International Journal of Climatology最新文献

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The recent increasing frequency of strong cooling event in Southwest China in February 近期 2 月西南地区强降温事件日益频繁
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8550
Sun Chang, Xiao Zi-Niu
{"title":"The recent increasing frequency of strong cooling event in Southwest China in February","authors":"Sun Chang,&nbsp;Xiao Zi-Niu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8550","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8550","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A strong cooling event refers to a sharp change in the average temperature over a short period. The rapid change of temperature has important effect on human health and is highly concerned recent years. Based on the observed temperature data set from stations in Southwest China (SWC) from 1979 to 2017, this paper analyses the characteristics of the strong cooling event (SCE). The result shows that SCE occurs with the highest frequency during the time from February to May. Among them, the frequency of SCE in February exhibits an abrupt change before and after 2005 with a significant increase. Further study reveals that the change of SCE frequency in February is associated with the large-scale background circulation patterns. After 2005, there is a cyclonic circulation anomaly in Northeast Asia and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the Tibet Plateau (TP). This pattern provides a favourable condition for the southward movement of cold air mass, thereby increasing the frequency of SCE in SWC. Furthermore, it is revealed that there is a strong correlation between the variation of SCE frequency in February and sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Northwest Pacific in January before 2005. The cold SST anomaly could favour the occurrence of extreme TD events in SWC through vertical circulation. After 2005, the correlation between SCE and Northwest Pacific SST is not significant. The sea ice in the northern Barents Sea and Kara Sea becomes the dominant impact factor. The abnormally low sea ice concentration is conducive to strengthen the meridional circulation over East Asia, leading to an increasing frequency of SCE in SWC.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 11","pages":"3778-3791"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141683203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Performance and projections of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 in simulating precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 在模拟巴西亚马逊和塞拉多生物群落降水方面的性能和预测
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8547
Leonardo Melo de Mendonça, Claudio José Cavalcante Blanco, Josias da Silva Cruz
{"title":"Performance and projections of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 in simulating precipitation in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes","authors":"Leonardo Melo de Mendonça,&nbsp;Claudio José Cavalcante Blanco,&nbsp;Josias da Silva Cruz","doi":"10.1002/joc.8547","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8547","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The objective of this work is to provide projections of mean annual and monthly precipitation for the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes, in the near-term (2021–2040), medium-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100). The intermediate and most pessimistic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were considered. Thus, 34 high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were evaluated. The base period evaluated was from 1981 to 2010. The NEX-GDDP simulations are bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station v2.0 was chosen as the source of observed data due to low availability in situ data. The Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) and the global performance indicator were implemented in Google Earth Engine to evaluate the GCMs. The results show that the GCMs perform satisfactorily, except for KACE-1-0-G and IITM-ESM. The median KGE is 0.86 for the biomes. Thus, the Ensemble Model of 32 GCMs (EM-32) indicates a reduction in precipitation in the biomes, except the northern Cerrado. In the most pessimistic scenario, changes in annual precipitation range from 3% to −33% until the end of the century. The north-central Amazon and the northwestern Cerrado are the most affected regions. In general, the monthly precipitations between September and November show the most intense decreasing rates. It is estimated that 91% and 23% of areas in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes, respectively, show robust signs of reduction in mean annual precipitation. Thus, EM-32 shows more intense and robust climate projections, in comparison to the total annual precipitation of the subset of 33 raw CMIP6 models from Working Group I of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Therefore, the EM-32 precipitation projections can be applied to future hydrological and hydrosedimentological investigations.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 11","pages":"3726-3741"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141684028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Droughts and heatwaves in the West African monsoon system 西非季风系统中的干旱和热浪
