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Trade liberalization, wage rigidity, and labor market dynamics with heterogeneous firms 贸易自由化、工资刚性和异质性企业的劳动力市场动态
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104260
Ekaterina Gurkova , Elhanan Helpman , Oleg Itskhoki
{"title":"Trade liberalization, wage rigidity, and labor market dynamics with heterogeneous firms","authors":"Ekaterina Gurkova ,&nbsp;Elhanan Helpman ,&nbsp;Oleg Itskhoki","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade liberalization triggers substantial within-sector labor reallocation, a pattern captured by heterogeneous-firm trade models. We study transition dynamics of firms and workers in response to changes in trade costs, incorporating labor market frictions. Responses vary by firm productivity: high-productivity exporters expand employment, while lower-productivity firms exit, downsize before exit, or gradually shrink. As a result, jobs with similar initial wages differ ex post, with high-productivity firms offering higher wages and greater stability. Calibrating the model, we quantify adjustment channels and show that gains from lower consumer prices outweigh losses from wage cuts, job destruction, and capital losses, although these losses are concentrated among a subset of workers. Downward wage rigidity can improve welfare, creating a trade-off between worker displacement and income loss.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 104260"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Have global value chains shifted? 全球价值链转移了吗？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104264
Binchao Shen
{"title":"Have global value chains shifted?","authors":"Binchao Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104264","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104264","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building on a unified accounting framework for value-added trade, this paper introduces a method for quantifying the paths in global value chains (GVCs) using inter-country input–output tables, which evaluates the indirect linkages between two countries through a third-party intermediary. The GVC path index identifies the “hub-and-spoke” structure within GVC networks and refines the concept of GVC exposure. We apply this index to detect recent shifts in global value chains following the U.S.-China trade war. Our analysis reveals a notable rise in the GVC path from China to Mexico and Vietnam, and subsequently to the U.S. We provide a theoretical justification for the trade rerouting phenomenon and quantify the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the GVC shifts with a general equilibrium model. Additionally, the GVC paths through which major exporters supply the U.S. market have been redirected away from China subsequent to the trade war.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 104264"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147797385","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Complements or substitutes? Labor market effects of foreign inputs in developing economies 补充还是替代？外国投入对发展中经济体劳动力市场的影响
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-04-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104263
Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía , Juan Muñoz-Morales , Román David Zárate
{"title":"Complements or substitutes? Labor market effects of foreign inputs in developing economies","authors":"Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía ,&nbsp;Juan Muñoz-Morales ,&nbsp;Román David Zárate","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104263","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104263","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how import liberalization affects labor markets when labor and intermediate inputs can be complements or substitutes. We embed a constant-elasticity-of-substitution production function in a dynamic trade model, showing that labor market responses depend on sector-specific substitution elasticities. Empirically, we exploit tariff reductions in Colombia using a difference-in-differences design that decomposes trade shocks into import-competition and input channels. Import competition reduces the wage bill, while cheaper intermediate inputs increase it; these gains are driven by services, are imprecisely estimated in manufacturing, and reverse in agriculture. Combining the model with reduced-form estimates, we use indirect inference to recover sector-specific elasticities. We find substitution between labor and intermediates in agriculture and manufacturing, but complementarity in services. Allowing for this flexibility relative to a Cobb–Douglas benchmark amplifies worker reallocation toward services and away from agriculture. It also increases welfare in services and reduces it in manufacturing and agriculture.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"161 ","pages":"Article 104263"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147849948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demand for safe assets and spillovers from the global dollar cycle 对安全资产的需求和全球美元周期的溢出效应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104223
Cían Allen , Rudolfs Bems , Lukas Boer , Racha Moussa
{"title":"Demand for safe assets and spillovers from the global dollar cycle","authors":"Cían Allen ,&nbsp;Rudolfs Bems ,&nbsp;Lukas Boer ,&nbsp;Racha Moussa","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104223","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104223","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying “global dollar cycle”. Our results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar appreciations fall disproportionately on emerging markets. In contrast, effects on advanced economies are small and short-lived. Emerging market commodity exporters historically experienced larger negative spillovers than commodity importers, reflecting a strong negative link between the US dollar and commodity prices. In terms of policies, more anchored inflation expectations can mitigate the initial negative spillovers, while more flexible exchange rates can speed up the subsequent economic recovery.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104223"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Historical military conflict, current trade tensions, and global supply chains 历史上的军事冲突，当前的贸易紧张局势，以及全球供应链
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104221
Yichuan Hu , Chang Li , Shu Lin
{"title":"Historical military conflict, current trade tensions, and global supply chains","authors":"Yichuan Hu ,&nbsp;Chang Li ,&nbsp;Shu Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104221","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104221","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how two significant conflicts between China and the U.S.—the Korean War and the current trade war—affect global supply chains. Using hand-collected data, we find that the death toll from the Korean War in a chairperson's city of origin strongly influences Chinese firms' selection of U.S. suppliers today. Moreover, the current trade tensions reactivate memories of wartime trauma, significantly amplifying their negative effects. We identify two key mechanisms driving this change: Chinese retaliatory tariffs and increased media coverage of the Korean War within China. A variety of empirical tests suggest that our findings are causal and are not a result of U.S. suppliers' choice.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104221"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Protection for sale without aggregation bias 没有聚集偏见的销售保护
