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Bank lending and firm internal capital markets following a deglobalization shock 去全球化冲击后的银行贷款和企业内部资本市场
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119
Björn Imbierowicz , Arne Nagengast , Esteban Prieto , Ursula Vogel
{"title":"Bank lending and firm internal capital markets following a deglobalization shock","authors":"Björn Imbierowicz ,&nbsp;Arne Nagengast ,&nbsp;Esteban Prieto ,&nbsp;Ursula Vogel","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104119","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs). We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about future losses. More prudent banks reduced their credit more extensively, and less profitable subsidiaries experienced greater reductions. However, UK subsidiaries of large MNCs, with access to internal capital markets, offset this credit supply shock through internal funding, shielding them from negative real effects. Our findings underscore that while international financial frictions following deglobalization shocks can imply negative real effects, firms integrated into global networks mitigate these impacts through internal capital markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104119"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data 英国脱欧对劳动力需求的实际影响：来自企业层面数据的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129
Hang Do , Kiet Tuan Duong , Luu Duc Toan Huynh , Nam T. Vu
{"title":"The Real effects of Brexit on labor demand: Evidence from firm-level data","authors":"Hang Do ,&nbsp;Kiet Tuan Duong ,&nbsp;Luu Duc Toan Huynh ,&nbsp;Nam T. Vu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104129","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the distance to the Irish border of UK firms that have not changed their location since the 2016 Referendum to isolate the effects of Brexit at the firm level, we find that Brexit implementation in 2020 caused exposed firms to cut their workforce by up to 15.7% on average relative to non-exposed firms. These exposed firms are also more likely to have lower growth expectations and more likely to increase their research and development (R&amp;D) expenditure. In addition, having ex-ante trade exposure, either with or outside the EU, can help alleviate such negative effects of Brexit. Such results highlight the role of trade exposure and the expectation channel, and support the hypothesis that firms prioritize innovations in response to Brexit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104129"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A search and learning model of export dynamics 出口动态的搜索与学习模型
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155
Jonathan Eaton , Marcela Eslava , David Jinkins , C.J. Krizan , James Tybout
{"title":"A search and learning model of export dynamics","authors":"Jonathan Eaton ,&nbsp;Marcela Eslava ,&nbsp;David Jinkins ,&nbsp;C.J. Krizan ,&nbsp;James Tybout","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm’s customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through “market amnesia” would cost Colombian exporters US$14.2 billion, over twice annual exports to the U.S. About a quarter of this reflects lost future sales to current customers; the rest stems from the cost of relearning product appeal and regaining visibility. The frictions we estimate slow trade’s response to shocks: the 10-year export sales response to an exchange rate shock is 48 percent larger than the 1-year response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104155"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144913124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia 量化宽松与安全资产供给：来自国际债券安全溢价的证据
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146
Jens H.E. Christensen , Nikola N. Mirkov , Xin Zhang
{"title":"Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia","authors":"Jens H.E. Christensen ,&nbsp;Nikola N. Mirkov ,&nbsp;Xin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank’s bond purchases in the 2015–2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all four countries, highlighting an international spillover channel through which QE programs reduce bond safety premia by expanding the supply of truly safe assets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104146"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144865842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banks’ market capital and the international risk taking channel of US monetary policy 银行市场资本与美国货币政策的国际风险承担渠道
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104099
Stefan Avdjiev , Jose Maria Serena
{"title":"Banks’ market capital and the international risk taking channel of US monetary policy","authors":"Stefan Avdjiev ,&nbsp;Jose Maria Serena","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104099","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104099","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We demonstrate that banks’ market capital is a key determinant of the strength of the international risk-taking channel of US monetary policy. The impact of US monetary policy on international risk-taking is greater for banks with low market capital. The effect of market capital exists in addition to the previously documented effect of regulatory capital, which works in the opposite direction. As a result, the international risk-taking channel of monetary policy is most powerful for banks that have a combination of high regulatory capital and low market capital.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104099"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144167167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Industrial development and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s WTO accession 产业发展与贸易政策不确定性：来自中国加入WTO的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106
Weidi Yuan , Difei Ouyang
