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Credit Cycles, fiscal policy, and global imbalances 信贷周期、财政政策和全球失衡
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104063
Callum Jones , Pau Rabanal
{"title":"Credit Cycles, fiscal policy, and global imbalances","authors":"Callum Jones ,&nbsp;Pau Rabanal","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104063","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104063","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a two-country model with financial frictions and fiscal policy to study the role that changes in credit and fiscal positions play in explaining current account fluctuations. We estimate the model using data for the U.S. and a “rest-of-the-world” aggregate. We find that about 32 percent of U.S. current account balance fluctuations are due to domestic credit shocks, while fiscal shocks explain about 21 percent. Simple macroprudential rules that react to domestic credit conditions and countercyclical fiscal policy can help reduce global imbalances, and lead to a smaller and less volatile U.S. current account deficit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104063"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143738782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regional trade policy uncertainty 区域贸易政策的不确定性
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078
Céline Poilly , Fabien Tripier
{"title":"Regional trade policy uncertainty","authors":"Céline Poilly ,&nbsp;Fabien Tripier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104078"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of clocks, ships and cities 解答经度之谜：一个关于时钟、船只和城市的故事
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104067
Martina Miotto , Luigi Pascali
{"title":"Solving the longitude puzzle: A story of clocks, ships and cities","authors":"Martina Miotto ,&nbsp;Luigi Pascali","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104067","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104067","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The chronometer, one of the greatest inventions of the modern era, allowed for the first time for the precise measurement of longitude at sea. We examine the impact of this innovation on navigation and urbanization. Our identification strategy leverages the fact that the navigational benefits provided by the chronometer varied across different sea regions depending on the prevailing local weather conditions. Utilizing high-resolution data on climate, ship routes, and urbanization, we argue that the chronometer significantly altered transoceanic sailing routes. This, in turn, had profound effects on the expansion of the British Empire and the global distribution of cities and populations outside Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104067"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143682277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inequality and optimal monetary policy in the open economy 开放经济中的不平等与最优货币政策
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104076
Sushant Acharya , Edouard Challe
{"title":"Inequality and optimal monetary policy in the open economy","authors":"Sushant Acharya ,&nbsp;Edouard Challe","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOE-HANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the ”open-economy divine coincidence” result of Galí and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality generate monetary policy tradeoffs. Under plausible calibrations for the trade elasticities, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the cyclicality of income risk, the central bank stabilizes output and the exchange rate more than in SOE-RANK.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104076"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade war and peace: U.S.-China trade and tariff risk from 2015–2050 贸易战与和平：2015-2050年中美贸易与关税风险
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066
George Alessandria , Shafaat Yar Khan , Armen Khederlarian , Kim J. Ruhl , Joseph B. Steinberg
{"title":"Trade war and peace: U.S.-China trade and tariff risk from 2015–2050","authors":"George Alessandria ,&nbsp;Shafaat Yar Khan ,&nbsp;Armen Khederlarian ,&nbsp;Kim J. Ruhl ,&nbsp;Joseph B. Steinberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104066"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143629523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Revealed comparative disadvantage of infants: Exposure to NAFTA and birth outcomes 揭示的婴儿比较劣势：暴露于北美自由贸易协定和出生结果
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104075
Hamid Noghanibehambari
{"title":"Revealed comparative disadvantage of infants: Exposure to NAFTA and birth outcomes","authors":"Hamid Noghanibehambari","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the relationship between regional exposure to trade liberalization under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and infant health outcomes in the U.S., focusing on differences in impact across areas with varying levels of import competition. I explore this question by implementing event studies and difference-in-difference regressions that compare birth outcomes of infants born in different years relative to NAFTA and localities with differential exposure to import competition. Using more than 88 M birth records of Natality data, I find significant negative effects on a wide range of birth outcomes. The adverse effects are much larger for infants at the lower tails of birth weight and gestational age distribution. Additional analyses using a wide range of alternative data sources suggest several potential pathways, including reductions in income-employment, decreases in housing wealth, lower health care utilization, lower health insurance use, and lower-quality health insurance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104075"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593103","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mask wars: Sourcing a critical medical product from China in times of COVID-19 口罩之战：COVID-19时期从中国采购关键医疗产品
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104068
Andreas Fuchs , Lennart Kaplan , Krisztina Kis-Katos , Sebastian Leue , Felix Turbanisch , Feicheng Wang
