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Fly the unfriendly skies: The role of transport costs in gravity models of trade 飞上不友好的天空运输成本在贸易引力模型中的作用
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103994
Tibor Besedeš , Jing Chu , Antu Panini Murshid
{"title":"Fly the unfriendly skies: The role of transport costs in gravity models of trade","authors":"Tibor Besedeš ,&nbsp;Jing Chu ,&nbsp;Antu Panini Murshid","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103994","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103994","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We exploit exogenous shocks to flight distances over time to estimate the distance effect in airborne trade within panel regressions. We find a negative distance effect, which we interpret as evidence of a link between transportation costs and airborne trade. Notably, this relationship is driven almost entirely by changes at the extensive margin. Specifically, trade in HS 6 product categories with intermittent trading histories becomes dormant when flight distances increase. Conversely, the intensive margin of trade remains largely unaffected.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103994"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142086819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How important are trend shocks? The role of the debt elasticity of interest rate 趋势冲击有多重要？债务利率弹性的作用
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103990
Yin Germaschewski, Jaroslav Horvath, Loris Rubini
{"title":"How important are trend shocks? The role of the debt elasticity of interest rate","authors":"Yin Germaschewski,&nbsp;Jaroslav Horvath,&nbsp;Loris Rubini","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study how financial frictions affect the importance of trend productivity shocks for macroeconomic fluctuations. Using long-run data from 17 small open economies (SOEs), we compare two variants of a workhorse SOE real business cycle model featuring a debt-elastic interest rate (DEIR), a measure of financial frictions. The first variant estimates the DEIR parameter, while the second fixes it to 0.001, effectively abstracting from financial frictions. On average, ignoring financial frictions doubles the contribution of trend shocks to output fluctuations. This suggests that a proper assessment of the quantitative effects of trend shocks requires reasonable DEIR values.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103990"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142011726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A tale of tier 3 cities 三线城市的故事
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103989
Kenneth S. Rogoff , Yuanchen Yang
{"title":"A tale of tier 3 cities","authors":"Kenneth S. Rogoff ,&nbsp;Yuanchen Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103989","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103989","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>China's outsized real estate sector has long been a key engine of growth. However, with decades of construction at break-neck speeds having produced a massive increase in the quantity and quality of China's housing stock, the question arises as to whether diminishing returns are beginning to set in. At the same time, there is the question of whether real estate has been a major driver of today's high levels of local government debt, which may create heightened financial vulnerabilities. We investigate these questions using a new database that includes city level estimates of China's housing stock. Our formal statistical results suggest that real estate is indeed running into diminishing returns to growth while at the same time being a significant driver of local government debt, with both effects being driven mainly by China's smaller and less prosperous tier 3 cities (which nevertheless account for 60% of GDP).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103989"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142044572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From carry trades to trade credit: Financial intermediation by non-financial corporations 从套利交易到贸易信贷：非金融企业的金融中介活动
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103988
Bryan Hardy , Felipe Saffie
{"title":"From carry trades to trade credit: Financial intermediation by non-financial corporations","authors":"Bryan Hardy ,&nbsp;Felipe Saffie","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use detailed firm-level data from Mexico to document that non-financial corporations engage in carry trades by borrowing in foreign currency (FX) and lending in domestic currency, largely in the form of trade credit, accumulating currency risk in the process. Firms are more active in carry-trades when FX borrowing is relatively cheaper and build currency risk by accumulating peso assets. We use the 2009 Mexican peso depreciation to show that firms that were more active in carry trades experienced larger reductions in investment. Nevertheless, their extension of trade credit remained stable, insulating their trading partners from their balance sheet exposure to the shock.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103988"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FDI and superstar spillovers: Evidence from firm-to-firm transactions 外国直接投资和超级明星溢出效应：公司对公司交易的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103972
Mary Amiti , Cédric Duprez , Jozef Konings , John Van Reenen
{"title":"FDI and superstar spillovers: Evidence from firm-to-firm transactions","authors":"Mary Amiti ,&nbsp;Cédric Duprez ,&nbsp;Jozef Konings ,&nbsp;John Van Reenen","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103972","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103972","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using firm-to-firm transactions, we show that starting to supply a ‘superstar’ firm (large domestic firms, exporters and multinationals) boosts productivity by 8% after three years. Placebos on starting relationships with smaller firms and novel identification strategies support a causal interpretation of “superstar spillovers”. Consistent with a model of technology transfer, we find bigger treatment effects from technology-intensive superstars and also falls in markups (in order to win superstar contracts). We also show that firms that start supplying superstar firms enjoy a ‘dating agency’ effect — an increase in the number of new buyers that is particularly strong within the superstar firm’s network. Taken together, the results suggest an important role for raising productivity through superstars’ supply chains regardless of multinational status.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103972"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624000990/pdfft?md5=a06cd08dda04bbbaaa593ad6543a5edf&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624000990-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial crises and the global supply network: Evidence from multinational enterprises 金融危机与全球供应网络：来自跨国企业的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103983
