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Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains? 美国贸易政策是否在重塑全球供应链？
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011
Caroline Freund , Aaditya Mattoo , Alen Mulabdic , Michele Ruta
{"title":"Is US trade policy reshaping global supply chains?","authors":"Caroline Freund ,&nbsp;Aaditya Mattoo ,&nbsp;Alen Mulabdic ,&nbsp;Michele Ruta","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the reshaping of supply chains using detailed US 10-digit import data between 2017 and 2022. The results show that while US-China decoupling in bilateral trade is real, supply chains remain intertwined with China. Over the period, China's share of US imports fell from 22 % to 16 % as a result of US tariffs. US imports from China are being replaced with imports from large, developing countries with revealed comparative advantage in a product. In strategic industries, countries replacing China tend to be deeply integrated in China's supply chains and are experiencing faster import growth from China. Put differently, to displace China on the export side, countries must embrace China's supply chains. There is no consistent evidence of reshoring but evidence of nearshoring to border nations. Despite the significant reshaping, China remained the top supplier of directly imported goods to the US in 2022.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104011"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142441126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The network origins of trade comovement 贸易关联的网络起源
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010
Justas Dainauskas
{"title":"The network origins of trade comovement","authors":"Justas Dainauskas","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I develop a production network model of the world economy that features <em>Transcendental Logarithmic</em> (a.k.a. translog) aggregators of varieties. This gives rise to variable substitution elasticities that consistent with the evidence are inversely related to the importer expenditure shares per exporter at the country-sector level. I quantify the model using data for 1970–2018 from 19 OECD economies and 30 sectors. Compared to the analogous constant elasticity version of the model, I find that the translog model amplifies international shock transmission between major trade partners and attenuates transmission elsewhere, which to an extent resolves the “trade comovement puzzle”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104010"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign risk and intangible investment 主权风险和无形投资
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009
Minjie Deng , Chang Liu
{"title":"Sovereign risk and intangible investment","authors":"Minjie Deng ,&nbsp;Chang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures the output and TFP losses from sovereign risk, considering firm-level intangible investment. Using Italian firm-level data, we show that firms reallocated from intangible assets to tangible assets during the 2011–2012 Italian sovereign debt crisis. This asset reallocation is more pronounced among small firms and high-leverage firms. This reallocation affects aggregate output and TFP. To explain the reallocation pattern and quantify the output and TFP losses, we build a sovereign default model incorporating firm intangible investment. In our model, sovereign risk deteriorates bank balance sheets, disrupting banks’ ability to finance firms. Firms with greater external financing needs are more exposed to sovereign risk. Facing tightening financial constraints, firms shift their resources towards tangibles because they can be used as collateral. We find that elevated sovereign risk explains 45% of the observed output losses and 31% of the TFP losses in Italy from 2011 to 2016.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104009"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms 贸易自由化与劳动力垄断：来自中国企业的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006
Illenin O. Kondo , Yao Amber Li , Wei Qian
{"title":"Trade liberalization and labor monopsony: Evidence from Chinese firms","authors":"Illenin O. Kondo ,&nbsp;Yao Amber Li ,&nbsp;Wei Qian","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that larger input tariff reductions were associated with lower labor markdowns in China, especially for skill-intensive firms. Guided by a stylized model of equilibrium labor market power, we leverage differences in the aggregate labor supply dynamics across labor markets – such as regional variations in China’s contemporaneous college expansion reforms – to that show trade-induced labor markdown decreased more in labor markets with more labor supply growth. Our estimates suggest that lower labor markdowns due to input trade liberalization offset China’s aggregate labor share decline by almost one-half percentage point in the early 2000s.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104006"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142326671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitical risk perceptions 地缘政治风险认知
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005
Yevheniia Bondarenko , Vivien Lewis , Matthias Rottner , Yves Schüler
{"title":"Geopolitical risk perceptions","authors":"Yevheniia Bondarenko ,&nbsp;Vivien Lewis ,&nbsp;Matthias Rottner ,&nbsp;Yves Schüler","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104005"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142358093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public debt and household inflation expectations 公共债务和家庭通胀预期
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003
Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri
{"title":"Public debt and household inflation expectations","authors":"Francesco Grigoli ,&nbsp;Damiano Sandri","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt news on household inflation expectations. People tend to underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt, while confidence in fiscal authorities plays a more limited role. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects but not with a greater risk of monetary finance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104003"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Imports and the CO2 emissions of firms 进口与企业的二氧化碳排放量
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104004
Anders Akerman , Rikard Forslid , Ossian Prane
{"title":"Imports and the CO2 emissions of firms","authors":"Anders Akerman ,&nbsp;Rikard Forslid ,&nbsp;Ossian Prane","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We explore how importing of intermediate goods affects the carbon intensity of firms in the Swedish manufacturing sector. By exploiting exogenous shocks to foreign export supply of intermediate goods, we estimate that a 10 percent increase in imports causes a 5.6 percent reduction in carbon intensity. Average carbon intensity among the firms in our sample between 2004 and 2016 decreased by around 50 percent, and our results suggest that import growth accounted for about a third of this decline. Exploring the mechanisms, we find evidence for both a technique effect and a product composition effect. Importing has a positive impact on productivity, scale of production, and abatement investments. It also encourages firms to focus more on their core products. We find no evidence for a pollution haven effect.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104004"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624001314/pdfft?md5=d1db05a07c37c19fa80674366e4c46d1&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624001314-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Costs of sovereign debt crises: Restructuring strategies and bank intermediation 主权债务危机的成本：重组战略与银行中介
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104002
Tamon Asonuma , Marcos Chamon , Aitor Erce , Akira Sasahara
{"title":"Costs of sovereign debt crises: Restructuring strategies and bank intermediation","authors":"Tamon Asonuma ,&nbsp;Marcos Chamon ,&nbsp;Aitor Erce ,&nbsp;Akira Sasahara","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in the growth of GDP, investment, bank credit to the private sector and capital flows. Our empirical findings show that the intensity of these losses depends on two aspects: whether the restructuring preempts a default and the extent of the reliance of the country’s private sector on domestic bank credit. Post-default restructurings are associated with worse outcomes than restructurings that take place preemptively without missing payments and going into default. Much of that difference is driven by restructurings in countries with relatively large banking sectors, in particular during post-default episodes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104002"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142163389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization 利用股市反应推断贸易自由化的风险敞口
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000
Andrew Greenland , Mihai Ion , John Lopresti , Peter K. Schott
{"title":"Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization","authors":"Andrew Greenland ,&nbsp;Mihai Ion ,&nbsp;John Lopresti ,&nbsp;Peter K. Schott","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104000","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service-sector responses and reveals dramatically different outcomes among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 104000"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The small open economy in a generalized gravity model 广义引力模型中的小型开放经济
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997
Svetlana Demidova , Konstantin Kucheryavyy , Takumi Naito , Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
{"title":"The small open economy in a generalized gravity model","authors":"Svetlana Demidova ,&nbsp;Konstantin Kucheryavyy ,&nbsp;Takumi Naito ,&nbsp;Andrés Rodríguez-Clare","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103997","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To provide sharp answers to basic questions in international trade, a standard approach is to focus on a small open economy (SOE). Whereas the classic tradition is to define a SOE as an economy that takes world prices as given, in the new trade literature it is defined instead as one that takes foreign-good prices and export demand schedules as given. We develop a gravity model that nests all its standard microfoundations and show how to take the limit so that an economy that becomes infinitesimally small behaves like a SOE. We then derive comparative statics and optimal policy for the SOE. Ignoring standard tax indeterminacies, optimal policy is characterized by export taxes and import tariffs equal to the (inverse) foreign demand and supply elasticities, respectively, and employment subsidies determined by the scale elasticity (under perfect competition) or markups (under monopolistic competition).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103997"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624001247/pdfft?md5=f2b6581e6fa0675c6bf07d0896a921c5&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624001247-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142128868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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