经济学最新文献

{"title":"Economic and policy assessment on nuclear energy for Latin America’s energy transition","authors":"José Alejandro Barrera Giraldo ,&nbsp;David Galeano ,&nbsp;Daniel Morales ,&nbsp;Alfredo Trespalacios","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114771","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114771","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Latin America is projected to face significant energy deficits in the long term due to the increasing demand for electricity and the challenges surrounding the development of new energy infrastructure. While renewable sources, such as solar and wind, have shown remarkable progress, their intermittent nature and storage limitations prevent them from fully meeting the region’s growing energy needs. This paper explores the potential of nuclear energy to complement renewable sources, focusing on six target countries: Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, and El Salvador. We examine the techno-economic and policy factors that influence the deployment of nuclear power in the region, including the adoption of SMRs, which may offer more flexible and cost-effective solutions compared to large-scale nuclear power plants. We obtain deterministic LCOE values ranging from 70.88 USD/MWh to 158.57 USD/MWh according to different scenarios. In the case of Colombia, the implementation of fiscal incentives for non-conventional energy sources significantly reduces the financial leverage required for project development. Our analysis demonstrates that these incentives reduce financial leverage requirements from 65 % to 30 %, significantly enhancing the feasibility of nuclear energy projects in the region. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to generate probability density functions (PDFs) for the LCOE of each country. We highlight the scarcity of academic and policy studies on nuclear electricity generation in Latin America, in contrast to other regions. The findings suggest that nuclear energy can be pivotal in securing a reliable, low-carbon energy future for Latin America. However, the lack of region-specific data, especially on CAPEX and OPEX, poses significant barriers to its implementation. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Latin American governments to facilitate the integration of nuclear energy into their energy strategies, ensuring that it complements the growth of renewables and supports the transition to a low-carbon economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"206 ","pages":"Article 114771"},"PeriodicalIF":9.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Layered policy analysis in program evaluation using the marginal treatment effect","authors":"Ismael Mourifié ,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Wan","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106060","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106060","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes a unified approach to derive sharp bounds on conventional policy parameters when the instrumental variables (IVs) are potentially invalid. Using a <em>vine copula</em> approach, we propose a novel characterization of the identified sets for the marginal treatment effect (MTE) and the policy-relevant treatment effect (PRTE) parameters. Our method has various advantages: First, it explicitly demonstrates how imposing different IV-related assumptions with different credibility levels affects the MTE and PRTE’s identified set. Second, it provides a basis for testing model specifications and hypotheses about various imperfect IV-related assumptions. Third, it provides a tractable way to inform policy choices in the presence of uncertainty of the validity of identifying assumptions. Our approach enlarges the MTE framework’s scope by showing how it can be used to inform policy decisions even when valid instruments are not available.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":15629,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Econometrics","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 106060"},"PeriodicalIF":9.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An overview of Brazil's electricity market: Planning, dispatch models, pricing, and modernization","authors":"Walquiria N. Silva ,&nbsp;Erik Eduardo Rego ,&nbsp;Giovani G.T.T. Vieira ,&nbsp;Luís F.N. Lourenço ,&nbsp;Mauricio B.C. Salles","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Brazilian electricity market is a highly complex system that operates under a centralized dispatch model, where generation is optimized based on cost-minimization principles. This structure has historically ensured energy security and ensured coordination of hydrothermal resources. However, as the electricity matrix evolves with increasing shares of variable renewable energy, new challenges emerge concerning operational flexibility, system balancing, and market efficiency. Unlike deregulated markets where short-term price signals and locational pricing mechanisms guide dispatch decisions, the Brazilian model remains heavily cost-driven and centrally coordinated, raising discussions about its long-term adaptability. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the Brazilian electricity sector, focusing on dispatch optimization, system operation, and long-term planning frameworks as structured in 2025. The research condenses key aspects of the NEWAVE, DECOMP, and DESSEM models, detailing their role in hydrothermal scheduling and their limitations in accommodating a more dynamic and decentralized energy landscape. By consolidating fragmented discussions from the existing literature, this work bridges the knowledge gap on how Brazil's market operates and compares to more advanced market designs. Incorporating lessons learned from international experiences, the study aims to identify market mechanisms and regulatory frameworks that can enhance Brazil's pricing models, flexibility resources, and real-time system coordination. Ultimately, this study serves as a reference for the international energy community, presenting a comprehensive and structured analysis of the Brazilian electricity market. It explores potential avenues for modernization, informed by global best practices, the evolution of contemporary market paradigms, and the ongoing energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102007"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How do remaining residents react to urban vacancy in shrinking city: A KAP model analysis of Yichun, China","authors":"Hui Fu ,&nbsp;Guolei Zhou ,&nbsp;Zuopeng Ma ,&nbsp;Yanjun Liu ,&nbsp;Hongri Sun ,&nbsp;Hanchun Wu ,&nbsp;Hongmin Zhou ,&nbsp;Yu Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106244","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106244","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urban vacancy, including residential and commercial vacancies as well as urban vacant land, is a significant feature of shrinking cities and serves as a key spatial indicator. Residents' perceptions play a critical role in evaluating the effects of urban vacancy. While previous studies have explored urban vacancy objectively, limited research explores residents' subjective perceptions. This study, set in Yichun, China, used questionnaires and interviews to assess residents' perceptions and their effects on relocation, commuting, consumption, and leisure behaviours, and using the Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) framework for analysis. Findings suggest that disordered spaces reduce satisfaction with urban development, and consumption and leisure opportunities, resulting in avoidance and relocation. High awareness of residential vacancy and urban vacant land is associated with lower urban satisfaction and higher relocation intent, while commercial vacancy reduces consumption and leisure satisfaction, decreasing visitation frequency, and can indirectly affect relocation through consumption and leisure satisfaction and overall urban satisfaction. However, perceptions of urban vacant land do not affect residents' sense of security or commuting behaviour. Socio-economic factors such as age, income, and length of residence, moderate these responses. The study validates and extends the Broken Windows Theory, providing theoretical support for people-centred, smart urban planning in shrinking cities. Measures such as cleaning, renovation, repurposing disordered spaces, providing commercial facilities tailored to residents' needs, and fostering a sense of place are recommended to improve residents' satisfaction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 106244"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A window of (missed) opportunity? A comprehensive stocktake and energy-system impact assessment of global COVID-19 recovery packages","authors":"Eleftheria Zisarou ,&nbsp;Panagiotis Fragkos ,&nbsp;Dirk-Jan Van De Ven ,&nbsp;Shivika Mittal ,&nbsp;Natasha Frilingou ,&nbsp;Clàudia Rodés-Bachs ,&nbsp;Stefanos Tsotras ,&nbsp;Angelos Potiriadis ,&nbsp;Georgios Xexakis ,&nbsp;Konstantinos Koasidis ,&nbsp;Haris Doukas ,&nbsp;Adam Hawkes ,&nbsp;Alexandros Nikas","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104216","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104216","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>COVID-19 reshaped global economic priorities at the time, with recovery packages offering unprecedented fiscal stimuli aimed at revitalising economies from the impacts of the pandemic and associated policy responses—including lockdowns. While these packages were quickly framed as an opportunity for aligning socioeconomic recovery spending with near- and longer-term climate goals, early assessments of their decarbonisation footprint were constrained by and/or oriented towards optimistic interpretations of the limited information available then. We examine the potential of recovery packages to bridge the medium- and long-term climate ambition gap towards meeting the Paris Agreement goals. To enable such a comprehensive assessment, we first develop an open-access database of global green recovery measures. Second, we explicitly translate these measures as inputs into three Integrated Assessment Models, to assess their implications for energy systems, emissions, and technology development globally. Third, we quantify the missed opportunity in global recovery spending in terms of accelerating the clean energy transition, by exploring a theoretical reallocation of funding from energy affordability measures towards green technologies. Our results suggest that, while the actual synthesis of global recovery funding may not be sufficient to boost climate efforts towards meeting