{"title":"Foreign competition and innovation","authors":"Elhanan Helpman","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical studies have found that enhanced foreign competition can encourage or discourage innovation. To address this relationship, I examine a market structure in which a small number of large multi-product oligopolists compete with a large number of small single-product firms in the same industry. The single-product firms are short-lived while the multi-product firms live forever, and the large firms invest in innovation in order to enlarge their product spans. All firms export. I show that an increase in the competitiveness of foreign firms can increase or reduce innovation efforts of a large multi-product firm. Moreover, changes in the incentives to innovate can be different for more-productive and less-productive oligopolists. As a result, aggregate sectoral innovation may rise or decline, depending on the productivity distribution of the oligopolists. I also show that changes in short-term operating profits may not be aligned with changes in the incentives to innovate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104007"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Gary Lyn , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
{"title":"Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions","authors":"Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Gary Lyn , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we characterize the set of equilibria in a generalized version of the canonical two-region economic geography model that nests the class of models in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) as well as Krugman (1991) and features an input–output loop. We provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness of equilibria that — in contrast to the well-know result in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) — allow for positive agglomeration externalities, which concentrate economic activity, even in the absence of congestion effects, which disperse it, and highlight the key role played by three additional parameters: the <em>trade elasticity</em>, which regulates the strength of the dispersion force associated with the decline in the terms of trade caused by migration into a region; <em>trade costs</em>, which weaken this dispersion force by limiting trade across regions; and the importance of the <em>agricultural sector</em>, which pushes against agglomeration forces in manufacturing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104008"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?","authors":"Caroline Freund , Aaditya Mattoo , Alen Mulabdic , Michele Ruta","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 % to 16 % as a result of US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large, developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. In strategic industries, countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated in China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. There is no consistent evidence of reshoring but evidence of nearshoring to border nations. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of directly imported goods to the US in 2022.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104011"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The network origins of trade comovement","authors":"Justas Dainauskas","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I develop a production network model of the world economy that features <em>Transcendental Logarithmic</em> (a.k.a. translog) aggregators of varieties. This gives rise to variable substitution elasticities that consistent with the evidence are inversely related to the importer expenditure shares per exporter at the country-sector level. I quantify the model using data for 1970–2018 from 19 OECD economies and 30 sectors. Compared to the analogous constant elasticity version of the model, I find that the translog model amplifies international shock transmission between major trade partners and attenuates transmission elsewhere, which to an extent resolves the “trade comovement puzzle”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104010"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Sovereign risk and intangible investment","authors":"Minjie Deng , Chang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures the output and TFP losses from sovereign risk, considering firm-level intangible investment. Using Italian firm-level data, we show that firms reallocated from intangible assets to tangible assets during the 2011–2012 Italian sovereign debt crisis. This asset reallocation is more pronounced among small firms and high-leverage firms. This reallocation affects aggregate output and TFP. To explain the reallocation pattern and quantify the output and TFP losses, we build a sovereign default model incorporating firm intangible investment. In our model, sovereign risk deteriorates bank balance sheets, disrupting banks’ ability to finance firms. Firms with greater external financing needs are more exposed to sovereign risk. Facing tightening financial constraints, firms shift their resources towards tangibles because they can be used as collateral. We find that elevated sovereign risk explains 45% of the observed output losses and 31% of the TFP losses in Italy from 2011 to 2016.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104009"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms","authors":"Illenin O. Kondo , Yao Amber Li , Wei Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that larger input tariff reductions were associated with lower labor markdowns in China, especially for skill-intensive firms. Guided by a stylized model of equilibrium labor market power, we leverage differences in the aggregate labor supply dynamics across labor markets – such as regional variations in China’s contemporaneous college expansion reforms – to that show trade-induced labor markdown decreased more in labor markets with more labor supply growth. Our estimates suggest that lower labor markdowns due to input trade liberalization offset China’s aggregate labor share decline by almost one-half percentage point in the early 2000s.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104006"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yevheniia Bondarenko , Vivien Lewis , Matthias Rottner , Yves Schüler
{"title":"Geopolitical risk perceptions","authors":"Yevheniia Bondarenko , Vivien Lewis , Matthias Rottner , Yves Schüler","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104005"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public debt and household inflation expectations","authors":"Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal authorities plays a more limited role. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects but not with a greater risk of monetary finance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104003"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Imports and the CO2 emissions of firms","authors":"Anders Akerman , Rikard Forslid , Ossian Prane","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We explore how importing of intermediate goods affects the carbon intensity of firms in the Swedish manufacturing sector. By exploiting exogenous shocks to foreign export supply of intermediate goods, we estimate that a 10 percent increase in imports causes a 5.6 percent reduction in carbon intensity. Average carbon intensity among the firms in our sample between 2004 and 2016 decreased by around 50 percent, and our results suggest that import growth accounted for about a third of this decline. Exploring the mechanisms, we find evidence for both a technique effect and a product composition effect. Importing has a positive impact on productivity, scale of production, and abatement investments. It also encourages firms to focus more on their core products. We find no evidence for a pollution haven effect.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104004"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624001314/pdfft?md5=d1db05a07c37c19fa80674366e4c46d1&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624001314-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Costs of sovereign debt crises: Restructuring strategies and bank intermediation","authors":"Tamon Asonuma , Marcos Chamon , Aitor Erce , Akira Sasahara","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in the growth of GDP, investment, bank credit to the private sector and capital flows. Our empirical findings show that the intensity of these losses depends on two aspects: whether the restructuring preempts a default and the extent of the reliance of the country’s private sector on domestic bank credit. Post-default restructurings are associated with worse outcomes than restructurings that take place preemptively without missing payments and going into default. Much of that difference is driven by restructurings in countries with relatively large banking sectors, in particular during post-default episodes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104002"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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