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Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104087
Marcin Kolasa , Sahil Ravgotra , Pawel Zabczyk
{"title":"Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model","authors":"Marcin Kolasa ,&nbsp;Sahil Ravgotra ,&nbsp;Pawel Zabczyk","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the implications of adding boundedly rational agents á la Gabaix (2020) to the canonical New Keynesian open economy model. We show that accounting for myopia mitigates several “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates and helps explain why some of them only arise in the nested case of rational expectations. Bayesian estimation of the model demonstrates that a high degree of “cognitive discounting” significantly improves empirical fit. We also show that this form of bounded rationality makes positive international monetary spillovers more likely and exacerbates the unit root problem in small open economy models with incomplete markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104087"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How infrastructure shapes comparative advantage
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104083
Luis Baldomero-Quintana
{"title":"How infrastructure shapes comparative advantage","authors":"Luis Baldomero-Quintana","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I show that domestic trade costs shape national comparative advantage by studying planned highway upgrades in Colombia. I build a multisectoral economic geography model with multiple shipping routes, industry linkages, external economies of scale, and trade costs that depend on both highways’ speed and ports’ usage. I discipline the model with data on customs transactions, domestic trade, and road travel times. My quantitative results show that the <em>Ruta del Sol</em> national highway would shift Colombia’s comparative advantage toward manufacturing. These upgrades would reduce intermediate input prices, lowering unit production costs, thus inducing an export boom. Manufacturing exports rise the most due to three channels. First, the road connects the largest manufacturing region with ports specialized in this sector. Second, manufacturing uses intensively tradable intermediate inputs, and the roadworks would increase their trade. Last, external economies of scale favor manufacturing because agglomeration forces are stronger for this sector relative to others.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104083"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of NAFTA on prices and competition: Evidence from Mexican manufacturing plants
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104085
Felipe Brugués , Ayumu Ken Kikkawa , Yuan Mei , Pablo Robles
{"title":"The impact of NAFTA on prices and competition: Evidence from Mexican manufacturing plants","authors":"Felipe Brugués ,&nbsp;Ayumu Ken Kikkawa ,&nbsp;Yuan Mei ,&nbsp;Pablo Robles","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants’ output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a decline in prices as Mexican plants faced more competition and gained access to cheaper inputs. Prices of exported goods fell only slightly as plants increased their markups in response to a favorable competitive environment due to declines in U.S. tariffs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104085"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143777599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104090
Yi Che , Donglin Lin , Yan Zhang
{"title":"Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion","authors":"Yi Che ,&nbsp;Donglin Lin ,&nbsp;Yan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104090","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104090","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a 1.312-fold rise in tariff evasion for affected products post–trade war. This effect mainly works through intermediate goods, and its impact grows as importers' tariff liabilities increase. Further analysis considering local social environments shows that voters' attitudes toward trade protection and the development of labor unions play crucial roles in mediating the influence of market demand on tariff evasion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104090"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143807887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default: More similar than you think
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104082
Gita Gopinath , Josefin Meyer , Carmen M. Reinhart , Christoph Trebesch
{"title":"Sovereign vs. corporate debt and default: More similar than you think","authors":"Gita Gopinath ,&nbsp;Josefin Meyer ,&nbsp;Carmen M. Reinhart ,&nbsp;Christoph Trebesch","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (“junk”) bonds to high-yield emerging market sovereign bonds, 2002–2021. Investor experiences in these two asset classes were surprisingly aligned, with (i) similar average excess returns, (ii) similar average risk-return patterns (Sharpe ratios), (iii) similar default frequency, and (iv) comparable haircuts. A notable difference is that the average default duration is higher for sovereigns. Moreover, the two markets co-move differently with domestic and global factors. US “junk” bond yields are more closely linked to US market conditions such as US stock returns, US stock price volatility (VIX), or US monetary policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104082"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Got milk? The effect of export price shocks on exchange rates
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104080
Hillary Stein
{"title":"Got milk? The effect of export price shocks on exchange rates","authors":"Hillary Stein","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand’s dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand’s largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its price is determined in twice-monthly auctions. I use event studies to quantify the impact of surprise auction results on the New Zealand dollar on a high-frequency basis. I find that a 1 percent surprise increase in whole milk powder prices has a modest, but nevertheless significant, effect on the nominal exchange rate. The methodology developed here can potentially be applied to other commodity exporters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104080"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143786123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global value chains in a world of uncertainty and automation
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104079
Marius Faber , Kemal Kilic , Gleb Kozliakov , Dalia Marin
{"title":"Global value chains in a world of uncertainty and automation","authors":"Marius Faber ,&nbsp;Kemal Kilic ,&nbsp;Gleb Kozliakov ,&nbsp;Dalia Marin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal. We show that plausibly exogenous exposure to uncertainty in developing countries leads to reshoring to high-income countries, but only if industrial robots have made this economically feasible. In contrast, we find no strong evidence of nearshoring or diversification. We address concerns about reverse causality by showing that results hold when using two alternative identification strategies. In a narrative approach, we use only locally generated spikes in uncertainty, for which the narratives around the events suggest that they are plausibly exogenous. In a small open economy approach, we restrict the sample to small developed countries that are unlikely to cause uncertainty in the developing world. Moreover, we show that results are robust to the main threats to identification related to shift-share instruments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104079"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: The role of trade credit
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064
Mélina London , Maéva Silvestrini
{"title":"US monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: The role of trade credit","authors":"Mélina London ,&nbsp;Maéva Silvestrini","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104064","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm-to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104064"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unintended consequences of environmental regulation of maritime shipping: Carbon leakage to air shipping
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081
Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Alexandre Skiba , David Terner
{"title":"Unintended consequences of environmental regulation of maritime shipping: Carbon leakage to air shipping","authors":"Volodymyr Lugovskyy ,&nbsp;Alexandre Skiba ,&nbsp;David Terner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization’s CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports—covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade—we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO<span><math><msub><mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> emissions in both the short- and long-run. Additionally, it will cause significant welfare losses. Our findings support a case for more efficient alternative policy options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104081"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global banking and macroeconomic stability. Liquidity, control, and monitoring
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104077
Elton Beqiraj , Qingqing Cao , Ralph De Haas , Raoul Minetti
{"title":"Global banking and macroeconomic stability. Liquidity, control, and monitoring","authors":"Elton Beqiraj ,&nbsp;Qingqing Cao ,&nbsp;Ralph De Haas ,&nbsp;Raoul Minetti","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104077","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104077","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how the organizational structure of global banks shapes their impact on macroeconomic stability. We develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which global banks can either delegate loan monitoring to local affiliates or exert control over affiliates’ monitoring activities, hiring loan officers centrally. Moreover, we allow global banks to transfer liquidity between parents and local affiliates through internal capital markets. We show that global banks with a centralized business model (with loan officers hired centrally by the parent and an intense use of internal capital markets) help mitigate the impact of financial shocks on the host economy. However, they may become a destabilizing factor following real shocks that hit the quality of firms’ investments. The model predictions are consistent with bank-level evidence from a large set of countries that host global bank affiliates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104077"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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