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Economic diversity and the resilience of cities 经济多样性和城市韧性
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104184
François de Soyres , Simon Fuchs , Illenin O. Kondo , Helene Maghin
{"title":"Economic diversity and the resilience of cities","authors":"François de Soyres ,&nbsp;Simon Fuchs ,&nbsp;Illenin O. Kondo ,&nbsp;Helene Maghin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104184","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop a framework to assess how economic shocks affect local labor markets and worker welfare, with a focus on city-level economic diversity. Using detailed worker flow data across cities, sectors, and occupations, we construct theory-consistent welfare measures. Our approach combines a dynamic discrete choice model with a dual representation that captures both direct effects and the insurance value of local economic diversity. Applied to French labor markets, we find that diversification dampens the effect of negative shocks: both job-to-job moves and net inflows decline less in diverse cities than in concentrated ones. Overall, we document sizable welfare insurance gains from local economic diversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104184"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers? 2018年的贸易战是否改善了美国工人的就业机会？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125
Beata Javorcik , Benjamin Kett , Katherine Stapleton , Layla O’Kane
{"title":"Did the 2018 trade war improve job opportunities for US workers?","authors":"Beata Javorcik ,&nbsp;Benjamin Kett ,&nbsp;Katherine Stapleton ,&nbsp;Layla O’Kane","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. We develop measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. We find evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. The effects of imported input tariffs were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings and for part-time than full-time jobs. By contrast, we do not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. We estimate that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 162,019 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104125"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame? 高企的公共债务：应该归咎于冲击还是自由裁量的财政政策？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130
Nikhil Patel, Adrian Peralta-Alva
{"title":"High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame?","authors":"Nikhil Patel,&nbsp;Adrian Peralta-Alva","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104130","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that shocks to GDP growth and interest rates collectively account for more than half of the observed annual variation in debt to GDP ratios, while discretionary fiscal policy changes contribute less than 20%. Our analysis also reveals that the primary balance multiplier on GDP is minimal. We reconcile our findings with existing literature by demonstrating that previous discrepancies arise largely from differences in shock identification methods, but also on account of cross-country heterogeneity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104130"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145047347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters 为什么不完全市场的开放经济模式的全球解决方案和地方解决方案不同？为什么这很重要
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142
Oliver de Groot , C. Bora Durdu , Enrique G. Mendoza
{"title":"Why global and local solutions of open-economy models with incomplete markets differ and why it matters","authors":"Oliver de Groot ,&nbsp;C. Bora Durdu ,&nbsp;Enrique G. Mendoza","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104142","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities that make net foreign assets (NFA) “sticky,” causing them to differ sharply from global solutions in experiments altering precautionary savings (e.g., increasing income volatility, adding capital controls). Analytic and numerical results show that our findings are due to the near-unit-root nature of NFA under incomplete markets and imprecise solutions of their autocorrelation. These findings extend to a Sudden Stops model with an occasionally binding collateral constraint. In addition, quasi-linear methods yield smaller financial premia and macroeconomic responses when the constraint binds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104142"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The business cycle volatility puzzle: Emerging vs developed economies 商业周期波动之谜：新兴经济体vs发达经济体
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104182
Lucía Casal , Rafael Guntin
{"title":"The business cycle volatility puzzle: Emerging vs developed economies","authors":"Lucía Casal ,&nbsp;Rafael Guntin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104182","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104182","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the drivers of business cycle volatility differences between emerging and developed economies. We develop a multisector small open economy framework with heterogeneous firms and production linkages in which firms are subject to sectoral and firm-level TFP shocks and international prices shocks. Using sector-level, firm-level, and international trade data from various developed and emerging economies, we quantify the relevant model-based sufficient statistics. We find that differences in sectoral composition between emerging and developed economies can explain up to 77% of the excessive business cycle volatility in emerging economies, while disparities in the distribution of firms account for up to 9%, and the role of international prices shocks is negligible. Despite the significant influence of sectoral composition, the decrease in volatility observed in emerging economies over the past four decades cannot be attributed to changes in their economic structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104182"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145424721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Argentina: The honor student—By merit and by mistake. A natural experiment on “information effects” 阿根廷：优等生——有优点也有缺点。关于“信息效应”的自然实验
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104177
Oscar Meneses, Lorenzo Menna, Martin Tobal