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104222
Jean-Marc Solleder , Fulvio Silvy , Marcelo Olarreaga
{"title":"Protection for sale without aggregation bias","authors":"Jean-Marc Solleder ,&nbsp;Fulvio Silvy ,&nbsp;Marcelo Olarreaga","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104222","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104222","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimates of Grossman and Helpman (1994) <em>Protection For Sale</em> (PFS) model yield unrealistically high estimates of the weight governments put on social welfare relative to lobbying contributions. Estimates of the former are often close to 1. We argue this is due to the level of aggregation at which the model is estimated. While protection is determined at the tariff line level, production data are only available at the industry level. Using a new production dataset at the tariff level, our estimates show that the average weight on social welfare in a sample of 142 countries declines by 77 percent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104222"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The distributional effects of carbon pricing across countries 碳定价在国家间的分配效应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104228
Mathilde Le Moigne , Simon Lepot , Marcos Ritel , Dora Simon
{"title":"The distributional effects of carbon pricing across countries","authors":"Mathilde Le Moigne ,&nbsp;Simon Lepot ,&nbsp;Marcos Ritel ,&nbsp;Dora Simon","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104228","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104228","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a quantitative international trade model with climate policies to explore the distributional effects of carbon pricing across countries. Our analysis addresses two key questions facing global climate action: which countries bear the greatest burden of climate policies, and how these policies can be designed to ensure fairness. We present three main findings. First, efficient climate policies that disregard distributional concerns significantly exacerbate between-country inequality. Second, equity can be achieved alongside efficiency when climate policies are complemented by economically feasible international transfers, either equalizing carbon tax costs or accounting for historical emissions, with minimal economic impact on high-income countries. Third, carbon tax schemes with heterogeneous pricing – featuring lower rates for low- and middle-income countries – do not necessarily result in fairer outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104228"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nickell bias in panel local projection: Financial crises are worse than you think 小组局部预测的尼克尔偏差：金融危机比你想象的更严重
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104210
Ziwei Mei , Liugang Sheng , Zhentao Shi
{"title":"Nickell bias in panel local projection: Financial crises are worse than you think","authors":"Ziwei Mei ,&nbsp;Liugang Sheng ,&nbsp;Zhentao Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104210","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104210","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Panel local projection (LP) with fixed-effects (FE) is widely adopted for evaluating the economic consequences of financial crises across countries. This paper highlights a fundamental methodological issue: the presence of the Nickell bias in the panel FE estimator due to inherent dynamic structures of predictive specifications, even if the regressors have no lagged dependent variables. The Nickell bias invalidates the standard inferential procedure based on the <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span>-statistic. We propose a split-panel jackknife (SPJ) estimator as a simple, easy-to-implement, and yet effective solution to eliminate the bias and restore valid statistical inference. We revisit four influential empirical studies on the impact of financial crises, and find that the FE method underestimates the economic losses of financial crises relative to the SPJ estimates. Replication files are available at <span><span>https://metricshilab.github.io/panel-lp-replication/</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>, with links to R and Stata packages.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104210"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145903897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Insufficient or excessive investment under sovereign default risk 主权违约风险下的投资不足或过度
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104232
Ilhwan Song , Gabriel Mihalache
{"title":"Insufficient or excessive investment under sovereign default risk","authors":"Ilhwan Song ,&nbsp;Gabriel Mihalache","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104232","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104232","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Private agents do not internalize the impact of their investment decisions on the sovereign’s bond prices and default risk. Therefore, a standard externality argument implies that investment is insufficient and that a subsidy can improve welfare, if financed by non-distortionary means. We contrast this logic with a countervailing force. When the sovereign is impatient relative to households, plausibly due to political economy factors, it finds laissez-faire capital accumulation excessive and might prefer instead to tax it. We embed both mechanisms in a sovereign default model with decentralized capital investment, long-term public debt, and stochastic trend growth, calibrated to salient features of the Spanish economy. We find that the impatience channel dominates quantitatively, to such an extent that laissez-faire is preferable to the government’s ideal fiscal policy, based on households’ welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104232"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labor market polarization and the great urban divergence 劳动力市场两极分化和城市大分化
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104224
Donald R. Davis , Eric Mengus , Tomasz K. Michalski
{"title":"Labor market polarization and the great urban divergence","authors":"Donald R. Davis ,&nbsp;Eric Mengus ,&nbsp;Tomasz K. Michalski","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104224","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104224","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Labor market polarization is among the most important features in recent decades of advanced country labor markets. Yet key spatial aspects of this phenomenon remain under-explored. We develop four key facts that document the universality of polarization across cities, a city-size difference in the shock magnitudes, a skew in the types of middle-paid jobs lost, and the role of polarization in the great urban divergence of skills. Existing theories cannot account for these facts. Hence we develop a parsimonious theoretical account that does so by integrating elements from the literatures on labor market polarization and systems of cities with heterogeneous labor in spatial equilibrium.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"160 ","pages":"Article 104224"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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