Energy Economics最新文献

Uncertain time to completion in a sequential investment problem: A theoretical analysis and an empirical application 时序投资问题的不确定完工时间：理论分析与实证应用

IF 12.8 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108693

Micah Lucy Abigaba, Jens Bengtsson, Martijn W. Ketelaars, Peter M. Kort

{"title":"Uncertain time to completion in a sequential investment problem: A theoretical analysis and an empirical application","authors":"Micah Lucy Abigaba, Jens Bengtsson, Martijn W. Ketelaars, Peter M. Kort","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108693","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a real options framework for a sequential oil project in which the oil company has to complete its development stage before it is able to start its production stage. Both the oil price and the duration of the development stage are uncertain. For each stage we determine the associated optimal price threshold that reflects an optimal investment timing. The goal of the article is to study the determination of these two thresholds from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Because the oil price and the time to completion are uncertain, it is imperative to coordinate the thresholds in such a way that upon completion of the development stage it is sufficiently probable that the oil company can immediately start its production stage. Our numerical analysis is based on Uganda’s oil project in the Albertine Graben region. We show that changes in the characteristics of the oil price have a more pronounced effect on the development price threshold because it depends also on the production price threshold. Interestingly, we observe that it could be optimal for the oil company to start its initial development stage later in case of a shorter expected time to completion. This happens when it expects the oil price to grow relatively quickly.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Environmental corporate social responsibility and endogenous R&D networks 环境企业社会责任与内生性研发网络

IF 12.8 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108732

Doo-Ri Kim, Sang-Ho Lee, Vasileios Zikos

引用次数: 0

Contingency in nuclear power plant decommissioning cost estimation 核电厂退役成本估算中的突发事件

IF 12.8 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108721

Geoffrey Rothwell

{"title":"Contingency in nuclear power plant decommissioning cost estimation","authors":"Geoffrey Rothwell","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108721","url":null,"abstract":"Hundreds of estimates have been made of decommissioning costs for commercial nuclear power plants. There is no standard method for making these estimates, particularly for estimating contingency, a type of risk premium, to cover unexpected costs during project execution. Following cost engineering guidelines for estimating contingency requires, among other project characteristics, consideration of (1) the cost estimate's probability distribution, (2) the cost estimate's variance, (3) the estimator's assumed accuracy range that will contain the final cost, (4) the estimator's level of confidence that the final cost will be in the stated accuracy range, and (5) the cost estimate user's risk aversion. The variance (or standard deviation) can be calculated using Monte Carlo techniques, which generally assume no correlation between individual activity costs. Because of portfolio effects, the simulated standard deviation of the aggregated activity cost is smaller than what would be suggested by nuclear decommissioning cost estimating guidelines. The simulated standard deviation is more reasonable when correlations are assumed to be non-zero between activities. This conclusion is shown by applying the proposed method for estimating contingency to activity costs estimated by the decommissioning operations contractor Energy<ce:italic>Solutions</ce:italic> to decommission the Kewaunee nuclear power plant in Wisconsin, while it is decommissioning four other US nuclear power units after it completed the decontamination and demolition of four other units, including Zion 1&2. Energy<ce:italic>Solutions</ce:italic> could be approaching Nth-of-a-Kind decommissioning costs for US nuclear power plants.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Marginal pricing and the energy crisis: Where should we go? 边际定价与能源危机：我们该何去何从？

IF 12.8 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108716

Ibrahim Abada, Andreas Ehrenmann, Yves Smeers

{"title":"Marginal pricing and the energy crisis: Where should we go?","authors":"Ibrahim Abada, Andreas Ehrenmann, Yves Smeers","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108716","url":null,"abstract":"The fundamental principle of marginal pricing in electricity markets has been challenged following the recent European energy crisis. A main criticism targets the incapacity of current markets to drive investments, as spot prices provide only short-term information about supply, demand, and costs. This paper revisits the seminal work of Boiteux (1960) in the context of the recent energy crisis to discuss the fundamental assumption of <ce:italic>adapted capacity</ce:italic>, which underpins the equality between long-term and short-term marginal costs in the theory of marginal pricing. We argue that capacity is no longer adapted to current economic conditions in Europe. We then leverage mathematical programming techniques to generalize the results of Boiteux (1960) and propose a market-clearing mechanism that preserves the efficiency of current short-term marginal pricing to drive optimal plant operations while also providing a long-term investment signal when capacities are not necessarily adapted to current economic conditions. Through an analysis of captured margins, our proposal, which differs only marginally from the current market-clearing mechanism, identifies plants that should remain in the current mix and those that are no longer economical. We also discuss possible extensions of our proposal to accommodate capacity markets and price caps. Finally, we implement our models with the French power mix and demonstrate their advantages over the current market-clearing mechanism using a realistic case study.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"665 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Distribution of climate damages in convergence-consistent growth projections 趋同一致增长预测中气候损害的分布

