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Policy rules and large crises in emerging markets 新兴市场的政策规则和大规模危机
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104179
Emilio César Espino , Julian Kozlowski , Fernando M. Martin , Juan M. Sánchez
{"title":"Policy rules and large crises in emerging markets","authors":"Emilio César Espino ,&nbsp;Julian Kozlowski ,&nbsp;Fernando M. Martin ,&nbsp;Juan M. Sánchez","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104179","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104179","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emerging economies have adopted fiscal and monetary rules to discipline government policy. We study the value and macroeconomic implications of rules and flexibility within a sovereign-default model that incorporates domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. Adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times yields welfare gains. Suspending rules can significantly influence policy, macroeconomic outcomes, and welfare during large, unforeseen crises. The gains from flexibility depend on how quickly policymakers are able to reimpose rules after the crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104179"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145332942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk 温度风险的宏观经济成本
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157
Piergiorgio Alessandri , Haroon Mumtaz
{"title":"The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk","authors":"Piergiorgio Alessandri ,&nbsp;Haroon Mumtaz","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures – a measure of <em>ex ante</em> temperature risk – varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 °C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent increase in the volatility of GDP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104157"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145027848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy design in collateral-constraint economies: The role of commitment 抵押品约束经济中的财政政策设计：承诺的作用
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104176
Paolo Varraso
{"title":"Fiscal policy design in collateral-constraint economies: The role of commitment","authors":"Paolo Varraso","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104176","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104176","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the optimal design of fiscal policy, with and without commitment, in collateral-constraint models where the households’ borrowing capacity is linked to the economy’s real exchange rate. When the collateral constraint is binding, increasing public spending raises the real exchange rate and stabilizes private consumption. However, by making potential crises less costly, higher spending also makes borrowing more attractive. I show that the Ramsey-optimal policy entails a commitment to restrict fiscal stimulus during crisis periods, aimed at deterring excessive debt accumulation. In a quantitative application to Argentina, I show that, despite the potential for substantial ex-post gains from stabilizing the real exchange rate, significant fiscal expansions are not optimal because of the borrowing inefficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104176"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Liquidity as competitive advantage: The role of intangibles 流动资金作为竞争优势：无形资产的作用
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168
Carlo Altomonte , Monica Morlacco , Tommaso Sonno , Domenico Favoino
{"title":"Liquidity as competitive advantage: The role of intangibles","authors":"Carlo Altomonte ,&nbsp;Monica Morlacco ,&nbsp;Tommaso Sonno ,&nbsp;Domenico Favoino","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104168","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show that short-term liquidity can be a source of competitive advantage by enabling firms to invest in intangible assets. Our analysis leverages a French reform that capped payment delays in trade credit contracts, which generated quasi-experimental variation in corporate liquidity across manufacturing firms. Higher liquidity led to significantly greater investment in intangibles, which, in turn, raised markups and market shares. These results suggest a strategic role for liquidity in shaping firm performance, indicating that initial financial conditions can have lasting effects on productivity and market structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104168"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Export shocks and banks’ domestic credit: Balancing liquidity provision and risk mitigation 出口冲击与银行国内信贷：平衡流动性供应与风险缓解
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104173
Stefano Federico, Giuseppe Marinelli, Francesco Palazzo
{"title":"Export shocks and banks’ domestic credit: Balancing liquidity provision and risk mitigation","authors":"Stefano Federico,&nbsp;Giuseppe Marinelli,&nbsp;Francesco Palazzo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104173","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104173","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores how a demand shock in an export market propagates through the domestic banking system. The 2014 dual shocks of sanctions and falling oil prices significantly reduced sales for Italian exporters to Russia, leading to increased liquidity needs. Banks more exposed to these exporters accommodated their credit demand to address liquidity shortfalls but simultaneously reduced credit supply, especially to ex ante risky borrowers not directly affected by the shock. Our findings suggest a bank capital channel at play, mitigating trade shocks for some firms while transmitting them to the broader economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104173"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflated concerns: Exposure to past inflationary episodes and preferences for price stability 夸大的担忧：对过去通胀事件的敞口，以及对价格稳定的偏好
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104181
Nicolás E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura
