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Avoiding sovereign default contagion: A normative analysis 避免主权违约传染：一个规范分析
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040
Sergio de Ferra , Enrico Mallucci
{"title":"Avoiding sovereign default contagion: A normative analysis","authors":"Sergio de Ferra ,&nbsp;Enrico Mallucci","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Should debtor countries support each other during sovereign debt crises? We answer this question through the lens of a two-country sovereign-default model that we calibrate to the euro-area periphery. First, we look at cross-country bailouts. We find that whenever agents anticipate them, bailouts induce higher borrowings, and yet still enhance welfare. Second, we look at the borrowing choices of a global central borrower. We find that central borrower’s policies reduce debt and improve the joint welfare of the two countries. Yet, welfare gains are uneven. In our baseline specification, one of the two countries sees a decline of welfare under the planner’s rules. We conclude that central planner policies may be politically unfeasible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104040"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade flows and exchange rates: Importers, exporters and products 贸易流动和汇率：进口商、出口商和产品
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044
Michael B. Devereux , Wei Dong , Ben Tomlin
{"title":"Trade flows and exchange rates: Importers, exporters and products","authors":"Michael B. Devereux ,&nbsp;Wei Dong ,&nbsp;Ben Tomlin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using highly-disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Moreover, we find that these margins are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate and that larger firms are substantially more responsive in terms of both the number of trade partners and products. These findings are then rationalized in a model of international trade with endogenous matching between heterogeneous importers and exporters. Simulations of the model highlight: (1) a new channel through which exchange rates influence short-run trade flows; and (2) the importance of firm heterogeneity—on both sides of trade transactions—in the adjustment process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104044"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The standard errors of persistence 持久性的标准错误
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027
Timothy G. Conley, Morgan Kelly
{"title":"The standard errors of persistence","authors":"Timothy G. Conley,&nbsp;Morgan Kelly","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to inadequately controlling for spurious correlation. To analyze this we introduce a new regression procedure and two diagnostic tests of no treatment effect: (a) a placebo test where the treatment is replaced with spatial noise and (b) a synthetic outcomes test of the hypothesis that the outcome is generated by a trend plus a spatial noise process independent of the treatment. We then show how reliable regression results can be obtained by adding a low dimensional spatial basis to the regression of interest, and applying a large cluster standard error correction. Examining 30 persistence studies in leading journals we find that few approach significance at conventional levels. Our procedure applies to regressions with spatial observations more generally and is implemented in an open source package.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104027"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142745180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada 帝国计划：战时加拿大的贸易政策
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024
Markus Lampe , Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke , Lorenz Reiter , Yoto V. Yotov
{"title":"The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada","authors":"Markus Lampe ,&nbsp;Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke ,&nbsp;Lorenz Reiter ,&nbsp;Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tariff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have heterogeneous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on Canadian imports was large.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104024"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Good connections : Bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports 良好的联系 ：银行专业化和出口关税弹性
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021
Antoine Berthou , Thierry Mayer , Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier
{"title":"Good connections : Bank specialization and the tariff elasticity of exports","authors":"Antoine Berthou ,&nbsp;Thierry Mayer ,&nbsp;Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Banks support exporters in foreign markets by providing them with credit, trade finance instruments or information about business opportunities. Repeated interactions with clients allow them to develop an expertise in specific markets – a geographical specialization. We develop a theoretical model where the specialization of banks translates into lower export costs for their clients through both the cost of credit and an information channel. The model predicts that the geographical specialization of banks tends to amplify the response of firm-level exports to a trade liberalization episode. We test this prediction on detailed French export data, using the 2011 free trade agreement between the European Union and Korea as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that the tariff elasticity of exports is larger in absolute terms for exporters which are connected to banks with a specialization in Korea. The sector specialization of the banks also matters, but to a lesser extent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104021"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland 跨境购物：瑞士的证据和福利影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015
Ariel Burstein , Sarah Lein , Jonathan Vogel
{"title":"Cross-border shopping: Evidence and welfare implications for Switzerland","authors":"Ariel Burstein ,&nbsp;Sarah Lein ,&nbsp;Jonathan Vogel","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104015","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Consumers access foreign goods by purchasing them domestically or shopping abroad. We present new facts on cross-border shopping by Swiss households showing, for example, that prices of identical products are lower in neighboring countries, cross-border shopping shares fall with distance to the border, and price gaps and cross-border shopping shares rose following the 2015 Swiss Franc appreciation. We use a simple model of cross-border shopping to quantify how variation across space in cross-border shopping results in heterogeneous changes in cost-of-living in response to changes in international prices such as the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation and the 2020 Covid-19-related closing of the border.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104015"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modern advances in international trade 国际贸易的现代进步
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104020
Costas Arkolakis , Martin Uribe
{"title":"Modern advances in international trade","authors":"Costas Arkolakis ,&nbsp;Martin Uribe","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104020"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143132004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises 从宏观经济角度看跨国企业征税问题
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022
Sebastian Dyrda , Guangbin Hong , Joseph B. Steinberg
{"title":"A macroeconomic perspective on taxing multinational enterprises","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda ,&nbsp;Guangbin Hong ,&nbsp;Joseph B. Steinberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a general-equilibrium model to study the macroeconomic consequences of international profit shifting by multinational enterprises (MNEs). In our model, MNEs shift profits by exploiting intangible capital transfer pricing rules, which makes intangible investment more attractive and leads to higher output at home and abroad. We use the model to quantify the effects of two reforms proposed by the OECD: (i) reallocating MNEs’ profit tax bases to the countries where they sell their products; and (ii) a minimum global corporate income tax. Both reforms would reduce profit shifting substantially, but (i) would reduce global output whereas (ii) would have little macroeconomic impact. The reforms’ distributional implications would also be important. In high-tax countries, tax revenues would increase more than output declines, raising gross national income and enabling redistribution that could offset lower wages. In contrast, output and tax revenues would both drop in low-tax countries, significantly reducing national income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104022"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty 英国脱欧不确定性的进口（蚂蚁）代价
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012
Alejandro G. Graziano , Kyle Handley , Nuno Limão
{"title":"An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty","authors":"Alejandro G. Graziano ,&nbsp;Kyle Handley ,&nbsp;Nuno Limão","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers’ real income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104012"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142660284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension 国际贸易中的三角不平等：被忽视的层面
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018
Reto Foellmi , Christian Hepenstrick , David Torun
{"title":"Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension","authors":"Reto Foellmi ,&nbsp;Christian Hepenstrick ,&nbsp;David Torun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104018","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating trade costs is key to understanding the welfare effects of trade liberalizations. Cost minimization implies that the triangle inequality (TI) of international trade costs must hold for any three countries to avoid cross-border arbitrage. We show that re-routing opportunities might arise when trade costs change because a shipment through an intermediary becomes cheaper. The TI captures such re-routing opportunities. However, standard approaches to calculating the gains from trade liberalizations ignore this no-arbitrage condition. We outline an estimation routine that is model-consistent and respects the TI. Counterfactual exercises suggest that the welfare gains from re-routing after trade liberalizations can be substantial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104018"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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