International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Extreme Event Attribution in the Mediterranean","authors":"Aglaé Jézéquel,&nbsp;Davide Faranda,&nbsp;Philippe Drobinski,&nbsp;Piero Lionello","doi":"10.1002/joc.8799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8799","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Mediterranean basin is a hot spot of climate change in simulated scenarios, where effects are already observable. Increases in some climate extremes (terrestrial and marine heatwaves, agricultural droughts, extreme precipitation in some areas, and fire weather) are already observed. These extremes are expected to further increase in the future, together with more frequent pluvial and coastal floods, a reduction in cyclone and medicanes frequency (but increase of their maximum intensity) and increasing meteorological droughts. This review paper addresses methodological advances in the science of extreme event attribution, that is, techniques to better understand how much anthropogenic climate change affected the intensity, frequency and physical processes leading to observed extreme weather events, with a focus on studies in the Mediterranean basin.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8799","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Tibetan Plateau Westerly Jet Stream During July–August and Its Linkage With Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Yuhan Feng,&nbsp;Sulan Nan,&nbsp;Ge Liu,&nbsp;Jingpeng Liu,&nbsp;Ting Zhang,&nbsp;Yuwei Zhou","doi":"10.1002/joc.8811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8811","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using gridded and station-observed precipitation datasets from the China National Meteorological Information Center, GPCC precipitation data, and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to 2021, this paper identifies a westerly jet to the north of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during July–August, which differs from the typical East Asian westerly jet and is named the TP jet (TPJ). The relationship between the meridional location of the TPJ and precipitation in the TP and the associated mechanism are investigated. The results show that the TP precipitation is closely related to the meridional location of the TPJ. When the TPJ is located farther north, more-than-normal precipitation occurs in the central-western TP, and less-than-normal precipitation occurs in the southern part of eastern TP, thereby constituting an east–west antiphase mode. This mode is reversed when the TPJ is located farther south. The four-quadrant conceptual model of the jet stream can explain the link between the location of the TPJ and the mode of TP precipitation. When the TPJ is farther north, an anomalous meridional-vertical circulation cell appears at the entrance of the TPJ, with the central-western TP located at the upward branch of this cell. The upward motion is conducive to the convergence of water vapour and the increase in total cloud cover and produces more-than-normal precipitation in the central-western TP. Meanwhile, an anomalous meridional-vertical circulation cell appears at the exit of the TPJ, which is opposite to that at the TPJ entrance. The downward branch of this anomalous cell governs the southern part of eastern TP, causing water vapour divergence and suppressing total cloud cover and precipitation. The results suggest that the TPJ should be considered a special system when exploring the cause of TP summer precipitation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole: A Neural Network Approach","authors":"Rashi Aggarwal,&nbsp;Manpreet Kaur,&nbsp;K. C. Tripathi","doi":"10.1002/joc.8792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8792","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In light of the importance of the formation of dipoles in the Indian Ocean (IO), it becomes pertinent to investigate whether or not such events are inherently predictable. The authors investigate if the formation of a dipole is the result of local weather events or that of the dynamics of the system that generates the sea surface temperature (SST) time series. In the present study, artificial neural network prediction errors in different temporal regions have been analysed to answer the question for the 1997 event. It is found that the phenomenon was a consequence of the state of the SST system as a whole together with the evolution laws. As El-Nino and intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) are believed to have forced the formation of the 1997 dipole, the prediction errors are also analysed to statistically investigate such possibility. It is concluded that the ISO may provide the stochastic forcing to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) which is in agreement with the observations made by dynamical modelling of the system. The model is further evaluated for categorical forecast skills to forecast the anomalous points. The analysis shows that the model is capable of forecasting the anomalous points in the SST time series and that the dipole formation is a result of the deterministic laws governing the IO SST time series.