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Escaping the trade war: Finance and relational supply chains in the adjustment to trade policy shocks 逃离贸易战：适应贸易政策冲击的金融和关系供应链
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103987
Felipe Benguria , Felipe Saffie
{"title":"Escaping the trade war: Finance and relational supply chains in the adjustment to trade policy shocks","authors":"Felipe Benguria ,&nbsp;Felipe Saffie","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The impact of the 2018–2019 trade war on total US exports depends on the direct effect of foreign retaliatory tariffs as well as on the ability of US exporters to reorganize global supply chains and redirect exports to other markets, away from retaliating countries. We document that the sharp decline in US exports to retaliating countries was compensated by a gradual increase in exports to other markets. We then develop a model of export reallocation to study the role of financial constraints and the persistence or stickiness of trade relationships as underlying mechanisms shaping both the direct impact of retaliatory tariffs and the extent of the reallocation toward alternative markets. In line with the predictions of the model, we find that in industries with high leverage, Chinese retaliatory tariffs led to a stronger decline in US exports to China but a larger increase in exports to the rest of the world. We find a similar pattern among industries with less persistent trade relationships. Finally, we document that other potential mechanisms do not appear to be economically and/or statistically significant in shaping the response to tariffs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103987"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141960922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The widening of cross-currency basis: When increased FX swap demand meets limits of arbitrage 交叉货币基差扩大：当外汇掉期需求增加遇到套利限制时
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103984
Nadav Ben Zeev , Daniel Nathan
{"title":"The widening of cross-currency basis: When increased FX swap demand meets limits of arbitrage","authors":"Nadav Ben Zeev ,&nbsp;Daniel Nathan","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103984","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103984","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper examines customer demand-side factors that affect deviation from covered interest rate parity (CIP) with respect to the dollar (<em>i.e.</em>, cross-currency basis), particularly when arbitrageurs are constrained. Using novel detailed daily transaction-level data on the universe of Israeli institutional investors (IIs), we employ a granular instrumental variable (GIV) estimation to investigate how IIs’ FX swap demand affects CIP deviation. Our findings demonstrate that a one standard deviation shock to IIs’ FX swap demand when capital is abundant has no effect on IIs’ basis. However, when capital is scarce, the demand shock produces a significant reduction of 12 basis points in IIs’ basis. Our results showcase how limits of arbitrage, together with demand shocks from a large customer base, can drive CIP deviations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103984"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141847174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China 中国企业境外债券发行和企业间贷款
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103975
Yi Huang , Ugo Panizza , Richard Portes
{"title":"Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China","authors":"Yi Huang ,&nbsp;Ugo Panizza ,&nbsp;Richard Portes","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103975","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103975","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We use firm-level data to analyze international bond issuance by Chinese non-financial corporations, distinguishing those by sectors classed as ‘risky’. Dollar issuance is positively correlated with the differential between domestic and foreign interest rates, and this effect is particularly strong for firms in risky sectors. Strikingly, firms in risky sectors use the proceeds to do more interfirm lending than firms in non-risky sectors. Moreover, this lending rose significantly after the authorities sought to restrict the financial activities of risky sectors in 2008–09. Firms in risky sectors compound risk by engaging in speculative activities that mimic the behavior of financial institutions while escaping prudential regulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103975"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141997943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dollar reserves and U.S. yields: Identifying the price impact of official flows 美元储备与美国收益率：确定官方资金流动对价格的影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103974
Rashad Ahmed , Alessandro Rebucci
{"title":"Dollar reserves and U.S. yields: Identifying the price impact of official flows","authors":"Rashad Ahmed ,&nbsp;Alessandro Rebucci","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103974","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103974","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>By exploiting changes in the volatility of U.S. Treasury yields and foreign official (FO) flows into U.S. Treasuries after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, we identify a FO flow shock via heteroskedasticity in a structural VAR. We estimate that a $100B FO flow shock moves 5 and 10-year U.S. yields by about 100 basis points within a month. An event study of the intraday U.S. Treasury yield curve response to Japan’s FX intervention in September 2022 validates our VAR estimates. Our findings imply that a 1% reduction in the Dollar share of China’s reserves could raise long-term U.S. yields by about 20 basis points.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103974"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Underinvestment and capital misallocation under sovereign risk 主权风险下的投资不足和资本配置不当
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103973
Carlos Esquivel
{"title":"Underinvestment and capital misallocation under sovereign risk","authors":"Carlos Esquivel","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103973","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103973","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Capital and its sectoral allocation affect default incentives. Under general assumptions, default risk is decreasing in the total stock of capital and increasing in the share of capital allocated to non-tradable production. This implies that when competitive households make all investment decisions capital has two externalities: a <em>capital-stock externality</em> and a <em>portfolio externality</em>. These hamper the ability of a benevolent government to make optimal borrowing and default decisions and are exacerbated during periods of distress. Competitive equilibria feature underinvestment, larger non-traded sectors, more default, and lower debt and consumption than a centralized planner’s allocation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103973"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624001004/pdfft?md5=47d825638e38f198f2a6bcf61b279cc7&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624001004-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141950711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
