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Specialization, market access and real income 专业化、市场准入和实际收入
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103923
Dominick Bartelme , Ting Lan , Andrei A. Levchenko
{"title":"Specialization, market access and real income","authors":"Dominick Bartelme ,&nbsp;Ting Lan ,&nbsp;Andrei A. Levchenko","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper estimates the impact of external demand shocks on real income. We utilize a first order approximation to a wide class of small open economy models that feature sector-level gravity in trade flows, which allows us to measure foreign shocks and characterize their welfare impact in terms of reduced-form elasticities. We use machine learning techniques to group 4-digit manufacturing sectors into a smaller number of clusters, and show that the cluster-level elasticities of income with respect to foreign shocks can be estimated using high-dimensional statistical techniques. Foreign demand shocks in complex intermediate and capital goods have large positive impacts on real income, whereas impacts in other sectors are negligible. We show that the estimates imply that countries that specialize in these sectors enjoy greater gains from increased openness, and that (small) export subsidies to these sectors are welfare-improving. Finally, a calibrated multi-sector production and trade model with input–output linkages and external economies of scale can match the empirical estimates.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103923"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140347944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On regional borrowing, default, and migration 关于地区借贷、违约和移民
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103916
Grey Gordon , Pablo Guerron-Quintana
{"title":"On regional borrowing, default, and migration","authors":"Grey Gordon ,&nbsp;Pablo Guerron-Quintana","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>How do local government borrowing, default, and migration interact? We find in-migration results in excessive debt accumulation due to a key externality: Immigrants help repay previously-issued debt. In addition to providing direct IV evidence on this mechanism, we show cities are heavily indebted, near state-imposed borrowing limits, vulnerable to interest rate increases, and default even after periods of robust population and productivity growth. Our quantitative model reproduces these features of the data and reveals a bifurcation: in-migration strongly affects borrowing, but borrowing only weakly affects migration. The model predicts large interest rate declines in the Great Recession prevented a wave of municipal defaults.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103916"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140154058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default 有主权违约风险的银行监管
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103917
Pablo D’Erasmo , Igor Livshits , Koen Schoors
{"title":"Banking regulation with risk of sovereign default","authors":"Pablo D’Erasmo ,&nbsp;Igor Livshits ,&nbsp;Koen Schoors","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Banking regulation routinely designates domestic government debt as safe, even when this debt is risky. We show, in a parsimonious model, that this failure to recognize the riskiness of government debt induces domestic banks to “gamble” with depositors’ funds by purchasing risky government bonds and assets correlated with them. Sovereign defaults then result in banking crises; however, by permitting banks to gamble, the regulator lowers the government’s borrowing costs ex-ante. Thus, the government has an incentive to ignore the riskiness of the sovereign bonds. We derive a set of testable implications and present supporting empirical evidence from sovereign debt crises in Russia, Argentina, and the Eurozone.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103917"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140154056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heteroskedastic supply and demand estimation: Analysis and testing 异方差供求估计：分析与测试
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103817
Matthew Grant , Anson Soderbery
{"title":"Heteroskedastic supply and demand estimation: Analysis and testing","authors":"Matthew Grant ,&nbsp;Anson Soderbery","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103817","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103817","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Feenstra (1994) method is widely used in the international trade literature to estimate supply and demand elasticities. The method is mechanically an IV strategy, and we demonstrate that this has important implications for its application and reliability. The assumptions needed for it to yield unbiased estimates are stronger than previously understood, and in practice, estimates are subject to bias due to both weak instruments and violations of the exclusion restriction. We illustrate how these arise in context and show that standard tests identify estimates that are likely to be biased. In an application to U.S. import data, estimates of import demand and export supply elasticities are substantially lower among goods that pass standard tests relative to those that fail. We find evidence that this difference in elasticities reflects reduction of bias as well as some selection in the set of goods that tend to pass both tests.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103817"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140052070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Preemptive austerity with rollover risk 有翻转风险的先发制人的紧缩政策
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103914
Juan Carlos Conesa , Timothy J. Kehoe
{"title":"Preemptive austerity with rollover risk","authors":"Juan Carlos Conesa ,&nbsp;Timothy J. Kehoe","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>By <em>preemptive austerity</em>, we mean a policy that increases taxes to deter potential rollover crises. The policy is so successful that the usual danger signal of a rollover crisis, a high yield on new bonds sold, does not show up, because the policy eliminates the danger. Mechanically, high taxes make the safe zone in the model – the set of sovereign debt levels for which the government prefers to repay its debt rather than default – larger. By announcing a high tax rate at the beginning of the period, the government ensures that tax revenue will be high enough to service sovereign debt becoming due, which deters panics by international lenders but is ex-post suboptimal. That is why, as it engages in preemptive austerity, the government continues to reduce the level of debt to a point where, at least asymptotically, high taxes are no longer necessary.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103914"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140042388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Laffer curve for rules of origin 原产地规则的拉弗曲线
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103911
Keith Head , Thierry Mayer , Marc Melitz