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8544
Dakéga Saberma Ragatoa, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Andreas H. Fink, Marlon Maranan, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Kodjovi S. Edjame, Kehinde O. Ogunjobi
{"title":"Droughts and heatwaves in the West African monsoon system","authors":"Dakéga Saberma Ragatoa,&nbsp;Leonard K. Amekudzi,&nbsp;Andreas H. Fink,&nbsp;Marlon Maranan,&nbsp;Nana Ama Browne Klutse,&nbsp;Kodjovi S. Edjame,&nbsp;Kehinde O. Ogunjobi","doi":"10.1002/joc.8544","DOIUrl":"10.1002/joc.8544","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heatwaves and droughts increasingly impact public health and societal system in a world subject to global warming. Several studies reported these phenomena all around the world, but there is a dearth of research specifically in West Africa. This study fills that gap by comparing heatwave/heat stress and drought occurrence in three climate zones (Guinea, Sudan and Sahel) of West Africa from 1981 to 2020. The analysis focuses on the comparison of station and gridded datasets. The Cumulative Excess Heat (CumHeat) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are considered for heatwaves. For drought, the Standardized Precipitation (Evapotranspiration) Index SPI (SPEI) are used at 3-, 6- and 12-month scales. Both heatwave and drought characteristics are investigated as well as their co-occurrence (D-HW). The investigation reveals a good correlation between station and gridded datasets for drought indices. While station data records fewer and less intense heatwave, gridded data indicates longer-lasting heat extremes. The study also demonstrates a strong agreement between the UTCI computed from the Rayman model and ERA5-HEAT dataset, despite timing discrepancies, especially along the Guinea coast. The Sahel region is found to endure higher heat stress levels, with increasing intensity of heatwaves over time. Notably, the study uncovers an increasing frequency of compound D-HW in all zones, especially the Sudan and Sahel zones, offering new insights into the climatic challenges faced by West Africa. These findings emphasize the critical need for improved planning and early warning systems (EWS) to mitigate the impacts of these climate extremes ecosystems and human health.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 11","pages":"3681-3705"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141684224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climatology of sea breeze over Jiangsu coast: An overview from the ERA5 reanalysis 江苏沿海海风气候学:ERA5再分析概述
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8552
Zhiqiang Cui, Shuying Mei, Xin Li, Shizhang Wang, Mingjian Zeng
{"title":"Climatology of sea breeze over Jiangsu coast: An overview from the ERA5 reanalysis","authors":"Zhiqiang Cui,&nbsp;Shuying Mei,&nbsp;Xin Li,&nbsp;Shizhang Wang,&nbsp;Mingjian Zeng","doi":"10.1002/joc.8552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8552","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The sea breeze characteristics for 30 years of summer (1981–2010) in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province were analysed in this study, using the four-step filter method based on ECMWF Fifth-Generation Reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results showed that the filtering method reasonably identified three types of sea breeze. Additionally, approximately 23% of the total summer days remained; the corkscrew type dominates the three types of sea breeze; and the backdoor sea breeze was the least common. Except for the type of backdoor sea breeze, the other two types had relatively fixed dominant weather types on three coastlines. The synoptic weather patterns in the 500-hPa level corresponding to each sea breeze type were different. Further, the details of the diurnal cycle of lower tropospheric circulation indicated the strength of the onshore wind and the location of the large potential temperature gradient at noon being influenced by sea breeze type and coastal location. The wind strength for the three types of sea breeze on the middle coastline was stronger than that on the other two coastlines. On the three coastlines, strong onshore winds were concentrated in areas near the coastline, where they reached their maximum strengths around noon. On the southern coastline, strong onshore winds moved further inland.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 11","pages":"3821-3834"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142158645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and North Pacific meridional sea surface temperature anomalies 南海夏季季风开始与北太平洋经向海面温度异常之间的关系
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8534
Yuxuan Zhao, Ruoyu Liu, Chenwei Yao, Shuai Li, Zhiwei Wu, Zhiqiang Gong, Guolin Feng