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144255975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Temporal and Spatial Variability of Cloud Properties Over Poland Based on Satellite Data (2003–2021)","authors":"Izabela Wojciechowska","doi":"10.1002/joc.8804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8804","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Cloud cover is a key meteorological element that plays a crucial role in Earth's climate system and remains a significant source of uncertainty in climate estimations. Over recent decades, changes in the frequency of certain cloud types have been observed in Poland, including increases in high and convective clouds and a decrease in stratiform clouds. These trends underscore the need for detailed regional analyses of cloud properties. In this study, we present a comprehensive 19-year analysis of cloud top pressure (CTP), cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud effective radius (CER) and cloud water path (CWP). We investigate the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Cloud Product Collection 6.1 Level 2 data from both the Terra and Aqua spacecraft, covering the period from 2003 to 2021. Our findings indicate that, over the past two decades, CTP over Poland has consistently decreased by 7.3–9.7 hPa per decade. This decline primarily affects northern and north-western Poland, with local decreases reaching up to −40.0 hPa per decade. High clouds (CTP &lt; 440 hPa) exhibited the most pronounced changes, with a statistically significant negative trend observed over 25%–35% of the area of Poland. While area-averaged monthly means for cloud microphysical and optical characteristics did not change over the analysed period, a detailed investigation of clouds with different CTP or COT revealed additional phenomena. In particular, COT declined by 1.15–2.25 every 10 years for low-to-mid level cloud (CTP 560–800 hPa), CER and CWP decreased in cloud with COT &lt; 9.4 during morning passes, and CER and CWP increased in cloud with COT ≥ 9.4 during afternoon passes. These findings are particularly important for understanding the radiative properties of clouds and their role in atmospheric energy balance.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying Multi-Day Precipitation Extremes and Their Linkages With Atmospheric Moisture Flux Over India","authors":"T. H. Gaspar,&nbsp;R. M. Trigo,&nbsp;A. M. Ramos,&nbsp;A. S. Raghuvanshi,&nbsp;A. Russo,&nbsp;P. M. M. Soares,&nbsp;T. M. Ferreira,&nbsp;A. Agarwal","doi":"10.1002/joc.8751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8751","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Indian subcontinent is dominated by a very pronounced summer monsoon season from June to September and a less intense autumn monsoon, both posing major challenges to the densely populated regions, namely through flash floods and landslides. Moreover, the spatial patterns and temporal extent of extreme precipitation events are not uniform across India, with event's durations varying across regions and multiple triggering factors. Here, we make use of a high-resolution daily precipitation dataset covering the entire Indian territory, from 1951 to 2022, to analyse multi-day precipitation extremes and their linkages with regional atmospheric moisture fluxes. We consider 10 sub-regions of India, characterised by different climatic regimes and apply an objective ranking of extreme precipitation events, across various time scales, ranging from 1 to 10 days. Obtained results confirm that the method accurately detects and ranks the most extreme precipitation events in each region, providing information on the daily evolution of the magnitude (and spatial extent affected) of high precipitation values in each region. Moreover, results show that top rank events can be associated with different types of storms affecting the four main coastal regions of India. In particular, some top rank events can be critically linked to long duration events (e.g., 10 days) that can be missed in ranks for shorter duration (e.g., 1–3 days) periods, thus stressing the need to employ multi-day precipitation extremes ranking. Finally, an in-depth analysis of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport is presented for the top 10-day events influencing the four coastal regions of India. Results show low pressure systems, which persist over multiple days and play a critical role in linking IVT to MDPEs across the Indian subcontinent. Overall, we are confident that our findings are valuable in advancing disaster risk reduction strategies, optimising water resource management practices, and formulating climate change adaptation strategies specifically tailored for the Indian subcontinent.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8751","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143749997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential Impacts of the North Atlantic Horseshoe Pattern on China Compound Heat-Humidity Extremes","authors":"Jiayi Mu,&nbsp;Qianrong Ma,&nbsp;Shiquan Wan,&nbsp;Rui Hu,&nbsp;Shujuan Hu,&nbsp;Guolin Feng","doi":"10.1002/joc.8808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8808","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Compound heat-humidity extremes (CHHEs) have gained significant attention as crucial indicators of heat stress. This research investigates the summer wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) to elucidate the spatial variation of CHHEs across China from 1961 to 2022. The results reveal a clear increase in CHHEs, with the highest WBGT observed in southeastern China, while significant increases are noted in the northwestern and northeastern regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies three leading patterns: a consistent spatial increase, a north (decreasing)–south (increasing) dipole, and a west (decreasing)–east (increasing) dipole. Both observations and model simulations indicate that the North Atlantic Horseshoe (NAH) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern is a reliable predictor for CHHEs in China via influencing the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and modulating large-scale circulations. This combined with the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone (WNPAC), leads to a consistent rise in CHHEs, particularly in Central China. Regarding the north–south dipole, air-sea interactions driven by the NAH reinforce the negative phase of the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern through the NAO, intensifying cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia to northern China and southern China, respectively. Furthermore, the NAH pattern during May–July effectively predicts summer CHHEs north–south dipole variations using the genetic algorithm-based evolving neural network. This research offers valuable insights for predicting CHHEs in China from the perspective of North Atlantic SST anomalies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8808","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Elucidating the Varied Characteristics of Compound Hot–Drought From Two Distinctive Extreme Events in the Yangtze River Valley","authors":"An Xuehua,&nbsp;Sun Shanlei,&nbsp;Ma Qianrong,&nbsp;Wu Hao,&nbsp;Li Daiyuan,&nbsp;Wu Wei","doi":"10.1002/joc.8809","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8809","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Compound hot-drought events exert profound impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and public health, highlighting the need to understand their characteristics and driving mechanisms for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study reveals that the severity of summer hot–drought events in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) significantly increased during 1961–2022. Among these, 2013 and 2022 represent two distinct types of hot-drought events: High-temperature and both high-temperature and deficient precipitation dominated. In both years, the eastward expansion of the South Asian High and the westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High established persistent high-pressure systems over the YRV. In 2013, cooler sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Northwestern Indian Ocean promoted the anomalous westerly, reducing the southwest water vapour transport to the region. Concurrently, the Western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) positioned over the East China Sea facilitated limited moisture inflow from the Pacific. This configuration, mainly governed by persistent high-pressure systems, resulted in high-temperature-dominated compound events. In contrast, the 2022 event displayed greater complexity. Warmer SST anomalies in the Bay of Bengal intensified convective activity, enhancing the local Hadley circulation and promoting descending motion over the YRV. Strengthened easterly, influenced by the Matsuno–Gill response, contributed to the westward extension of the WNPAC and altered tropical water vapour transport, causing pronounced tropospheric descent and moisture deficits over the YRV. Negative tropospheric potential vorticity anomalies further exacerbated the compound event through land-atmosphere interactions, including scarce precipitation, soil drying and increased surface sensible heat flux. Consequently, the 2022 event was more severe and multifaceted than that in 2013.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can CMIP6 Models Accurately Reproduce Terrestrial Evapotranspiration Across China?","authors":"Hui Shen,&nbsp;Jianduo Li,&nbsp;Guocan Wu,&nbsp;Aizhong Ye,&nbsp;Yuna Mao","doi":"10.1002/joc.8794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8794","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) plays a fundamental role in the climate system. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides a valuable framework for assessing global climate model performance, but gaps remain in evaluating its ET estimates, particularly in China. To fill this gap, we employed the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and the water balance ET method to validate the CMIP6 ET outputs from 1980 to 2014 at both national and river basin scales. Key findings include: (1) GLEAM ET performs comparably to the water balance method, making it reliable for validating CMIP6 ET outputs. From 1980 to 2014, the annual mean ET in GLEAM for China ranges from 355 to 411 mm/year. In contrast, most CMIP6 models overestimate ET, with the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean ranging from 524 to 542 mm/year, showing considerable variation among models. Spatially, the MME overestimates ET across over 90% of China. