International Journal of Climatology最新文献

{"title":"Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Spatial Asymmetries in the Lesser Antilles","authors":"Catherine Nabukulu,&nbsp;Janneke Ettema,&nbsp;Bastian van den Bout,&nbsp;Victor. G. Jetten","doi":"10.1002/joc.70382","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70382","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study utilises GPM-IMERG satellite rainfall estimates to analyse the asymmetric rainfall patterns of 35 tropical cyclones (TCs) that passed over the Caribbean Lesser Antilles (CLA) islands between 2000 and 2020. The aim is to evaluate whether TC rainfall spatial–temporal patterns vary systematically across Saffir-Simpson (SS) categories to strengthen early warning protocols. The widely used SS scale focuses on wind intensity, overlooking the significant role of TC rainfall in flooding. In the CLA, landfalling and offshore TCs cause significant rainfall impacts across multiple islands and storms exhibit high variability in trajectories, durations and SS category transitions. The study examines the relationship between SS categories and TC rainfall characteristics, using maximum sustained winds (MSW) to classify storms into categories. Linear and monotonic correlation analyses are performed using continuous MSW values to explore overall associations with rainfall; however, reporting and interpretation focus on discrete SS categories, which represent the operationally relevant storm intensity classes for hazard analysis. Although SS categories represent linearly increasing storm intensity, rainfall exhibits nonlinear patterns with significant variability within and across categories. Contrary to common expectations, TCs in the highest SS categories (H4 and H5) do not consistently produce the highest rainfall. Tropical storms can generate rainfall amounts comparable to or exceeding those of hurricanes and hurricanes in categories H1–H3 sometimes produce more intense rainfall than those in H4 and H5. The study also examines rainfall asymmetry in the four quadrants (NE, SE, SW, NW) around the TC eye by SS category. Rainfall is generally concentrated in the NE and SE quadrants, but the SW and NW quadrants also contribute substantially, reflecting the spiralling nature of TCs, which continuously refuel rainfall in all quadrants throughout the storm's lifecycle. These findings underscore the complexity of TC rainfall patterns and the need to integrate such variability into early warning systems to enhance disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70382","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weather Patterns Associated With Coastal Disasters in Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil","authors":"Karine Bastos Leal,&nbsp;Danilo Couto de Souza,&nbsp;Matheus Bonjour Laviola-da-Silva,&nbsp;Susana Silva da Pereira,&nbsp;Thales Sehn Körting,&nbsp;Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina","doi":"10.1002/joc.70384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70384","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Synoptic-scale weather systems are key drivers of extreme nearshore wave conditions, which, when interacting with intensive coastal urbanization, significantly increase the risk of coastal erosion and associated socio-economic and environmental damages. Understanding the dominant weather patterns (WPs) linked to coastal hazards is essential for improving forecasting capabilities and enabling proactive disaster risk reduction. This study identifies the primary WPs associated with coastal disasters along the Santa Catarina coast, Southern Brazil, between 1998 and 2020. Disaster dates were derived from the Disaster Information Form (FIDES) and the Damage Assessment Form (AVADAN), resulting in a validated dataset of 105 coastal disaster events. A clustering approach based on the K-Means algorithm was applied to atmospheric and oceanographic variables, including geopotential height at 1000 hPa, zonal and meridional wind components (from ERA5 reanalysis), and significant wave height (Hs) from WAVERYS. The analysis identified five distinct WPs responsible for driving coastal disasters in the region, predominantly associated with cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. The most recurrent pattern was linked to a cyclonic system near the southern Brazilian coast, producing high-energy wave events affecting multiple coastal sectors. Another critical WP was characterized by the persistence of an intensified high-pressure system, generating widespread impacts across the entire coastline. Seasonal variability was evident, with autumn recording the highest frequency of disaster events. The spatial distribution of damages revealed that the northern sector, despite experiencing lower wave heights, was more vulnerable due to the lack of coastal natural protective features. In contrast, the southern sector, protected by extensive dune systems, reported fewer but economically significant impacts. The findings underscore the importance of integrating synoptic-scale pattern recognition into early warning systems and coastal management practices, providing a scientific basis for risk-informed decision-making, disaster preparedness, and adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing the World War 2 Warm Anomaly in HadSST.4.2.0.0","authors":"Caroline Sandford,&nbsp;Nick