{"title":"Automation, education, and population: Dynamic effects in an OLG growth and fertility model","authors":"Catarina Peralta , Pedro Mazeda Gil","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We address two main structural changes occurring in developed countries: the rise of automation and population ageing. Using an R&D-based growth model under an OLG framework, we consider education and fertility decisions, as well as automation in the production process, to explore the interplay between population ageing and automation. The results reveal dynamics that align with the US trends from 1970 to 2021. In particular, in response to increasing real wages, the model captures a decline in the fertility rate for low-skilled workers but an increase for high-skilled workers, consistent with observed data. We also analyze the model’s response to shocks related to automation and demographics (fertility vs. longevity), as well as policy instruments designed to reduce inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"234 ","pages":"Article 107002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Analyst forecasts worldwide: The impact of ESG information from diverse sources and regulatory mandates","authors":"Miao Yu, Ziyao San, Dan Shi, Albert Tsang","doi":"10.1111/irfi.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we investigate the informativeness of the non-financial environmental, social, and governance (ESG) information provided by various intermediaries including firms, the media, and ESG rating agencies, to financial analysts. By analyzing cross-sectional ESG data from various sources related to 56 countries, we find that ESG information plays a crucial role in shaping analyst forecasts. More importantly, we examine the interaction between internally and externally sourced information on affecting analysts. Our results suggest that while ESG information from the media attenuates the impact of firms' ESG disclosures on reducing analysts' forecast errors and dispersion, information from ESG rating agencies increases this impact. We also find that globally implemented mandatory ESG disclosure regulations significantly increase the effect of ESG information from all three sources on analysts. In countries with a stronger stakeholder orientation, financial analysts tend to derive greater relative benefits from ESG information obtained from various sources. Overall, the findings of this study support the conclusion that both externally and internally sourced ESG information is of significant value for financial analysts, and the implementation of mandatory ESG disclosure requirements in a country increases this significance.</p>","PeriodicalId":46664,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Finance","volume":"25 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-22DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112311
Manuel A. Gómez
{"title":"Sophistication drives higher growth than navïeté in the Ak model with hyperbolic discounting: An exhaustive numerical exploration","authors":"Manuel A. Gómez","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the <em>Ak</em> endogenous growth model with naïve and sophisticated agents under hyperbolic discounting. The utility function is isoelastic, with an intertemporal elasticity of substitution less than one. We derive a simple condition to verify that the effective rate of time preference is lower — and, consequently, the growth rate is higher — when agents are sophisticated rather than naïve. An extensive numerical analysis suggests that this condition holds across the entire feasible parameter space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112311"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is it advantageous to be first? Evidence from a TV comedy program","authors":"Real Arai , Ryosuke Okazawa","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using unique data from contests in a Japanese comedy TV show, we estimate the impact of position order on performance evaluations. By exploiting the fact that positions in the contest are randomly determined by lottery, we estimate the effect of position order and find that the first position is favorable in the contest. One interpretation of these results is that the first performance is more likely to receive a default evaluation, which may be advantageous in less competitive contests where there are many winners relative to the number of participants. We present evidence that is consistent with this interpretation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":"234 ","pages":"Article 107009"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bargaining-Equilibrium equivalence","authors":"Anuj Bhowmik , Sandipan Saha","doi":"10.1016/j.jmateco.2025.103117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmateco.2025.103117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper tries to answer one of the more nascent questions in the literature on general equilibrium theory by investigating the equivalence between the set of club equilibrium allocations and the bargaining set for a club economy. Clubs in this framework are treated in a parallel fashion to private goods as articles of choice. Each club comprises two components: (i) the profile of the club and (ii) the club project. We define a two-step veto mechanism and introduce the bargaining set in line with Aumann et al. (1961) for such an economy. In this paper, we establish that non-club-equilibrium allocations are those against which there exists a set of agents and a price vector at which they agree to trade amongst themselves rather than consume the non-club-equilibrium allocation assigned to them and all other agents (weakly) prefer the non-club-equilibrium allocation to trading at that particular price vector. In other words, there is a Walrasian objection to any non-club equilibrium allocation. We further show that Walrasian objections are also justified, which helps us to establish our equivalence between the set of equilibrium allocations and the bargaining set for an atomless club economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50145,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Mathematical Economics","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 103117"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Central banks’ financial stability orientation and bank risk-taking","authors":"Christy Dwita Mariana , Arisyi F. Raz","doi":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The existing literature provides inconclusive theoretical predictions regarding whether central banks’ monetary policy should address financial stability. We therefore empirically evaluate the effect of central banks’ financial stability orientation (“leaning against the wind”) on bank risk-taking. Our baseline results from cross-country, bank-level panel data suggest that higher central banks’ financial stability orientation significantly reduces bank risk-taking. Further investigation shows that monetary policy aimed at achieving financial stability complements macroprudential policy in reducing bank risk-taking, particularly during macroprudential policy tightening. These results offer novel insights into the effect of central bank’s monetary policy on bank stability and provide empirical evidence to prior theoretical works.