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Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects 驾驭贸易不确定性：贸易融资的作用和溢出效应
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043
Mauricio Calani , Paula Margaretic , David Moreno
{"title":"Navigating trade uncertainty: The role of trade financing and the spillover effects","authors":"Mauricio Calani ,&nbsp;Paula Margaretic ,&nbsp;David Moreno","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper exploits the exogenous changes of destination/origin-specific trade uncertainty (TU) to investigate the direct and spillover effects of TU on firms’ foreign-trade operations and credit outcomes. Using transaction-level data of Chilean firms and banks, we first show that increasing TU dampens export growth through a deterioration of firms’ working capital. This is especially true when exports are mainly financed by cash-in-advance, a payment mode that entails shorter and less permanent relationships between firms. Second, we find that increases in TU induce a bank-firm portfolio redistribution away from small firms toward large importers and firms involved in the global value chain (GVC). Our results are consistent with a risk-mitigating channel from banks that grant larger loans to firms that are perceived as relatively less risky during periods of high trade tensions. This way, TU shocks spill over to other firms not initially affected by TU through the bank credit market.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104043"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal trade policy with international technology diffusion 国际技术扩散下的最优贸易政策
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038
Yan Bai , Keyu Jin , Dan Lu , Hanxi Wang
{"title":"Optimal trade policy with international technology diffusion","authors":"Yan Bai ,&nbsp;Keyu Jin ,&nbsp;Dan Lu ,&nbsp;Hanxi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study optimal dynamic trade policies in an Eaton–Kortum model with technology diffusion through trade. Trade affects technology by determining the distribution from which potential producers draw their insights. Our theory shows that optimal policies capture dynamic motives for a country to alter global technology. These policies take into account selection effects and country endowments that affect the degree and quality of diffusion. We provide explicit formulas showing that a country should subsidize imports that raise domestic learning quality and reduce export taxes when higher foreign productivity benefits the home country and increased exports improve foreign learning. We quantify these dynamic policies and their welfare implications using cross-country data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104038"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Percolation of Knowledge across Space 知识在空间中的渗透
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026
Pierre Cotterlaz , Arthur Guillouzouic
{"title":"The Percolation of Knowledge across Space","authors":"Pierre Cotterlaz ,&nbsp;Arthur Guillouzouic","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper shows that the negative effect of geographical distance on knowledge flows stems from how firms gain sources of knowledge through their existing network. We start by documenting two stylized facts. First, in aggregate, the distance elasticity of patent citations flows is sizable and has remained constant since the 1980s, despite the rise of the internet. Second, at the micro level, firms’ network of knowledge sources expands through existing knowledge sources. We introduce a framework featuring the latter phenomenon, and generating a negative distance elasticity in aggregate. The model predicts Pareto-distributed innovator sizes, and citation distances increasing with innovator size. These predictions hold well empirically. We investigate changes of the underlying parameters and geographical composition effects over the period. While the distance effect should have decreased with constant country composition, the rise of East Asian economies, associated to large distance elasticities, compensated lower frictions in other countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104026"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets 摩擦性劳动力市场中贸易对竞争的促进作用
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028
Hamid Firooz
{"title":"The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets","authors":"Hamid Firooz","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade <em>in frictional labor markets</em>? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise almost three times more than in a model with constant markups (in the steady state). The presence of labor market frictions makes the pro-competitive gains from trade liberalization negative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104028"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises 从宏观到微观：大型出口商应对全球危机
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
Jean-Charles Bricongne , Juan Carluccio , Lionel Fontagné , Guillaume Gaulier , Sebastian Stumpner
{"title":"From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises","authors":"Jean-Charles Bricongne ,&nbsp;Juan Carluccio ,&nbsp;Lionel Fontagné ,&nbsp;Guillaume Gaulier ,&nbsp;Sebastian Stumpner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters’ higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104037"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine 政治冲击和通胀预期：来自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029
Lena Dräger , Klaus Gründler , Niklas Potrafke
{"title":"Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Lena Dräger ,&nbsp;Klaus Gründler ,&nbsp;Niklas Potrafke","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts’ expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts’ formation of expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104029"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile 20世纪初的美国例外论：汽车的生产、贸易和传播
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025
Dong Cheng , Mario J. Crucini , Hyunseung Oh , Hakan Yilmazkuday
{"title":"Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile","authors":"Dong Cheng ,&nbsp;Mario J. Crucini ,&nbsp;Hyunseung Oh ,&nbsp;Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper curates historical data on the quantity and unit value of automobiles exported from the United States to 23 destination countries along with natural and official barriers relevant to automobiles to account for the 46:1 automobile adoption gap between the US and the median country by 1929. For the median destination country, the export markup, tariff, and shipping cost are each roughly 20% ad-valorem-equivalent distortions, the retail distribution wedge is about 30%, and the foreign user cost wedge (based on gasoline taxes) is above 100%. Eliminating these price wedges and income differences relative to the US is shown to account for over 80% of the adoption gap. The estimated reduced-form adoption model accounts for much of the time series variation with relative price declines and income growth driving US and global adoption upward over time and the Great Depression reversing some of these gains at roughly constant relative prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104025"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of import competition across occupations 跨行业进口竞争的影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001
Sergi Basco , Maxime Liégey , Martí Mestieri , Gabriel Smagghue
{"title":"The effect of import competition across occupations","authors":"Sergi Basco ,&nbsp;Maxime Liégey ,&nbsp;Martí Mestieri ,&nbsp;Gabriel Smagghue","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We empirically examine the effect of import competition on worker earnings across occupations. To guide our analysis, we develop a stylized model that emphasizes industries using occupations in different intensities. We show that an occupational exposure index summarizes the overall exposure of an occupation to industry-level trade shocks. Proxying these industry-level trade shocks with rising Chinese competition and using nationally representative matched employer–employee French panel data from 1993 through 2015, we obtain evidence consistent with the predictions of the model. We find that workers initially employed in occupations highly exposed to Chinese competition – as measured by our occupational exposure index – experience larger declines in earnings. The magnitude of our estimates implies that the effect of rising Chinese competition on workers’ earnings due to differences in workers’ occupations is of comparable magnitude to the effect of workers’ sector of employment. This finding suggests that accounting for the distributional effects of trade across occupations is quantitatively important.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104001"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks 国际生产网络和金融冲击的传播
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039
Sihao Chen
{"title":"International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks","authors":"Sihao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how external sector-level financial shocks are transmitted to a small open economy through international production networks. Using a multi-sector small open economy model, I show analytically that a financial shock to an external production sector affects downstream sectors (through a price effect) and upstream sectors (through a direct demand effect and a complementarity or substitution effect). These effects work through international production networks, affecting the small country’s output and GDP. Quantitatively, I construct U.S. sector-level excess bond premia and estimate key parameters for simulations. The simulation exercises show that U.S. financial shocks account for a significant proportion of the fluctuations in Mexico’s GDP during the global financial crisis. International production networks amplify the real effect of external financial shocks by a factor of at least three during the crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104039"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks 国内联系和商品价格冲击的传导
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041
Damian Romero
{"title":"Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks","authors":"Damian Romero","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the role of input–output (IO) linkages in the propagation of commodity price shocks. We present empirical evidence documenting a positive correlation between commodity prices and GDP that decreases in the intensity of production linkages between the commodity sector and the rest. In a model for a small open economy, stronger linkages reduce the demand for inputs by the commodity sector, dampening the response of real GDP after a positive commodity price shock. A calibrated version of the model shows that the elasticity of GDP would be 6% lower if the commodity sector had been 5% more connected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104041"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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