of the variance in the leading EOF1, which is positively loaded across most of Tanzania. EOF1's principal component exhibits interannual variability with predominantly positive values, indicating a close relationship between high rainfall regions and EWDs. Wavelet analysis reveals significant oscillations of EWDs at 2 to 5-year intervals, linked to climate phenomena like the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Climatologically, southwest-oriented vertical integrated moisture flux (VIMF) vectors are predominant, moving westward over Tanzania due to an anticyclonic system in the southwestern Indian Ocean. The study concludes that EWD variability is influenced by the convergence of southerly and westerly VIMF vectors along Tanzania's coastal zone and the western Indian Ocean. Warming sea surface temperature anomalies in various oceans (i.e., northwestern Atlantic Ocean, tropical Indian Ocean and northern Pacific Ocean) are positively correlated with EWDs in Tanzania. These anomalies enhance or suppress EWDs by creating low (upper) level convergence (divergence) winds over the tropical Indian Ocean, linking to the ascending (sinking) limb of Walker-type circulation over the Indian (Pacific and Atlantic) Ocean.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144915003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Consistency Assessment of CORDEX Multi-Domain Simulations Over the Tibetan Plateau Using REMO","authors":"Ping Li,&nbsp;Xiaorui Niu,&nbsp;Yanjin Mao,&nbsp;Xianchun Chen","doi":"10.1002/joc.8878","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8878","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Tibetan Plateau (TP), often referred to as the Water Tower of Asia and the Third Pole, is undergoing rapid warming and wetting, making it a key focus of contemporary Earth System Science Research. Three Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains: CORDEX-EAS-II, CORDEX-CAS-II and CORDEX-SAS-II, overlap over the TP, providing an opportunity to assess the sensitivity of CORDEX simulations to the domain choice in this region. In this study, we analyse the similarities and differences in the latest version of Regional Model (REMO) simulation across the three CORDEX domains at a spatial resolution of 25 km, focusing on climatology and climate extremes. The results show that the choice of simulation domain has minimal impact on REMO's climate and extreme climate simulations over the TP. Three-dimensional indicators reveal that the choice of domains primarily influences the temporal evolution for temperature simulations over the TP, with minimal effects on magnitudes and spatial patterns. For precipitation simulations, the choice of domains has a more pronounced effect on magnitudes than on temporal variation or spatial patterns. Additionally, significant seasonal biases are observed in REMO's simulation of wet days, with negative biases in summer linked to a lower frequency of 1–7 mm precipitation, while positive biases in other seasons are associated with an overestimation of moderate-to-heavy rainfall frequencies.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spring Rapid Temperature Variability in Southern China: Characteristics, Decadal Trend and Associated Climate Impacts on Crop Yield","authors":"Xianke Yang,&nbsp;Yixuan Zhang,&nbsp;Haosu Tang,&nbsp;Ping Huang,&nbsp;Xiaoxia Ling,&nbsp;Shaobing Peng,&nbsp;Dongliang Xiong","doi":"10.1002/joc.8880","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8880","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Climate-related risks are shaped not only by changes in mean temperatures, but also by temperature variability, which raises the likelihood of extreme weather events with profound impacts on society and ecosystems. Previous studies have documented contrasting seasonal trend differences in summer and winter temperature variability across most land areas. However, spring—a phenologically sensitive season for agricultural systems—has received limited attention for its temperature variability. Focusing on the major rice-growing regions in southern China, this study employs three indices—daily temperature standard deviation (STD), day-to-day temperature variability (DTD) and rapid cooling events (RCE)—to analyse the decadal trends and causes of spring temperature variability and assess its climate effects on rice yield anomalies. Our results reveal decadal trends in the spatial distribution of temperature variability, with increasing frequency and intensity in the Yangtze River Basin and Yunnan Province, and a decreasing trend across much of South China, closely following regional climatological patterns. Overall, the frequency and intensity of RCE trend exhibit a “strong gets weaker, weak gets stronger” pattern, likely linked to increased STD trends caused by spatial non-uniformity of warming. Through a multiple regression statistical model employing dominance analysis, we find that climate factors, including both mean climate and climate variability, explained 19%–45% of the variance in provincial rice yield anomalies, with up to 13% of the explained variance attributable to spring climate factors related to temperature variability. This study underscores the critical role of spring temperature variability in climate resilience, highlights the urgent need to enhance the adaptability of agricultural systems to extreme climate events.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Delayed Response of Soil Moisture and Hydrological Droughts to Meteorological Drought Over East Asia","authors":"Msafiri Mtupili,&nbsp;Ren Wang,&nbsp;Lei Gu,&nbsp;Jiabo Yin","doi":"10.1002/joc.8883","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8883","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The frequency and severity of meteorological drought across Eastern Asia (EA) are observed and projected to increase with ongoing global climate change. However, the temporal and spatial responses of land surface elements including soil moisture and runoff to meteorological drought remain insufficiently understood and characterised, especially in terms of quantifying the differentiated lag time of soil moisture and hydrological drought responses. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal response of soil moisture and hydrological droughts to meteorological drought across EA, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI; a measure of precipitation deficit), Standardised Soil Moisture Drought Index (SSMDI; quantifying soil moisture anomalies) and Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI; assessing streamflow deviations) at short- (1–3), medium- (6–9) and long-scales (12–24 months). The results show that in northern EA, soil moisture droughts indicate weak negative correlations with meteorological droughts at 1–6 month time scales, while in southern regions, stronger positive correlations are observed at 9–24 month time scales. Hydrological droughts exhibit consistently strong positive correlations with meteorological droughts across all time scales, especially in the southern regions of EA. Northern regions exhibit longer lag times of up to 8 months of soil moisture droughts in response to meteorological drought, whereas southern regions exhibit rapid responses (1 month). In all time scales, hydrological droughts in northern regions of EA have a delayed lag times extending up to 10 months. As climate change and land use changes may amplify drought impacts, long-term forecasting and adaptive management are essential to mitigate water shortages and ecological stress across the EA region.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144647803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}