从宏观到微观：大型出口商应对全球危机

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037

Jean-Charles Bricongne , Juan Carluccio , Lionel Fontagné , Guillaume Gaulier , Sebastian Stumpner

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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用1993-2020年的月度企业进出口数据，我们发现了四个事实：(i)大型出口商与平均增长率的偏差解释了总波动的很大一部分；（ii）这些偏差的一个重要来源是主要出口国对共同冲击的较高负荷；（iii）前1%的出口商对全球金融危机和新冠肺炎危机的强烈反应导致了出口崩溃；（iv）对大规模需求冲击的更高弹性，而不是对全球价值链冲击的不同敞口，有助于这种更强的反应。结果表明，大型企业对共同冲击的特殊反应对总出口波动很重要，尤其与2008/2009年危机和大流行的贸易崩溃有关。

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From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises

Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993–2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters’ higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global value chain shocks, contributes to this stronger reaction. The results show that idiosyncratic reactions of large firms to common shocks matter for aggregate export fluctuations, and are especially relevant for the trade collapses of the 2008/2009 crisis and the Pandemic.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.