{"title":"Inflated concerns: Exposure to past inflationary episodes and preferences for price stability","authors":"Nicolás E. Magud,&nbsp;Samuel Pienknagura","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104181","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104181","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using individual-level surveys for 42 countries (advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies) spanning about 40 years, we show that cohorts with higher exposure to past inflationary episodes systematically express higher concerns over inflation. This link is stronger for women and poorer individuals; when exposure occurs in the latter part of the individual’s working-age (lifecycle theory); and it diminishes with individuals’ trust in institutions. Country characteristics also affect the link between past inflation exposure and inflation concerns—it is amplified by macroeconomic instability, and reduced with institutions’ quality, aggregate income, and democratic development. Higher contemporaneous inflation affects inflation concerns but does not increase the sensitivity of inflation concerns to past experience. In turn, inflation concerns have macroeconomic implications, as inflation expectations are more responsive to inflationary shocks in countries where concerns about inflation are more entrenched. This could potentially affect central banks’ ability to anchor inflation expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104181"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expectations and the UIP puzzles when foresight is limited 当远见有限时，期望和统一ip令人困惑
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104183
Seunghoon Na , Yinxi Xie
{"title":"Expectations and the UIP puzzles when foresight is limited","authors":"Seunghoon Na ,&nbsp;Yinxi Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104183","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104183","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies exchange rate dynamics and excess currency returns by incorporating bounded rationality into a small open-economy New Keynesian model. Decision-makers have limited foresight, planning only up to a finite horizon and approximating continuation values with coarse value functions learned from past experiences. This behavior generates an initial underreaction, followed by an overreaction in beliefs, leading to dynamic overshooting of exchange rate forecast errors. Moreover, the coexistence of forward- and backward-looking components in expectation formation breaks the forecast-horizon invariance implied from rational expectations. Our model thus provides a micro-foundation for understanding time- and forecast-horizon variability in uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzles, and its predictions align closely with empirical estimates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104183"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145474202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool? 利率不确定性作为政策工具？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104180
Fabio Ghironi , Galip Kemal Ozhan
{"title":"Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool?","authors":"Fabio Ghironi ,&nbsp;Galip Kemal Ozhan","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104180","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104180","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study an unconventional policy tool – interest rate uncertainty – that may be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external accounts between short-term securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). We show that identified interest rate volatility shocks in several emerging markets lower GDP growth, raise inflation, improve the current account, and depreciate the real exchange rate. In a calibrated open-economy New Keynesian model, we introduce a policy rule that endogenously adjusts the volatility of interest rate shocks in response to capital-flow drivers. The uncertainty policy discourages short-term portfolio inflows through <em>portfolio-risk</em> and <em>consumption-smoothing channels</em>, while a <em>markup channel</em>, reinforced by exchange-rate depreciation, attracts FDI. The strength of the markup transmission depends on exchange-rate pass-through. The uncertainty policy may be welfare improving if designed against uncertainty shocks that drive capital flows. However, it may be welfare reducing against level shocks that drive capital inflows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104180"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145332939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade, jobs, and worker welfare 贸易、就业和工人福利
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154
Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee
{"title":"Trade, jobs, and worker welfare","authors":"Erhan Artuc ,&nbsp;Paulo Bastos ,&nbsp;Eunhee Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145061351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan 外国直接投资作为长期资本流动渠道：来自日本的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158
Naohisa Hirakata , Mitsuru Katagiri
{"title":"Foreign direct investment as a long-term capital flow channel: Evidence from Japan","authors":"Naohisa Hirakata ,&nbsp;Mitsuru Katagiri","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104158","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in accounting for the long-term trend of capital flows under demographic changes. For this purpose, we incorporate horizontal FDI under the proximity-concentration trade-off into a two-country DSGE model and conduct a quantitative analysis using long-term Japanese data for capital flows since the 1960s. The quantitative analysis finds that the transition dynamics solely driven by demographic changes well account for the long-term trend of capital flows and that multinational firms’ endogenous decision on FDI in response to population aging is key to explaining the long-term trend.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104158"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145332941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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