Sergi Basco , Giulia Felice , Bruno Merlevede , Martí Mestieri
{"title":"Financial crises and the global supply network: Evidence from multinational enterprises","authors":"Sergi Basco ,&nbsp;Giulia Felice ,&nbsp;Bruno Merlevede ,&nbsp;Martí Mestieri","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103983","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103983","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper empirically examines the effects of financial crises on the organization of production of multinational enterprises. We construct a panel of European multinational networks from 2003 through 2015. We compute a multinational-specific shock based on the geographical structure of the network and the extent of the financial crisis in the countries belonging to the network. We document that multinationals facing a larger shock to their network experience lower growth in their number of affiliates and a deterioration in parents’ performance. This adjustment to the financial crisis is accounted for by multinationals with initially more leveraged parents, and it is exacerbated in networks more dependent on external financing. Moreover, initially more leveraged affiliates are more likely to be dropped from a multinational network. These findings lend support to financial frictions shaping multinational activity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103983"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141936734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Escaping the trade war: Finance and relational supply chains in the adjustment to trade policy shocks 逃离贸易战：适应贸易政策冲击的金融和关系供应链
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103987
Felipe Benguria , Felipe Saffie
{"title":"Escaping the trade war: Finance and relational supply chains in the adjustment to trade policy shocks","authors":"Felipe Benguria ,&nbsp;Felipe Saffie","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impact of the 2018–2019 trade war on total US exports depends on the direct effect of foreign retaliatory tariffs as well as on the ability of US exporters to reorganize global supply chains and redirect exports to other markets, away from retaliating countries. We document that the sharp decline in US exports to retaliating countries was compensated by a gradual increase in exports to other markets. We then develop a model of export reallocation to study the role of financial constraints and the persistence or stickiness of trade relationships as underlying mechanisms shaping both the direct impact of retaliatory tariffs and the extent of the reallocation toward alternative markets. In line with the predictions of the model, we find that in industries with high leverage, Chinese retaliatory tariffs led to a stronger decline in US exports to China but a larger increase in exports to the rest of the world. We find a similar pattern among industries with less persistent trade relationships. Finally, we document that other potential mechanisms do not appear to be economically and/or statistically significant in shaping the response to tariffs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103987"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141960922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The widening of cross-currency basis: When increased FX swap demand meets limits of arbitrage 交叉货币基差扩大：当外汇掉期需求增加遇到套利限制时
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103984
Nadav Ben Zeev , Daniel Nathan
{"title":"The widening of cross-currency basis: When increased FX swap demand meets limits of arbitrage","authors":"Nadav Ben Zeev ,&nbsp;Daniel Nathan","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines customer demand-side factors that affect deviation from covered interest rate parity (CIP) with respect to the dollar (<em>i.e.</em>, cross-currency basis), particularly when arbitrageurs are constrained. Using novel detailed daily transaction-level data on the universe of Israeli institutional investors (IIs), we employ a granular instrumental variable (GIV) estimation to investigate how IIs’ FX swap demand affects CIP deviation. Our findings demonstrate that a one standard deviation shock to IIs’ FX swap demand when capital is abundant has no effect on IIs’ basis. However, when capital is scarce, the demand shock produces a significant reduction of 12 basis points in IIs’ basis. Our results showcase how limits of arbitrage, together with demand shocks from a large customer base, can drive CIP deviations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103984"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141847174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China 中国企业境外债券发行和企业间贷款
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103975
Yi Huang , Ugo Panizza , Richard Portes
{"title":"Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China","authors":"Yi Huang ,&nbsp;Ugo Panizza ,&nbsp;Richard Portes","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use firm-level data to analyze international bond issuance by Chinese non-financial corporations, distinguishing those by sectors classed as ‘risky’. Dollar issuance is positively correlated with the differential between domestic and foreign interest rates, and this effect is particularly strong for firms in risky sectors. Strikingly, firms in risky sectors use the proceeds to do more interfirm lending than firms in non-risky sectors. Moreover, this lending rose significantly after the authorities sought to restrict the financial activities of risky sectors in 2008–09. Firms in risky sectors compound risk by engaging in speculative activities that mimic the behavior of financial institutions while escaping prudential regulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103975"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141997943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dollar reserves and U.S. yields: Identifying the price impact of official flows 美元储备与美国收益率：确定官方资金流动对价格的影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103974
Rashad Ahmed , Alessandro Rebucci
{"title":"Dollar reserves and U.S. yields: Identifying the price impact of official flows","authors":"Rashad Ahmed ,&nbsp;Alessandro Rebucci","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>By exploiting changes in the volatility of U.S. Treasury yields and foreign official (FO) flows into U.S. Treasuries after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, we identify a FO flow shock via heteroskedasticity in a structural VAR. We estimate that a $100B FO flow shock moves 5 and 10-year U.S. yields by about 100 basis points within a month. An event study of the intraday U.S. Treasury yield curve response to Japan’s FX intervention in September 2022 validates our VAR estimates. Our findings imply that a 1% reduction in the Dollar share of China’s reserves could raise long-term U.S. yields by about 20 basis points.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103974"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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