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Investment, Tobin’s q, and the stochastic price of fossil fuel 投资、托宾公式(省略)和化石燃料的随机价格
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108553
Juan Peng , Jinqiang Yang , Pengxiang Zhao
{"title":"Investment, Tobin’s q, and the stochastic price of fossil fuel","authors":"Juan Peng ,&nbsp;Jinqiang Yang ,&nbsp;Pengxiang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fossil fuel power companies’ production exposes them to carbon risk. Despite extensive empirical research on carbon risk impacts, theoretical frameworks embedding stochastic fossil fuel price dynamics into corporate investment decisions remain scarce. We address this gap by examining the impact of stochastic fossil fuel prices on corporate investment and firm value within a neoclassical <span><math><mi>q</mi></math></span>-theoretic framework. We show that stochastic fossil fuel prices have important implications for investment and Tobin’s <span><math><mi>q</mi></math></span>. Quantitatively, fluctuations in fossil fuel prices once drove the average <span><math><mi>q</mi></math></span> value down below unity, and a firm that ignores price volatility may misallocate investments, leading to a potential reduction in firm value by more than 42%. Value erosion exhibits disproportionate intensity decay, with a halved investment–capital ratio associated with an already 32% depletion. Qualitatively, fossil fuel price volatility persistently depresses Tobin’s <span><math><mi>q</mi></math></span>, inducing strategic disinvestment as firms postpone capital expenditures to mitigate uncertainty. We use duration to quantify the sensitivity of firm value to price volatility, decomposing assets-in-place and growth opportunities. Finally, we generalize the model to incorporate asymmetric adjustment costs and irreversibility. We find that inaction is optimal response which are pertinent to empirical analysis, especially when firms face high capital adjustment costs. Our model suggests that firms should integrate fossil fuel price volatility into strategy to mitigate risks associated with carbon regulation and market fluctuations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108553"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144335545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does the European low-carbon policy impact price uncertainty in fossil energy markets? 欧洲低碳政策是否会影响化石能源市场价格的不确定性?
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108644
Jacques Minlend
{"title":"Does the European low-carbon policy impact price uncertainty in fossil energy markets?","authors":"Jacques Minlend","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper aims to assess the potential effects of a low-carbon policy on price uncertainty in fossil energy markets. For this purpose, we propose text-as-data methods that rely on unsupervised machine-learning algorithms applied to European Union (EU) laws and newspapers. These methods are used to construct two monthly indices over the reference period 1997-2021: (i) a news-based index that reflects uncertainty about the regulatory framework of low-carbon policy as relayed in the press, and (ii) a law-based index that reflects structural changes in European low-carbon policy. Given the support for the carbon phase-out policy, we further examine the extent to which each index relates to price uncertainty dynamics in fossil energy markets. As a result, we find that an increase in the news-based index leads to a positive short-run effect on price uncertainty. Similarly, we observe both dampening short-run and persistent effects of the law-based index on price uncertainty. Thus, stabilizing price uncertainty dynamics through regulations serves as a measure of the efficacy and resilience of European low-carbon policy. This result is robust to the consideration of macroeconomic factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108644"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144335548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme climate attention and corporate energy innovation: Empirical evidence from China
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108681
Hua Wang , Xinyu Tan , Mengzhe Li
{"title":"Extreme climate attention and corporate energy innovation: Empirical evidence from China","authors":"Hua Wang ,&nbsp;Xinyu Tan ,&nbsp;Mengzhe Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines Chinese A-share companies between 2007 and 2023 to find out how extreme climate attention affects their energy innovation. Extreme climate attention notably promotes corporate energy innovation. Mechanism analysis reveals that extreme climate attention primarily enhances corporate energy innovation by increasing R&amp;D investment, promoting digital transformation, and reducing agency costs. We conduct a deeper analysis and determine that the observed impact is more pronounced for businesses facing heightened regional environmental regulatory pressures, greater uncertainty of climate policy and fierce industry competition. A good governance environment and financial position make extreme climate attention even more conducive to corporate energy innovation. In addition, extreme climate attention has only been a significant contributor to alternative energy innovations. Finally, the energy innovations promoted by extreme climate attention have improved enterprises' energy efficiency. This paper provides empirical evidence and enlightenment to help enterprises handle climate change and promote low-carbon energy transformation and sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108681"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144472239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A seasonal two-factor model for solar energy production: A climate extreme events analysis 太阳能生产的季节性双因子模型:气候极端事件分析
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108611
Michele Bufalo , Viviana Fanelli