IF 12.8 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108705

Anthony Harding, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Martin Quaas, Wilfried Rickels, Sjak Smulders

{"title":"Distribution of climate damages in convergence-consistent growth projections","authors":"Anthony Harding, Juan Moreno-Cruz, Martin Quaas, Wilfried Rickels, Sjak Smulders","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108705","url":null,"abstract":"Climate-econometric estimates assuming that climate changes affect economic growth result in larger projected damages than estimates restricting the effect to economic income levels. We show that the latter is consistent with neoclassical macroeconomic theory by explicitly accounting for income growth convergence in our empirical investigation. We show that accounting for convergence does not statistically change the point estimates capturing climate’s macroeconomic effect, but it has significant implications for assessing the long-term economic consequences of climate change. The magnitude and spread of long-term losses from climate change are reduced. Aggregated damages are found to be convex in the extent of climate change and are projected to continuously increase over time with on-going climate change, in contrast to growth-effects-only estimates where the gains experienced by the winners of climate change eventually surpass the losses incurred by the losers. For example, projections of climate change damages based on climate-econometric estimates by Burke et al., 2015 find that global warming could reduce average global incomes by 20% and drastically increase intercountry income inequality, reflected by a 118% increase in the Gini coefficient in 2100 under RCP8.5. We reestimate and project climate damages under the same scenario accounting for convergence and find global climate damages around 8.5% of global incomes and an increase in intercountry income inequality by 8% in 2100.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A sentiment-based approach to predict energy price volatility using distilRoBERTa and GARCH models 基于情绪的方法预测能源价格波动使用蒸馏roberta和GARCH模型

IF 12.8 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108646

Bich Ngoc Nguyen

{"title":"A sentiment-based approach to predict energy price volatility using distilRoBERTa and GARCH models","authors":"Bich Ngoc Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108646","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108646","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies have extensively examined the impact of information on short-term energy price fluctuations, using various forms to extract sentiment, such as search volume and news headlines. However, the influence of social media data on energy prices has received little attention. Therefore, we extend the existing literature by using tweets to analyze the impact of social media on the change in energy prices. Furthermore, we propose a new approach to classify text data using the distilRoBERTa fill-mask task, which provides direct predictions of classification keywords, rather than manually categorizing them as the traditional classification task does. The sentiment volatility then shows a significant impact on the volatility of the crude oil and natural gas prices, although an asymmetric effect is only observed for WTI crude oil. Our findings also indicate that the exponential GARCH model offers the best fit for energy price returns and sentiment volatility. In general, incorporating sentiment volatility enhances the performance of modeling the short-term volatility of crude oil and natural gas prices and suggests that social media seem to impact the uncertainty level and the expectation of customers and investors regarding energy prices.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144664733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does artificial intelligence affect energy efficiency? Evidence from supply chain digitization pilot program 人工智能如何影响能源效率？来自供应链数字化试点项目的证据

IF 13.6 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108728

Jiaojiao Fan , Weiqian Li , Lin Chen

{"title":"How does artificial intelligence affect energy efficiency? Evidence from supply chain digitization pilot program","authors":"Jiaojiao Fan , Weiqian Li , Lin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108728","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108728","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With rising global energy demand and increasing environmental awareness, energy transformation has become a core element in achieving sustainable development. Supply chain digitalization, a key area of artificial intelligence application, has become an important topic for its impact on energy efficiency. This paper examines the impact of supply chain digitization on energy efficiency using microdata from Chinese listed companies. The benchmark results show that supply chain digitalization significantly improves energy efficiency. Moreover, green total factor productivity and supply chain efficiency have a significant positive moderating effect on the relationship between supply chain digitization and energy efficiency. Finally, the heterogeneity regression results show that supply chain digitization has a significantly higher impact on energy efficiency in capital-intensive firms, non-green firms, highly polluting firms, and private firms. In conclusion, this study provides the first empirical evidence on the relationship between supply chain digitization and energy efficiency, which is important for China's energy transition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 108728"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Peer ESG controversies and enterprise earnings management 同行ESG争议与企业盈余管理