the Paris climate goals with sustained effects post-2030, redirecting part of the funds to low-carbon technologies could accelerate decarbonisation and electrification trends in some sectors. Whether or not the global COVID-19 recovery portfolio is adjusted to better support transition goals, recovery funds alone cannot guarantee a comprehensive and effective transition; this requires complementary systemic reforms, targeted sectoral strategies, and international collaboration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 104216"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolution of rural settlements and its mechanism under the influence of A-class scenic spots in karst region: A case study of Guizhou Province in southwestern China","authors":"Yafeng Zou ,&nbsp;Pingping Du ,&nbsp;Yaqun Liu ,&nbsp;Zhengshan Luo ,&nbsp;Haiying Liu ,&nbsp;Feng Luo ,&nbsp;Chengfeng Yi ,&nbsp;Pinqi Wu ,&nbsp;Yan Song","doi":"10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103504","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.habitatint.2025.103504","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the accelerated rate of urbanization and industrialization, tourism has become an important player in rural development, especially in the karst region, where tourism resources are rich and traditional agriculture plays a dominant role. A-class scenic spots (ACSS) are a key factor in changing the socio-economic conditions of rural settlements (RSs). They play a crucial role in shaping the spatial structure of these settlements. However, few studies have explored the effect of ACSS on the evolution of RSs. To address this gap, the study selects Guizhou Province, a typical karst area in southwestern China, as a case study, and first constructs a theoretical framework of ACSS influence the spatial evolution of RSs. Based on the principle of distance decay, the study defines the “ACSS effect zones” using buffer zone analysis, and assesses the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of RSs in the “ACSS effect zones” through spatial visualization and the landscape metrics during the period 2010 to 2020. Spatial Durbin model and mediation effect model are then applied to analyze the direct effects, spatial spillover effects, and mediation effects of ACSS on the evolution of RSs. Finally, the study explores the evolution mechanism of RSs under the influence of ACSS by using the DPSIR model. The findings indicate that ACSS primarily influence the socio-economic conditions of RSs by improving infrastructure, providing jobs, and enhancing the human settlements environment, which in turn effect their spatial patterns. In the “ACSS effect zones”, RSs generally show an expansion trend during the period from 2010 to 2020. The overall fragmentation of RSs within the “ACSS effect zones” has decreased, with RSs becoming more centralized and exhibiting increasingly regular shapes. Infrastructure and human settlements environment significantly drive the expansion of both local and neighbouring RSs, while livelihood factors related to farm households inhibit the expansion of neighbouring RSs. This study provides valuable insights for formulating coordinated development policies between regional villages, helping to foster positive interactions between tourism and RSs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48376,"journal":{"name":"Habitat International","volume":"164 ","pages":"Article 103504"},"PeriodicalIF":6.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reducing administrative barriers: Evidence from China's county-to-district reform on export product quality","authors":"Qi Guo ,&nbsp;Jun Liu ,&nbsp;Shengjun Zhu ,&nbsp;Canfei He ,&nbsp;Yi Han","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106233","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106233","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High administrative barriers can increase the flow costs of factor resources, reduce the efficiency of resource allocation, and potentially impede China's transition towards a high-quality development stage. This paper uses China's county-to-district reform as a quasi-natural experiment to examine how reducing inter-regional administrative barriers influences firms' product quality. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2013, which encompasses Chinese industrial enterprises, customs, and patents, the study finds that the county-to-district reform can significantly improve the quality of export products of firms within the reform counties. Further exploration of the mechanisms reveals that, on the one hand, the reform forces firms to concentrate more on producing competitive, high-quality products due to the tightening of preferential policies and increasing financial constraints. On the other hand, the reform can increase firm agglomeration, which encourages firms to innovate through knowledge spillovers and fiercer competition, thus enhancing the quality of export products. In addition, the reform improves the administrative efficiency of local governments in handling firms' export activities and reduces transaction costs for firms, which improves their export product quality. The results on firm heterogeneity show that the effect of this reform on quality upgrading is particularly evident in non-state-owned enterprises, high-efficiency enterprises, and