Nikolos Gurney , John H. Miller , David V. Pynadath
{"title":"Exploring the choice landscape: Anchoring and framing effects on search behavior in complex choices","authors":"Nikolos Gurney , John H. Miller , David V. Pynadath","doi":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jocm.2025.100549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Complex choices entail consideration of multiple variables characterized by non-linear interactions. Prior research into such choices neglects two categories of major choice determinants: heuristics and biases. Our research integrates such behavioral determinants of decision making into the study of complex choices. We approach this challenge using a new experimental paradigm in which participants tune on-screen dials representing choice variables. Through their tuning efforts, participants can discover information about the choice space. Specifically, this paradigm allows us to document how anchoring and framing effects impact complex choice processes. We find that loss framing incites participants to expend more effort exploring choice variables before selecting an option. An aspirational anchor, on the other hand, correlates with decreased search effort. Additionally, when participants did not have an aspirational anchor, the data suggest they anchor on prior experience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46863,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Choice Modelling","volume":"55 ","pages":"Article 100549"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
CitiesPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2025.105894
Mahmud Tantoush, Ulysses Sengupta, Liangxiu Han
{"title":"Exploring city dynamics through tweets: A framework for capturing urban activities as complex spatiotemporal patterns","authors":"Mahmud Tantoush, Ulysses Sengupta, Liangxiu Han","doi":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.105894","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cities.2025.105894","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a novel framework for analysing urban activities as spatiotemporal patterns using Location-Based Social Media (LBSM) data. The methodology integrates the spatial, temporal, and semantic dimensions of geolocated tweets to investigate cities as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) and their relationship with urban form. By combining spatiotemporal clustering (ST-DBSCAN) and topic modelling (LDA), the framework uncovers dynamic activity patterns shaped by top-down mechanisms and bottom-up self-organizing behaviours. A custom tool and Graphical User Interface was developed to support data exploration and experimentation, enabling the contextual analysis of activity clusters. The framework was tested in Manchester City Centre as an exploratory case study, focusing on the impact of Covid-19 lockdown measures as a significant disturbance. The results reveal how urban characteristics, urban form, and social behaviours influence activity levels and patterns, demonstrating fluctuations that highlight different degrees of adaptability. By exploring cities as hybrid urban-digital spaces, this approach provides an alternative approach for understanding cities as CAS, linking space to place and for exploring adaptive behaviour. The paper concludes by reflecting on the framework, use of LBSM for researching cities, and outlining directions for future work of comparing cities and integrating alternative data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48405,"journal":{"name":"Cities","volume":"162 ","pages":"Article 105894"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Resources PolicyPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105568
Clement Sefa-Nyarko , Darren Sinclair , Joshua Matanzima , Jane Alver , Evan Hamman , Stephen Bartos , Roland Burke
{"title":"Relative trust in critical minerals governance for just transitions in Ghana and Australia","authors":"Clement Sefa-Nyarko , Darren Sinclair , Joshua Matanzima , Jane Alver , Evan Hamman , Stephen Bartos , Roland Burke","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the role of trust in the sustainable mining of critical minerals for a just transition across two complementary and contrasting cases, Ghana and Australia: the former being an emerging critical mineral economy and having a need to enforce social and environmental practices that depart from its history of non-critical minerals mining; the latter using domestic and international institutions to build trust in minerals governance at home and overseas. Based on an interdisciplinary exploratory and reflective methodology relying on four different data streams, this paper offers empirical research on how trust can be built and sustained in-country and through a combination of policies and practices, both on the part of mining companies and governments. We conceptualise trust in terms of confidence about a situation or entity based on experience and reasonable expectations. We found that in critical minerals mining communities, key predictors of trust are satisfaction, participation, social cohesion that is built on shared experiences of the past and present, and an adequate degree of social and economic independence for affected communities. The policy implications of the centrality of trust come at a crucial time when critiques of the role of the critical minerals industry in re-colonising and greenwashing are on the rise. This study finds government regulatory and policy settings can be used to promote trust in ways that are applicable to both developed and developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20970,"journal":{"name":"Resources Policy","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 105568"},"PeriodicalIF":10.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143734934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xiao Cao , Runsheng Gu , Xiaoqing Ji , Yuhang Li , Ruifeng Zhang
