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The standard errors of persistence
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027
Timothy G. Conley, Morgan Kelly
{"title":"The standard errors of persistence","authors":"Timothy G. Conley,&nbsp;Morgan Kelly","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to inadequately controlling for spurious correlation. To analyze this we introduce a new regression procedure and two diagnostic tests of no treatment effect: (a) a placebo test where the treatment is replaced with spatial noise and (b) a synthetic outcomes test of the hypothesis that the outcome is generated by a trend plus a spatial noise process independent of the treatment. We then show how reliable regression results can be obtained by adding a low dimensional spatial basis to the regression of interest, and applying a large cluster standard error correction. Examining 30 persistence studies in leading journals we find that few approach significance at conventional levels. Our procedure applies to regressions with spatial observations more generally and is implemented in an open source package.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104027"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142745180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada 帝国计划：战时加拿大的贸易政策
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024
Markus Lampe , Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke , Lorenz Reiter , Yoto V. Yotov
{"title":"The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada","authors":"Markus Lampe ,&nbsp;Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke ,&nbsp;Lorenz Reiter ,&nbsp;Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tariff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have heterogeneous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on Canadian imports was large.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104024"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Good connections : Bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports 良好的联系 ：银行专业化和出口关税弹性
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021
Antoine Berthou , Thierry Mayer , Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier
{"title":"Good connections : Bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports","authors":"Antoine Berthou ,&nbsp;Thierry Mayer ,&nbsp;Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Banks support exporters in foreign markets by providing them with credit, trade finance instruments or information about business opportunities. Repeated interactions with clients allow them to develop an expertise in specific markets – a geographical specialization. We develop a theoretical model where the specialization of banks translates into lower export costs for their clients through both the cost of credit and an information channel. The model predicts that the geographical specialization of banks tends to amplify the response of firm-level exports to a trade liberalization episode. We test this prediction on detailed French export data, using the 2011 free trade agreement between the European Union and Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that the tariff elasticity of exports is larger in absolute terms for exporters which are connected to banks with a specialization in Korea. The sector specialization of the banks also matters, but to a lesser extent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104021"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland 跨境购物：瑞士的证据和福利影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015
Ariel Burstein , Sarah Lein , Jonathan Vogel
{"title":"Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland","authors":"Ariel Burstein ,&nbsp;Sarah Lein ,&nbsp;Jonathan Vogel","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Consumers access foreign goods by purchasing them domestically or shopping abroad. We present new facts on cross-border shopping by Swiss households showing, for example, that prices of identical products are lower in neighboring countries, cross-border shopping shares fall with distance to the border, and price gaps and cross-border shopping shares rose following the 2015 Swiss Franc appreciation. We use a simple model of cross-border shopping to quantify how variation across space in cross-border shopping results in heterogeneous changes in cost-of-living in response to changes in international prices such as the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation and the 2020 Covid-19-related closing of the border.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104015"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises 从宏观经济角度看跨国企业征税问题
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022
Sebastian Dyrda , Guangbin Hong , Joseph B. Steinberg
{"title":"A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda ,&nbsp;Guangbin Hong ,&nbsp;Joseph B. Steinberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a general-equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic consequences of international profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In our model, MNEs shift profits by exploiting intangible capital transfer pricing rules, which makes intangible investment more attractive and leads to higher output at home and abroad. We use the model to quantify the effects of two reforms proposed by the OECD: (i) reallocating MNEs’ profit tax bases to the countries where they sell their products; and (ii) a minimum global corporate income tax. Both reforms would reduce profit shifting substantially, but (i) would reduce global output whereas (ii) would have little macroeconomic impact. The reforms’ distributional implications would also be important. In high-tax countries, tax revenues would increase more than output declines, raising gross national income and enabling redistribution that could offset lower wages. In contrast, output and tax revenues would both drop in low-tax countries, significantly reducing national income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104022"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty 英国脱欧不确定性的进口（蚂蚁）代价
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012
Alejandro G. Graziano , Kyle Handley , Nuno Limão
{"title":"An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty","authors":"Alejandro G. Graziano ,&nbsp;Kyle Handley ,&nbsp;Nuno Limão","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104012"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension 国际贸易中的三角不平等：被忽视的层面
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018
Reto Foellmi , Christian Hepenstrick , David Torun
{"title":"Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension","authors":"Reto Foellmi ,&nbsp;Christian Hepenstrick ,&nbsp;David Torun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104018"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade under lockdown 被封锁的贸易
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013
Antoine Berthou , Sebastian Stumpner
{"title":"Trade under lockdown","authors":"Antoine Berthou ,&nbsp;Sebastian Stumpner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To curb the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on public health, many countries around the world introduced lockdown policies in 2020. This paper estimates the effect of these lockdowns on international trade flows using a rich dataset of monthly bilateral trade flows covering over 80% of world trade. We first document that both exporter and importer lockdowns significantly reduced trade flows, that this effect differed substantially across sectors, and has been declining over time. We then decompose this total effect into a direct effect of lockdowns on trade, and an indirect effect that is mediated by a decline in economic activity. Our results indicate that lockdowns reduced trade also conditional on economic activity, suggesting an important increase in trade costs due to lockdowns. A quantification exercise shows that the welfare consequences of these trade costs were sizable, amounting to about one sixth of the welfare loss under a complete return to autarky.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104013"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The rise of the walking dead: Zombie firms around the world 行尸走肉的崛起世界各地的僵尸企业
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019
Bruno Albuquerque , Roshan Iyer
{"title":"The rise of the walking dead: Zombie firms around the world","authors":"Bruno Albuquerque ,&nbsp;Roshan Iyer","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build a comprehensive new dataset spanning listed and private nonfinancial zombie firms across Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets over the past two decades. Our findings reveal a global rise in the prevalence of these unproductive and unviable firms, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that private firms exhibit lower zombification rates due to their lower average survival rates. Our paper also offers a new perspective on zombie lending drivers: lenders may rationalize zombie lending based on overly optimistic expectations of a recovery in zombies’ future earnings. We then document that macroprudential policies targeting bank capital and loan restrictions can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of zombification. However, strengthening the banking sector alone may not suffice without robust insolvency frameworks prepared to manage firm restructuring and insolvency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104019"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The foreign firm wage premium in the Israeli tech sector 以色列科技行业的外国公司工资溢价
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017
Noam Gruber
{"title":"The foreign firm wage premium in the Israeli tech sector","authors":"Noam Gruber","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign tech multinationals, which have entered Israel en masse in the past two decades, are known to use high wages to draw in the best talent. While paying higher wages no doubt contributes to the domestic economy, local tech firms have argued that the competition for talent inhibits their growth, and that foreign multinationals contribute less in terms of overall economic value compared to local firms. It is thus of great importance to estimate the foreign firm wage premium – by how much do foreign multinationals pay more for comparable talent? Using an extensive micro-level education data and exploiting worker movement and firm shutdowns/downsizing as an unbiased alternative to AKM methodology, this paper finds the foreign firm wage premium to be in the 3%–4% range, much less than previously estimated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104017"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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