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Sticky capital controls 粘性资本管制
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104104
Miguel Acosta-Henao , Laura Alfaro , Andrés Fernández
{"title":"Sticky capital controls","authors":"Miguel Acosta-Henao ,&nbsp;Laura Alfaro ,&nbsp;Andrés Fernández","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With a new quarterly dataset on the intensive margin of priced-based capital controls, complemented with extensive measures (restrictions, prohibitions, and authorizations) constructed using text analysis, we document that capital controls are “sticky”. Changes to price-based controls do not occur frequently; and when they do, they display high autocorrelation. Extensive measures also show considerable persistence. We then augment a model of capital controls relying on pecuniary externalities with an <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>S</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>s</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> cost of implementing such policies, and illustrate how this friction goes a long way toward bringing the model closer to the data. When the extended model is calibrated to the countries in the new dataset, we find that the size of these costs is large, substantially reducing the welfare-enhancing effects of capital controls in the frictionless Ramsey benchmark without <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>S</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>s</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> costs. This calls for a richer set of policy constraints when modeling the optimal use of capital controls.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104104"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time 不同国家和不同时期的人口结构和实际利率
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127
Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio
{"title":"Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time","authors":"Carlos Carvalho ,&nbsp;Andrea Ferrero ,&nbsp;Felipe Mazin ,&nbsp;Fernanda Nechio","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104127"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring foreign exposure 测量外来接触
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126
Jean Imbs , Laurent Pauwels
{"title":"Measuring foreign exposure","authors":"Jean Imbs ,&nbsp;Laurent Pauwels","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce a model-based approximation for assessing foreign exposure via direct and indirect trade. In the model, exposure can be approximated by the fraction of production sold abroad, either directly or indirectly. Simulations show that this ratio accurately reflects the responses of value added to foreign supply shocks across most of the parameter space. It also effectively captures the responses of value added to foreign demand or trade shocks for a more restricted range of parameters. Conversely, other well-known metrics of foreign exposure do not perform well in the simulations. Data show that our measure of foreign exposure correlates significantly with various measures of economic activity, even in service sectors generally thought to be insulated from foreign influences. In contrast, these correlations are either insignificant or incorrectly signed when alternative measures of foreign exposure are used.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104126"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asset price changes, external wealth and global welfare 资产价格变动、外部财富与全球福利
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104122
Timothy Meyer
{"title":"Asset price changes, external wealth and global welfare","authors":"Timothy Meyer","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth changes, most countries so far did not benefit much in welfare terms. This is because they did not rebalance their portfolios and realize their gains. In contrast, direct welfare effects from the dollar appreciation on import and export prices are an order of magnitude larger.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104122"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations 纸老虎吗?中国科学与引文中的本土偏见
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123
Shumin Qiu , Claudia Steinwender , Pierre Azoulay
{"title":"Paper tiger? Chinese science and home bias in citations","authors":"Shumin Qiu ,&nbsp;Claudia Steinwender ,&nbsp;Pierre Azoulay","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104123","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China’s trade in goods and services, where China does not stand out from most industrialized countries. After adjusting citation counts for home bias, we demonstrate that China’s apparent rise in citation rankings is overstated. Our adjusted ranking places China fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Germany, tempering the perception of China’s scientific dominance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104123"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144518013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism 当地的全球监管机构：贸易、采购和社会行动主义的国际化
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116
Pamina Koenig , Sebastian Krautheim , Claudius Löhnert , Thierry Verdier
{"title":"Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism","authors":"Pamina Koenig ,&nbsp;Sebastian Krautheim ,&nbsp;Claudius Löhnert ,&nbsp;Thierry Verdier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a <em>triadic</em> gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104116"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fear of appreciation and current account adjustment 担心升值和经常账户调整
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121
Paul R. Bergin , Kyunghun Kim , Ju H. Pyun
{"title":"Fear of appreciation and current account adjustment","authors":"Paul R. Bergin ,&nbsp;Kyunghun Kim ,&nbsp;Ju H. Pyun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104121","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper finds that one-sided nominal exchange rate intervention in the form of “fear of appreciation” slows adjustment of current account surpluses, providing novel support for Friedman's claims of faster adjustment under flexible exchange rates. We find evidence that countries classified as more flexible have faster convergence than peggers for current account deficits, but not so for surpluses. This asymmetry is associated with a one-sided muting of exchange rate appreciations among some countries. We then develop a multi-country monetary model augmented with a “fear of appreciation” policy rule governing foreign exchange intervention, solved as an occasionally binding constraint. The model demonstrates a mechanism by which government capital flows supporting exchange rate regimes can impinge on international financial adjustment. The model accounts for substantial asymmetries in the speed of current account adjustment, based on exchange rate regime and current account sign.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104121"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144338777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond the spike at zero: Understanding nominal wage rigidity through empirical and model-based approaches 超越零峰值：通过实证和基于模型的方法理解名义工资刚性
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117
Yoon Joo Jo
{"title":"Beyond the spike at zero: Understanding nominal wage rigidity through empirical and model-based approaches","authors":"Yoon Joo Jo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104117","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I examine the cyclical properties of nominal wage change distributions across time and US states using nationally representative household surveys from 1979 to 2018. The novel finding is that the share of workers with no wage changes, which accounts for the large spike at zero in the nominal wage change distribution, is more countercyclical than the share of workers with wage cuts. I analyze heterogeneous agent models with six alternative wage-setting schemes and conclude that the model with downward nominal wage rigidity is the most consistent with empirical findings regarding the shape and cyclicality of wage change distributions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104117"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144489485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes 固定汇率制度下的产出差异
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115
Yao Chen , Felix Ward
{"title":"Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes","authors":"Yao Chen ,&nbsp;Felix Ward","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104115"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commodity prices and the US dollar 商品价格和美元
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114
Daniel M. Rees
{"title":"Commodity prices and the US dollar","authors":"Daniel M. Rees","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States’ shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104114"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144272584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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