{"title":"The relationship between the South China Sea summer monsoon onset and North Pacific meridional sea surface temperature anomalies","authors":"Yuxuan Zhao,&nbsp;Ruoyu Liu,&nbsp;Chenwei Yao,&nbsp;Shuai Li,&nbsp;Zhiwei Wu,&nbsp;Zhiqiang Gong,&nbsp;Guolin Feng","doi":"10.1002/joc.8534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8534","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study investigates the connection between significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific during boreal spring (February–April, FMA) and the subsequent South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset. The SST anomalies, similar to the Pacific meridional mode (PMM), referred to as the PMM+ mode, are defined to examine the new influencing factor on the SCSSM onset. Our findings reveal that the (February–March–April, FMA) PMM+ has a noteworthy positive correlation with the subsequent May SCSSM onset date, with this correlation being minimally affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during preceding winter. A robust positive PMM+ in boreal spring can be persist until May via atmosphere–ocean interaction. The cooling area over Western North Pacific would reduce precipitation heating, thereby generating Rossby waves that reinforce the formation of the anomalous anticyclone over the SCS. As a result, easterly winds and suppressed convection prevail over the SCS, making the SCSSM break out later than normal. Furthermore, the amplification of anticyclonic vorticity anomalies also strengthens the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) stronger and shifts its position further westward compared to normal years, thereby blocking active convection to the west of the SCS. Given the weakened relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the SCSSM onset in recent years, the PMM+ could be considered as a promising preceding signal for the SCSSM onset, thus holding significant implications for the SCSSM prediction efforts.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 10","pages":"3483-3498"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New perspectives on South Atlantic storm track through an automatic method for detecting extratropical cyclones' lifecycle 通过外热带气旋生命周期自动检测方法,为南大西洋风暴轨迹提供新视角
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8539
Danilo Couto de Souza, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Carolina Barnez Gramcianinov, Matheus Bonjour Laviola da Silva, Ricardo de Camargo
{"title":"New perspectives on South Atlantic storm track through an automatic method for detecting extratropical cyclones' lifecycle","authors":"Danilo Couto de Souza,&nbsp;Pedro Leite da Silva Dias,&nbsp;Carolina Barnez Gramcianinov,&nbsp;Matheus Bonjour Laviola da Silva,&nbsp;Ricardo de Camargo","doi":"10.1002/joc.8539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8539","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study introduces new insights into the climatology of South Atlantic (SAt) cyclones by employing a novel cyclone life cycle detection method, the CycloPhaser. Utilizing the minimum relative vorticity series and its derivative at the cyclone centre, the program effectively identifies distinct phases in the cyclone life cycle. Cyclone tracks are obtained through the analysis of relative vorticity at 850 hPa, using the ERA5 dataset. The study identified six main cyclone life cycle patterns from the analysis of 28,458 systems. The predominant cyclone type, accounting for approximately 60% of the analysed systems, exhibited a four-phase configuration: incipient, intensification, mature and decay. Detailed statistics for each developmental phase and the overall life cycle are presented, offering valuable comparisons and new insights while corroborating previous research findings. Key genesis regions in the SAt are identified, along with track density maps that reveal distinct preferences in cyclone developmental cycle. The main outcome of this study is the demonstration that the automated classification procedure enables the analysis of cyclones' life cycles to be conducted promptly and with low computing costs, facilitating the comprehensive study of cyclone behaviour with high efficiency.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 10","pages":"3568-3588"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141967099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impact of decreasing land–sea horizontal pressure gradient on the lightning activity over western India 陆海水平气压梯度下降对印度西部闪电活动的影响
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8542
Abhijeet Gangane, Prajna Priyadarshini, Sunil D. Pawar, Venkatachalam Gopalakrishnan, Hamid Ali Syed, Jayesh Dhangar
