{"title":"Dynamic incentive contracts with controllable risk","authors":"Yuqian Zhang , Zhaojun Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105160","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105160","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We address a dynamic contracting model in which a principal hires an agent to manage a project. The key new ingredient is that either the principal or the agent can dynamically control the project risk. Increasing the risk has three effects: (i) a positive drift effect due to the risk premium, (ii) a negative drift effect that captures inefficiencies arising from risk-shifting, and (iii) a mechanical mean-preserving spread effect. We show that if the principal instead of agent controls the risk, we get a higher contract efficiency. The higher the agent's promised value, the more pronounced the advantage. The non-contractibility of risk induces the agent's risk-taking behavior. The contract efficiency in the exogenous no-savings environment is higher than that in the endogenous one due to additional costs of no-savings incentives. These findings contribute to the allocation of control rights, bringing forth a corporate governance perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"178 ","pages":"Article 105160"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144767175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Martina Danielova Zaharieva, Audronė Virbickaitė, André Portela Santos
{"title":"Intraday volatility transmission in global energy markets: A Bayesian nonparametric approach","authors":"Martina Danielova Zaharieva, Audronė Virbickaitė, André Portela Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100496","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100496","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We specify a volatility transmission model for international energy markets that divides a global trading day into three distinct trading zones, allowing us to investigate the <em>heat wave</em> and <em>meteor shower</em> hypotheses proposed in Engle et al. (1990). The resulting multivariate GARCH model is specified using a highly flexible semiparametric Bayesian framework with non-Gaussian innovations, designed to deal with asymmetry and heavy tails found in financial time series. The empirical results for the oil and natural gas futures markets suggest that volatility transmission is a combination of effects that are both related to volatility in the same region and volatility in the region immediately preceding it. Furthermore, accounting for the fat-tailed behavior not only dramatically improves the in-sample fit, but also helps to uncover additional cross-market (or cross-country) effects and gives us further insights into the exact channels through which energy shocks are transmitted throughout the world. Finally, accounting for both heat wave and meteor shower effects within a non-Gaussian framework leads to substantial improvements in the accuracy of Value-at-Risk estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":45111,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Commodity Markets","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100496"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tian Ding , Wenjing Song , Jiangze Bian , Ge Zhang
{"title":"Southbound capital flows and stock return predictability","authors":"Tian Ding , Wenjing Song , Jiangze Bian , Ge Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102887","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102887","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of southbound cross-border capital flows on stock returns in the Hong Kong stock market. The study finds that southbound capital flows can significantly predict short-term returns on Hong Kong stocks. After adjusting for the Fama-French five-factor model, a weekly rebalancing long-short portfolio can achieve an annualized return of up to 25.84 %. This result remains robust in both predictive panel regression and Fama-MacBeth regression. Further mechanism tests indicate that the predictive power of southbound capital flows is primarily driven by demand shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48074,"journal":{"name":"Pacific-Basin Finance Journal","volume":"93 ","pages":"Article 102887"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144766932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mianhao Hu , Yiling Li , Wenqi Xiong , Juhong Yuan
{"title":"Can digital inclusive finance suppress energy ecological footprint? moderated mediation effect test based on technological innovation","authors":"Mianhao Hu , Yiling Li , Wenqi Xiong , Juhong Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.iref.2025.104491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Within the context of energy conservation, emission reduction, and the development of digital inclusion financial (DIF), this study explores the relationship between DIF and the energy ecological footprint (EEF). Using panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning 2011 to 2021, it employs a moderated mediation effect model to empirically analyze the mechanisms through which DIF affects the EEF. The findings reveal that DIF can mitigate the growth of the EEF. Specifically, it achieves this by promoting industrial structure upgrading, which in turn curbs EEF expansion. Furthermore, technological innovation enhances the positive impact of DIF on industrial structure upgrading, thereby amplifying the suppressive effect of industrial transformation on the EEF. Additional analysis highlights that regional difference—such as government digital governance capacity, environmental and financial regulations, digital infrastructure development, and digital usage—significantly influence the extent to which DIF inhibits EEF growth. The study also finds that DIF not only fosters economic inclusiveness but also demonstrates an energy ecological inclusiveness effect. Its marginal utility is particularly pronounced in regions with lower economic development and higher EEF. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the theoretical linkage between DIF and the EEF. It also provides valuable references and decision-making insights for leveraging DIF to enhance energy efficiency and support the achievement of the “dual-carbon” goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14444,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Economics & Finance","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 104491"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144738940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.3982/ECTA19576
Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis
{"title":"You Can Lead a Horse to Water: Spatial Learning and Path Dependence in Consumer Search","authors":"Charles Hodgson, Gregory Lewis","doi":"10.3982/ECTA19576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA19576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We develop and estimate a model of consumer search with spatial learning. Consumers make inferences from previously searched objects to unsearched objects that are nearby in attribute space, generating path dependence in search sequences. The estimated model rationalizes patterns in data on online consumer search paths: search tends to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. Eliminating spatial learning reduces consumer welfare by 12%: cross-product inferences allow consumers to locate better products in a shorter time. Spatial learning has important implications for product recommendations on retail platforms. We show that consumer welfare can be reduced by unrepresentative product recommendations and that consumer-optimal product recommendations depend on both consumer learning and competition between platforms.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1299-1332"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
EconometricaPub Date : 2025-07-30DOI: 10.3982/ECTA23293
Stefan Wager
{"title":"A Comment on: “Fisher–Schultz Lecture: Generic Machine Learning Inference on Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments, With an Application to Immunization in India” by Victor Chernozhukov, Mert Demirer, Esther Duflo, and Iván Fernández-Val","authors":"Stefan Wager","doi":"10.3982/ECTA23293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA23293","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use the martingale construction of Luedtke and van der Laan (2016) to develop tests for the presence of treatment heterogeneity. The resulting sequential validation approach can be instantiated using various validation metrics, such as BLPs, GATES, QINI curves, etc., and provides an alternative to cross-validation-like cross-fold application of these metrics. This note was prepared as a comment on the Fisher–Schultz paper by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernández-Val, forthcoming in Econometrica.</p>","PeriodicalId":50556,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica","volume":"93 4","pages":"1171-1176"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144740471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yaojun Zhang , Lanpeng Ji , Georgios Aivaliotis , Charles C. Taylor
{"title":"Bayesian CART models for aggregate claim modeling","authors":"Yaojun Zhang , Lanpeng Ji , Georgios Aivaliotis , Charles C. Taylor","doi":"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper proposes three types of Bayesian CART (or BCART) models for aggregate claim amount, namely, frequency-severity models, sequential models and joint models. We propose a general framework for BCART models applicable to data with multivariate responses, which is particularly useful for the joint BCART models with a bivariate response: the number of claims and the aggregate claim amount. To facilitate frequency-severity modeling, we investigate BCART models for the right-skewed and heavy-tailed claim severity data using various distributions. We discover that the Weibull distribution is superior to gamma and lognormal distributions, due to its ability to capture different tail characteristics in tree models. Additionally, we find that sequential BCART models and joint BCART models, which can incorporate more complex dependence between the number of claims and severity, are beneficial and thus preferable to the frequency-severity BCART models in which independence is commonly assumed. The effectiveness of these models' performance is illustrated by carefully designed simulations and real insurance data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54974,"journal":{"name":"Insurance Mathematics & Economics","volume":"125 ","pages":"Article 103136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144749841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Raphael Deberdt , Nicole M. Smith , Jordan L. Calderon , Scott K. McCall
{"title":"Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations","authors":"Raphael Deberdt , Nicole M. Smith , Jordan L. Calderon , Scott K. McCall","doi":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104252","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.erss.2025.104252","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Critical minerals lists have flourished in the past decade, in particular linked to the importance of critical minerals for low-carbon transitions. We identified 27 critical minerals or materials lists across 15 countries and the European Union (EU). These lists are designed to attract public and private attention and investments to secure both domestic and foreign supplies. This review article fills a gap in the existing literature by analyzing the ways in which these lists are defined and utilized by countries engaged in a mineral rush. We focus our attention on three categories of minerals – battery minerals, platinum-group metals (PGMs), and rare earth elements (REEs) that are particularly important to energy transitions. We situate this research in the broader legal and administrative developments that have driven critical minerals policies in the past decade. We provide an in-depth analysis of the commonalities and variations in the raw materials included in these lists, and identify six core limitations of critical minerals lists: (1) unclear links between criticality assessments and mineral prioritization (2) failure to account for the full mineral value-chain; (3) limited strategic alignment between allied nations; (4) limited flexibility in dynamic environments (5) limited consideration for recycling and by-product sourcing; and (6) reliance on incomplete reserve and resource data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48384,"journal":{"name":"Energy Research & Social Science","volume":"127 ","pages":"Article 104252"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}