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The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets 摩擦性劳动力市场中贸易对竞争的促进作用
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028
Hamid Firooz
{"title":"The pro-competitive consequences of trade in frictional labor markets","authors":"Hamid Firooz","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What are the pro-competitive consequences of trade <em>in frictional labor markets</em>? This paper develops and estimates a dynamic general equilibrium trade model to show that the interplay between endogenously variable markups in product markets and frictions in labor markets has important implications for aggregate as well as distributional consequences of trade. In particular, I show that once markups are allowed to respond to trade liberalization, unemployment and residual wage inequality rise almost three times more than in a model with constant markups (in the steady state). The presence of labor market frictions makes the pro-competitive gains from trade liberalization negative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104028"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine 政治冲击和通胀预期：来自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的证据
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029
Lena Dräger , Klaus Gründler , Niklas Potrafke
{"title":"Political shocks and inflation expectations: Evidence from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine","authors":"Lena Dräger ,&nbsp;Klaus Gründler ,&nbsp;Niklas Potrafke","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How do global supply-side shocks influence macroeconomic expectations? We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to identify the effect of a global political shock, which translated into a momentous supply-side shock, on inflation expectations. Collecting a unique survey among tenured economics professors in Germany, we find sizable effects on inflation expectations and monetary policy recommendations. A comparison with a representative sample of households shows that experts’ expectations adjust faster and to a larger degree to the shock. Text analyses on open-ended questions reveal that the effects are caused by supply-side models underlying experts’ formation of expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104029"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099460","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile 20世纪初的美国例外论：汽车的生产、贸易和传播
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025
Dong Cheng , Mario J. Crucini , Hyunseung Oh , Hakan Yilmazkuday
{"title":"Early 20th century American exceptionalism: Production, trade and diffusion of the automobile","authors":"Dong Cheng ,&nbsp;Mario J. Crucini ,&nbsp;Hyunseung Oh ,&nbsp;Hakan Yilmazkuday","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper curates historical data on the quantity and unit value of automobiles exported from the United States to 23 destination countries along with natural and official barriers relevant to automobiles to account for the 46:1 automobile adoption gap between the US and the median country by 1929. For the median destination country, the export markup, tariff, and shipping cost are each roughly 20% ad-valorem-equivalent distortions, the retail distribution wedge is about 30%, and the foreign user cost wedge (based on gasoline taxes) is above 100%. Eliminating these price wedges and income differences relative to the US is shown to account for over 80% of the adoption gap. The estimated reduced-form adoption model accounts for much of the time series variation with relative price declines and income growth driving US and global adoption upward over time and the Great Depression reversing some of these gains at roughly constant relative prices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104025"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of import competition across occupations 跨行业进口竞争的影响
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001
Sergi Basco , Maxime Liégey , Martí Mestieri , Gabriel Smagghue
{"title":"The effect of import competition across occupations","authors":"Sergi Basco ,&nbsp;Maxime Liégey ,&nbsp;Martí Mestieri ,&nbsp;Gabriel Smagghue","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We empirically examine the effect of import competition on worker earnings across occupations. To guide our analysis, we develop a stylized model that emphasizes industries using occupations in different intensities. We show that an occupational exposure index summarizes the overall exposure of an occupation to industry-level trade shocks. Proxying these industry-level trade shocks with rising Chinese competition and using nationally representative matched employer–employee French panel data from 1993 through 2015, we obtain evidence consistent with the predictions of the model. We find that workers initially employed in occupations highly exposed to Chinese competition – as measured by our occupational exposure index – experience larger declines in earnings. The magnitude of our estimates implies that the effect of rising Chinese competition on workers’ earnings due to differences in workers’ occupations is of comparable magnitude to the effect of workers’ sector of employment. This finding suggests that accounting for the distributional effects of trade across occupations is quantitatively important.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104001"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks 国际生产网络和金融冲击的传播
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039
Sihao Chen
{"title":"International production networks and the propagation of financial shocks","authors":"Sihao Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how external sector-level financial shocks are transmitted to a small open economy through international production networks. Using a multi-sector small open economy model, I show analytically that a financial shock to an external production sector affects downstream sectors (through a price effect) and upstream sectors (through a direct demand effect and a complementarity or substitution effect). These effects work through international production networks, affecting the small country’s output and GDP. Quantitatively, I construct U.S. sector-level excess bond premia and estimate key parameters for simulations. The simulation exercises show that U.S. financial shocks account for a significant proportion of the fluctuations in Mexico’s GDP during the global financial crisis. International production networks amplify the real effect of external financial shocks by a factor of at least three during the crisis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104039"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks 国内联系和商品价格冲击的传导
