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Advance information and consumption insurance: Evidence and structural estimation
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103748
Marcelo Pedroni , Swapnil Singh , Christian A. Stoltenberg
{"title":"Advance information and consumption insurance: Evidence and structural estimation","authors":"Marcelo Pedroni ,&nbsp;Swapnil Singh ,&nbsp;Christian A. Stoltenberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103748","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103748","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show that households’ private information on future income can be identified from the correlation between consumption growth and future income growth <em>conditional</em> on current income growth. Employing PSID data, we find that this conditional correlation is positive and significant. We use this evidence to structurally estimate a standard incomplete markets model and discover that US households possess enough advance information to reduce their income forecast errors by 15%. This significantly affects the measurement of consumption insurance. With advance information, 25% more income shocks pass through to consumption on average, and more than twice as much for the 5% asset poorest. Without advance information, the marginal benefits of public insurance are underestimated by an order of magnitude for some of the poorest wealth quantiles.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103748"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous shareholder participation and corporate maturity mismatch: Evidence from China
IF 7.5 1区 经济学
International Review of Financial Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104221
Gaoya Song , Yu Wang
{"title":"Heterogeneous shareholder participation and corporate maturity mismatch: Evidence from China","authors":"Gaoya Song ,&nbsp;Yu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104221","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.irfa.2025.104221","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the relationship between heterogeneous shareholder participation and corporate maturity mismatch of investment and financing in China from 2009 to 2022. Using a hand-collected database, we find that heterogeneous shareholder participation can reduce corporate maturity mismatch. Mechanism tests show that the participation of non-state-owned shareholders and state-owned shareholders can produce “supervision incentive” and “resource support” effects, respectively. These effects alleviate type I and type II agency costs of state-owned enterprises and increase government subsidies for non-state-owned enterprises, thereby reducing maturity mismatch. Furthermore, the negative relationship between heterogeneous shareholder participation and corporate maturity mismatch is more pronounced among companies in high-tech industries and among firms with higher internal control quality. This paper expands the research in the field of equity structure, constructs a theoretical analysis framework for two-way mixed ownership reform, and provides new ideas and evidence for improving corporate maturity mismatch.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 104221"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Digital inclusive finance and common prosperity: The threshold effect based on rural revitalization
IF 4.8 2区 经济学
International Review of Economics & Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104096
Jianying Wang, Zhihui Tan, Yuting Zuo
{"title":"Digital inclusive finance and common prosperity: The threshold effect based on rural revitalization","authors":"Jianying Wang,&nbsp;Zhihui Tan,&nbsp;Yuting Zuo","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research, which analyzed data from 31 provinces in China between 2011 and 2022, investigates the interplay between digital inclusive finance, shared prosperity, and the threshold effect of rural rejuvenation. The research results show that: digital inclusive finance can promote regional common prosperity; the level of regional economic development plays a moderating role in the process of digital inclusive finance promoting regional common prosperity; there is heterogeneity in the impact of digital inclusive finance on common prosperity across different regions; and the promotion effect of digital inclusive finance on common prosperity is influenced by the threshold effect of rural revitalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"100 ","pages":"Article 104096"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Migrant remittances and real exchange rate dynamics in developing countries: Evidence of a U-shaped relationship
IF 4.2 2区 经济学
Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107085
Oussama Ben Atta , Mazhar Yasin Mughal , Serge Rey
{"title":"Migrant remittances and real exchange rate dynamics in developing countries: Evidence of a U-shaped relationship","authors":"Oussama Ben Atta ,&nbsp;Mazhar Yasin Mughal ,&nbsp;Serge Rey","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we revisit the relationship between workers’ remittances and the real effective exchange rate. Using the NATREX equilibrium exchange rate framework for a small open economy, we establish the conditions for a non-linear relationship between remittances and the real exchange rate. Econometric estimates based on panel models with a threshold effect on a sample of 40 countries over the period 1980–2019 confirm a non-linear U-shaped relationship. For countries where remittances account for less than five percent of GDP, an increase in remittances results in a real depreciation of the exchange rate. This is reflected in improvement in external competitiveness, which can be attributed to the dominant supply effect stemming from capital accumulation. Conversely, for countries above this threshold, an increase in remittances leads to a real appreciation of the exchange rate, driven by rising domestic prices linked to a dominant demand effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 107085"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of city diplomacy on foreign direct investment: Evidence from international sister city diplomacy agreements
IF 4.8 2区 经济学
International Review of Economics & Finance Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104076
Bei He, Mingyue Tang, Aodi Wei
{"title":"The impact of city diplomacy on foreign direct investment: Evidence from international sister city diplomacy agreements","authors":"Bei He,&nbsp;Mingyue Tang,&nbsp;Aodi Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International sister cities, as important channels for Chinese cities to engage in foreign exchanges, play a crucial role in national diplomacy. We examine the role of international sister city diplomacy in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) based on panel data from 286 cities in China from 2010 to 2022. The results show that both the depth and breadth of international sister city development significantly promote FDI. This effect is more pronounced in large cities, cities with a higher degree of marketization, and cities with lower economic policy uncertainty. Mechanism analysis indicates that sister city diplomacy attracts foreign investment through increasing the output value of foreign-invested enterprises and promoting cultural exchange.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 104076"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ranking public expenditure programs
