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A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises 从宏观经济角度看跨国企业征税问题
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022
Sebastian Dyrda , Guangbin Hong , Joseph B. Steinberg
{"title":"A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda ,&nbsp;Guangbin Hong ,&nbsp;Joseph B. Steinberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a general-equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic consequences of international profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In our model, MNEs shift profits by exploiting intangible capital transfer pricing rules, which makes intangible investment more attractive and leads to higher output at home and abroad. We use the model to quantify the effects of two reforms proposed by the OECD: (i) reallocating MNEs’ profit tax bases to the countries where they sell their products; and (ii) a minimum global corporate income tax. Both reforms would reduce profit shifting substantially, but (i) would reduce global output whereas (ii) would have little macroeconomic impact. The reforms’ distributional implications would also be important. In high-tax countries, tax revenues would increase more than output declines, raising gross national income and enabling redistribution that could offset lower wages. In contrast, output and tax revenues would both drop in low-tax countries, significantly reducing national income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104022"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty 英国脱欧不确定性的进口（蚂蚁）代价
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012
Alejandro G. Graziano , Kyle Handley , Nuno Limão
{"title":"An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty","authors":"Alejandro G. Graziano ,&nbsp;Kyle Handley ,&nbsp;Nuno Limão","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104012"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension 国际贸易中的三角不平等：被忽视的层面
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018
Reto Foellmi , Christian Hepenstrick , David Torun
{"title":"Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension","authors":"Reto Foellmi ,&nbsp;Christian Hepenstrick ,&nbsp;David Torun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104018"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade under lockdown 被封锁的贸易
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013
Antoine Berthou , Sebastian Stumpner
{"title":"Trade under lockdown","authors":"Antoine Berthou ,&nbsp;Sebastian Stumpner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To curb the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on public health, many countries around the world introduced lockdown policies in 2020. This paper estimates the effect of these lockdowns on international trade flows using a rich dataset of monthly bilateral trade flows covering over 80% of world trade. We first document that both exporter and importer lockdowns significantly reduced trade flows, that this effect differed substantially across sectors, and has been declining over time. We then decompose this total effect into a direct effect of lockdowns on trade, and an indirect effect that is mediated by a decline in economic activity. Our results indicate that lockdowns reduced trade also conditional on economic activity, suggesting an important increase in trade costs due to lockdowns. A quantification exercise shows that the welfare consequences of these trade costs were sizable, amounting to about one sixth of the welfare loss under a complete return to autarky.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104013"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The rise of the walking dead: Zombie firms around the world 行尸走肉的崛起世界各地的僵尸企业
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019
Bruno Albuquerque , Roshan Iyer
{"title":"The rise of the walking dead: Zombie firms around the world","authors":"Bruno Albuquerque ,&nbsp;Roshan Iyer","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build a comprehensive new dataset spanning listed and private nonfinancial zombie firms across Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets over the past two decades. Our findings reveal a global rise in the prevalence of these unproductive and unviable firms, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that private firms exhibit lower zombification rates due to their lower average survival rates. Our paper also offers a new perspective on zombie lending drivers: lenders may rationalize zombie lending based on overly optimistic expectations of a recovery in zombies’ future earnings. We then document that macroprudential policies targeting bank capital and loan restrictions can effectively mitigate the adverse effects of zombification. However, strengthening the banking sector alone may not suffice without robust insolvency frameworks prepared to manage firm restructuring and insolvency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104019"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The foreign firm wage premium in the Israeli tech sector 以色列科技行业的外国公司工资溢价
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017
Noam Gruber
{"title":"The foreign firm wage premium in the Israeli tech sector","authors":"Noam Gruber","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign tech multinationals, which have entered Israel en masse in the past two decades, are known to use high wages to draw in the best talent. While paying higher wages no doubt contributes to the domestic economy, local tech firms have argued that the competition for talent inhibits their growth, and that foreign multinationals contribute less in terms of overall economic value compared to local firms. It is thus of great importance to estimate the foreign firm wage premium – by how much do foreign multinationals pay more for comparable talent? Using an extensive micro-level education data and exploiting worker movement and firm shutdowns/downsizing as an unbiased alternative to AKM methodology, this paper finds the foreign firm wage premium to be in the 3%–4% range, much less than previously estimated.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104017"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation 俄罗斯的反制裁和走私：利用结构重力估算进行取证
