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Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy? 全球化是否改变了美国货币政策的国际传导？
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139
Maximilian Boeck , Lorenzo Mori
{"title":"Has globalization changed the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy?","authors":"Maximilian Boeck ,&nbsp;Lorenzo Mori","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially increased over the past three decades, peaking during the Great Recession before stabilizing – a timing that aligns well with observed trends in globalization and slowbalization dynamics. Cross-country analysis and counterfactual simulations suggest that the estimated amplification of the spillover effects over time has been primarily driven by the surge in trade integration, while rising financial integration has contributed only modestly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104139"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144780981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks 实际汇率和净贸易动态：金融和贸易冲击
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141
Marcos Mac Mullen , Soo Kyung Woo
{"title":"Real exchange rate and net trade dynamics: Financial and trade shocks","authors":"Marcos Mac Mullen ,&nbsp;Soo Kyung Woo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104141","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the drivers of the US real exchange rate (RER), with a particular focus on its comovement with net trade (NT) flows. We consider the entire spectrum of frequencies, as the low-frequency variation accounts for 62 and 64 percent of the unconditional variance of the RER and NT, respectively. We develop a generalization of the standard international business cycle model that successfully rationalizes the joint dynamics of the RER and NT while accounting for the major puzzles of the RER. We find that, while financial shocks are necessary to capture high frequency variation in the RER, trade shocks are essential for the lower frequency fluctuations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104141"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144895690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tickets to the global market: First US patent award and Chinese firm exports 通往全球市场的门票：首个美国专利奖和中国企业出口
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124
Robin Kaiji Gong , Yao Amber Li , Kalina Manova , Stephen Teng Sun
{"title":"Tickets to the global market: First US patent award and Chinese firm exports","authors":"Robin Kaiji Gong ,&nbsp;Yao Amber Li ,&nbsp;Kalina Manova ,&nbsp;Stephen Teng Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104124","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate how international patent activity enables firms from emerging economies to thrive in the global marketplace. We match Chinese customs data to US patent records, and leverage the quasi-random assignment of USPTO patent examiners to identify the causal effect of a US patent grant on the subsequent export performance of Chinese firms. Successful first-time patent applicants achieve significantly higher export growth, compared to otherwise similar first-time applicants that failed. This effect operates only in small part through market protection for technologically patent-related products in the US, and is largely driven by expansion in other markets. The response across destinations and products reveals that a US patent award signals the Chinese firm’s capacity to produce high-quality products and credibility to honor contracts, mitigating information frictions in international trade. There is little evidence for the relaxation of financial constraints or the promotion of follow-on innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104124"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Household responses to trade shocks 家庭对贸易冲击的反应
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144
Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique , Peter Levell , Matthias Parey
{"title":"Household responses to trade shocks","authors":"Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique ,&nbsp;Peter Levell ,&nbsp;Matthias Parey","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the impact of Chinese import competition in the 2000s on workers and their households in England and Wales. We document both the direct employment changes of individuals affected by trade exposure, as well as the employment response of individuals whose partner is exposed to trade. We find substantial differences by gender. Men respond to import competition by increasing labour force participation at older ages, and by moving into self-employment. This is true both in response to their own trade exposure, and as an ‘added worker effect’ when their partner is exposed to the shock. By contrast, we find no such response for women, who do not increase labour supply following shocks affecting their partners. Male workers exposed to import competition largely enter self-employed jobs in historically male-dominated occupations, as do men reacting to shocks affecting their partners.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104144"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144913125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Skill-biased imports, skill acquisition, and migration 以技能为导向的进口、技能获取和移民
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128
Jingting Fan , Lei Li