{"title":"Industrial development and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s WTO accession","authors":"Weidi Yuan ,&nbsp;Difei Ouyang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104106","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how the elimination of trade policy uncertainty around WTO accession affects China’s manufacturing sector. We find a strong cross-sectional relationship between reduced uncertainty and input and output expansion by industry. The growth effect is particularly pronounced in the most labor-intensive industries in line with China’s comparative advantage, and more so in regions with lower shipping costs and a large manufacturing base. A decomposition reveals that the industry expansion can be traced to the extensive margin of new firm entry—consistent with firm-level evidence showing only a modest response among incumbent firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104106"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144240129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Low interest rates, capital misallocation and welfare 低利率、资本错配和福利
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104096
Anastasios Dosis
{"title":"Low interest rates, capital misallocation and welfare","authors":"Anastasios Dosis","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how the real interest rate affects the (mis)allocation of capital in a small open economy characterized by asymmetric information in the financial market. Low interest rates allow low-productivity firms to enter the pool of borrowers, imposing an information externality that negatively impacts highly productive firms and forces them to reduce their investments. This suggests that, in some cases, although lowering the interest rate can increase total investment and output, it does not necessarily improve welfare. The results align with recent empirical evidence highlighting the adverse effects of low interest rates in southern European countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104096"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring foreign exposure 测量外来接触
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126
Jean Imbs , Laurent Pauwels
{"title":"Measuring foreign exposure","authors":"Jean Imbs ,&nbsp;Laurent Pauwels","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce a model-based approximation for assessing foreign exposure via direct and indirect trade. In the model, exposure can be approximated by the fraction of production sold abroad, either directly or indirectly. Simulations show that this ratio accurately reflects the responses of value added to foreign supply shocks across most of the parameter space. It also effectively captures the responses of value added to foreign demand or trade shocks for a more restricted range of parameters. Conversely, other well-known metrics of foreign exposure do not perform well in the simulations. Data show that our measure of foreign exposure correlates significantly with various measures of economic activity, even in service sectors generally thought to be insulated from foreign influences. In contrast, these correlations are either insignificant or incorrectly signed when alternative measures of foreign exposure are used.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104126"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144587840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks 不惜一切代价去理解一位央行行长——用神经网络嵌入他们的话语
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101
Martin Baumgärtner , Johannes Zahner
{"title":"Whatever it takes to understand a central banker — Embedding their words using neural networks","authors":"Martin Baumgärtner ,&nbsp;Johannes Zahner","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dictionary-based methods represent the most commonly used approach for quantifying the qualitative information from (central bank) communication. In this paper, we propose machine learning models that generates embeddings from words and documents. Embeddings are multidimensional numerical text representations that capture the underlying semantic relationships within text. Using a novel corpus of 22,000 documents from 128 central banks, we generate the first domain-specific embeddings for central bank communication that outperform dictionaries and existing embeddings on tasks such as predicting monetary policy shocks. We further demonstrate the efficacy of our embeddings by constructing an index that tracks the extent to which Federal Reserve communications align with an inflation-targeting stance. Our empirical results indicate that deviations from inflation-targeting language substantially affect market-based expectations and influence monetary policy decisions, significantly reducing the inflation response parameter in an estimated Taylor rule.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104101"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of currencies in external balance sheets 货币在外部资产负债表中的作用
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104105
Cían Allen , Luciana Juvenal
{"title":"The role of currencies in external balance sheets","authors":"Cían Allen ,&nbsp;Luciana Juvenal","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper constructs a dataset on the currency composition of external balance sheets for 50 countries from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal the persistent dominance of the US dollar and euro in global external positions, while many emerging markets have shifted from <em>short</em> to <em>long</em> foreign-currency exposures. This transformation, marking a departure from the “original sin” phenomenon, reflects reduced foreign-currency debt liabilities and increased foreign-currency assets. We introduce financial exchange rate indices to measure valuation effects, documenting that substantial wealth transfers across countries mitigated global imbalances during the 2008 financial crisis, yet exacerbated them during the COVID-19 shock.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104105"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144204764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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