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014
Vladimir Tyazhelnikov , John Romalis
{"title":"Russian counter-sanctions and smuggling: Forensics with structural gravity estimation","authors":"Vladimir Tyazhelnikov ,&nbsp;John Romalis","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade and other economic sanctions are a common foreign policy instrument, but their imposition may induce smuggling. We develop and implement procedures to study smuggling after the food embargo imposed by Russia on Western countries after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. We construct predicted trade flows for the post-sanctions period using an estimated structural general equilibrium gravity model with many industry sectors and compare those predictions with actual trade flows. We identify a substantial value of suspicious trade flows which we associate with smuggling; especially importing banned goods through third countries such as Belarus. The structural gravity model systematically under-predicts trade volumes for country–product combinations used as channels for smuggling of the banned goods. We identify a quantity of smuggling equivalent to approximately 11 to 17 percent of the pre-embargo trade flows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104014"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Immigrants, legal status, and illegal trade 移民、合法身份和非法贸易
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016
Brett A. McCully
{"title":"Immigrants, legal status, and illegal trade","authors":"Brett A. McCully","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104016","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nearly $2 trillion of illegally trafficked goods flow across international borders every year, generating violence and other social costs along the way. Due to the absence of legal contracts and the challenge of finding trading partners in an illegal market, traffickers may rely on co-ethnic networks to facilitate trade. In this paper, I use novel microdata on the universe of large illegal drug confiscations in Spain to provide the first causal estimates of how immigrants and immigration policy affect the pattern and scale of illegal drug trafficking. I find that immigrants increase both illegal drugs imported from and exported to their origin country, with irregular immigrants raising illegal drug imports. Doubling the number of immigrants from an origin country raises the likelihood of illegal drug imports from that country by 8 percentage points. I find suggestive evidence that granting legal status to immigrants reduces illegal drug imports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104016"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign competition and innovation 外国竞争和创新
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007
Elhanan Helpman
{"title":"Foreign competition and innovation","authors":"Elhanan Helpman","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Empirical studies have found that enhanced foreign competition can encourage or discourage innovation. To address this relationship, I examine a market structure in which a small number of large multi-product oligopolists compete with a large number of small single-product firms in the same industry. The single-product firms are short-lived while the multi-product firms live forever, and the large firms invest in innovation in order to enlarge their product spans. All firms export. I show that an increase in the competitiveness of foreign firms can increase or reduce innovation efforts of a large multi-product firm. Moreover, changes in the incentives to innovate can be different for more-productive and less-productive oligopolists. As a result, aggregate sectoral innovation may rise or decline, depending on the productivity distribution of the oligopolists. I also show that changes in short-term operating profits may not be aligned with changes in the incentives to innovate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104007"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions 空间均衡：两个地区的案例
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008
Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Gary Lyn , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
{"title":"Spatial Equilibria: The Case of Two Regions","authors":"Konstantin Kucheryavyy ,&nbsp;Gary Lyn ,&nbsp;Andrés Rodríguez-Clare","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we characterize the set of equilibria in a generalized version of the canonical two-region economic geography model that nests the class of models in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) as well as Krugman (1991) and features an input–output loop. We provide sufficient conditions for uniqueness of equilibria that — in contrast to the well-know result in Allen and Arkolakis (2014) — allow for positive agglomeration externalities, which concentrate economic activity, even in the absence of congestion effects, which disperse it, and highlight the key role played by three additional parameters: the <em>trade elasticity</em>, which regulates the strength of the dispersion force associated with the decline in the terms of trade caused by migration into a region; <em>trade costs</em>, which weaken this dispersion force by limiting trade across regions; and the importance of the <em>agricultural sector</em>, which pushes against agglomeration forces in manufacturing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104008"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142527737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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