{"title":"The Laffer curve for rules of origin","authors":"Keith Head ,&nbsp;Thierry Mayer ,&nbsp;Marc Melitz","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103911","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Firms in regional trade areas choose whether to comply with rules of origin (RoO) or pay a tariff penalty. Stricter content requirements initially expand regional part sourcing, but contract it when set at levels above a threshold, analogously to the Laffer curve for taxes. We calibrate the model to fit part cost shares for autos sold in North America. The effects of the 75% RoO imposed in 2020 depend on the relevant tariff and the ability to relocate assembly. With fixed assembly locations, the higher RoO reduces employment in all three countries for cars, where tariffs are low. For trucks, the 25% US tariff induces more compliance in Canada and Mexico, increasing employment in those countries. With the option to relocate assembly, higher RoOs redistribute employment to the US, but Canada and Mexico lose more, leading to a half percent decline in North American employment for both cars and trucks.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103911"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140041445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle 揭开商品价格与全球金融周期之舞的面纱
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103913
Luciana Juvenal , Ivan Petrella
{"title":"Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle","authors":"Luciana Juvenal ,&nbsp;Ivan Petrella","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103913","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. monetary policy and global risk appetite drive the global financial cycle in EMDEs. Eased global credit conditions, attributed to looser U.S. monetary policy or lower global risk appetite, lead to a rise in export prices, higher output, a decrease in government borrowing costs, and stimulate greater capital flows. The endogenous response of export prices amplifies the output effects of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy while country spreads magnify the impact of shifts in global risk appetite.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103913"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140042389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sovereign debt and economic growth when government is myopic and self-interested 政府近视和自利时的主权债务与经济增长
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103906
Viral V. Acharya , Raghuram G. Rajan , Jack B. Shim
{"title":"Sovereign debt and economic growth when government is myopic and self-interested","authors":"Viral V. Acharya ,&nbsp;Raghuram G. Rajan ,&nbsp;Jack B. Shim","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine how a sovereign’s ability to borrow abroad affects the country’s growth and steady-state consumption when the government is both myopic and self-interested. Surprisingly, government myopia can increase a country’s access to external borrowing and extend the government’s effective horizon, giving it a stake in incentivizing private production and savings despite its self-interest. In a high-saving country, the lengthening of the government’s effective horizon can incentivize it to tax less, resulting in a “growth boost”, with higher steady-state household consumption than if it could not borrow abroad. However, in a country that saves little, the government may engage in repressive tax policies to channel domestic savings into government bonds. This increases future governments’ costs of default, and in turn enhances current debt capacity and spending, but can lead to a “growth trap” where steady-state household consumption is lower than without government’s access to external borrowing.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103906"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140019347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union 量化德国冲击：货币联盟中的结构性劳动力市场改革和溢出效应
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103905
Harald Fadinger , Philipp Herkenhoff , Jan Schymik
{"title":"Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union","authors":"Harald Fadinger ,&nbsp;Philipp Herkenhoff ,&nbsp;Jan Schymik","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103905","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103905","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the effects of unilateral structural reforms within a currency union. Focusing on the surge of German competitiveness following the introduction of the Euro, we first provide reduced-form causal evidence supporting the notion that German structural labor-market reforms in the early 2000s led to a crowding-out of manufacturing employment in other Eurozone economies. To assess the impact of this German competitiveness shock, we build a quantitative multi-sector trade model that features downward nominal wage rigidities, endogenous labor supply, unemployment-insurance benefits and international savings. The fixed nominal exchange rate can create binding nominal rigidities in response to a foreign real supply shock – like the one prompted by the German reforms – resulting in significant contraction of manufacturing sectors and increased involuntary unemployment across other Eurozone countries. We consider a number of counterfactual scenarios, such as the impact of German labor-market reforms in the absence of a fixed exchange-rate regime, the role of coordinated reforms within the Eurozone and a higher average inflation rate.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103905"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139956612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
International transmission of the U.S. dollar liquidity shock: The channel of FX borrowing and lending 美元流动性冲击的国际传播：外汇借贷渠道
IF 3.3 1区 经济学
Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103907
Youngju Kim , Hyunjoon Lim , Youngjin Yun
{"title":"International transmission of the U.S. dollar liquidity shock: The channel of FX borrowing and lending","authors":"Youngju Kim ,&nbsp;Hyunjoon Lim ,&nbsp;Youngjin Yun","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103907","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103907","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Access to foreign exchange (FX) liquidity is crucial to the growth and stability of emerging market economies. We examine the impact of U.S. dollar liquidity shocks on firm investments in Korea by constructing a dataset that merges four distinct micro-level data spanning ten years from 2006 to 2015. We trace the path of FX liquidity from the international financial market to Korean banks and subsequently to listed firms. During international liquidity shocks, banks borrow less FX but pay higher interest rates. Weak banks, whose FX borrowing rates are sensitive to these shocks, reduce their FX credit supply to firms. Among the FX loan-reliant firms that are highly productive, those borrowing from weak banks reduce their investments. This channel of FX borrowing and lending accounts for 19% of the decline in the investment of listed firms during the peak of the Global Financial Crisis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103907"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2024-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139946204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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