All aboard: The effects of port development 全体登船：港口发展的影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103963
César Ducruet , Réka Juhász , Dávid Krisztián Nagy , Claudia Steinwender
{"title":"All aboard: The effects of port development","authors":"César Ducruet ,&nbsp;Réka Juhász ,&nbsp;Dávid Krisztián Nagy ,&nbsp;Claudia Steinwender","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Seaports facilitate the fast flow of goods across space, but ports also entail local costs borne by host cities. We use the introduction of containerized shipping to explore the effects of port development. At the local level, we find that seaport development increases city population by making a city more attractive, but this market access effect is offset by costs which make the city less attractive. At the aggregate level, we find that the local costs associated with port development are heterogeneous across cities and reduce aggregate welfare gains. Net of the costs, our results suggest that containerization in seaports increased world welfare by 3.4%.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103963"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141638230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When are tariff cuts not enough? Heterogeneous effects of trade preferences for the least developed countries 关税削减何时不够？贸易优惠对最不发达国家的异质性影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103971
Fabien Forge, Jason Garred, Kyae Lim Kwon
{"title":"When are tariff cuts not enough? Heterogeneous effects of trade preferences for the least developed countries","authors":"Fabien Forge,&nbsp;Jason Garred,&nbsp;Kyae Lim Kwon","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Poor countries export a remarkably narrow range of products. To what extent have trade preferences targeted to the least developed countries (LDCs) changed this situation? We study a large set of recent reforms to the LDC trade preferences offered by OECD countries. Leveraging trade policy variation by importer, exporter, product and year, we show that tariff reductions have increased the prevalence of positive trade flows. However, new flows have been far more likely to emerge in cases with previous ‘export experience’, i.e. where countries already exported the same product to another OECD country, or exported a related product to the same importer. So this wave of tariff cuts for LDCs has resulted in an extension of existing patterns of trade rather than wider export diversification.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103971"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624000989/pdfft?md5=93f95081d0af1343b3c560d5a03847e4&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624000989-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141690430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Preparing for export opportunities 为出口机会做准备
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103968
Claudio Labanca , Danielken Molina , Marc-Andreas Muendler
{"title":"Preparing for export opportunities","authors":"Claudio Labanca ,&nbsp;Danielken Molina ,&nbsp;Marc-Andreas Muendler","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103968","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103968","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates how firms prepare their workforce to export. We employ a novel identification strategy to isolate how a firm’s hiring decision at home responds to export opportunities that arise from exogenous changes to product demand abroad. Combining Brazilian exporter and linked employer–employee data, we show that firms act on better chances to export by hiring workers with prior experience at exporting firms. We find that firms concentrate this preparatory hiring of experts in skilled blue-collar occupations and that firms separate from the previously hired experts when the predicted export-market participation fails to materialize. The evidence is consistent with the tenet that a few exporting experts in select occupations shape a firm’s competitive advantage.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103968"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624000953/pdfft?md5=c5b4df15aa1c6e5bad39d2171f2e39ed&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624000953-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141712937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
US trade policy and the US dollar 美国贸易政策与美元
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103970
Makram Khalil, Felix Strobel
{"title":"US trade policy and the US dollar","authors":"Makram Khalil,&nbsp;Felix Strobel","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103970","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103970","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We show that the US dollar response to trade policy uncertainty (TPU) is key to assessing the impact of US trade policy. Employing structural vector autoregressive models, we find that TPU shocks supported a multilateral USD appreciation during the 2018–19 trade tensions between the US and some of its major trading partners. We rationalize this in a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions that links the increase in TPU to rising demand for safe USD assets. Our findings suggest that the TPU-induced appreciation of the USD in 2018–19 significantly counteracted US trade policy attempts to raise US competitiveness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103970"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199624000977/pdfft?md5=9138e486015890dc617041eef9b2a2c8&pid=1-s2.0-S0022199624000977-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141715110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bond convenience curves and funding costs 债券便利曲线和筹资成本
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103969
Juuso Nissinen , Markus Sihvonen
{"title":"Bond convenience curves and funding costs","authors":"Juuso Nissinen ,&nbsp;Markus Sihvonen","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103969","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103969","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience curves using a model in which arbitrageurs face higher funding costs on bonds with credit risk and bond demand shocks induce funding risk. We provide novel causal evidence for our mechanism using variation in funding costs generated through exogenous haircut category changes. Changes in convenience yields represent a key transmission channel of unconventional monetary policy to bond yields.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103969"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141728934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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