Robin Kaiji Gong , Yao Amber Li , Kalina Manova , Stephen Teng Sun
{"title":"Tickets to the global market: First US patent award and Chinese firm exports","authors":"Robin Kaiji Gong , Yao Amber Li , Kalina Manova , Stephen Teng Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. This effect operates only in small part through market protection for technologically patent-related products in the US, and is largely driven by expansion in other markets. The response across destinations and products reveals that a US patent award signals the Chinese firm’s capacity to produce high-quality products and credibility to honor contracts, mitigating information frictions in international trade. There is little evidence for the relaxation of financial constraints or the promotion of follow-on innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104124"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio
{"title":"Reprint of: Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time","authors":"Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104136"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reprint of: Inequality and optimal monetary policy in the open economy","authors":"Sushant Acharya , Edouard Challe","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104132","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104132","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOE-HANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the ”open-economy divine coincidence” result of Galí and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, inefficient fluctuations in consumption inequality generate monetary policy tradeoffs. Under plausible calibrations for the trade elasticities, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and the cyclicality of income risk, the central bank stabilizes output and the exchange rate more than in SOE-RANK.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104132"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Do investor differences impact monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets?","authors":"Ester Faia , Karen K. Lewis , Haonan Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their portfolios away from EME, while more passive, long term investors such as insurance funds and banks exhibit no significant reaction on average. For active investors, the reallocation out of EME appears stronger under synchronized monetary tightening between the Fed and the ECB. However, these investors may even inject more capital to EME securities when the monetary tightening surprises contain positive news about the Euro Area economy. Issuers’ monetary–fiscal stability may explain the heterogeneous impact of these spillovers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104100"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Introduction: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2024","authors":"Jeffrey Frankel , Hélène Rey","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104147","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104147"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty","authors":"Hamid Firooz , Sylvain Leduc , Zheng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentives for firms to reduce exposure to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor productivity and facilitates reshoring, but it can also displace jobs. Furthermore, automation poses a threat that weakens the bargaining power of unskilled workers in wage negotiations, depressing their wages and raising the skill premium and wage inequality. Our model predictions are in line with industry-level empirical evidence.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104091"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Drivers of the global financial cycle","authors":"John Rogers , Bo Sun , Wenbin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building on literature focused on the role of U.S. monetary policy in driving the global financial cycle, we quantify the relative importance of different shocks in an estimation framework that simultaneously identifies multiple shocks without timing or sign restrictions. Our analysis reveals significant roles for (i) U.S. corporate bond spreads, particularly the excess bond premium component, (ii) U.S. bank leverage, and (iii) the U.S. term premium. We additionally document a feedback loop that leads to significant amplification effects: widening U.S. corporate bond spreads trigger broad declines in global asset prices, which in turn lead to further tightening of U.S. spreads.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104088"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marco Bellifemine , Adrien Couturier , Rustam Jamilov
{"title":"Monetary unions with heterogeneous fiscal space","authors":"Marco Bellifemine , Adrien Couturier , Rustam Jamilov","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a multi-country Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model of a monetary union with ex-ante heterogeneity in legacy public debt across member states. We calibrate the model to the euro area and show that, following symmetric aggregate shocks, the systematic monetary policy reaction induces heterogeneous national outcomes, driven by differences in fiscal space. This generates a trade-off between union-wide macroeconomic stabilization and cross-country synchronization of economic activity for the central bank. We characterize a possibility frontier between union-wide inflation stability and cross-country synchronization, which is traced out by varying the degree of the central bank’s hawkishness towards inflation. We study the role of deficit caps, fiscal and political unions, and augmented Taylor rules as instruments to navigate the stabilization–synchronization trade-off.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104092"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Elton Beqiraj , Qingqing Cao , Ralph De Haas , Raoul Minetti
{"title":"Reprint of: Global banking and macroeconomic stability. Liquidity, control, and monitoring","authors":"Elton Beqiraj , Qingqing Cao , Ralph De Haas , Raoul Minetti","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how the organizational structure of global banks shapes their impact on macroeconomic stability. We develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which global banks can either delegate loan monitoring to local affiliates or exert control over affiliates’ monitoring activities, hiring loan officers centrally. Moreover, we allow global banks to transfer liquidity between parents and local affiliates through internal capital markets. We show that global banks with a centralized business model (with loan officers hired centrally by the parent and an intense use of internal capital markets) help mitigate the impact of financial shocks on the host economy. However, they may become a destabilizing factor following real shocks that hit the quality of firms’ investments. The model predictions are consistent with bank-level evidence from a large set of countries that host global bank affiliates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104133"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reprint of: Regional trade policy uncertainty","authors":"Céline Poilly , Fabien Tripier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104134","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104134","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, we first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in U.S. states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We then build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior is the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"156 ","pages":"Article 104134"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}