Rayner","doi":"10.1002/joc.70388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70388","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present an update to the Hadley Centre Sea-Surface Temperature dataset (HadSST.4.2.0.0) that addresses residual warm bias during the Second World War (WW2). Using an existing quantitative definition of the WW2 warm anomaly we identify Engine Room Intake (ERI) bias corrections as the dominant factor in this warm bias in HadSST4, and use this to propose new constraints on ERI bias estimates prior to 1950. In addition, we implement corrections for truncation bias in observations from the Japanese Kobe Collection, spanning the period from 1933 to 1961. We evaluate the effects of these changes with respect to the previous version of HadSST and compare with the most recent iterations of other SST datasets including ERSSTv6, COBE-SST3 and DCSST. We show that it is possible to remove the WW2 warm anomaly using a physically-based approach that maintains the independence of HadSST from land surface temperature records, and preserves structural diversity within the range of available global SST datasets.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70388","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergent Trends and Driving Factors in Meteorological Flash Droughts Across China's Humid and Arid Regions","authors":"Xiaojuan Lu,&nbsp;Junhu Zhao,&nbsp;Jinhu Yang,&nbsp;Jinqing Zuo,&nbsp;Pengcheng Yan,&nbsp;Hongyan Shen,&nbsp;Yiping Li","doi":"10.1002/joc.70380","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70380","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) typically precede agricultural flash droughts, with their propagation risk heightened by intensified land-atmosphere coupling under global warming. Although China is highly vulnerable to such events, systematic analyses of the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of MFDs remain limited. Here, we employ the operationally used Meteorological Drought Composite Index (MCI) to characterize MFDs across China's climatic zones and seasons from 1980 to 2024. Our analysis reveals three principal findings: (1) Spatially, humid regions experience more frequent but shorter-duration MFDs, whereas onset speed exhibits no clear humidity dependence. (2) Temporally, while China overall shows declining MFD frequency, prolonged duration, and significantly slowed onset (99% CI), the humid region (HR) displays contrasting trends: increasing frequency (significant in western HR in summer at 95% CI and in eastern HR in spring at 90% CI), extended duration (most pronounced in summer), and significantly accelerated onset in eastern HR (95% CI). Notably, the HR saw concurrent rises in both frequency and duration during 2020–2024, amplifying ecological risks. (3) Mechanistically, in drier regions, evapotranspiration is soil moisture-limited during MFD onset, and coupled soil moisture–evapotranspiration suppression prolongs droughts. In humid regions, evapotranspiration shifts from energy-limited at onset to soil moisture-limited during recovery, resulting in shorter events. The duration of precipitation deficits emerges as a dominant driver, contributing over 30% to both MFD duration and onset speed. These insights advance the mechanistic understanding of flash droughts and provide a foundation for improved monitoring, early warning, and adaptive management across China.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are West African Heat-Lows Analogous to Dry Tropical Cyclones?","authors":"Aaron Kruskie,&nbsp;Daniel Chavas,&nbsp;Matthew Huber","doi":"10.1002/joc.70379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70379","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Heat-lows are low pressure systems that past idealised modelling work has noted qualitatively resemble dry tropical cyclones (TCs). This is because of their low-level cyclonic circulation co-located with strong surface sensible heat fluxes and deep dry convection. Direct quantitative tests of this resemblance are lacking, which is the focus of this work. We compare the climatology of summertime West African heat-lows from a pre-existing data of tracked dry low pressure systems against that of the traditional tropical cyclone potential intensity (PI) calculated from ERA5 reanalysis, generalised to apply over land with known sensible heat flux and variable land surface roughness. We find that the spatial distribution of heat-low tracks correlates well with mean PI and the magnitude of peak near-surface wind speeds (~10 m s⁻¹) are reasonably well predicted by PI. However, heat-low intensity shows minimal diurnal variation despite strong diurnal variations in PI. This suggests that they are not strongly driven by surface heat fluxes necessary to support a TC-like system. Moreover, the composite structure of heat-lows are found to be highly asymmetric and baroclinic, even when focusing on a small subset of the strongest cases. These results together suggest that West African heat-lows are likely not analogous to pure dry TCs. Surface heat fluxes may still help contribute to their generation, and instead are likely sustained by the dynamics of traditional easterly waves or hybrid systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70379","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148268930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-Country-Multi-City Characterisation of Heat Stress and Exposure in