{"title":"A seasonal two-factor model for solar energy production: A climate extreme events analysis","authors":"Michele Bufalo ,&nbsp;Viviana Fanelli","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we propose a novel stochastic model for forecasting solar energy production, incorporating key climate-related uncertainties. Unlike existing approaches, which primarily rely on Gaussian or skew-normal processes, our model employs a skew-geometric Brownian motion with a time-dependent seasonal drift and an error term following a mixture distribution. Additionally, we integrate temperature variations, modeled as a non-homogeneous mean-reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, to account for their dynamic impact on photovoltaic efficiency. A distinctive feature of our model is the inclusion of a jump component of compound Poisson type, which explicitly captures the influence of extreme climatic events on solar energy output. By applying our methodology to data from 28 countries, we demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms two benchmark approaches in accurately predicting energy production under extreme conditions. This contribution provides a more comprehensive and realistic representation of solar power variability, improving risk assessment and decision-making in energy planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108611"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimizing portfolios under carbon risk constraints: Setting effective constraints to favor green investments 碳风险约束下的投资组合优化:设置有利于绿色投资的有效约束
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108634
An Chen , Leonard Gerick , Zhuo Jin
{"title":"Optimizing portfolios under carbon risk constraints: Setting effective constraints to favor green investments","authors":"An Chen ,&nbsp;Leonard Gerick ,&nbsp;Zhuo Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change and its concomitant adaptations pose significant challenges for companies and confront them with new risks. Investors must consider these risks when shaping their investment portfolio. This study investigates portfolio optimization under a carbon risk constraint in an expected utility framework. To illustrate the implications of the carbon risk constraint, we consider a financial market with only one risk-free and two risky assets, one green and one brown. We identify conditions under which the imposition of the carbon risk constraint leads to an increase in the green investment and a decrease in the brown investment. Surprisingly, an increased investment in the brown asset can also be optimal under certain conditions. Further, we employ different carbon risk metrics, such as carbon intensity and Brown-Green-Score, to compare the resulting optimal portfolios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108634"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144290138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Environmental impacts and energy transition in Chinese logistics: An N-Spheres multi-criteria decision-making 中国物流环境影响与能源转型:N-Spheres多准则决策
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108668
Yong Tan , Zhongfei Chen , Jorge Antunes , Peter Wanke
{"title":"Environmental impacts and energy transition in Chinese logistics: An N-Spheres multi-criteria decision-making","authors":"Yong Tan ,&nbsp;Zhongfei Chen ,&nbsp;Jorge Antunes ,&nbsp;Peter Wanke","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108668","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents the N-Spheres geometrical concept as a novel Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model to evaluate environmental impacts and energy transitions in logistics transportation across Chinese provinces. By incorporating data such as truck quantities, logistics network mileage, fixed asset investments, and energy consumption, the study creates an n-dimensional framework to assess logistics systems' energy efficiency and CO2 emissions. The adapted N-Spheres model, originally from theoretical mathematics and computer science, is applied to analyze trade-offs, criterion elasticity, and contributions to overall performance, linking economic activities to environmental impacts. The findings reveal significant regional disparities in Environmental, Energy, and Transport Logistics (EETL) performance, with coastal regions typically outperforming inland areas. Higher freight transport volumes and logistics network mileage enhance performance, while CO2 emissions and energy consumption highlight the need for improved environmental management. Overall, the results indicate a trend towards better logistics performance over time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108668"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144298009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Navigating climate policy: Corporate lobbying strategies in response to intensified climate risk exposure 引导气候政策:应对气候风险加剧的企业游说策略
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108667
Anqi Jiao , Ran Sun , Honglin Ren
{"title":"Navigating climate policy: Corporate lobbying strategies in response to intensified climate risk exposure","authors":"Anqi Jiao ,&nbsp;Ran Sun ,&nbsp;Honglin Ren","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108667","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108667","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how firms strategically respond to heightened climate risk exposure, with a particular focus on corporate climate lobbying behavior. Our findings reveal a robust positive relation between firm-level climate risk exposure and corporate lobbying efforts on climate-related issues. Among the three climate risk components—regulatory, physical, and opportunity risks—the regulatory risk is the primary driver of the results. Causal relation is established using the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 as a shock to firm climate risk exposure. Finally, we show that corporate climate lobbying reduces regulatory fragmentation and increases firms' greenhouse gas emissions. These results together suggest that firms strategically allocate political resources toward climate-related issues in response to climate risks, aiming to manage their exposures to climate risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108667"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144279271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Health impacts of cross-regional transmission infrastructure: Evidence from China's ultra-high voltage projects 跨区域输电基础设施对健康的影响:来自中国特高压项目的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108669