{"title":"Mask wars: Sourcing a critical medical product from China in times of COVID-19","authors":"Andreas Fuchs ,&nbsp;Lennart Kaplan ,&nbsp;Krisztina Kis-Katos ,&nbsp;Sebastian Leue ,&nbsp;Felix Turbanisch ,&nbsp;Feicheng Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104068","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104068","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically heightened global demand for critical medical goods, with China being a key supplier. This paper examines the political factors that eased global access to face masks, a vital product during the initial phase of the pandemic. Employing a triple difference-in-differences event study framework, we compare the export dynamics of face masks with those of similar products. Our findings indicate that face mask prices surged after the outbreak of the pandemic, and China’s exports increased in response. Amid global shortages, political alignment at the national and subnational levels, particularly through political ties with Chinese provinces, played a significant role in driving the increase in China’s face mask exports to partner countries. These political connections contributed to export growth at both the extensive and intensive margins. Moreover, sister city relationships appear to have assisted in mitigating the early price increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104068"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143579759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Technical change, jobs, and wages in the global economy
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104065
Richard Baldwin , Jan I. Haaland , Anthony J. Venables
{"title":"Technical change, jobs, and wages in the global economy","authors":"Richard Baldwin ,&nbsp;Jan I. Haaland ,&nbsp;Anthony J. Venables","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104065","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104065","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a compact and intuitive framework that consolidates, simplifies, and extends results on the links between technology, trade, and labour market outcomes. It makes three main contributions. First, it presents closed-form solutions for the impacts of different types of technical change (TC) on jobs (the sectoral allocation of employment) as well as on wages, prices and output. Second, it shows that wage and employment effects are positively correlated only for certain types of TC and certain parameters, so wage and employment impacts need to be examined separately. Third, we incorporate a non-traded sector into our framework and show how employment in this sector alters results by offering a new margin of adjustment. The impact of TC on relative wages is dampened, although its sign is not changed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104065"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143529613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exportweltmeister: Germany’s foreign investment returns in international comparison 德国对外投资回报的国际比较
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104056
Franziska Hünnekes , Maximilian Konradt , Moritz Schularick , Christoph Trebesch , Julian Wingenbach
{"title":"Exportweltmeister: Germany’s foreign investment returns in international comparison","authors":"Franziska Hünnekes ,&nbsp;Maximilian Konradt ,&nbsp;Moritz Schularick ,&nbsp;Christoph Trebesch ,&nbsp;Julian Wingenbach","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Germany is a world champion in exporting capital (“Exportweltmeister”). Few countries have invested larger amounts of savings abroad. However, we show that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. We construct a comprehensive new database of foreign investment returns for 13 advanced economies going back to the 1970s. Germany’s foreign returns were 2 to 5 percentage points lower, per year, than those of comparable countries. Germany also earns significantly less within asset classes, especially for equities and FDI. These aggregate results are confirmed when using return data from 50,000 mutual funds worldwide. German investment funds are worse at stock picking and at timing the market than their international peers. This is particularly true for the ”Big 6” German mutual fund companies. German households would have fared much better with a passive investment strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"155 ","pages":"Article 104056"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143697788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital flows: The role of investment fund portfolio managers
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104062
Georgia Bush , Carlos Cañón
{"title":"Capital flows: The role of investment fund portfolio managers","authors":"Georgia Bush ,&nbsp;Carlos Cañón","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104062","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104062","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes drivers of capital flows channeled by open-ended mutual funds, disentangling flows resulting from investor behavior and those resulting from fund manager reallocation. Using security-level data from Morningstar, we construct a novel dataset of global bond funds for the period 2011 to 2017, whose holdings include securities from 18 emerging market economies. By disaggregating flows and leveraging country-fund variation, we are able to identify differentiated effects of push and pull factors on investor flows versus manager reallocation. We exploit the fund security holdings data further to implement a shift-share estimation approach. In addition, we are able to provide evidence of what institutional factors are influencing managers (liquidity, leverage, benchmarks). Finally, using textual analysis of funds’ prospectuses, we construct a measure of manager discretion, execute a difference-in-difference specification for the Taper Tantrum, and find funds with higher manager discretion were less prone to disinvesting from EMEs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104062"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143474330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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