贸易战与和平：2015-2050年中美贸易与关税风险

IF 3.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of International Economics Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104066

George Alessandria , Shafaat Yar Khan , Armen Khederlarian , Kim J. Ruhl , Joseph B. Steinberg

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们将贸易政策建模为马尔可夫过程。使用动态出口模型，我们估计了围绕中美贸易战对美国对中国征收关税的预期是如何变化的。我们发现(1)2018年之前爆发贸易战的可能性没有增加；（二）贸易战最初预计将迅速结束，但预计持续时间在2020年之后大幅增长；（三）贸易战降低了中国未来面临非正常贸易关系关税的可能性。我们的研究结果表明，在拜登总统任期内，美国对中国征收的预期平均未来关税比特朗普总统任期内增加得更多。

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Trade war and peace: U.S.-China trade and tariff risk from 2015–2050

We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.

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来源期刊

Journal of International Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

6.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.