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Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization 利用股市反应推断贸易自由化的风险敞口
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000
Andrew Greenland , Mihai Ion , John Lopresti , Peter K. Schott
{"title":"Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization","authors":"Andrew Greenland ,&nbsp;Mihai Ion ,&nbsp;John Lopresti ,&nbsp;Peter K. Schott","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service-sector responses and reveals dramatically different outcomes among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104000"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The small open economy in a generalized gravity model 广义引力模型中的小型开放经济
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997
Svetlana Demidova , Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Takumi Naito , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
{"title":"The small open economy in a generalized gravity model","authors":"Svetlana Demidova ,&nbsp;Konstantin Kucheryavyy ,&nbsp;Takumi Naito ,&nbsp;Andrés Rodríguez-Clare","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the new trade literature it is defined instead as one that takes foreign-good prices and export demand schedules as given. We develop a gravity model that nests all its standard microfoundations and show how to take the limit so that an economy that becomes infinitesimally small behaves like a SOE. We then derive comparative statics and optimal policy for the SOE. Ignoring standard tax indeterminacies, optimal policy is characterized by export taxes and import tariffs equal to the (inverse) foreign demand and supply elasticities, respectively, and employment subsidies determined by the scale elasticity (under perfect competition) or markups (under monopolistic competition).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103997"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624001247/pdfft?md5=f2b6581e6fa0675c6bf07d0896a921c5&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624001247-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142128868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does democracy shape international merger activity? 民主会影响国际兼并活动吗？
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103995
Muhammad Farooq Ahmad , Thomas Lambert , José M. Martín-Flores , Arthur Romec
{"title":"Does democracy shape international merger activity?","authors":"Muhammad Farooq Ahmad ,&nbsp;Thomas Lambert ,&nbsp;José M. Martín-Flores ,&nbsp;Arthur Romec","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103995","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103995","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Democracy matters for international merger activity. Using a sample of 101,834 cross-border deals announced between 1985 and 2018, we show that merger flows predominantly involve acquirers from more democratic countries than their targets. This result is primarily driven by a “pull” factor: firms in countries with weaker democratic institutions attract more cross-border deals. We find evidence of bonding as the key mechanism behind this effect. The democracy effect is stronger when target countries have weaker corporate governance standards. Furthermore, target abnormal returns around deal announcements increase with the difference in democracy between acquirer and target countries. Importantly, differences in investor protection or economic development do not directly explain the democracy effect. Combined, our findings imply that democracy is a fundamental, yet previously overlooked, determinant of cross-border mergers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103995"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624001223/pdfft?md5=a362b3858089ab125b23c594bec8a1ef&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624001223-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142128869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Common trade exposure and business cycle comovement 共同的贸易风险和商业周期关联
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103998
Oscar Avila-Montealegre , Carter Mix
{"title":"Common trade exposure and business cycle comovement","authors":"Oscar Avila-Montealegre ,&nbsp;Carter Mix","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103998","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103998","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Bilateral trade is considered a key driver of business-cycle transmission, as countries with higher bilateral trade have more correlated business cycles. We show, however, that when we account for the common trade exposure of a country pair to similar foreign cycles, the effect of bilateral trade on comovement falls sharply. Furthermore, common trade exposure is also a robust predictor of comovement. We conclude that trade is indeed a driver of business-cycle transmission, but often through common exposure to foreign cycles rather than just bilateral linkages. Finally, we consider the implications of these empirical results for the “trade-comovement puzzle.”</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103998"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142099406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-country price dispersion: Retail network or national border? 跨国价格分散：零售网络还是国家边界？
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103996
Teresa Messner , Fabio Rumler , Georg Strasser
{"title":"Cross-country price dispersion: Retail network or national border?","authors":"Teresa Messner ,&nbsp;Fabio Rumler ,&nbsp;Georg Strasser","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Why do prices differ among regions without significant trade frictions, such as the euro area? This study examines the impact of a national border on grocery prices in the economically and culturally integrated German–Austrian border region. Based on retail transactions from a large household panel, we analyse price differences of identical products sold within a narrow band along the border. We show that even retailers operating in both countries charge different prices for identical products on each side of the border. Over all products, prices are on average more than 14% higher on the Austrian side. The underlying absolute price differences average to around 20%, but vary over products and time, suggesting limits to arbitrage in cross-border shopping. This study demonstrates that even in highly integrated areas, national borders continue to matter for retail pricing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103996"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142099407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Clustered sovereign defaults 集群式主权违约
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103999
Anurag Singh
