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Banking complexity in the global economy
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104055
Raoul Minetti , Giacomo Romanini , Oren Ziv
{"title":"Banking complexity in the global economy","authors":"Raoul Minetti ,&nbsp;Giacomo Romanini ,&nbsp;Oren Ziv","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104055","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104055","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International lending flows are often intermediated through banking hubs and complex multi-national routing. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where global banks choose the path of direct or indirect lending through partner institutions in multiple countries. We show how conflating locational loan flows with ultimate lending biases results both by attributing ultimate lending to banking hubs, and by missing ultimate lending that occurs indirectly via third countries. We next study the effects of global banking complexity. Indirect lending allows countries to bypass shocked lending routes via alternative countries; however, it dilutes their ability to diversify sources of funds after shocks. The quantitative analysis reveals that banking complexity can exacerbate credit instability when countries feature heterogeneous banking efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104055"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045
Pavel Solís
{"title":"Term premia and credit risk in emerging markets: The role of U.S. monetary policy","authors":"Pavel Solís","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy transmits to the sovereign yields of emerging markets without ignoring credit risk. To quantify the effects, I first identify different types of surprises in U.S. monetary policy using intraday data, and then propose a novel (three-part) decomposition of emerging market yields that accounts for credit risk. I find that surprises in U.S. monetary policy lead to a reassessment of policy rate expectations and a repricing of interest rate and credit risks in emerging markets. Specifically, investors expect monetary authorities in emerging markets to follow the monetary stance of the U.S. central bank rather than counteract it, unconventional U.S. monetary policies transmit to the term premia in emerging markets similarly to the U.S. term premium, and the sovereign credit risk in emerging markets responds to changes in U.S. monetary policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104045"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The cleanup of US manufacturing through pollution offshoring
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046
Jaerim Choi , Jay Hyun , Gueyon Kim , Ziho Park
{"title":"The cleanup of US manufacturing through pollution offshoring","authors":"Jaerim Choi ,&nbsp;Jay Hyun ,&nbsp;Gueyon Kim ,&nbsp;Ziho Park","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the role of offshoring in understanding long-run environmental impacts of trade liberalization and the cleanup of US manufacturing. Leveraging establishment-level pollution emissions and business activity data and a change in US trade policy toward China in the early 2000s, we show that US establishments decrease toxic emissions in response to a reduction in trade policy uncertainty. Emission abatement is mainly driven by a decline in pollution emission intensity. We provide comprehensive evidence that highlights the role of offshoring: US manufacturers, especially those that emit pollutants intensely, source from abroad and establish more subsidiaries in China following the event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104046"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042
Gita Gopinath , Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas , Andrea F. Presbitero , Petia Topalova
{"title":"Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?","authors":"Gita Gopinath ,&nbsp;Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas ,&nbsp;Andrea F. Presbitero ,&nbsp;Petia Topalova","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, we provide new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines and compare it to the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade, FDI, and portfolio flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc. While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104042"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International trade and the allocation of capital within firms
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104023
S. Doerr , D. Marin , D. Suverato , T. Verdier
{"title":"International trade and the allocation of capital within firms","authors":"S. Doerr ,&nbsp;D. Marin ,&nbsp;D. Suverato ,&nbsp;T. Verdier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces an internal capital market into a two-factor model of multi-segment firms. It features empire building by managers and informational frictions within the organization. The headquarters knows less about a segment’s true cost than its divisional managers do, so managers can over-report their costs and receive more capital than optimal. Our novel theory, which enables us to endogenize the cost structure of multi-segment firms, shows that international trade imposes discipline on divisional managers and improves the capital allocation between divisions, thereby lowering the conglomerate discount. The theory can explain why exporters exhibit a lower conglomerate discount than non-exporters. We exploit the China shock as an exogenous change to competition to confirm the model’s predictions with data on US companies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104023"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043
Mauricio Calani , Paula Margaretic , David Moreno
{"title":"Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects","authors":"Mauricio Calani ,&nbsp;Paula Margaretic ,&nbsp;David Moreno","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper exploits the exogenous changes of destination/origin-specific trade uncertainty (TU) to investigate the direct and spillover effects of TU on firms’ foreign-trade operations and credit outcomes. Using transaction-level data of Chilean firms and banks, we first show that increasing TU dampens export growth through a deterioration of firms’ working capital. This is especially true when exports are mainly financed by cash-in-advance, a payment mode that entails shorter and less permanent relationships between firms. Second, we find that increases in TU induce a bank-firm portfolio redistribution away from small firms toward large importers and firms involved in the global value chain (GVC). Our results are consistent with a risk-mitigating channel from banks that grant larger loans to firms that are perceived as relatively less risky during periods of high trade tensions. This way, TU shocks spill over to other firms not initially affected by TU through the bank credit market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104043"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal trade policy with international technology diffusion
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038
Yan Bai , Keyu Jin , Dan Lu , Hanxi Wang
{"title":"Optimal trade policy with international technology diffusion","authors":"Yan Bai ,&nbsp;Keyu Jin ,&nbsp;Dan Lu ,&nbsp;Hanxi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study optimal dynamic trade policies in an Eaton–Kortum model with technology diffusion through trade. Trade affects technology by determining the distribution from which potential producers draw their insights. Our theory shows that optimal policies capture dynamic motives for a country to alter global technology. These policies take into account selection effects and country endowments that affect the degree and quality of diffusion. We provide explicit formulas showing that a country should subsidize imports that raise domestic learning quality and reduce export taxes when higher foreign productivity benefits the home country and increased exports improve foreign learning. We quantify these dynamic policies and their welfare implications using cross-country data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104038"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Percolation of Knowledge across Space
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026
Pierre Cotterlaz , Arthur Guillouzouic
{"title":"The Percolation of Knowledge across Space","authors":"Pierre Cotterlaz ,&nbsp;Arthur Guillouzouic","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows is sizable and has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms’ network of knowledge sources expands through existing knowledge sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104026"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028
Hamid Firooz
{"title":"The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets","authors":"Hamid Firooz","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade <em>in frictional labor markets</em>? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise almost three times more than in a model with constant markups (in the steady state). The presence of labor market frictions makes the pro-competitive gains from trade liberalization negative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104028"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
Jean-Charles Bricongne , Juan Carluccio , Lionel Fontagné , Guillaume Gaulier , Sebastian Stumpner
{"title":"From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises","authors":"Jean-Charles Bricongne ,&nbsp;Juan Carluccio ,&nbsp;Lionel Fontagné ,&nbsp;Guillaume Gaulier ,&nbsp;Sebastian Stumpner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters’ higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104037"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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