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Too Much Financial Integration: The Perils of Open Capital Accounts in Low and Middle Income Countries 过度的金融一体化：中低收入国家开放资本账户的风险
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70071
Jayati Ghosh
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引用次数: 0
Finance and Growth: What Shifts the Relationship? 金融与增长：是什么改变了两者的关系？
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70064
Stephen G. Cecchetti, Enisse Kharroubi
{"title":"Finance and Growth: What Shifts the Relationship?","authors":"Stephen G. Cecchetti,&nbsp;Enisse Kharroubi","doi":"10.1111/manc.70064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.70064","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We revisit the inverted-U relationship between finance and growth using data for 40 countries from 1969 to 2019. Our estimates of the tipping point—the level of credit-to-GDP above which additional credit becomes a drag on growth—are substantially lower than those we reported in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Why is this? Our analysis points to global factors as the most important determinant of the turning point. That is, we show that common movements in GDP and credit across countries significantly lower the estimated turning point. We go on to investigate the impact of banking-system concentration, which raises the turning point but steepens the costs of exceeding it; bank credit-to-deposit ratios, which tend to lower it; and, most strikingly, the stock market capitalisation, where a high level can cause the inverted-U to disappear entirely, so that additional bank credit is associated with lower growth at all levels.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"94 6","pages":"629-641"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too Much Finance: Evidence of Pure Negative Effects on Growth 过度融资：对经济增长纯粹负面影响的证据
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-07-09 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70058
Alex Cobham, David Cobham, Miroslav Palanský
{"title":"Too Much Finance: Evidence of Pure Negative Effects on Growth","authors":"Alex Cobham,&nbsp;David Cobham,&nbsp;Miroslav Palanský","doi":"10.1111/manc.70058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.70058","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This paper takes the ‘Too much finance’ (TMF) literature further by focussing on data for value added in financial services. This broad measure has been much less used in the literature than total private or bank credit, on the one hand, or stock market capitalisation or activity, on the other. We investigate whether those data are consistent with the standard TMF result, and we consider various alternative measures of financial activity including domestic production, domestic consumption and exports and imports. We also use two stratifications of the data, OECD versus non-OECD and the World Bank's income categories, to see if the relevant relationships differ clearly between different groups, and examine whether results are affected by curtailing the sample to exclude the global financial crisis that began in 2008. We confirm the core TMF result for private credit, including for many stratified groups and regardless of the inclusion of the crisis and later years. However, the findings for value added of the financial sector are less consistent, with more support for a purely negative, linear association with growth. This finding is also echoed for some measures of the international trade in financial services. While the provision of private credit appears to strengthen the economy until a tipping point is reached, the expansion of much other financial sector activity may simply be detrimental. We suggest the need for further research to develop understanding of the impact of growth in different elements of the financial sector, in order to support granular policy prioritisation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"94 6","pages":"688-703"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can There Be Too Much Finance? A Complex Answer to a Simple Question 金融会不会太多？一个简单问题的复杂答案
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70061
Thorsten Beck
{"title":"Can There Be Too Much Finance? A Complex Answer to a Simple Question","authors":"Thorsten Beck","doi":"10.1111/manc.70061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.70061","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper provides a critical review of the Too Much Finance literature, both in its academic contribution and as response to the earlier finance and growth literature. We describe the academic origins and development of the finance and growth literature and discuss pitfalls with the commonly used indicators of financial development. We explore how the finance and growth research findings can be translated into policy recommendations including with respect to the trade-off between growth and stability. Finally, we argue that the question of “can there be too much finance” contains actually three questions: can there be too much credit, can there be too large a financial sector, and can there be too much financial development.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"94 6","pages":"592-601"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.70061","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global waste trade: Comparative advantage, the pollution haven effect, and externality costs 全球废弃物贸易：比较优势、污染避风港效应和外部性成本
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70086
Prakrati Thakur
{"title":"Global waste trade: Comparative advantage, the pollution haven effect, and externality costs","authors":"Prakrati Thakur","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70086","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I quantify how comparative advantage and the pollution haven effect (PHE) shape international waste flows and infer the associated externality costs by constructing a Ricardian model with generation, trade, and use as a production input of waste. Combining waste flow, tariff, and environmental regulation data with a meteorological pollution dispersion instrument, I estimate that a 1% increase in trade costs reduces various waste flows by 7%–29.3%. Stricter environmental regulation in origin relative to the destination lowers trade costs for certain waste by 7%–77.7%. Per-unit externality costs increase but gains from waste trade decrease with income, with PHE contributing substantially.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"64 4","pages":"1303-1326"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149125834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving tax revenues in the emerging markets: A Laffer curve analysis 新兴市场税收的改善：拉弗曲线分析
