海运环境监管的意外后果：空运的碳泄漏

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104081

Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Alexandre Skiba , David Terner

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们评估了即将实施的国际海事组织二氧化碳排放上限对全球海运的预期影响。利用美国进口的详细数据——包括船只、路线、排放和贸易——我们估计了一个允许海运、空运和陆运之间替代的模型。我们的研究结果表明，这一限制将推动向碳密集型航空和陆地运输的转变，导致与运输相关的二氧化碳排放量在短期和长期内总体增加。此外，还会造成重大的福利损失。我们的研究结果支持更有效的替代政策选择。

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Unintended consequences of environmental regulation of maritime shipping: Carbon leakage to air shipping

We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization’s CO

_{2}

emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports—covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade—we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO

_{2}

emissions in both the short- and long-run. Additionally, it will cause significant welfare losses. Our findings support a case for more efficient alternative policy options.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.