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Dynamic trade, education and intergenerational inequality 动态贸易、教育和代际不平等
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103967
Han Yang
{"title":"Dynamic trade, education and intergenerational inequality","authors":"Han Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103967","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I present a dynamic trade model spanning many countries to explore the transitional paths of trade-induced inequality. By incorporating capital-skill complementarity, human capital accumulation, and capital accumulation, this paper examines the exact transitional path following a shift from autarky to trade. It reveals that trade increases the skill premium, skill share, and real wages for both skilled and unskilled workers in the majority of countries at the steady state. However, the short-term impact of trade on inequality is more pronounced. The exact transitional path indicates that the dynamic of trade-induced inequality is influenced by the flexibility in adjusting factor supplies during the transition at different stages, and education alleviates approximately 50% of trade-induced inequality in the long run. Furthermore, the analysis illuminates the observed patterns of skill premium in recent trade liberalization episodes in Mexico, China, and South Korea, and raises the possibility that globalization may intensify intergenerational inequality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103967"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141605084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade agreements when profits matter 利润重要时的贸易协定
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103966
Monika Mrázová
{"title":"Trade agreements when profits matter","authors":"Monika Mrázová","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103966","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103966","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper suggests a rationale for the GATT/WTO ban on export subsidies by showing that, in a linear Cournot profit-shifting model in which countries invest in a policy infrastructure before imposing trade policy, an agreement banning export subsidies tends to be more self-enforcing than one banning tariffs. Oligopoly introduces asymmetry between import tariffs and export subsidies: terms-of-trade and profit-shifting effects run in the same direction for import tariffs but in opposite directions for export subsidies. This asymmetry and the fact that it takes time for countries to change their trade policy infrastructure imply that the payoffs on the off-equilibrium path under an import-tariff-only agreement tend to be lower than those on the off-equilibrium path under an export-subsidy-only agreement. Specifically, punishment with tariffs is harsher than punishment with subsidies. When the set of instruments is restricted to import tariffs, a trade agreement needs to neutralize both the terms-of-trade and profit-shifting externalities.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"152 ","pages":"Article 103966"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002219962400093X/pdfft?md5=3626f43f84e5e50206bbbebb845fa224&pid=1-s2.0-S002219962400093X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141689475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Capital controls and trade policy 资本管制和贸易政策
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103965
Simon P. Lloyd , Emile A. Marin
{"title":"Capital controls and trade policy","authors":"Simon P. Lloyd ,&nbsp;Emile A. Marin","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How does optimal capital-flow management change with prevailing trade policies? We study the joint optimal determination of capital controls and trade tariffs in a two-country, two-good model with trade in goods and assets. Because countries are large in both markets, a country-planner can achieve higher domestic welfare by departing from free trade in addition to levying capital controls, despite the cooperative optimal allocation being efficient. However, time variation in the optimal tariff induces households to over- or under-borrow through its effects on the path of the real exchange rate. As a result, optimal capital controls are generally smaller when trade policy is constrained (i.e., by a Free-Trade Agreement), but, absent retaliation, can be larger depending on the paths of underlying fundamentals.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103965"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141605224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Consumption, exchange rate, and external adjustment during a crisis 危机期间的消费、汇率和外部调整
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103964
Wenbo Yu
{"title":"Consumption, exchange rate, and external adjustment during a crisis","authors":"Wenbo Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I develop a two-country open economy model featuring asymmetric financial frictions to explain two puzzling observations during the 2008 global financial crisis: (1) real consumption growth declined more in foreign countries than in the US, despite the crisis originating in the US, and (2) the US dollar appreciated against foreign currencies despite a significant deterioration in the US net foreign asset position. Subject to a less stringent financial constraint, the US tends to hold more risky assets relative to foreign countries in tranquil times, thereby exposing itself more to financial risks. As the crisis unfolds, the US incurs greater capital losses and is forced to liquidate its risky asset holdings to deleverage. This deleveraging process triggers a capital retrenchment in the US, thereby smoothing US consumption and prompting a US dollar appreciation. Consequently, this model challenges the “exorbitant duty” hypothesis and provides insights into the “reserve currency paradox”.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103964"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141539805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global knowledge and trade flows: Theory and measurement 全球知识和贸易流动：理论与测量
IF 3.8 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103960
Nelson Lind , Natalia Ramondo
{"title":"Global knowledge and trade flows: Theory and measurement","authors":"Nelson Lind ,&nbsp;Natalia Ramondo","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a model of trade, global innovation, and diffusion, inspired by Eaton and Kortum (1999). The specific structure for innovation and diffusion we propose, which leverages general results developed in our previous work (Lind and Ramondo, 2023a), allows us to measure the flow of ideas across countries and over time. By deriving tractable expressions for productivity and expenditure, we can use easily-available international trade data to estimate both innovation and diffusion rates across countries and over time. We find that, although innovation is correlated with economic growth, there are many high income countries that primarily produce using diffused ideas from foreign sources.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103960"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141480468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico 新兴债券市场的通胀预期和风险溢价：墨西哥的证据
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103961
Remy Beauregard , Jens H.E. Christensen , Eric Fischer , Simon Zhu