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041
Damian Romero
{"title":"Domestic linkages and the transmission of commodity price shocks","authors":"Damian Romero","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the role of input–output (IO) linkages in the propagation of commodity price shocks. We present empirical evidence documenting a positive correlation between commodity prices and GDP that decreases in the intensity of production linkages between the commodity sector and the rest. In a model for a small open economy, stronger linkages reduce the demand for inputs by the commodity sector, dampening the response of real GDP after a positive commodity price shock. A calibrated version of the model shows that the elasticity of GDP would be 6% lower if the commodity sector had been 5% more connected.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104041"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143099008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Avoiding sovereign default contagion: A normative analysis 避免主权违约传染：一个规范分析
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040
Sergio de Ferra , Enrico Mallucci
{"title":"Avoiding sovereign default contagion: A normative analysis","authors":"Sergio de Ferra ,&nbsp;Enrico Mallucci","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Should debtor countries support each other during sovereign debt crises? We answer this question through the lens of a two-country sovereign-default model that we calibrate to the euro-area periphery. First, we look at cross-country bailouts. We find that whenever agents anticipate them, bailouts induce higher borrowings, and yet still enhance welfare. Second, we look at the borrowing choices of a global central borrower. We find that central borrower’s policies reduce debt and improve the joint welfare of the two countries. Yet, welfare gains are uneven. In our baseline specification, one of the two countries sees a decline of welfare under the planner’s rules. We conclude that central planner policies may be politically unfeasible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104040"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade flows and exchange rates: Importers, exporters and products 贸易流动和汇率：进口商、出口商和产品
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044
Michael B. Devereux , Wei Dong , Ben Tomlin
{"title":"Trade flows and exchange rates: Importers, exporters and products","authors":"Michael B. Devereux ,&nbsp;Wei Dong ,&nbsp;Ben Tomlin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using highly-disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Moreover, we find that these margins are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate and that larger firms are substantially more responsive in terms of both the number of trade partners and products. These findings are then rationalized in a model of international trade with endogenous matching between heterogeneous importers and exporters. Simulations of the model highlight: (1) a new channel through which exchange rates influence short-run trade flows; and (2) the importance of firm heterogeneity—on both sides of trade transactions—in the adjustment process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"154 ","pages":"Article 104044"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143158972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The standard errors of persistence 持久性的标准错误
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027
Timothy G. Conley, Morgan Kelly
{"title":"The standard errors of persistence","authors":"Timothy G. Conley,&nbsp;Morgan Kelly","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they rely on data that often exhibit extreme spatial trends and autocorrelation, suggesting that their unusually large t-statistics may be due to inadequately controlling for spurious correlation. To analyze this we introduce a new regression procedure and two diagnostic tests of no treatment effect: (a) a placebo test where the treatment is replaced with spatial noise and (b) a synthetic outcomes test of the hypothesis that the outcome is generated by a trend plus a spatial noise process independent of the treatment. We then show how reliable regression results can be obtained by adding a low dimensional spatial basis to the regression of interest, and applying a large cluster standard error correction. Examining 30 persistence studies in leading journals we find that few approach significance at conventional levels. Our procedure applies to regressions with spatial observations more generally and is implemented in an open source package.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104027"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142745180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada 帝国计划：战时加拿大的贸易政策
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024
Markus Lampe , Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke , Lorenz Reiter , Yoto V. Yotov
{"title":"The Empire project: Trade policy in interwar Canada","authors":"Markus Lampe ,&nbsp;Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke ,&nbsp;Lorenz Reiter ,&nbsp;Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tariff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have heterogeneous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on Canadian imports was large.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"153 ","pages":"Article 104024"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142720341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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