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Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk 主权风险下的扩张性财政规则
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104198
Carlos Esquivel , Agustin Samano
{"title":"Expansionary fiscal rules under sovereign risk","authors":"Carlos Esquivel ,&nbsp;Agustin Samano","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study fiscal rules in a sovereign default model with private capital accumulation and long-term debt. Their adoption strengthens public finances and increases long-run income by mitigating two distortions: debt dilution and underinvestment. In the short run, however, the economy experiences a costly transition where consumption and investment drop to finance debt reduction. To study this tradeoff, we calibrate the model to Argentina and evaluate three rules: a debt limit, a deficit limit, and a dual rule combining both. The deficit limit is preferred only when implemented at high debt levels because it features smoother debt reduction but imposes strict discipline in all states. Otherwise, gains are highest under the dual rule that combines the flexibility of debt limits at low levels with the discipline of deficit limits at higher levels. Results are robust to alternative formulations for capital accumulation and stronger in the presence of political myopia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104198"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145615784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign direct investment, prices and efficiency: Evidence from India 外国直接投资、价格和效率：来自印度的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104202
Nesma Ali , Joel Stiebale
{"title":"Foreign direct investment, prices and efficiency: Evidence from India","authors":"Nesma Ali ,&nbsp;Joel Stiebale","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses a rich panel dataset of Indian manufacturers to analyze the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic firms. Detailed product-level information on prices and quantities allows us to estimate physical productivity and marginal costs. In line with the previous literature, we find little evidence of horizontal spillovers based on commonly used measures of revenue productivity. In contrast, we measure sizable efficiency gains using measures that are not affected by pricing heterogeneity. Our results indicate that domestic firms do benefit from the ability of multinational subsidiaries to produce high-quality products at relatively low cost.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104202"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-product and cross-market adjustments within multiproduct firms: Evidence from antidumping actions 多产品企业内部的跨产品和跨市场调整：来自反倾销行动的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104206
Xiaohua Bao , Bruce A. Blonigen , Zhi Yu
{"title":"Cross-product and cross-market adjustments within multiproduct firms: Evidence from antidumping actions","authors":"Xiaohua Bao ,&nbsp;Bruce A. Blonigen ,&nbsp;Zhi Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses detailed firm–product–country-level export data to examine how an AD action, a very targeted trade policy against a specific product in a specific export destination, affects a multiproduct firm’s price and quantity decisions across its other products and export destinations. We find robust evidence for substantial interdependencies across a multiproduct firm’s products and markets, including a new phenomenon we call within-firm cross-product trade deflection whereby an AD action against one of the firm’s products in one of its export destinations is associated with increased sales of its other products across all markets. These effects are generally stronger for private (versus state-owned) firms and larger firms, and for deflection from a firm’s non-core products to core product. Our highly detailed data and analytical approach allow us to disentangle the extent to which these cross-product effects stem from cost and/or demand interdependencies within the multiproduct firm.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104206"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145880568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? 地缘政治风险会提高还是降低通胀？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104188
Dario Caldara , Sarah Conlisk , Matteo Iacoviello , Maddie Penn
{"title":"Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation?","authors":"Dario Caldara ,&nbsp;Sarah Conlisk ,&nbsp;Matteo Iacoviello ,&nbsp;Maddie Penn","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104188","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104188","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation? Using a unique dataset containing historical macroeconomic data since 1900 for 44 economies, we find that geopolitical risks foreshadow high inflation, with the intensity of this effect differing across countries and historical periods. The rise in inflation is accompanied by lower economic activity; an increase in military spending, public debt, and money growth; supply disruptions; and a decline in international trade. Geopolitical risks are also associated with higher inflation uncertainty and the risk of significant inflation increases. Using a monthly vector autoregression model estimated on global data since the 1970s, we confirm that global geopolitical risks increase inflation, with the inflationary effect of higher commodity prices and currency depreciation more than offsetting the deflationary effects of lower consumer sentiment and tighter financial conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"159 ","pages":"Article 104188"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145615783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending 与气候变化相关的监管风险和银行贷款
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156
Isabella Mueller , Eleonora Sfrappini
{"title":"Climate change-related regulatory risks and bank lending","authors":"Isabella Mueller ,&nbsp;Eleonora Sfrappini","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze how firms’ climate change-related regulatory risks affect banks’ lending. Exploiting the Paris Agreement in a difference-in-differences setting, we find that effects depend on how borrowers will be affected by regulation as well as the stringency of the existing regulatory environment where firms are located. Firms that benefit from regulation receive more credit only if located in more stringent regulatory environments. Conversely, firms hurt by regulation receive more credit if located in less stringent environments or if linked to banks with a portfolio tilted towards lending to negatively impacted firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104156"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Credit and firms’ organization 信用与企业组织
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104172