those in the less marketized regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 106233"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A SWOT analysis for the evolution of Brazil’s renewable energy sector","authors":"Gláucia Fernandes Vasconcelos ,&nbsp;Hérika Atala Castilho","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Brazil’s renewable energy sector is vital for energy security and sustainability but faces internal and external challenges. The analysis identifies and classifies factors according to established criteria related to their internal or external nature and their positive or negative influence on deployment, competitiveness, and scalability. A key novelty of our study is the integrated application of a SWOT analysis based on a systematic literature review to assess, simultaneously and comparatively, four strategically important renewable energy sources (namely, solar photovoltaic, onshore wind, offshore wind, and green hydrogen), within the context of Brazil’s energy transition. Ninety-four key factors were analyzed across social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Strengths include abundant resources and cost-competitive technologies, while weaknesses involve infrastructure constraints and regulatory uncertainty. Opportunities lie in technological advancements and international partnerships, but threats include market volatility and policy instability. The study generates interconnected strategic insights that go beyond single-technology analyses, providing actionable policy recommendations to address critical barriers, foster investment, and accelerate Brazil’s transition toward a resilient, diversified, and sustainable energy matrix.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 101997"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Determinants of financial performance and sustainability in Namibia's electricity distribution sector","authors":"Hilkka Soondaha Etuna Aimwata ,&nbsp;Tafirenyika Sunde","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.102008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the drivers of financial performance and financial sustainability in Namibia's electricity distribution sector using a mixed-methods case analysis of Central North Regional Electricity Distributor (CENORED). Guided by contingency theory, it integrates econometric modelling and qualitative insights to understand how operational capabilities and external constraints shape utility outcomes. Key predictors include metering quality, staff competence, institutional trust, and socioeconomic stressors such as poverty and unemployment. The study reveals that internal improvements are contingent on local realities. It recommends region-specific tariff reforms, improved governance, and targeted infrastructure investment to enhance utility resilience in fragile political economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 102008"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144596640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Integrating ecosystem service bundles and scenario predicting for win-win sustainable urban management: A case study of typical arid cities in China","authors":"Yang Gao ,&nbsp;Zhen Shen ,&nbsp;Tian Zhang ,&nbsp;Yongjie Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.106248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploring the ecological effects of urbanization from the perspective of ecosystem service (ES) relationships aids in developing precise spatial decisions for sustainable ecological management. The objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of urbanization on ES bundles (ESBs) and their internal dynamics through scenario simulations. Future land use changes were modelled under three scenarios, with a particular focus on characteristics of urban expansion. Spatial mapping and statistical analysis were employed to quantify changes in six ESs and their interrelationships. The results confirm that urban expansion is the most significant form of land use change in Hohhot, with a 20.57 % expansion under the natural scenario. Urban land distribution mainly follows an edge expansion pattern, shifting northward with decreasing spatial dispersion. Significant differences in ES losses were observed across scenarios. Nonetheless, all ecosystem combinations produce five types of ESBs, generally with similar structural characteristics. The area of urban expansion bundles under the food security scenario is only 2736.77 km². The conversion of cropland, forest, and grassland by urban expansion has transformed the ecological agriculture, forestry recreation, and comprehensive service bundles into other ESBs. Additionally, all-wins zone, weaknesses zone, ES-enhancing zone, and trade-off mitigating zone during urban expansion are delineated from a two-dimensional assessment of total value and relationships. Combining partition with ESB identification, this study considers both delivery characteristics to enhance ecological supply capacity and dyadic relationships to mitigate trade-offs, which develops more targeted ecosystem management and urban sustainability strategies for other regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"166 ","pages":"Article 106248"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144597305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}