Africa","authors":"Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo,&nbsp;Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri,&nbsp;Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase Daramola,&nbsp;Bobde Vishal,&nbsp;Kazeem Abiodun Ishola,&nbsp;Oluwafemi Benjamin Obe,&nbsp;Emmanuel Olaoluwa Eresanya,&nbsp;Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola,&nbsp;Charles Onyutha,&nbsp;Brian Odhiambo Ayugi,&nbsp;Patricia Nying'uro","doi":"10.1002/joc.70385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70385","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study presents the first continent-wide assessment of long-term (1974–2023) summer heat stress in Africa using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5-HEAT reanalysis datasets. Employing a grid-specific definition of summer, we analysed UTCI trends across spatial (continental to city scale) and temporal (decadal to hourly) dimensions. While annual UTCI anomalies range 0.2°C–1.6°C, substantial intensification emerges at finer scales. The frequency, duration and spatial extent of ‘very strong’ (38°C–46°C) and ‘extreme’ (≥ 46°C) heat stress have increased markedly, particularly, in the Sahel. Heat-stressed hours (UTCI &gt; 32°C) rose by 2%–25% across most countries, with extreme events doubling in 3–5 and 6–8 days episodes. City-level analyses reveal escalating risks in large urban centres like Cairo, Lagos and Kano. As climate projections indicate further intensification, the findings underscore the urgent need for targeted heat-health adaptation and early warning systems to protect vulnerable populations across the continent.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70385","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal Variations of Summertime Compound Hot and Dry Events in China and the Associated Atmospheric Circulations Using Daily Threshold Indices","authors":"Huixin Li,&nbsp;Anqin Tan,&nbsp;Jiani Zeng,&nbsp;Botao Zhou,&nbsp;Qiuxiao Zhu,&nbsp;Yi Fan,&nbsp;Yuan Yuan","doi":"10.1002/joc.70377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70377","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Under global warming, compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) pose increasing threats across China. This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of summer CHDEs and their monthly atmospheric drivers using two independent datasets (CN05.1 and satellite-based) during 1979–2022. A daily-scale Compound Hot-Dry Index (CHDI) is developed to identify co-occurring high-temperature and low-precipitation extremes. Results show that the climatological frequency of CHDEs is highest in Northwest China, while the most pronounced increasing trends are found in Southwest China. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly CHDI fields reveals a coherent monthly shift in the dominant mode of variability: the primary centre of action migrates from Northwest China in June to Northern China in July, and finally to the Yangtze River Valley in August. Dynamical diagnosis indicates this progression is governed by distinct teleconnection patterns. The June pattern is driven by a Rossby wave train associated with the silk road pattern (SRP), which establishes an equivalent-barotropic Central Asian ridge, inducing subsidence and blocking moisture to favour CHDEs in the northwest. In July, the dominant mode is linked to the Polar-Eurasian (POL) pattern, sustaining a Baikal High that promotes heating over Northern China while anomalous easterlies impede Pacific moisture transport. By August, an intensified and westward-extended western Pacific subtropical high becomes the key driver, causing subsidence and disrupting the monsoon flow to trigger CHDEs in the Yangtze River Valley. These findings highlight a robust monthly progression in CHDE dynamics, offering a process-based framework for understanding compound extremes in a warming climate.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wintertime Atmosphere-Forced and Ocean-Driven Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension in HighResMIP Simulations","authors":"Yi Wang,&nbsp;Jing Ma,&nbsp;Xingyang Guo","doi":"10.1002/joc.70376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70376","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using observational and reanalysis data and coupled model simulations with varying resolutions from High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) are decomposed into atmosphere-forced and ocean-driven components through a simple stochastic climate model and a transition of dominance in wintertime air–sea interaction over the KOE region is revealed. Focusing on the lead–lag relationship relative to January KOE SSTAs, results show that at a 1-month lead, high-pressure anomalies over the North Pacific weaken the Aleutian Low and generate easterly anomalies over the KOE, which suppress evaporation and induce downward turbulent heat flux (THF) anomalies. This process, dominated by large-scale atmospheric forcing, sustains the development of positive SSTAs. At a 1-month lag, the positive SSTAs in the KOE region tend to force the atmosphere, inducing equivalent barotropic low-pressure anomalies and upward THF, indicating a transition towards ocean-driven dominance. Both high- and low-resolution models of ECMWF-IFS and EC-Earth3P reproduce the observed reversal of midlatitude atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the KOE SSTAs. However, clear differences emerge in the simulated lagged, ocean-driven atmospheric response. The ECMWF-IFS-HR models (atmosphere ~25 km; ocean ~25 km) better capture the spatial pattern and relative contribution of ocean-driven SST variability to atmospheric anomalies, whereas the ECMWF-IFS-LR models (atmosphere ~50 km; ocean ~100 km) do not clearly exhibit ocean-driven dominance in the lagged atmospheric response. Further analyses of EC-Earth3P (atmosphere ~100 km; ocean ~100 km) and EC-Earth3P-HR (atmosphere ~50 km; ocean ~25 km) models indicate notable inter-model uncertainty in the lagged atmospheric response, suggesting the influence of model dependence beyond horizontal resolution.