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112290
Mathilde Almlund , Torben M. Andersen
{"title":"Ranking public expenditure programs","authors":"Mathilde Almlund ,&nbsp;Torben M. Andersen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The marginal value of public funds (MVPF) has been proposed as a criterion for choosing between social programs, but its appropriateness has been debated. In this paper, we show the MVPF is indeed providing the correct ranking when deciding on marginal increases in <em>net</em> spending, but it is not a valid criterion for selecting policies on which to increase marginal <em>up front</em> spending. In this case, the correct criterion is the Marginal Net Social Benefit (MNSB). This distinction is crucial for policymakers who operate under a fixed up front budget. We demonstrate that previous arguments in favor of the opposite conclusion rely on implicit assumptions of constant returns to scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112290"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike
IF 4.3 2区 经济学
Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103749
Piergiorgio Alessandri, Andrea Gazzani
{"title":"Natural gas and the macroeconomy: Not all energy shocks are alike","authors":"Piergiorgio Alessandri,&nbsp;Andrea Gazzani","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103749","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103749","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do shocks to the supply of natural gas affect output and inflation? To answer this question, we construct an instrument using daily news on the European gas market and employ it within a VAR model of the euro area. We find that negative supply shocks have sizable stagflationary effects and accounted for nearly 50 percent of the increase in core prices observed between 2021 and 2023. The propagation to core prices appears to be larger compared to oil shocks, suggesting that the structural differences between the two markets matter from an aggregate perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103749"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143783476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political parties’ ideological bias and convergence in economic outcome
IF 2.3 3区 经济学
European Journal of Political Economy Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102669
Zeeshan Hashim , Jan Fidrmuc , Sugata Ghosh
{"title":"Political parties’ ideological bias and convergence in economic outcome","authors":"Zeeshan Hashim ,&nbsp;Jan Fidrmuc ,&nbsp;Sugata Ghosh","doi":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2025.102669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In democracies, policies are jointly shaped by voters' preferences and politicians' (or parties’) ideological biases. We explore the relative importance of the latter on some key economic outcomes – growth rate, inflation and inequality – in a broad sample of 71 democracies from 1995 to 2019. We find evidence that both left-wing and right-wing governments deliver convergent outcomes as regards growth, inflation and inequality. The same applies to the policy outcome of economic freedom. This indicates that consolidated democracies maintain continuity in economic policies, and a change in government from one political ideology to another with a different ideology does not significantly alter economic policy outcomes. However, we find <em>divergence</em> in hybrid regimes; inequality and economic freedom are reduced under leftist governments, and economic freedom is enhanced by rightist governments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51439,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Political Economy","volume":"87 ","pages":"Article 102669"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143768069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial spillover effects of gender inequality on the path to energy transition and environmental sustainability in Asia
IF 3.8 3区 经济学
Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101935
Sevda Kuşkaya , Erhan Muğaloğlu , Ashar Awan , Kamran Khan , Mohammed Alnour , Cosimo Magazzino , Mohammad Enamul Hoque , Faik Bilgili
{"title":"Spatial spillover effects of gender inequality on the path to energy transition and environmental sustainability in Asia","authors":"Sevda Kuşkaya ,&nbsp;Erhan Muğaloğlu ,&nbsp;Ashar Awan ,&nbsp;Kamran Khan ,&nbsp;Mohammed Alnour ,&nbsp;Cosimo Magazzino ,&nbsp;Mohammad Enamul Hoque ,&nbsp;Faik Bilgili","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2025.101935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the spatial spillover effects of gender inequality on energy transition and environmental sustainability in selected Asian countries by applying three spatial panel models: SAR, SEM, and SDM. The two major findings are that (1) gender inequality enhances access to clean fuels, whereas gender inequality and gender unemployment in the neighboring countries hindered access to clean energy in the home country, and (2) female labor force participation both in the home country and in the neighboring countries enhanced access to clean energy. The findings underscore the need for coordinated regional efforts to tackle gender inequality and drive environmental sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 101935"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial inclusion and bank stability: Evidence from the Indian banking system
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112303
Nikhil Srivastava , Praveen Kumar Mohanty , Nidhi Kesari
{"title":"Financial inclusion and bank stability: Evidence from the Indian banking system","authors":"Nikhil Srivastava ,&nbsp;Praveen Kumar Mohanty ,&nbsp;Nidhi Kesari","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper focuses on the effects of financial inclusion on bank stability in the Indian context, using the new Indian government financial inclusion policy, <em>Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY),</em> as a quasi-experiment. We document a direct relationship between inclusion and bank stability. These results remain robust to using alternative measures of financial inclusion (rural, urban, and combined beneficiaries), and across different dimensions of bank stability, such as <em>Z-score, CASA</em>, and provision for non-performing assets. Our findings suggest that financial inclusion has an especially positive effect on bank stability when focused on rural areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112303"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143737830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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