Global value chains in a world of uncertainty and automation

IF 3.8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Marius Faber , Kemal Kilic , Gleb Kozliakov , Dalia Marin
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal. We show that plausibly exogenous exposure to uncertainty in developing countries leads to reshoring to high-income countries, but only if industrial robots have made this economically feasible. In contrast, we find no strong evidence of nearshoring or diversification. We address concerns about reverse causality by showing that results hold when using two alternative identification strategies. In a narrative approach, we use only locally generated spikes in uncertainty, for which the narratives around the events suggest that they are plausibly exogenous. In a small open economy approach, we restrict the sample to small developed countries that are unlikely to cause uncertainty in the developing world. Moreover, we show that results are robust to the main threats to identification related to shift-share instruments.
不确定和自动化世界中的全球价值链
随着企业沿着全球价值链组织生产,世界经济变得越来越全球化。但最近,全球化停滞不前。这篇论文表明,更高的不确定性,加上更好的自动化技术,很可能促成了趋势的逆转。我们表明,发展中国家对不确定性的外源性暴露可能导致向高收入国家回流,但前提是工业机器人使这种回流在经济上可行。相比之下,我们没有发现近岸或多样化的有力证据。我们通过显示使用两种替代识别策略时的结果来解决对反向因果关系的关注。在叙述方法中,我们只使用局部产生的不确定性峰值,围绕事件的叙述表明它们似乎是外生的。在小型开放经济方法中,我们将样本限制在不太可能在发展中国家造成不确定性的小型发达国家。此外,我们表明结果对与移位份额工具相关的识别主要威胁具有鲁棒性。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
6.10%
发文量
98
期刊介绍: The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.
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