Journal of Agricultural Economics最新文献

Vertical Integration and Coordination in Modernising Staple Food Value Chains: Evidence From Myanmar's Rice Sector 主食价值链现代化中的垂直整合与协调：来自缅甸稻米行业的证据

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70088

Joseph Goeb, Bart Minten, Thomas Reardon, A Myint Zu, May Thet Htar

{"title":"Vertical Integration and Coordination in Modernising Staple Food Value Chains: Evidence From Myanmar's Rice Sector","authors":"Joseph Goeb, Bart Minten, Thomas Reardon, A Myint Zu, May Thet Htar","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70088","url":null,"abstract":"Increased vertical integration and coordination are defining features of transforming and modernising agricultural value chains in low‐ and middle‐income countries, with important implications for market efficiency and farm‐level transformation. However, research documenting these processes in transforming domestic value chains is limited, with existing studies largely focusing on large firms, foreign direct investment and high‐value food products, leaving less understood how domestic processors in staple food value chains expand into complementary businesses and services. We study these processes in the rice value chain—the most important staple in Southeast Asia—in Myanmar, using unique large‐scale data from domestic rice mills and farmers. We show that both modern and traditional mills serve as key nodes in local rice value chains, fulfilling diverse roles beyond processing at both the farm and post‐harvest levels. Yet, statistical tests that control for mill and farmer characteristics, respectively, show that modern mills are more engaged in vertical integration and coordination, particularly in post‐harvest value chain segments, highlighting the co‐development of modern processing and business expansion. Consistent with this pattern in the miller data, farmers using a modern mill are more likely to receive complementary services—especially post‐harvest—and to adopt modern production practices more broadly. However, this expansion is uneven, with services reaching large farms more frequently than small and medium farms.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149199018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reference Points and Affordability Perceptions of Hybrid Maize Seed in Uganda: Evidence on Endowment and Expectations 参考点和可负担性观念在乌干达杂交玉米种子：关于禀赋和期望的证据

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70093

Astrid Mastenbroek, Robert Sparrow, Geoffrey Otim, Christine Kawuma

{"title":"Reference Points and Affordability Perceptions of Hybrid Maize Seed in Uganda: Evidence on Endowment and Expectations","authors":"Astrid Mastenbroek, Robert Sparrow, Geoffrey Otim, Christine Kawuma","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70093","url":null,"abstract":"Despite demonstrated yield advantages, adoption of hybrid maize seed in Sub‐Saharan Africa remains low, raising questions about smallholders' perceptions of value and affordability. We examine whether farmers value hybrid maize seed differently depending on whether they already possess it or form expectations about likely prices or ownership, and how this affects willingness to pay (WTP) for a 1‐kg pack of seed in Uganda. We elicit WTP and willingness to accept (WTA) using Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak auctions and measure ownership expectations with a multiple price list. The experiment tests three mechanisms: an endowment effect, by comparing WTP and WTA; price expectations, by randomly varying price probabilities; and ownership expectations, by varying the probability of keeping the seed for free. We find a strong endowment effect: farmers require substantially more money to give up seed they already possess than they are willing to pay to acquire the same seed, with WTA exceeding WTP by about 60%. The average WTP of UGX 4605 is well below the market price of UGX 8500. Loss aversion is associated with lower WTP and higher WTA, but these effects are small, imprecise, and do not explain the valuation gap. We do not find evidence that price expectations or ownership expectations generate economically meaningful reference points. Overall, our results indicate that current possession of seed is a more salient benchmark for valuation than forward‐looking expectations. These findings suggest that scaling strategies establishing early ownership, such as trial packs or plant‐now/pay‐after‐harvest schemes, may be more effective than attempts to shift price expectations alone.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"471 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149172821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When Trade Policy Shocks Hit the Pit: Pricing, Volatility and Speculation in the 2025 Soybean Futures Market 当贸易政策冲击冲击深渊：2025年大豆期货市场的定价、波动和投机

