Commodity prices and the US dollar

IF 4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114

Daniel M. Rees

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States’ shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.

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商品价格和美元

在新冠疫情爆发后，大宗商品价格上涨与美元走强并行不悖。这与大宗商品价格与美元之间的通常关系形成鲜明对比。本文提供的证据表明，后covid相关模式在未来可能会变得更加普遍。这一结论基于两个观察结果。首先，美元与美国的贸易条件有着密切而稳定的关系。其次，美国从石油净进口国转变为石油净出口国意味着，目前较高的大宗商品价格往往会提高而不是降低美国的贸易条件。大宗商品价格与美元关系的变化将对大宗商品出口国和进口国都产生影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.