{"title":"Inflation expectations and risk premia in emerging bond markets: Evidence from Mexico","authors":"Remy Beauregard ,&nbsp;Jens H.E. Christensen ,&nbsp;Eric Fischer ,&nbsp;Simon Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103961","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103961","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To study inflation expectations and associated risk premia in emerging bond markets, we provide estimates for Mexico based on an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for their liquidity risk. Beyond documenting the existence of large and weakly correlated liquidity premia in nominal and real bond prices, our results indicate that long-term inflation expectations in Mexico are well anchored close to the Bank of Mexico’s inflation target. Furthermore, Mexican inflation risk premia are larger and more volatile than those in Canada and the United States.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103961"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141422806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial crises, bailouts and monetary policy in open economies 开放经济体的金融危机、救助和货币政策
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103962
Yang Jiao
{"title":"Financial crises, bailouts and monetary policy in open economies","authors":"Yang Jiao","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103962","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>I jointly study the optimal bailout policy and monetary policy in open economies that borrow in foreign currency from international lenders. A policy dilemma emerges during financial crises. Policymakers trade off the benefit of more bailouts alleviating firms’ financial constraints against the cost of larger currency devaluation, which tightens firms’ financial constraints. I embed the optimal bailout in an otherwise standard “sudden stop” model with nominal rigidities. The model sheds light on the role of bailouts and currency mismatch in driving the exchange rate dynamics, firms’ balance sheets and economic recovery. Quantitatively, the model matches key business cycle moments. A welfare evaluation shows that there are in general welfare gains from the systemic bailout policy despite ex ante moral hazard problems of firms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103962"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141429407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Worker reallocation, firm innovation, and Chinese import competition 工人再分配、企业创新和中国的进口竞争
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103951
Grace Gu , Samreen Malik , Dario Pozzoli , Vera Rocha
{"title":"Worker reallocation, firm innovation, and Chinese import competition","authors":"Grace Gu ,&nbsp;Samreen Malik ,&nbsp;Dario Pozzoli ,&nbsp;Vera Rocha","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103951","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>While recent work has documented a nexus between international trade and firm innovation, the underlying mechanisms explaining firms’ innovation in response to import competition are, thus far, poorly understood. To identify the mechanism of labor adjustments and its economic relevance, we use longitudinal linked employer–employee data from Denmark (1995–2012). We first show that import competition triggers a significant increase in the share of R&amp;D workers at the firm level. The majority of the increase in the share of R&amp;D workers is explained by between-firm, not within-firm, worker reallocation. The significance of this reallocation becomes evident when we show that innovation improvements are observed only among firms that experience a large increase in the share of R&amp;D workers, especially if this increase is achieved through between-firm worker reallocation. We then extend our analysis to Portugal where the labor market is more rigid and find contrasting yet consistent results: labor reallocation occurs only within firms and it does not result in increased innovation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 103951"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141241812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International joint ventures and internal technology transfer vs. external technology spillovers: Evidence from China 国际合资企业和内部技术转让与外部技术溢出：来自中国的证据
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103939
Kun Jiang , Wolfgang Keller , Larry D. Qiu , William Ridley
{"title":"International joint ventures and internal technology transfer vs. external technology spillovers: Evidence from China","authors":"Kun Jiang ,&nbsp;Wolfgang Keller ,&nbsp;Larry D. Qiu ,&nbsp;William Ridley","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103939","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the economics of international joint ventures using administrative data for China. We first show that foreign investors choose Chinese partners that are relatively large, productive, and more innovative to set up their joint venture. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we then provide evidence that joint ventures lead to domestic benefits in the form of productivity and technological spillovers to both the Chinese partners in joint ventures as well as other domestic Chinese firms. Exploiting the easing of joint venture requirements as China entered the WTO in the year 2001, we further show that intraindustry spillovers from joint ventures to other domestic firms increased in the wake of China’s WTO accession, consistent with gains from foreign technology rising due to enhanced commitment through the rules-based WTO system. Our results shed new light on the efficacy of FDI performance requirements as well as on claims regarding international technology transfer that underpinned the China–US trade war.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103939"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141097744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A theory of capital flow retrenchment 资本流动紧缩理论
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103952
J. Scott Davis , Eric van Wincoop
{"title":"A theory of capital flow retrenchment","authors":"J. Scott Davis ,&nbsp;Eric van Wincoop","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>During a downturn in the global financial cycle there is a simultaneous retrenchment in gross capital flows and a fall in risky asset prices. The global financial cycle is closely related to fluctuations in risk appetite. We develop a model that can simultaneously produce a fall in gross outflows, inflows, and asset prices following an increase in global risk aversion. There is heterogeneity across investors within a country in the willingness to hold risky assets and to hold foreign assets. The fall in the asset price after a rise in global risk aversion shifts the wealth distribution towards investors that are less willing to hold foreign assets. This leads a drop in gross flows. We calibrate the within country heterogeneity in the model to match heterogeneity observed in micro data of household portfolios. The retrenchment in the calibrated model is quantitatively similar to what we observe in the macro data.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103952"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141187931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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