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70091

Yasin Yildirim, Sandro Steinbach

{"title":"When Trade Policy Shocks Hit the Pit: Pricing, Volatility and Speculation in the 2025 Soybean Futures Market","authors":"Yasin Yildirim, Sandro Steinbach","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70091","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores responses to major trade policy shocks in the soybean futures market in 2025. Using an event‐study framework, we analyse short‐run movements in soybean futures prices, historical volatility, implied volatility and speculative positioning around three major policy shocks: the U.S. tariff announcement targeting China on February 1, the reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2, and Argentina's temporary suspension of soybean export taxes on September 22. Broader in scope, the April reciprocal tariff package was associated with the clearest and strongest response. Futures prices fell by about 6% within two trading days, while implied volatility rose sharply. Following the February announcement, implied volatility increased immediately and then receded, while downward repricing became evident only after China's retaliatory tariffs took effect, suggesting that uncertainty rose before the implications for U.S. export demand became clearer. Argentina's export‐tax suspension, by contrast, was followed by limited repricing, a later decline in implied volatility, and greater speculative positioning relative to commercial hedging needs. The cross‐event comparison suggests that the timing and composition of market adjustment vary with the scope, directness and subsequent evolution of each policy episode.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149130279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Role of Women Within the Agricultural Economics Society: An Historical Perspective 妇女在农业经济社会中的作用：一个历史的视角

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70085

Carmen Hubbard, David R. Stead

引用次数: 0

Introduction to the Anniversary Issue 周年纪念册简介

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70087

Jonathan Brooks

引用次数: 0

Correction to ‘The Announcement Volatility Risk Premium in Agricultural Markets: Evidence From USDA Report Releases’ 修正“农业市场的公告波动风险溢价：来自美国农业部报告发布的证据”

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70090

引用次数: 0

On the Value of Improved Forecasting for Specialty Crop Producers Through Intra‐Season Supply Allocations 基于季内供给分配的改进预测对特种作物生产者的价值

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-24 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70086

Hyunkyung Cho, Youngjune Kim, Jisang Yu

引用次数: 0

Low‐Carbon Transition in China's Agrifood System: Potential, Pathways and Global Implications 中国农业食品系统的低碳转型：潜力、路径和全球启示

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-23 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70081

Yumei Zhang, Jingjing Wang, Ruizeng Zhang, Tiantian Sun, Shenggen Fan

{"title":"Low‐Carbon Transition in China's Agrifood System: Potential, Pathways and Global Implications","authors":"Yumei Zhang, Jingjing Wang, Ruizeng Zhang, Tiantian Sun, Shenggen Fan","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70081","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70081","url":null,"abstract":"Global agrifood systems must undergo a low‐carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China's agrifood emissions will continue to rise, jeopardising its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed‐methods approach combining a narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterise the emissions of China's agrifood system, (2) project carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple domestic policy scenarios, and (3) provide wider implications for developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, annual emissions are projected to rise slowly from a baseline of 1.6 billion tons in 2021 to 1.83 billion tons of CO 2 eq by 2060, driven primarily by the expansion of the livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modelling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvements, the adoption of low‐carbon technologies, food loss and waste reduction, production structure adjustment, and a low‐carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% or 1.1 billion tons CO 2 eq by 2060 relative to the baseline. At the same time, carbon sequestration alone could ensure carbon neutrality, with potential reductions of 1.8 billion tons CO 2 eq annually, thereby contributing to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system‐wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers a valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low‐carbon transitions.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149020027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How Do Savings Groups Respond to Agricultural Shocks? 储蓄团体如何应对农业冲击？

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70083

G. F. van Hemert Daniël, Bert D'Espallier, Roy Mersland

{"title":"How Do Savings Groups Respond to Agricultural Shocks?","authors":"G. F. van Hemert Daniël, Bert D'Espallier, Roy Mersland","doi":"10.1111/1477-9552.70083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70083","url":null,"abstract":"Negative aggregate shocks lead to persistent rural poverty. Access to credit and insurance can help, but is often lacking. How do informal financial institutions, dependent on locally sourced capital, respond to shocks? We study the response of savings groups—locally run financial associations mostly embedded in rural agricultural communities—to aggregate shocks. We explore this by combining group‐level performance data for 9328 savings groups primarily in five sub‐Saharan African countries with local drought data. We use two‐way fixed‐effects and heterogeneity‐robust difference‐in‐differences analyses to assess how these informal financial groups respond to drought shocks. Groups mobilise credit during shocks by increasing the number of loans they provide. The counter‐cyclical credit response is concentrated among groups shocked in the later stages of their savings cycle, where accumulated capital permits additional lending, confirming a capital‐constraint prediction. The social fund, designed for idiosyncratic shocks, is not mobilised during droughts. We discuss implications for integrating informal savings groups into climate‐risk management strategies.","PeriodicalId":14994,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Agricultural Economics","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149019892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Index Insurance and Food Security Among Smallholder Farmers in Southern Mali 马里南部小农的指数保险和粮食安全

IF 3.4 2区经济学

Journal of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-18 DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.70084

Anna Mader, Tim Ölkers, Oliver Mußhoff

引用次数: 0