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Liquidity as competitive advantage: The role of intangibles 流动资金作为竞争优势：无形资产的作用
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168
Carlo Altomonte , Monica Morlacco , Tommaso Sonno , Domenico Favoino
{"title":"Liquidity as competitive advantage: The role of intangibles","authors":"Carlo Altomonte ,&nbsp;Monica Morlacco ,&nbsp;Tommaso Sonno ,&nbsp;Domenico Favoino","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show that short-term liquidity can be a source of competitive advantage by enabling firms to invest in intangible assets. Our analysis leverages a French reform that capped payment delays in trade credit contracts, which generated quasi-experimental variation in corporate liquidity across manufacturing firms. Higher liquidity led to significantly greater investment in intangibles, which, in turn, raised markups and market shares. These results suggest a strategic role for liquidity in shaping firm performance, indicating that initial financial conditions can have lasting effects on productivity and market structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104168"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy 多维度美国货币政策的全球溢出效应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169
Georgios Georgiadis, Marek Jarociński
{"title":"Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy","authors":"Georgios Georgiadis,&nbsp;Marek Jarociński","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate international spillovers from both conventional and unconventional US monetary policy. We use novel measures of exogenous variation in conventional policy, forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), based on high-frequency asset price surprises around a broad set of Federal Reserve communications. The identification relies on relatively weak assumptions and accounts for potential endogenous policy components – including central bank information effects – in these asset price surprises. We find that: (i) conventional policy, forward guidance and LSAPs all generate large and comparable spillovers; (ii) these spillovers transmit through trade and financial channels to a similar extent; (iii) LSAPs trigger immediate international portfolio rebalancing between US and foreign bonds that are relatively close substitutes, but they produce only limited spillovers in term premia; (iv) all Fed policy measures create trade-offs for emerging market monetary policy between stabilizing output and prices vs. ensuring financial stability, particularly with regard to capital inflows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104169"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk 温度风险的宏观经济成本
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157
Piergiorgio Alessandri , Haroon Mumtaz
{"title":"The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk","authors":"Piergiorgio Alessandri ,&nbsp;Haroon Mumtaz","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures – a measure of <em>ex ante</em> temperature risk – varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 °C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent increase in the volatility of GDP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104157"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending 与气候变化相关的监管风险和银行贷款
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156
Isabella Mueller , Eleonora Sfrappini
{"title":"Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending","authors":"Isabella Mueller ,&nbsp;Eleonora Sfrappini","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze how firms’ climate change-related regulatory risks affect banks’ lending. Exploiting the Paris Agreement in a difference-in-differences setting, we find that effects depend on how borrowers will be affected by regulation as well as the stringency of the existing regulatory environment where firms are located. Firms that benefit from regulation receive more credit only if located in more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, firms hurt by regulation receive more credit if located in less stringent environments or if linked to banks with a portfolio tilted towards lending to negatively impacted firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104156"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks 不惜一切代价去理解一位央行行长——用神经网络嵌入他们的话语
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101
Martin Baumgärtner , Johannes Zahner
{"title":"Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks","authors":"Martin Baumgärtner ,&nbsp;Johannes Zahner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dictionary-based methods represent the most commonly used approach for quantifying the qualitative information from (central bank) communication. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that generates embeddings from words and documents. Embeddings are multidimensional numerical text representations that capture the underlying semantic relationships within text. Using a novel corpus of 22,000 documents from 128 central banks, we generate the first domain-specific embeddings for central bank communication that outperform dictionaries and existing embeddings on tasks such as predicting monetary policy shocks. We further demonstrate the efficacy of our embeddings by constructing an index that tracks the extent to which Federal Reserve communications align with an inflation-targeting stance. Our empirical results indicate that deviations from inflation-targeting language substantially affect market-based expectations and influence monetary policy decisions, significantly reducing the inflation response parameter in an estimated Taylor rule.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104101"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Skill-biased imports, skill acquisition, and migration 以技能为导向的进口、技能获取和移民
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128