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148268918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Structural Analysis of the Rainy Season Through Gaussian Approximation","authors":"Baruch Ziv,&nbsp;Lidiya Shendrik,&nbsp;Ron Drori,&nbsp;Adi Etkin,&nbsp;Hadas Saaroni","doi":"10.1002/joc.70378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70378","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Motivated by the need to quantify the internal structure of the rainy season and thereby improve the understanding of rainfall seasonality, this study develops a new methodology based on daily precipitation data. The approach decomposes each rainy season into rain modes, separately for seasonal and intra-seasonal timescales. Daily rainfall is approximated by a sum of Gaussians, capturing the gradual onset, peak, and decay of rainy periods and enabling estimation of each mode's timing, amplitude, and duration. Kernel-density polar histograms depict the timing of the rainy season and allow robust identification of bimodal regimes. The Seasonality Level (<i>SL</i>) quantifies the prominence of the rainy season through the mean ratio of seasonal maxima to the intervening minima, providing an alternative to traditional monthly climatological-based indices by avoiding the use of calendar boundaries and climatological means. The Modality Level (<i>ML</i>) measures the separation between successive intra-seasonal modes. Application to 19 stations across nine climate types shows that <i>SL</i> ranges from ~2 in tropical rainforest and mid-latitude wet climates to ~90 in Mediterranean climates, with fully dry summers. <i>ML</i> varies from 3 in tropical and mid-latitude wet climates to over 50 in arid climates. Intra-seasonal modes exhibit a typical frequency of 1–2 months, making their annual count negatively proportional to <i>SL</i> (<i>R</i> = −0.74). A moderate positive correlation between <i>SL</i> and <i>ML</i> (<i>R</i> = +0.42) reflects a tendency of short-lived rain events to reduce the prominence of modes at both seasonal and intra-seasonal timescales. The methodology provides a flexible and objective framework for analysing rainfall regimes across diverse climates, revealing structural features obscured by conventional monthly aggregation. Its ability to summarize annual rainfall into interpretable seasonal and intra-seasonal modes offers new opportunities for climate classification, hydrological applications, and assessments of rainfall changes under future climate scenarios.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A New Hybrid Approach Applying Feature Engineering to Model High Resolution Air Temperature Across Israel","authors":"Juan David Briceno,&nbsp;Michael Dorman,&nbsp;Guillaume Barbalat,&nbsp;Elena Colicino,&nbsp;Massimo Stafoggia,&nbsp;Johanna Lepeule,&nbsp;Itai Kloog","doi":"10.1002/joc.70386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70386","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing global planetary temperature, combined with rapid urbanisation, underscores the urgent need to evaluate human exposure to air temperature. This study proposes an innovative methodology to reconstruct air temperature (Ta) from 2004 to 2022 at both 1 km and 250 m resolutions across Israel, leveraging a novel feature engineering (FE) approach. Our method enables the daily prediction of three key Ta measures: minimum (T_min), average (T_mean) and maximum (T_max) air temperatures. First, we employed FE techniques to develop geographically weighted predictors and introduced a gap-filling procedure for satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data, producing continuous surface temperature (Ts) fields. Next, we applied Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models to calibrate and predict Ta using spatial and spatio-temporal predictors, such as elevation, LST data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5), and the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI). Finally, we downscaled the 1 km Ta estimations to a 250 m resolution by calibrating the residuals of the 1 km model with variables at higher spatial detail such as Landsat LST data. The resulting models demonstrate excellent cross-validated performance, with root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.53°C to 1.01°C. This methodology offers significant advancements in exposure assessment methods for various environmental modelling applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":13779,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Climatology","volume":"46 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.70386","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148269232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}