The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157

Piergiorgio Alessandri , Haroon Mumtaz

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures – a measure of ex ante temperature risk – varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 °C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent increase in the volatility of GDP.

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温度风险的宏观经济成本

我们利用一种新的面板VAR模型和160个国家自20世纪60年代以来的数据研究了温度风险对经济增长的影响。我们表明，年温度的条件波动率（一种事前温度风险的度量）随着时间的推移而显著变化，对增长具有重要意义。控制了伴随的温度水平变化，温度风险每增加1°C，就会导致国内生产总值增长平均下降0.4%，国内生产总值波动率增加1%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.