Alessandro Sforza , Edoardo Maria Acabbi
{"title":"Credit and firms’ organization","authors":"Alessandro Sforza ,&nbsp;Edoardo Maria Acabbi","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how credit availability affects the organization of firms’ labor. We construct a firm-specific credit supply instrument derived from firm-bank credit linkages, and conduct an event study analyzing labor restructuring decisions within Portuguese firms. Our analysis uncovers a clear nexus between credit availability and labor adjustments. Specifically, firms that invest in machines and equipment are more sensitive to credit shortages. As a result, they tend to adjust their workforce by reducing the number of production and specialized workers closely associated with machine operations. These findings shed light on how credit dynamics shape labor decisions within firms, providing insights into aggregate responses to financial limitations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104172"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Evidence from China 贸易政策不确定性与创新：来自中国的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104170
Federica Coelli
{"title":"Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Evidence from China","authors":"Federica Coelli","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104170","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104170","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the effect of resolving trade policy uncertainty on innovation in China from 1990 to 2007. Exploiting exogenous and heterogeneous exposure to the elimination of U.S. tariff uncertainty, together with detailed innovation data, the analysis shows that reducing tariff uncertainty generated economically and statistically significant increases in innovation. This increase represents actual innovation, and not just more patent filings. The timing of the response is heterogeneous: lower-quality innovations respond quickly, while higher-quality and higher-opportunity-cost innovations respond more gradually. Innovation increases along three margins: entry into new technologies, patents with broader technological scope, and innovation within firms’ existing technological portfolios. More exposed sectors experience larger increases in first-time patenting firms. Finally, the increase in innovation is at least in part driven by exports to the US.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104170"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Knockin’ on H(e)aven’s door. Financial crises and offshore wealth 敲着天堂的门。金融危机和离岸财富
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104175
Silvia Marchesi , Giovanna Marcolongo
{"title":"Knockin’ on H(e)aven’s door. Financial crises and offshore wealth","authors":"Silvia Marchesi ,&nbsp;Giovanna Marcolongo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104175","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104175","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the relationship between financial crises in developing countries and variation of bank deposits in offshore financial centers. Using a stacked difference-in-differences estimator, we find that three years after the onset of the crisis, bank deposits in tax havens increase by almost 30 percent. The effect appears independent of tax rates and is primarily driven by countries with weak institutions. We add to the literature on tax havens as we find that they not only facilitate tax evasion and corruption in “normal times”, but also absorb resources during financial crises, when most needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104175"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145332943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy 多维度美国货币政策的全球溢出效应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169
Georgios Georgiadis, Marek Jarociński
{"title":"Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy","authors":"Georgios Georgiadis,&nbsp;Marek Jarociński","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate international spillovers from both conventional and unconventional US monetary policy. We use novel measures of exogenous variation in conventional policy, forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs), based on high-frequency asset price surprises around a broad set of Federal Reserve communications. The identification relies on relatively weak assumptions and accounts for potential endogenous policy components – including central bank information effects – in these asset price surprises. We find that: (i) conventional policy, forward guidance and LSAPs all generate large and comparable spillovers; (ii) these spillovers transmit through trade and financial channels to a similar extent; (iii) LSAPs trigger immediate international portfolio rebalancing between US and foreign bonds that are relatively close substitutes, but they produce only limited spillovers in term premia; (iv) all Fed policy measures create trade-offs for emerging market monetary policy between stabilizing output and prices vs. ensuring financial stability, particularly with regard to capital inflows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104169"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Housing demand, inequality, and spatial sorting 住房需求、不平等和空间分类
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104171
John Finlay , Trevor C. Williams
{"title":"Housing demand, inequality, and spatial sorting","authors":"John Finlay ,&nbsp;Trevor C. Williams","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104171","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104171","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Skilled workers’ incomes have pulled away from those of unskilled workers in recent decades, reflecting increasing skill bias in production. How has this changed the spatial distribution of skill? We show nonhomothetic housing demand connects aggregate income inequality to spatial sorting. A household’s skill level determines its income, and therefore its housing expenditure share, sensitivity to housing costs, and location preferences. The result is spatial sorting by skill. Moreover, diverging incomes cause diverging location choices. Using consumption microdata, we estimate that housing is a necessity. Increasing total expenditure by 10% reduces housing expenditure shares by 2.5%. Skilled workers therefore sort into expensive cities, and by raising their relative incomes, increases in aggregate skill bias intensify sorting. Embedding our estimated preferences in a quantitative spatial model, we find that without rising aggregate skill bias, spatial sorting would have grown one quarter less since 1980.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104171"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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