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Stability","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 101409"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effects of CEO inside debt on corporate ESG behavior: role of major shareholders","authors":"Ruoyu Fan , Ziming Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.107462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.frl.2025.107462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the connection between CEOs’ inside debt holdings and corporate ESG performance. Using a sample of publicly listed Chinese firms from 2013 to 2023, we provide strong evidence that inside debt positively influences corporate ESG performance, though this effect is diminished by the presence of large shareholders. Our analysis also shows that CEO inside debt improves ESG performance by lowering debt financing costs and enhancing the quality of financial reporting. These findings remain consistent across various sensitivity and endogeneity tests. Overall, this research makes a meaningful contribution to the rapidly expanding literature on inside debt and ESG.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":12167,"journal":{"name":"Finance Research Letters","volume":"81 ","pages":"Article 107462"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Determinants of Student Loan Repayment Worry","authors":"Frank M. Magwegwe","doi":"10.1111/joca.70011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/joca.70011","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Millions of student loan borrowers worry about their loan repayments. Previous research has focused on student loan debt's impact on post-college outcomes, overlooking psychological aspects like repayment worry. Utilizing data from the 2021 National Financial Capability Survey (<i>n</i> = 2582), we developed and tested a theoretical model for understanding the determinants of student loan repayment worry (repayment worry) and the moderating effects of gender on the association between stressors (financial hardship and student loan delinquency) and repayment worry. Logistic regression showed that financial hardship and student loan delinquency are significant predictors of repayment worry. The coping resources we studied—financial self-efficacy, financial satisfaction, and household income—were significantly linked to lower repayment worry, except for financial capability. Notably, gender was a significant moderator of the financial hardship—repayment worry association, with males experiencing stronger effects than females, but did not moderate the student loan delinquency—repayment worry association. Implications for mitigating repayment worry are offered.</p>","PeriodicalId":47976,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Consumer Affairs","volume":"59 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/joca.70011","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143857037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal shrinkage of means in the Markowitz model","authors":"Roberto Ortiz , Mauricio Contreras , Cristhian Mellado","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper shows that portfolio optimization operates with low volatility in the portfolio weights and out-the-sample Sharpe ratio higher than the <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mi>n</mi></mrow></math></span> rule by shrinking the vector of averages to its grand mean and minimizing the mean square error of the portfolio weights. It is also shown that shrinking the vector of means to its grand mean and minimizing the mean square error of the vector of means can obtain out-of-sample Sharpe ratios that exceed the <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mi>n</mi></mrow></math></span> rule; however, this leads to high values of the portfolio weights’ volatilities. That is because minimizing the mean square error of the portfolio weights also optimizes the estimation error of the model’s decision variables. Therefore, this method can be part of the predict-and-optimize approach. In contrast, minimizing the mean square error of the vector of means involves incorporating the estimated values of the means to calculate the values of the decision variables (portfolio weights). That is, it minimizes the estimation error of the vector of means, not the decision variables. This method can be considered within the estimate-then-optimize approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"104 ","pages":"Article 104136"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Cautionary tales of fat tails","authors":"Chetan Dave , Scott J. Dressler , Samreen Malik","doi":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103679","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103679","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Distributions of GDP fluctuations that exhibit fat tails shed doubt on the suitability of Normal distributions in empirical and theoretical business-cycle analyses. We document: (i) fat tails in US output fluctuations are not a pervading characteristic of the entire post-war sample, and appear in subsamples exhibiting declines in cyclical and trend volatility (e.g., the Great Moderation); (ii) a DSGE environment featuring Normal shocks that match the declines in observed cyclical and trend volatility can explain almost all of the fat-tailed characteristics observed in the data, leaving little support for the role of rare, large shocks delivering fat-tailed distributions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103679"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}