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-06-13 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70069
Sargam Gupta, Snigdha Kalra
{"title":"Improving tax revenues in the emerging markets: A Laffer curve analysis","authors":"Sargam Gupta,&nbsp;Snigdha Kalra","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70069","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) can significantly improve their tax-to-GDP ratios by expanding the tax base and strengthening institutional quality. This paper develops a neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous agents- Ricardian and non-Ricardian households-to examine fiscal capacity using a Laffer curve framework. It highlights two key constraints in EMDEs: a large untaxed population-including exempt and informally employed individuals, and institutional weakness reflected in tax evasion, poor audits, and weak compliance norms. Non-Ricardians are untaxed; Ricardians may evade or pay taxes. Results show that raising tax rates alone is ineffective; broader compliance, limited exemptions, and institutional reforms are essential.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"64 4","pages":"1458-1492"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149125787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too Much Finance Redux 太多的财务重组
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70057
Jean-Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes, Ugo Panizza
{"title":"Too Much Finance Redux","authors":"Jean-Louis Arcand,&nbsp;Enrico Berkes,&nbsp;Ugo Panizza","doi":"10.1111/manc.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.70057","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper revisits the “too much finance” hypothesis by reassessing the relationship between financial depth and economic growth using an expanded dataset (1960–2019) and a systematic estimation strategy that avoids reliance on any single, potentially arbitrary sample window. We estimate both cross-sectional and panel models for all feasible starting periods and focus on transparent specifications. We find a robust inverted-U relationship between private credit and growth: financial depth is growth-enhancing at low and moderate levels but exhibits diminishing returns and eventually becomes negative at high levels. The turning point generally lies between 70 and 120 percent of GDP, almost always below the 90th percentile of the global distribution of credit to the private sector.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"94 6","pages":"614-628"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.70057","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When do proxy advisors improve corporate decisions? 代理顾问何时能改善公司决策？
IF 1.5 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70070
Berno Buechel, Lydia Mechtenberg, Alexander F. Wagner
{"title":"When do proxy advisors improve corporate decisions?","authors":"Berno Buechel,&nbsp;Lydia Mechtenberg,&nbsp;Alexander F. Wagner","doi":"10.1111/ecin.70070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.70070","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies the impact of proxy advisors on shareholder decision-making. We posit two assumptions: (i) the board is at least as well informed as any individual shareholder; (ii) shareholders can condition their information acquisition on the proxy advisor's (PA) recommendation. If only (i) holds, shareholders optimally rubber-stamp the board's proposal and do not invest in private research. If (ii) additionally holds, disagreement between the board and the PA can trigger private information acquisition by some shareholders. We identify the conditions under which this mechanism restores value-of-information logic and improves the informational quality of shareholder voting outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":"64 4","pages":"1183-1208"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.70070","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149125835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too Much Finance! 太多的金融！
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70072
David Cobham, Alex Cobham
{"title":"Too Much Finance!","authors":"David Cobham,&nbsp;Alex Cobham","doi":"10.1111/manc.70072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.70072","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"94 6","pages":"589-591"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149145699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too Much Finance: Mechanisms That Harm Growth and Policy Implications 过度融资：损害增长的机制和政策影响
IF 0.9 4区 经济学
Manchester School Pub Date : 2026-10-09 Epub Date: 2026-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/manc.70060
Arup Daripa, Sandeep Kapur, Marco Pelliccia
{"title":"Too Much Finance: Mechanisms That Harm Growth and Policy Implications","authors":"Arup Daripa,&nbsp;Sandeep Kapur,&nbsp;Marco Pelliccia","doi":"10.1111/manc.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The mechanisms for the financial sector to harm growth arise through short-termism of financial markets. This leads to the misallocation of resources in the private sector, leading to financial crises and damage to growth. However, harm to growth comes not only from financial crises, but also from the failure of short-termist financial markets to facilitate public investment in long-term, growth-enhancing projects. While the literature has discussed the first channel extensively, it is largely silent on the second one. Our contribution is to develop a formal model to clarify how investment reticence of governments can arise from the fear of financial crises. A central conclusion is that in the presence of a large financial sector, the fear of market turmoil can damage growth even in the absence of an actual crisis episode. We discuss policy responses to both mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":47546,"journal":{"name":"Manchester School","volume":"94 6","pages":"642-661"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/manc.70060","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149146634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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