{"title":"Clustered sovereign defaults","authors":"Anurag Singh","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Clustered sovereign default is a recurring phenomenon, but there is a lack of quantitative models to study it. This paper introduces a quantitative framework aimed at untangling latent shocks and examining the mechanisms that precipitate clustered defaults. The model incorporates financial frictions into a sovereign default framework and accommodates global shocks that impact both borrowing countries and lenders. By jointly estimating structural parameters governing the output process of multiple countries, the global shocks are extracted. The framework’s ability to effectively capture multiple crisis episodes, such as the 1980s Latin American debt crisis, validates the joint robustness of the model and the estimation process. The framework uncovers the crucial role of global transitory shocks in producing clustered defaults, particularly when convex default costs are present. Additionally, contrary to what is commonly believed, the framework shows that the Volcker interest rate hike was not a decisive factor in the 1980s clustered default.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103999"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142086818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The political economy of currency unions 货币联盟的政治经济学
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103991
Kai Arvai
{"title":"The political economy of currency unions","authors":"Kai Arvai","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103991","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103991","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How can monetary and fiscal policy sustain a currency union when member states have an exit option? This paper derives an interest rate rule that features state-dependent country weights with which the central bank can prevent a break-up. A simulation reveals that this policy rule lacks firepower and can only extend the lifetime of the union for a while. While monetary policy is more potent in unions with more member states or setups with local currency pricing, it is still true that even a simple fiscal union with lump-sum transfers is better suited to prevent a break-up. Environments with lower risk sharing, the ZLB or wage rigidity make monetary policy even less effective.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103991"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142049843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dollar and government bond liquidity: Evidence from Korea 美元与政府债券流动性：韩国的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103992
Jieun Lee
{"title":"Dollar and government bond liquidity: Evidence from Korea","authors":"Jieun Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103992","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103992","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using unique tick-by-tick data from an exchange, this paper examines the relationship between the US dollar and liquidity in the Korean government (Treasury) bond market. We find that a strong US dollar deteriorates the Treasury market's liquidity by increasing the bid-ask spread and the price impact and lowering market depth. The effects of fluctuations in the broad US dollar index on Treasury market liquidity become more pronounced when funding liquidity conditions are tighter, when banks' total capital ratio is lower with greater foreign currency risk, or when there is a larger sell-off of Korea Treasury bonds by foreign investors. The empirical evidence supports the financial channel of exchange rates affecting Treasury market liquidity. In particular, a strong dollar as a barometer of global financial conditions is likely to limit the market intermediation capacity of emerging market dealers and thus tighten emerging market conditions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103992"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142040619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation 新的曙光消逝贸易、劳动力与英国脱欧汇率贬值
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103993
Rui Costa , Swati Dhingra , Stephen Machin
{"title":"New dawn fades: Trade, labour and the Brexit exchange rate depreciation","authors":"Rui Costa ,&nbsp;Swati Dhingra ,&nbsp;Stephen Machin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103993","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103993","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper studies consequences of the large exchange rate depreciation occurring when the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union. Sterling plummeted, recording the biggest one-day depreciation of any of the world's four major currencies since Bretton Woods. The prospect of Brexit happening generated sizable differences in how much sterling depreciated against different currencies. Coupled with pre-referendum cross-country trade patterns, this generated variations in exchange rates facing businesses in different industries. The paper offers evidence of a cost shock from the prices of intermediate imports rising by more in higher depreciation industries, but with no revenue offset from exports. Workers were impacted by these increased cost pressures, not in terms of job loss but through relative real wage declines in higher depreciation, larger cost shock industries. This resulted in an aggregate fall in real wage growth of 3 to 3.6% cumulatively over the three years after the referendum.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103993"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002219962400120X/pdfft?md5=58e164ef331887626728757667041e2e&pid=1-s2.0-S002219962400120X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142099405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fly the unfriendly skies: The role of transport costs in gravity models of trade 飞上不友好的天空运输成本在贸易引力模型中的作用
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103994
Tibor Besedeš , Jing Chu , Antu Panini Murshid
{"title":"Fly the unfriendly skies: The role of transport costs in gravity models of trade","authors":"Tibor Besedeš ,&nbsp;Jing Chu ,&nbsp;Antu Panini Murshid","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103994","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103994","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We exploit exogenous shocks to flight distances over time to estimate the distance effect in airborne trade within panel regressions. We find a negative distance effect, which we interpret as evidence of a link between transportation costs and airborne trade. Notably, this relationship is driven almost entirely by changes at the extensive margin. Specifically, trade in HS 6 product categories with intermittent trading histories becomes dormant when flight distances increase. Conversely, the intensive margin of trade remains largely unaffected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103994"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142086819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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