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Trade, jobs, and worker welfare 贸易、就业和工人福利
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154
Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee
{"title":"Trade, jobs, and worker welfare","authors":"Erhan Artuc ,&nbsp;Paulo Bastos ,&nbsp;Eunhee Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements 重力的尾部：使用预期来量化经济一体化协议的贸易边际效应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145
Jeffrey H. Bergstrand , Matthew W. Clance , J.M.C. Santos Silva
{"title":"The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements","authors":"Jeffrey H. Bergstrand ,&nbsp;Matthew W. Clance ,&nbsp;J.M.C. Santos Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although there is evidence suggesting that the effects of trade liberalizations likely vary across the distribution of trade flows, trade economists have focused almost entirely on <em>conditional mean</em> estimates of their trade elasticities. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based <em>expectile regressions</em> to estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalizations across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be logged, accommodates a mass of observations at zero, and is easy to implement, allowing the estimation of gravity equations with the standard three-way fixed effects specification. Using the proposed estimator, we find systematic evidence that trade liberalizations have larger effects at the lower tail of the conditional distribution. We then use the proposed method to investigate the causes of this heterogeneity, and our results suggest that the success of trade liberalizations strongly depends on potential for expansions along the extensive margin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104145"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144865841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks 实际汇率和净贸易动态：金融和贸易冲击
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141
Marcos Mac Mullen , Soo Kyung Woo
{"title":"Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks","authors":"Marcos Mac Mullen ,&nbsp;Soo Kyung Woo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of the RER. We find that, while financial shocks are necessary to capture high frequency variation in the RER, trade shocks are essential for the lower frequency fluctuations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104141"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters 为什么不完全市场的开放经济模式的全球解决方案和地方解决方案不同？为什么这很重要
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142
Oliver de Groot , C. Bora Durdu , Enrique G. Mendoza
{"title":"Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters","authors":"Oliver de Groot ,&nbsp;C. Bora Durdu ,&nbsp;Enrique G. Mendoza","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities that make net foreign assets (NFA) “sticky,” causing them to differ sharply from global solutions in experiments altering precautionary savings (e.g., increasing income volatility, adding capital controls). Analytic and numerical results show that our findings are due to the near-unit-root nature of NFA under incomplete markets and imprecise solutions of their autocorrelation. These findings extend to a Sudden Stops model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint. In addition, quasi-linear methods yield smaller financial premia and macroeconomic responses when the constraint binds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104142"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia 量化宽松与安全资产供给：来自国际债券安全溢价的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146
Jens H.E. Christensen , Nikola N. Mirkov , Xin Zhang
{"title":"Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia","authors":"Jens H.E. Christensen ,&nbsp;Nikola N. Mirkov ,&nbsp;Xin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases in the 2015–2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all four countries, highlighting an international spillover channel through which QE programs reduce bond safety premia by expanding the supply of truly safe assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104146"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144865842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data 英国脱欧对劳动力需求的实际影响：来自企业层面数据的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129
Hang Do , Kiet Tuan Duong , Luu Duc Toan Huynh , Nam T. Vu
{"title":"The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data","authors":"Hang Do ,&nbsp;Kiet Tuan Duong ,&nbsp;Luu Duc Toan Huynh ,&nbsp;Nam T. Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&amp;D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade exposure, either with or outside the EU, can help alleviate such negative effects of Brexit. Such results highlight the role of trade exposure and the expectation channel, and support the hypothesis that firms prioritize innovations in response to Brexit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104129"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development 中国在印度的公路：交通基础设施对经济发展的影响
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140
Simon Alder
{"title":"Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development","authors":"Simon Alder","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India and China followed different strategies in the design of their recent highway networks. India first focused on connecting the four largest economic centers of the country, the Golden Quadrilateral, while China had the explicit strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of transport infrastructure in India based on a general equilibrium trade framework. I compare the effect of the Golden Quadrilateral to a counterfactual network that connects India’s intermediate-sized cities. To construct the counterfactual network, I propose a heuristic network design algorithm to maximize aggregate real income net of road construction costs in the general equilibrium model, and I show that the heuristic algorithm provides a good approximation of the optimal network. The results suggest that the actual network led to sizable aggregate gains but unequal effects across regions. The income-maximizing counterfactual network is substantially larger than the actual Indian network, would imply further aggregate gains, and would benefit the lagging regions of India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104140"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy? 全球化是否改变了美国货币政策的国际传导？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139
Maximilian Boeck , Lorenzo Mori
{"title":"Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?","authors":"Maximilian Boeck ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Mori","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing – a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysis and counterfactual simulations suggest that the estimated amplification of the spillover effects over time has been primarily driven by the surge in trade integration, while rising financial integration has contributed only modestly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104139"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multinational production, technology diffusion, and economic growth 跨国生产、技术扩散和经济增长
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104137
Sheng Cai , Wei Xiang
{"title":"Multinational production, technology diffusion, and economic growth","authors":"Sheng Cai ,&nbsp;Wei Xiang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this framework, MP serves as the channel of international idea diffusion: when firms operate in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. By embedding this mechanism into a quantitative model of trade and MP, we characterize the evolution of bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and technology dynamics across 54 economies. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reduction in MP costs boosted economic growth, especially in developing economies. We show that a 10-year MP sanction on Russia would reduce the welfare by 9.11%, although the immediate effect is small. We find that increasing outward MP costs for U.S. firms has immediate positive wage effects but negative growth implications. Additionally, a 10% increase in U.S. inward trade costs results in a 0.2% decline in the country’s present value of welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104137"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame? 高企的公共债务：应该归咎于冲击还是自由裁量的财政政策？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130
Nikhil Patel, Adrian Peralta-Alva
{"title":"High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame?","authors":"Nikhil Patel,&nbsp;Adrian Peralta-Alva","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that shocks to GDP growth and interest rates collectively account for more than half of the observed annual variation in debt to GDP ratios, while discretionary fiscal policy changes contribute less than 20%. Our analysis also reveals that the primary balance multiplier on GDP is minimal. We reconcile our findings with existing literature by demonstrating that previous discrepancies arise largely from differences in shock identification methods, but also on account of cross-country heterogeneity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104130"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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