2018年的贸易战是否改善了美国工人的就业机会？

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125

Beata Javorcik , Benjamin Kett , Katherine Stapleton , Layla O’Kane

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用美国网上发布的招聘广告数据，研究2018年贸易战对美国就业机会的影响。我们制定了劳动力市场暴露于贸易战影响的三个关键渠道的措施：美国生产商的进口保护，美国生产商进口投入成本上升，以及美国出口商面临报复性关税的风险。我们发现有证据表明，对进口投入品征收关税和报复性关税都会导致受影响通勤区网上招聘信息的相对下降。进口投入关税对低技能岗位的影响强于对高技能岗位的影响，对兼职岗位的影响强于全职岗位。相比之下，我们没有发现任何证据表明进口保护对就业机会有积极影响。我们估计，这些关税导致2018年就业岗位总数减少162019个，占美国就业岗位总数的0.6%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers?

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. We find evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. The effects of imported input tariffs were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings and for part-time than full-time jobs. By contrast, we do not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. We estimate that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 162,019 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.