{"title":"Impact of decreasing land–sea horizontal pressure gradient on the lightning activity over western India","authors":"Abhijeet Gangane,&nbsp;Prajna Priyadarshini,&nbsp;Sunil D. Pawar,&nbsp;Venkatachalam Gopalakrishnan,&nbsp;Hamid Ali Syed,&nbsp;Jayesh Dhangar","doi":"10.1002/joc.8542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8542","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With future global warming projections, how lightning activity changes in the warmer world is still a debated and challenging question. During the Indian pre-monsoon season (March–May), land surface heating and moisture availability due to prevailing winds from the neighbouring oceans provide favourable conditions for thunderstorm formation. Based on 24 years of lightning data from 2000 to 2023 detected by Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector (LIS/OTD) and Indian Lightning Location Network (ILLN), the trend of lightning flashes over western India (15°–22°N, 72.5°–81°E) has been investigated. Our results demonstrate a steady decline in lightning activity during the pre-monsoon season over western India, which contradicts the previous studies suggesting an increasing lightning trend over the Indian Subcontinent and other parts of the world. Our analysis has shown a falling trend of lightning activity at a rate of −0.066 flashes·km<sup>−2</sup> year<sup>−1</sup> from 2000 to 2013 (LIS/OTD) and −0.14 M flashes·year<sup>−1</sup> from 2014 to 2023 (ILLN). Our observation and previous research strongly suggested that the pressure difference between the land and the neighbouring oceans during pre-monsoon and monsoon has been weakening for a long time over the Indian region, and we have found a consistent reduction in wind speed over the study region. Here, we propose that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land–sea thermal contrast and, thereby, reduces the horizontal pressure gradient. Further, the decreasing trend in the land–sea horizontal pressure gradient resulted in a declining rate of wind speed over western India, affecting moisture transport over land. Thus, the study emphasizes the impact of the decreased land–sea horizontal pressure gradient on declining lighting activity in western India.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 10","pages":"3641-3654"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme climate events and future population exposure under climate change in the Huaihe River basin of China based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles projections 基于 CMIP6 多模型集合预测的中国淮河流域极端气候事件和未来人口在气候变化下的暴露程度
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8543
Tian Yao, Chuanhao Wu, Pat J.-F. Yeh, Jiayun Li, Xuan Wang, Jiahao Cheng, Jun Zhou, Bill X. Hu
{"title":"Extreme climate events and future population exposure under climate change in the Huaihe River basin of China based on CMIP6 multimodel ensembles projections","authors":"Tian Yao,&nbsp;Chuanhao Wu,&nbsp;Pat J.-F. Yeh,&nbsp;Jiayun Li,&nbsp;Xuan Wang,&nbsp;Jiahao Cheng,&nbsp;Jun Zhou,&nbsp;Bill X. Hu","doi":"10.1002/joc.8543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8543","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Huaihe River basin (HRB) of China located in the climate transition zone between warm temperate and subtropical areas is highly sensitive to climatic change. However, the changes in future climate extreme events under anthropogenic warming and the population exposure to these climate extremes in HRB remain unexplored. Here, using the eight commonly used extreme climate indices and based on the bias-corrections of 16 global climate models (GCMs) in CMIP6, we present a projection and uncertainty analysis of extreme events and investigate the corresponding population exposure risk in HRB under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The 16-GCM ensemble mean projects an evident warming trend under all three scenarios with a total increase of 25.6–68.0 days in summer days (&gt;25°C) by the end of the century in HRB. Larger increases (decreases) in maximum and minimum temperatures (frost days) are projected in the western HRB. Very heavy rain days (R20mm), maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and simple daily intensity index (SDII) will experience intensification across most of HRB (especially in southern and western HRB). The consecutive dry days is projected to decrease in northwestern HRB and increase in southern HRB. However, there is a large spatial variability in GCM uncertainty with a higher SSP scenario generally having higher uncertainty. Increases in summer days and R20mm exacerbate population exposure in HRB in near future (2030–2059), but in far future (2070–2099) although summer days (R20mm) continues to rise, population exposure is expected to decrease due to the rapid decline in population density.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 10","pages":"3655-3680"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shifts in bioclimatic zones mirror climate change signals in a tropical agriculture-dominated Bharathapuzha River basin of southern Western Ghats (India) 印度西高止山脉南部以热带农业为主的 Bharathapuzha 河流域生物气候区的变化反映了气候变化信号
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8535
Sinan Nizar, Jobin Thomas, P. J. Jainet, Dawn Emil Sebastian, U. Surendran, Balaji Narasimhan, K. P. Sudheer