{"title":"Skill-biased imports, skill acquisition, and migration","authors":"Jingting Fan ,&nbsp;Lei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Imported capital goods, which embody skill-complementary technologies, can increase the supply of skills in developing countries. Focusing on China and using a shift-share design, we show that city-level capital goods import growth increases the local skill share and that both skill acquisition and migration play a role. We develop and quantify a spatial equilibrium model with these two mechanisms to examine the aggregate effects of capital goods imports, accounting for trade and migration linkages between cities. Counterfactual experiments suggest that the growth in capital goods imports in China between 2000 and 2010 led to a 3.1–7.3 million increase in the stock of college graduates, representing 4.4–10.4% of the total increase over this period, with the increase disproportionately occurring in coastal regions. These endogenous skill supply responses reduce by half the increase in the aggregate skill premium due to capital goods imports.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104128"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism 当地的全球监管机构：贸易、采购和社会行动主义的国际化
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116
Pamina Koenig , Sebastian Krautheim , Claudius Löhnert , Thierry Verdier
{"title":"Local global watchdogs: Trade, sourcing and the internationalization of social activism","authors":"Pamina Koenig ,&nbsp;Sebastian Krautheim ,&nbsp;Claudius Löhnert ,&nbsp;Thierry Verdier","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104116","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>NGO campaigns criticizing firms for infringements along their internationalized value chains are a salient feature of economic globalization. We argue that understanding the international patterns of NGO campaigns requires accounting for the geography of their targets’ economic activities. We propose a model of global sourcing and international trade in which heterogeneous NGOs campaign against heterogeneous firms in response to infringements along their value chains. We find that campaigns are determined by a <em>triadic</em> gravity equation involving the country of the NGO, the country of the firm as well as the sourcing country. Importantly, independent of the location of the NGO, trade costs between the supplier and the firm shape the patterns of NGO campaigns. We use recently available data to estimate our triadic gravity equation at the NGO level and find strong support for this prediction as well as for other predictions specific to our modeling approach.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104116"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regional content requirements and market power: Lessons from CUSFTA 区域内容要求与市场力量：中美自贸协定的经验教训
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104097
Wanyu Chung , Carlo Perroni
{"title":"Regional content requirements and market power: Lessons from CUSFTA","authors":"Wanyu Chung ,&nbsp;Carlo Perroni","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Focusing on the 1989 Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA), we examine how regional content requirements in Free Trade Areas (FTAs) affect competition and prices in intermediate goods markets. Content requirements in FTAs shelter firms from competition more than an equivalent trade-protection tariff would. We document patterns in US industry-level census data and Canadian product-level export data that align with theoretical predictions: stricter and binding content requirements are linked to higher prices and more firm entry. These results underscore the role of content requirements in shaping market structure and market power, with implications for the choice of preferential trade arrangements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104097"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time 不同国家和不同时期的人口结构和实际利率
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127
Carlos Carvalho , Andrea Ferrero , Felipe Mazin , Fernanda Nechio
{"title":"Demographics and real interest rates across countries and over time","authors":"Carlos Carvalho ,&nbsp;Andrea Ferrero ,&nbsp;Felipe Mazin ,&nbsp;Fernanda Nechio","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104127","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore implications of demographic trends for real interest rates across countries and over time in a tractable multicountry model with imperfect capital mobility. We calibrate it to examine how the interaction of international financial integration and both domestic and foreign demographics shapes low-frequency movements in a country’s real rate. In more financially integrated countries, real rates are more sensitive to global developments than to domestic factors. We estimate panel error-correction models relating real rates to various drivers, imposing some structure informed by the model. Empirical results confirm global factors and domestic demographics are robust determinants of real rates. Alternative specifications highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying financial integration and a broad set of real rate drivers. Both model and empirical results suggest demographic trends explain a meaningful share of the global decline in real rates. Given projections, demographics should continue to exert downward pressure on real rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104127"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144549438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign Debt Disclosure 主权债务披露
IF 4 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118
Bulent Guler , Yasin Kürşat Önder , Temel Taskin
{"title":"Sovereign Debt Disclosure","authors":"Bulent Guler ,&nbsp;Yasin Kürşat Önder ,&nbsp;Temel Taskin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilution problem. Thus, contrary to conventional wisdom, this switch generates welfare losses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104118"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes 固定汇率制度下的产出差异
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115
Yao Chen , Felix Ward
{"title":"Output divergence in fixed exchange rate regimes","authors":"Yao Chen ,&nbsp;Felix Ward","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104115","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which accords with the former’s greater exposure to international arbitrage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"157 ","pages":"Article 104115"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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