Beyond choice: Value-focused thinking to evaluate resource alternatives for Sub-Saharan Africa's energy transition

Abstract

Generating alternatives is crucial to multi-criteria decision analysis in energy transition planning. There is a paucity of studies investigating resource alternatives using an evidence-based approach. In most existing studies, judgements are made based on easily accessible options, without screening their potential to provide the optimal solution to the issue. This study used value-focused thinking (VFT) to investigate alternatives for energy transition planning in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). VFT in this study combined thematic analysis of energy planning literature, interviews, expert surveys, and secondary data to identify values translated to decision objectives used to evaluate potential alternatives. The study identified two fundamental objectives (FOs) that potential options should achieve: improving the sustainability and resilience of energy generation systems. Thereafter, four means objectives (MOs) for investigating alternatives were identified. They are adequate capacity, relevance of resource beyond 2030, cleanliness of resource, and availability of resources. Machine Learning algorithms, Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE), and Weighted Meta Ranking were used to integrate data from different sources and rank objectives for investigating alternatives. Using the importance ranking of means objectives, six alternatives (bioenergy, hydro, solar, wind, natural gas, and nuclear) have the potential to contribute to energy transition in all regions of SSA, while geothermal is applicable only in Eastern Africa. This outcome suggests considering these resources for energy sustainability and resilience in SSA. The study is relevant to other decision-making situations beyond regular operations, where alternative thinking can be easily applied without significant concerns.