{"title":"Argentina: The honor student—By merit and by mistake. A natural experiment on “information effects”","authors":"Oscar Meneses,&nbsp;Lorenzo Menna,&nbsp;Martin Tobal","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104177","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104177","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>On January 7, 2025, Argentina's EMBI spread plunged by over 114 basis points. J.P. Morgan later revealed that the decline was due to a technical error, creating a rare natural experiment—an exogenous shift in sovereign risk pricing. Because this error was neither anticipated nor related to Argentina's fundamentals or global conditions, the experiment provides a unique setting to identify the “information effect,” whereby investors update their beliefs in response to noisy signals embedded in price movements. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach and high-frequency (intraday) stock market data, we find that Argentine equities outperformed those of other EMEs during the error window, indicating that investors revised their asset valuations based on mispriced signals. These results underscore the importance of clear and timely communication in emerging market economies to prevent second-order effects that, despite solid fundamentals, can trigger herding behavior and macrofinancial instability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104177"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Service Trade, regional specialization, and welfare 服务贸易、区域专业化与社会福利
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104178
Yuancheng Han , Jorge Miranda-Pinto , Satoshi Tanaka
{"title":"Service Trade, regional specialization, and welfare","authors":"Yuancheng Han ,&nbsp;Jorge Miranda-Pinto ,&nbsp;Satoshi Tanaka","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104178","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104178","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How much does trade in services affect regional production specialization and welfare? Using unique Canadian trade data, we document that the size of inter-provincial service trade is comparable to that of good trade, and that net exports of services are highly correlated with the value-added share of services across provinces. With a spatial model featuring domestic and international trade, we quantify the effects of service trade. Our results highlight that domestic service trade significantly promotes regional specialization, with heterogeneous welfare gains that reduce regional disparities. Conversely, international service trade generates more uniform welfare gains across provinces.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104178"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile 贸易政策能改变性别平等吗？来自智利的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143
Utsa Banerjee , Luis Castro Peñarrieta , Pavel Chakraborty
{"title":"Can trade policy change gender equality? Evidence from Chile","authors":"Utsa Banerjee ,&nbsp;Luis Castro Peñarrieta ,&nbsp;Pavel Chakraborty","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do firms reorganize gender composition of their employment in response to trade shocks? Using novel data on gender composition of employment across several occupational groups for Chilean manufacturing firms matched with customs data for 1995–2007, a developing country with low gender equality, and utilizing the 1998 Chile–Mexico Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as the quasi-natural shock, we document the first evidence that the share of female white-collar workers increased by 10% for new exporters exporting to Mexico due to the FTA. This happened through a substitution effect from male to female high-skilled workers due to higher use of technology (both domestic and foreign), high-skilled non-production tasks, and reduction in discrimination. We also show that this increase in this share of white-collar female workers is due to a demand- rather than supply-side effect. Overall, we emphasize that trade policy can play an important role in addressing the gender gap in employment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104143"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements 重力的尾部：使用预期来量化经济一体化协议的贸易边际效应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145
Jeffrey H. Bergstrand , Matthew W. Clance , J.M.C. Santos Silva
{"title":"The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements","authors":"Jeffrey H. Bergstrand ,&nbsp;Matthew W. Clance ,&nbsp;J.M.C. Santos Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although there is evidence suggesting that the effects of trade liberalizations likely vary across the distribution of trade flows, trade economists have focused almost entirely on <em>conditional mean</em> estimates of their trade elasticities. We propose the novel use of Poisson-based <em>expectile regressions</em> to estimate the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalizations across the entire conditional distribution. Like standard Poisson regression, this method does not need the dependent variable to be logged, accommodates a mass of observations at zero, and is easy to implement, allowing the estimation of gravity equations with the standard three-way fixed effects specification. Using the proposed estimator, we find systematic evidence that trade liberalizations have larger effects at the lower tail of the conditional distribution. We then use the proposed method to investigate the causes of this heterogeneity, and our results suggest that the success of trade liberalizations strongly depends on potential for expansions along the extensive margin.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104145"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144865841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development 中国在印度的公路：交通基础设施对经济发展的影响
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140
Simon Alder
{"title":"Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development","authors":"Simon Alder","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104140","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>India and China followed different strategies in the design of their recent highway networks. India first focused on connecting the four largest economic centers of the country, the Golden Quadrilateral, while China had the explicit strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of transport infrastructure in India based on a general equilibrium trade framework. I compare the effect of the Golden Quadrilateral to a counterfactual network that connects India’s intermediate-sized cities. To construct the counterfactual network, I propose a heuristic network design algorithm to maximize aggregate real income net of road construction costs in the general equilibrium model, and I show that the heuristic algorithm provides a good approximation of the optimal network. The results suggest that the actual network led to sizable aggregate gains but unequal effects across regions. The income-maximizing counterfactual network is substantially larger than the actual Indian network, would imply further aggregate gains, and would benefit the lagging regions of India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104140"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144892229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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