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) results align closely with reference data, with overestimation concentrated in southwest China. (2) At the national scale, CMIP6 trends range from −0.36 to 0.58 mm/year², which contrasts sharply with the GLEAM trend of 1.27 mm/year². At the basin scale, most models overestimate annual ET compared to GLEAM, with discrepancies particularly evident in the major river basins. The smallest difference in ET trend simulation occurs in the Northwest River basin, where model distributions are more concentrated, while the largest discrepancies appear in the Pearl River basin, where model performance is more scattered. Furthermore, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analysis reveals high ensemble consistency in regions such as the Haihe, Yellow, Yangtze, Pearl and Songliao River basins, indicating more reliable model performance in these areas. This study contributes to enhancing the reliability and accuracy of climate projections, which is essential for informed decision-making and policy formulation in atmospheric science.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Vegetation and Land Surface Temperature in Saudi Arabia: Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Sites From 2010 to 2023","authors":"Mazen E. Assiri,&nbsp;Md. Arfan Ali,&nbsp;Lama Alamri,&nbsp;Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui,&nbsp;Ayman S. Ghulam,&nbsp;Shamsuddin Shahid","doi":"10.1002/joc.8781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8781","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Saudi Arabia has one of the greatest water shortages and the least vegetation in the world, which is potentially exacerbating the issue of environmental impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the interaction between climate change, vegetation dynamics and land surface temperature (LST). The present study investigates the spatio-temporal distributions, variations, change detection and trends of vegetation dynamics and surface temperature over eight agricultural sites in Saudi Arabia using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and LST from Landsat 7 (Enhance Thematic Mapper Plus: ETM⁺) and Landsat 8 (operational land imager: OLI) measurements for the period 2010–2023. The study also examined the relationship between NDVI, LST and climate variables such as air temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and soil moisture. Results showed that an NDVI &gt; 0.20 represents vegetation in Saudi Arabia. Higher values of NDVI were found in Baysh, Jazan province, compared to other agricultural sites. Significant annual and seasonal variations in NDVI were also observed across eight major agricultural sites in Saudi Arabia, attributable to the region's varying climate conditions. Vegetation expansion in 2023 exceeded that in 2014 in Buraydah (304.34 km²), Tabarjal (63.81 km²), Hail (33.20 km²), Al Qirw (22.53 km²) and Baysh (3.07 km²), while reductions were noted in Wadi Al Dawasir (274.58 km²), Tabuk (88.56 km²) and Al Ahsa (27.30 km²). The LST over soil and vegetated surfaces showed that vegetation notably reduced LST at Hail (3.14°C), Al Ahsa and Wadi Al Dawasir (5.43°C), Buraydah (4.53°C), Baysh (2.71°C), Al Qirw (5.17°C), Tabuk (6.24°C) and Tabarjal (3.13°C). The study found that NDVI, LST and climate variables are positively and negatively correlated, which indicates a significant impact of climate change on vegetation patterns. The findings of this study are highly relevant for informing agricultural and environmental policy development in Saudi Arabia, with a focus on enhancing vegetation cover, mitigating the impacts of rising temperatures and advancing sustainable agricultural practices to address the challenges posed by climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143905183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought in Serbia From 1961 to 2020 Using SPI and SPEI","authors":"Lazar Filipović,&nbsp;Suzana Putniković,&nbsp;Borko Stosic,&nbsp;Tatijana Stosic,&nbsp;Vladimir Djurdjević,&nbsp;Ivana Tošić","doi":"10.1002/joc.8803","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8803","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The main objective of this study was to analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Serbia using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and the standardised precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The duration and severity of drought were determined, and the trend of the indices for different accumulation periods, for 3 months (SPI3 and SPEI3), 6 months (SPI6 and SPEI6) and 12 months (SPI12 and SPEI12) were analysed for 10 meteorological stations in Serbia in the period 1961–2020. There was a high correlation between the SPI and SPEI on all time scales. Droughts were observed in Serbia in the following periods: 1961–1963, 1971–1972, 1987–1993, 2000–2003 and after 2011. The drought observed in 2000–2001 was recorded with both indices for all time scales at all stations. The longest drought was measured from June 2011 to February 2013, with a duration of 21 months and a severity of −37.5 with the SPEI12 in Loznica. The 1972 drought is observed in almost all of Serbia, although it was more pronounced in northern Serbia. A statistically significant negative trend is observed for SPEI12 at 6 stations. The SPEI tends to show longer and more severe dry periods than the SPI for the later part of the period under consideration, especially after 2000. As there is a significant increase in temperature in Serbia, the SPEI is better suited than the SPI for analysing drought characteristics under warming conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"45 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.8803","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144256593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}