{"title":"The dual effect of upper-level government implicit guarantees on subordinate municipal corporate bond credit risk: An empirical analysis","authors":"Xiao Cao , Runsheng Gu , Xiaoqing Ji , Yuhang Li , Ruifeng Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102759","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102759","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of upper-level government implicit guarantees on the credit risk of city-level municipal corporate bonds in China by analyzing the dual effect of guarantee capability and willingness on municipal corporate bonds credit spread. The results indicate that the implicit guarantee capability and willingness significantly reduce credit spreads, with the latter exerting a more pronounced effect. Furthermore, regional economic development moderates the effects. In less-developed regions, the influence of implicit guarantees on bond pricing is more substantial due to heightened investor reliance on upper-level government support. The study incorporates the 2020 “Yongmei” default event as an exogenous shock to examine changes in market expectations. The findings reveal that after this event, upper-level government implicit guarantees' effect on municipal corporate bond pricing weakened, underscoring the evolving nature of investor confidence. This study advances the literature by highlighting the role of upper-level governments in municipal corporate bond pricing mechanisms and offering insights into the interplay between implicit guarantees, regional economic conditions, and investor expectations in the Chinese municipal corporate bond market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 102759"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22144
Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider
{"title":"A Quest for Knowledge","authors":"Christoph Carnehl, Johannes Schneider","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22144","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step-by-step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots—research on questions more novel than what is myopically optimal—can improve the evolution of knowledge. Moonshots induce research cycles in which subsequent researchers connect the moonshot to previous knowledge.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"623-659"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22144","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22028
Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver
{"title":"The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing","authors":"Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22028","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We study the effect of incarceration on wages, self-employment, and taxes and transfers in North Carolina and Ohio using two quasi-experimental research designs: discontinuities in sentencing guidelines and random assignment to judges. Across both states, incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity while individuals remain in prison. As a result, a year-long sentence decreases cumulative earnings over five years by 13%. Beyond five years, however, there is no evidence of lower employment, wage earnings, or self-employment in either state, as well as among defendants with no prior incarceration history. These results suggest that upstream factors, such as other types of criminal justice interactions or pre-existing labor market detachment, are more likely to be the cause of low earnings among the previously incarcerated, who we estimate would earn just $5000 per year on average if spared a prison sentence.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"503-538"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Huilian Fu , Jingyi Cai , Sinan Xia , Lianjie Zhou
{"title":"Regional financial regulatory intensity and corporate capital misallocation","authors":"Huilian Fu , Jingyi Cai , Sinan Xia , Lianjie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of an increasingly complex global financial environment, this study systematically analyzes the impact of regional financial regulatory intensity on corporate capital misallocation using macro data from 31 provinces and cities in China and micro data from listed companies between 2010 and 2022. The research finds that an increase in regional financial regulatory intensity significantly reduces the degree of corporate capital misallocation, with notable differences observed between enterprises with different ownership structures and those audited by the Big Four accounting firms, revealing the profound impact of financial regulation on corporate capital allocation. Further analysis indicates that financial regulation effectively alleviates corporate financing constraints, thereby promoting a more optimal allocation of capital. Additionally, the level of regional economic development serves as an important moderating variable, significantly moderating the impact of regional financial regulatory intensity on corporate capital misallocation, with this moderating effect exhibiting significant heterogeneity across different regions, providing a new perspective for understanding the regional differences in the effects of financial regulation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 104075"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20496
Kei Kawai, Takeaki Sunada
{"title":"Estimating Candidate Valence","authors":"Kei Kawai, Takeaki Sunada","doi":"10.3982/ECTA20496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20496","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage-point differences in the vote share, on average. Eliminating differences in the valence of challengers and incumbents results in an increase in the winning probability of a challenger from 6.5% to 12.1%. Our measure of candidate valence can be used to study various substantive questions of political economy. We illustrate its usefulness by studying the source of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"463-501"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2025-03-29DOI: 10.3982/ECTA22923
Robert M. Anderson, Haosui Duanmu
{"title":"Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Tax Meet Arrow–Debreu","authors":"Robert M. Anderson, Haosui Duanmu","doi":"10.3982/ECTA22923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA22923","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \t\t\t<p>We propose two general equilibrium models, quota equilibrium, and emission tax equilibrium. Government specifies quotas or taxes on emissions, and then refrains from further action. All results remain valid regardless of how government chooses its emissions target. Quota equilibrium exists; the allocation of emission property rights impacts the distribution of welfare. If the only externality arises from total net emissions, quota equilibrium is Pareto optimal among all feasible outcomes with the same total net emissions. For certain tax rates, emission tax equilibrium may not exist. Every quota equilibrium can be realized as an emission tax equilibrium and vice versa. However, different quota prices may arise in equilibrium from a single quota, and different emission levels may arise in equilibrium from a single tax rate. This leads to inequivalence between quota and emission tax equilibria.</p>\u0000 \t\t</div>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 2","pages":"357-393"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.3982/ECTA22923","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143726950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}