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Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation 俄罗斯的反制裁和走私：利用结构重力估算进行取证
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014
Vladimir Tyazhelnikov , John Romalis
{"title":"Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation","authors":"Vladimir Tyazhelnikov ,&nbsp;John Romalis","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade and other economic sanctions are a common foreign policy instrument, but their imposition may induce smuggling. We develop and implement procedures to study smuggling after the food embargo imposed by Russia on Western countries after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We construct predicted trade flows for the post-sanctions period using an estimated structural general equilibrium gravity model with many industry sectors and compare those predictions with actual trade flows. We identify a substantial value of suspicious trade flows which we associate with smuggling; especially importing banned goods through third countries such as Belarus. The structural gravity model systematically under-predicts trade volumes for country–product combinations used as channels for smuggling of the banned goods. We identify a quantity of smuggling equivalent to approximately 11 to 17 percent of the pre-embargo trade flows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104014"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Immigrants, legal status, and illegal trade 移民、合法身份和非法贸易
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016
Brett A. McCully
{"title":"Immigrants, legal status, and illegal trade","authors":"Brett A. McCully","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Due to the absence of legal contracts and the challenge of finding trading partners in an illegal market, traffickers may rely on co-ethnic networks to facilitate trade. In this paper, I use novel microdata on the universe of large illegal drug confiscations in Spain to provide the first causal estimates of how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. I find that immigrants increase both illegal drugs imported from and exported to their origin country, with irregular immigrants raising illegal drug imports. Doubling the number of immigrants from an origin country raises the likelihood of illegal drug imports from that country by 8 percentage points. I find suggestive evidence that granting legal status to immigrants reduces illegal drug imports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104016"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign competition and innovation 外国竞争和创新
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007
Elhanan Helpman
{"title":"Foreign competition and innovation","authors":"Elhanan Helpman","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical studies have found that enhanced foreign competition can encourage or discourage innovation. To address this relationship, I examine a market structure in which a small number of large multi-product oligopolists compete with a large number of small single-product firms in the same industry. The single-product firms are short-lived while the multi-product firms live forever, and the large firms invest in innovation in order to enlarge their product spans. All firms export. I show that an increase in the competitiveness of foreign firms can increase or reduce innovation efforts of a large multi-product firm. Moreover, changes in the incentives to innovate can be different for more-productive and less-productive oligopolists. As a result, aggregate sectoral innovation may rise or decline, depending on the productivity distribution of the oligopolists. I also show that changes in short-term operating profits may not be aligned with changes in the incentives to innovate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104007"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions 空间均衡：两个地区的案例
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008
Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Gary Lyn , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
{"title":"Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions","authors":"Konstantin Kucheryavyy ,&nbsp;Gary Lyn ,&nbsp;Andrés Rodríguez-Clare","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we characterize the set of equilibria in a generalized version of the canonical two-region economic geography model that nests the class of models in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) as well as Krugman (1991) and features an input–output loop. We provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness of equilibria that — in contrast to the well-know result in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) — allow for positive agglomeration externalities, which concentrate economic activity, even in the absence of congestion effects, which disperse it, and highlight the key role played by three additional parameters: the <em>trade elasticity</em>, which regulates the strength of the dispersion force associated with the decline in the terms of trade caused by migration into a region; <em>trade costs</em>, which weaken this dispersion force by limiting trade across regions; and the importance of the <em>agricultural sector</em>, which pushes against agglomeration forces in manufacturing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104008"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains? 美国贸易政策是否在重塑全球供应链？
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011
Caroline Freund , Aaditya Mattoo , Alen Mulabdic , Michele Ruta
{"title":"Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?","authors":"Caroline Freund ,&nbsp;Aaditya Mattoo ,&nbsp;Alen Mulabdic ,&nbsp;Michele Ruta","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 % to 16 % as a result of US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large, developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. In strategic industries, countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated in China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. There is no consistent evidence of reshoring but evidence of nearshoring to border nations. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of directly imported goods to the US in 2022.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104011"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The network origins of trade comovement 贸易关联的网络起源
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010
Justas Dainauskas
{"title":"The network origins of trade comovement","authors":"Justas Dainauskas","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I develop a production network model of the world economy that features <em>Transcendental Logarithmic</em> (a.k.a. translog) aggregators of varieties. This gives rise to variable substitution elasticities that consistent with the evidence are inversely related to the importer expenditure shares per exporter at the country-sector level. I quantify the model using data for 1970–2018 from 19 OECD economies and 30 sectors. Compared to the analogous constant elasticity version of the model, I find that the translog model amplifies international shock transmission between major trade partners and attenuates transmission elsewhere, which to an extent resolves the “trade comovement puzzle”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104010"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign risk and intangible investment 主权风险和无形投资
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009
Minjie Deng , Chang Liu
{"title":"Sovereign risk and intangible investment","authors":"Minjie Deng ,&nbsp;Chang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures the output and TFP losses from sovereign risk, considering firm-level intangible investment. Using Italian firm-level data, we show that firms reallocated from intangible assets to tangible assets during the 2011–2012 Italian sovereign debt crisis. This asset reallocation is more pronounced among small firms and high-leverage firms. This reallocation affects aggregate output and TFP. To explain the reallocation pattern and quantify the output and TFP losses, we build a sovereign default model incorporating firm intangible investment. In our model, sovereign risk deteriorates bank balance sheets, disrupting banks’ ability to finance firms. Firms with greater external financing needs are more exposed to sovereign risk. Facing tightening financial constraints, firms shift their resources towards tangibles because they can be used as collateral. We find that elevated sovereign risk explains 45% of the observed output losses and 31% of the TFP losses in Italy from 2011 to 2016.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104009"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms 贸易自由化与劳动力垄断：来自中国企业的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006
Illenin O. Kondo , Yao Amber Li , Wei Qian
{"title":"Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms","authors":"Illenin O. Kondo ,&nbsp;Yao Amber Li ,&nbsp;Wei Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that larger input tariff reductions were associated with lower labor markdowns in China, especially for skill-intensive firms. Guided by a stylized model of equilibrium labor market power, we leverage differences in the aggregate labor supply dynamics across labor markets – such as regional variations in China’s contemporaneous college expansion reforms – to that show trade-induced labor markdown decreased more in labor markets with more labor supply growth. Our estimates suggest that lower labor markdowns due to input trade liberalization offset China’s aggregate labor share decline by almost one-half percentage point in the early 2000s.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104006"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical risk perceptions 地缘政治风险认知
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005
Yevheniia Bondarenko , Vivien Lewis , Matthias Rottner , Yves Schüler
{"title":"Geopolitical risk perceptions","authors":"Yevheniia Bondarenko ,&nbsp;Vivien Lewis ,&nbsp;Matthias Rottner ,&nbsp;Yves Schüler","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104005"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public debt and household inflation expectations 公共债务和家庭通胀预期
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003
Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri
{"title":"Public debt and household inflation expectations","authors":"Francesco Grigoli ,&nbsp;Damiano Sandri","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal authorities plays a more limited role. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects but not with a greater risk of monetary finance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104003"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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