{"title":"Shifts in bioclimatic zones mirror climate change signals in a tropical agriculture-dominated Bharathapuzha River basin of southern Western Ghats (India)","authors":"Sinan Nizar,&nbsp;Jobin Thomas,&nbsp;P. J. Jainet,&nbsp;Dawn Emil Sebastian,&nbsp;U. Surendran,&nbsp;Balaji Narasimhan,&nbsp;K. P. Sudheer","doi":"10.1002/joc.8535","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8535","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Assessing anthropogenic climate change in a regional context is challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of climatic variables and is more complicated than at the global scale. Especially in the Tropics, such spatial variations are expected to increase, warranting the identification of homogeneous climatic zones for assessing regional climate change. The present study explores the ability of bioclimatic variables in defining regional climatic zones, and the detection of climate change therein. We hypothesize that the identification of homogeneous climatic zones based on bioclimatic variables could be an effective approach rather than the conventional extreme climate-based indices to identify climate change signals. To demonstrate the hypothesis, bioclimatic variables representing the generalized climatic characteristics of a tropical river basin were derived from observed gridded datasets of rainfall and temperature. Clusters of homogeneous climatic zones were identified, and their temporal variations were analysed to examine the existence of climate change. The results indicate that despite the spatial heterogeneity in extreme climate-based indices, the bioclimatic variables-based approach renders a meaningful representation of the regional climatic pattern. Investigation of bioclimatic zones of the study area helped to identify a shift in its climatic zones with a slant towards drier conditions. Further, future changes in climatic zones were identified from 13 different GCMs that participated in the CMIP6, projecting drier conditions over the basin, with varying spatial extend based on future emission scenarios. The study significantly contributes towards the identification of climatologically fragile regions in changing climate, which is an essential component in developing any regional climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 10","pages":"3499-3513"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141967950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The correlation of long-range Saharan dust advections with the precipitation and radiative budget in the Central Mediterranean 撒哈拉沙尘长程平流与地中海中部降水和辐射预算的相关性
IF 3.5 3区 地球科学
International Journal of Climatology Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1002/joc.8538
Lorenzo Silvestri, Chiara Petroselli, Miriam Saraceni, Stefano Crocchianti, David Cappelletti, Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini
{"title":"The correlation of long-range Saharan dust advections with the precipitation and radiative budget in the Central Mediterranean","authors":"Lorenzo Silvestri,&nbsp;Chiara Petroselli,&nbsp;Miriam Saraceni,&nbsp;Stefano Crocchianti,&nbsp;David Cappelletti,&nbsp;Paolina Bongioannini Cerlini","doi":"10.1002/joc.8538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8538","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This work analyses 10 years (from 2009 to 2018) of long-range Saharan dust advections (SDAs) and their correlation with the precipitation and radiative budget over the Central Mediterranean region. The identification of the SDAs is based on back-trajectories (BTs) of air mass and complementary measurements of the dust deposited at the site of Monte Martano in Central Italy. The associated synoptic circulation weather types (CWT), precipitation and radiation variables have been estimated by using ERA5 and CAMS reanalysis, satellite data and raingauge observations. It is found that the 50% of all SDAs occur under a CWT characterized by an upper level trough over the Western Mediterranean and a high-pressure system over the Eastern Mediterranean. Strong southerly winds, large vertical integral of water vapour transport and a positive anomaly of 2 m temperature are associated with dust uplift and transport. The effect of dust on rainfall intensity puts forward the important modulation of the aerosol effects on the radiative budget with a latitudinal dependence. On dusty days, intense rainfall increases over the northern Central Mediterranean and light rainfall is suppressed in the southern Central Mediterranean, pointing out a relevant correlation between dust and the intensification of extreme events. Other than affecting rainfall intensity, the stronger surface heating over the southern Central Mediterranean, which is correlated to a higher dust optical depth, causes a local maximum of sea surface temperature (SST) and near-surface temperature anomaly.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"44 10","pages":"3548-3567"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8538","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141967951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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