{"title":"Using Intentions to Predict Fertility.","authors":"Johannes Norling","doi":"10.1017/dem.2020.32","DOIUrl":"10.1017/dem.2020.32","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>On average, childless women observed by the Panel Study of Income Dynamics report that they intend to have more children than they actual have. A collection of intentions that record only whether respondents intend to have another child can more accurately predict the number of children they have. Errors in the formation of intentions are not required to explain this finding. Rather, if intentions record a survey respondent's most likely predicted number of children, then the average of these intentions does not necessarily equal average actual fertility, even if intentions are formed using rational expectations.</p>","PeriodicalId":43286,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Demographic Economics","volume":"88 3","pages":"257-282"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9432464/pdf/nihms-1718578.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10487843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Water, Walls, and Bicycles: Wealth Index Composition Using Census Microdata.","authors":"Rodrigo Lovaton Davila, Aine Seitz McCarthy, Dorothy Gondwe, Phatta Kirdruang, Uttam Sharma","doi":"10.1017/dem.2020.27","DOIUrl":"10.1017/dem.2020.27","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this study, we produce a valid and consistent variable for socioeconomic status at the household level with census microdata from ten developing countries available from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series - International (IPUMS-I), the world's largest census database. We use principal components analysis to compute a wealth index based on asset ownership, utilities, and dwelling characteristics. We validate the index by verifying socioeconomic gradients on school enrollment and educational attainment. Given that the availability of socioeconomic indicators varies considerably across samples of census microdata, we implement a stepwise elimination procedure on the wealth index to identify the conditions that produce an internally consistent index. Using the results of the stepwise methodology, we propose which indicators are most important in measuring household socioeconomic status. The development of the asset index for such a large archive of international census microdata is a very useful public resource for researchers.</p>","PeriodicalId":43286,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Demographic Economics","volume":"88 1","pages":"79-120"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/dem.2020.27","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10821370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}