IF 13.6 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108736

Lu Li, Dailing Li, Qingmiao Yu, Xuena Liu

{"title":"Peer ESG controversies and enterprise earnings management","authors":"Lu Li, Dailing Li, Qingmiao Yu, Xuena Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108736","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108736","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-quality development necessitates a reliable supply of accounting information. The earnings management serving as a pivotal factor influencing the quality of corporate accounting information. From the perspective of earnings management, this study empirically examines the impact of peer ESG controversies on the corporate accounting information quality, utilizing data from A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, China, spanning from 2018 to 2022. The study reveals that peer ESG controversies can significantly constrain enterprise earnings management, and this research conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that “market competition motivation” and “information advantage motivation” are the two primary channels through which the effect is exerted. Furthermore, this paper examines two moderating effects from dual perspectives. The external monitoring environment perspective reveals a positive moderating effect of public environmental claims on the relationship. The internal organizational environment perspective shows a negative moderating effect of internal control quality on the relationship. And public environmental claims and internal quality control collectively exhibit a compounding effect on the relationship. Moreover, this paper further uncovers that while peer ESG controversies curb the enterprise accrual-based earnings management, they do not prompt a shift towards more concealed real earnings management. In other words, there is no substitution effect between accrual-based earnings management and real earnings management. This paper enriches the research literature on ESG risks and earnings management. It provides empirical evidence for refining ESG information disclosure regulations. Additionally, it offers decision-making insights to address opportunistic behavior among listed companies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 108736"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mixed-frequency Quantile Regression Forests for Value-at-Risk forecasting 风险价值预测的混合频率分位数回归森林

IF 13.6 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108706

Vincenzo Candila , Lea Petrella , Mila Andreani

{"title":"Mixed-frequency Quantile Regression Forests for Value-at-Risk forecasting","authors":"Vincenzo Candila , Lea Petrella , Mila Andreani","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108706","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108706","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we introduce Mixed-Frequency Quantile Regression Forests, a novel approach for non-parametrically computing conditional quantiles with mixed-frequency data to forecast the Value-at-Risk (VaR). By integrating the Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach into Quantile Regression Forests (QRF), the proposed MIDAS-QRF specification incorporates information from both high and low frequencies, which would otherwise be unusable for VaR estimation in the context of random forests. Furthermore, leveraging the QRF approach allows us to capture non-linear relationships while accommodating skewed and fat-tailed distributions. We also propose a dynamic extension, MIDAS-DQRF, which introduces lagged VaR predictions as additional covariates. We extensively apply the MIDAS-QRF and MIDAS-DQRF specifications to forecast the VaR of energy futures, specifically WTI, Brent, and Heating Oil indices. By evaluating the proposed models through backtesting procedures, we provide empirical evidence of the validity of MIDAS-QRF and MIDAS-DQRF. Our findings indicate that these models generate statistically sound forecasts and generally outperform popular alternatives in terms of VaR forecast accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 108706"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Determination of energy efficiency based on machine learning and efficiency assessment methods 基于机器学习和效率评估方法的能源效率确定

IF 13.6 2区经济学

Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108723

Yuchen Jiang , Jiasen Sun , Jie Wu

{"title":"Determination of energy efficiency based on machine learning and efficiency assessment methods","authors":"Yuchen Jiang , Jiasen Sun , Jie Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effectively measuring energy efficiency (EE) and gaining a comprehensive understanding of its status are essential toward enhancing overall EE. Traditional EE evaluation methods typically rely on relative and linear efficiency frontiers, which are inadequate for handling the scenarios of extremes, outliers, and the incorporation of new decision-making units (DMUs), often resulting in unreliable results. Aiming to address this issue, this study applies machine learning algorithms to optimize conventional efficiency evaluation methods by constructing an absolute and smooth efficiency frontier. This enhanced method is then used to perform precise EE measurements across 30 provinces in China. The empirical analysis yields several key insights. First, a notable difference exists between the EE values calculated by the proposed model and those calculated by traditional models, with the proposed model offering higher efficiency values that more accurately reflect the developmental characteristics of DMUs. Second, EE across China and its regions exhibited an upward trend from 2000 to 2023. Third, output-based analysis reveals that the northeastern region exhibits the greatest deviation from the ideal level in terms of undesirable output, while the western region shows the greatest discrepancy in terms of desirable output. Based on the empirical analysis, target policy recommendations are proposed to further improve EE in China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 108723"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0