Jingting Fan , Lei Li
{"title":"Skill-biased imports, skill acquisition, and migration","authors":"Jingting Fan ,&nbsp;Lei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Imported capital goods, which embody skill-complementary technologies, can increase the supply of skills in developing countries. Focusing on China and using a shift-share design, we show that city-level capital goods import growth increases the local skill share and that both skill acquisition and migration play a role. We develop and quantify a spatial equilibrium model with these two mechanisms to examine the aggregate effects of capital goods imports, accounting for trade and migration linkages between cities. Counterfactual experiments suggest that the growth in capital goods imports in China between 2000 and 2010 led to a 3.1–7.3 million increase in the stock of college graduates, representing 4.4–10.4% of the total increase over this period, with the increase disproportionately occurring in coastal regions. These endogenous skill supply responses reduce by half the increase in the aggregate skill premium due to capital goods imports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers? 2018年的贸易战是否改善了美国工人的就业机会？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125
Beata Javorcik , Benjamin Kett , Katherine Stapleton , Layla O’Kane
{"title":"Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers?","authors":"Beata Javorcik ,&nbsp;Benjamin Kett ,&nbsp;Katherine Stapleton ,&nbsp;Layla O’Kane","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. We find evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. The effects of imported input tariffs were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings and for part-time than full-time jobs. By contrast, we do not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. We estimate that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 162,019 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104125"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household responses to trade shocks 家庭对贸易冲击的反应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144
Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique , Peter Levell , Matthias Parey
{"title":"Household responses to trade shocks","authors":"Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique ,&nbsp;Peter Levell ,&nbsp;Matthias Parey","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of Chinese import competition in the 2000s on workers and their households in England and Wales. We document both the direct employment changes of individuals affected by trade exposure, as well as the employment response of individuals whose partner is exposed to trade. We find substantial differences by gender. Men respond to import competition by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an ‘added worker effect’ when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply following shocks affecting their partners. Male workers exposed to import competition largely enter self-employed jobs in historically male-dominated occupations, as do men reacting to shocks affecting their partners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104144"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144913125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile 贸易政策能改变性别平等吗？来自智利的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143
Utsa Banerjee , Luis Castro Peñarrieta , Pavel Chakraborty
{"title":"Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile","authors":"Utsa Banerjee ,&nbsp;Luis Castro Peñarrieta ,&nbsp;Pavel Chakraborty","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do firms reorganize gender composition of their employment in response to trade shocks? Using novel data on gender composition of employment across several occupational groups for Chilean manufacturing firms matched with customs data for 1995–2007, a developing country with low gender equality, and utilizing the 1998 Chile–Mexico Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as the quasi-natural shock, we document the first evidence that the share of female white-collar workers increased by 10% for new exporters exporting to Mexico due to the FTA. This happened through a substitution effect from male to female high-skilled workers due to higher use of technology (both domestic and foreign), high-skilled non-production tasks, and reduction in discrimination. We also show that this increase in this share of white-collar female workers is due to a demand- rather than supply-side effect. Overall, we emphasize that trade policy can play an important role in addressing the gender gap in employment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104143"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A search and learning model of export dynamics 出口动态的搜索与学习模型
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155
Jonathan Eaton , Marcela Eslava , David Jinkins , C.J. Krizan , James Tybout
{"title":"A search and learning model of export dynamics","authors":"Jonathan Eaton ,&nbsp;Marcela Eslava ,&nbsp;David Jinkins ,&nbsp;C.J. Krizan ,&nbsp;James Tybout","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm’s customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through “market amnesia” would cost Colombian exporters US$14.2 billion, over twice annual exports to the U.S. About a quarter of this reflects lost future sales to current customers; the rest stems from the cost of relearning product appeal and regaining visibility. The frictions we estimate slow trade’s response to shocks: the 10-year export sales response to an exchange rate shock is 48 percent larger than the 1-year response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104155"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144913124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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