超越选择:以价值为中心的思维评估撒哈拉以南非洲能源转型的资源选择

IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS
Olaoluwa Paul Aasa , Sarah Phoya , Rehema J. Monko , Innocent Musonda
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在能源转型规划的多准则决策分析中,备选方案的生成至关重要。使用循证方法调查资源替代方案的研究很少。在大多数现有研究中,判断都是基于容易获得的选项,而没有筛选它们提供问题最佳解决方案的潜力。本研究使用价值聚焦思维(VFT)来调查撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)能源转型规划的替代方案。本研究中的VFT结合了能源规划文献、访谈、专家调查和辅助数据的专题分析,以确定转化为决策目标的价值,用于评估潜在的替代方案。该研究确定了两个潜在选择应该实现的基本目标:提高能源生产系统的可持续性和弹性。此后,确定了调查替代方案的四个手段目标(MOs)。它们是足够的能力、2030年后资源的相关性、资源的清洁度和资源的可用性。使用机器学习算法、递归特征消除(RFE)和加权元排序来整合来自不同来源的数据,并对调查备选方案的目标进行排序。利用手段目标的重要性排序,六种替代能源(生物能源、水力、太阳能、风能、天然气和核能)有可能促进南非洲所有区域的能源转型,而地热仅适用于东非。这一结果表明,考虑这些资源的能源可持续性和弹性在SSA。这项研究与常规操作之外的其他决策情况有关,在这些情况下,替代思维可以很容易地应用,而无需重大关注。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Beyond choice: Value-focused thinking to evaluate resource alternatives for Sub-Saharan Africa's energy transition
Generating alternatives is crucial to multi-criteria decision analysis in energy transition planning. There is a paucity of studies investigating resource alternatives using an evidence-based approach. In most existing studies, judgements are made based on easily accessible options, without screening their potential to provide the optimal solution to the issue. This study used value-focused thinking (VFT) to investigate alternatives for energy transition planning in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). VFT in this study combined thematic analysis of energy planning literature, interviews, expert surveys, and secondary data to identify values translated to decision objectives used to evaluate potential alternatives. The study identified two fundamental objectives (FOs) that potential options should achieve: improving the sustainability and resilience of energy generation systems. Thereafter, four means objectives (MOs) for investigating alternatives were identified. They are adequate capacity, relevance of resource beyond 2030, cleanliness of resource, and availability of resources. Machine Learning algorithms, Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and Weighted Meta Ranking were used to integrate data from different sources and rank objectives for investigating alternatives. Using the importance ranking of means objectives, six alternatives (bioenergy, hydro, solar, wind, natural gas, and nuclear) have the potential to contribute to energy transition in all regions of SSA, while geothermal is applicable only in Eastern Africa. This outcome suggests considering these resources for energy sustainability and resilience in SSA. The study is relevant to other decision-making situations beyond regular operations, where alternative thinking can be easily applied without significant concerns.
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来源期刊
Utilities Policy
Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CiteScore
6.80
自引率
10.00%
发文量
94
审稿时长
66 days
期刊介绍: Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.
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