Zhengye Gao , Li Zhao
{"title":"Health impacts of cross-regional transmission infrastructure: Evidence from China's ultra-high voltage projects","authors":"Zhengye Gao ,&nbsp;Li Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fossil fuel consumption poses a significant threat to public health. This paper provides the first empirical evidence of the health benefits associated with the world's largest cross-regional power grid project, namely, China's ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission system. The primary objective of this project is to transmit clean electricity from energy-rich regions to densely populated areas located thousands of kilometers away. Utilizing detailed household health data and the natural experimental setting created by the operation of UHV lines, we implement a difference-in-differences design. Our findings reveal that the operation of UHV lines significantly improves public health in the connected regions. Mechanism analysis indicates that the UHV grid promotes public health primarily by reducing air pollution and lowering energy costs. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the UHV grid's health benefits are more pronounced in regions with high electricity consumption intensity and a greater reliance on fossil fuels. Our study provides a novel solution for addressing air pollution and public health issues by investing in cross-regional transmission infrastructure to optimize power allocation across regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108669"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144472238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The complexity of transitioning from oil dependency: A dynamic modelling case study of Indonesia 从石油依赖过渡的复杂性:印度尼西亚的动态建模案例研究
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108662
Arief Rahman , Russell Richards , Paul Dargusch , David Wadley
{"title":"The complexity of transitioning from oil dependency: A dynamic modelling case study of Indonesia","authors":"Arief Rahman ,&nbsp;Russell Richards ,&nbsp;Paul Dargusch ,&nbsp;David Wadley","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108662","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108662","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The decarbonization of the oil sector in Indonesia poses a complex challenge due to the significant role which fossil fuels play in the nation's economy. A major pre-requisite is to adjust demand-side practices. In modelling the dynamic pathways of the oil industry, this article employs a comprehensive systems framework. Specifically, a stock and flow model (SFM) is developed to assess the current state of oil demand and supply, and to forecast its transition to 2050. Given the limited availability of historical data, the study incorporates a grounded theory approach to expose the long-term dynamics of the substitution process. It encompasses S-shaped forecasts of transition, Bass diffusion, and zero-sum game theories. The credibility of the SFM is rigorously evaluated through legitimacy, calibration, structural behavioural and sensitivity tests. Our analysis acknowledges the long-standing oil subsidies offered by the Indonesian government. Biofuels are likely to be part of the future energy mix, but a significant uptake of electricity would be the ultimate focus of a substitution for oil. Innovation-driven acceptance and the effectiveness of policy incentives are two key variables likely to drive change. The achievable decarbonization in the oil sector is contingent upon the magnitude of emissions reductions possible in electricity production, necessitating a shift towards variable renewable energy and nuclear sources to ensure a sustainable change. However, carbon capture and storage could be useful to achieve deeper decarbonization, since renewable and nuclear energy alone are unlikely fully to replace the share of coal and gas in the electricity mix.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108662"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144279273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating consumer preference and willingness to pay for low emission electricity: Evidence from a national choice experiment in the US 评估消费者对低排放电力的偏好和支付意愿:来自美国国家选择实验的证据
IF 13.6 2区 经济学
Energy Economics Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108650
Bruktawit M. Ahmed , Mahelet G. Fikru
{"title":"Evaluating consumer preference and willingness to pay for low emission electricity: Evidence from a national choice experiment in the US","authors":"Bruktawit M. Ahmed ,&nbsp;Mahelet G. Fikru","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines consumer preferences for renewable energy and carbon capture technologies through a choice experiment involving 1200 nationally representative respondents in the US. The analysis estimates willingness to pay (WTP) for increases in renewable energy content, carbon capture, and strategies for managing captured carbon, such as geological storage or industrial utilization. Results reveal a strong preference for low-emission electricity products, with WTP estimates ranging from $2.9 to $4.1 per month for a 10 % increase in renewable content and $0.50 to $2.3 for a 10 % increase in carbon capture. Respondents most preferred carbon capture and utilization for managing emissions, with a WTP ranging from $2 to close to $7 per month. Tax credits positively influenced preferences, while higher electricity bill increases led to aversion. These findings provide insights for policymakers crafting decarbonization strategies that balance clean energy adoption, carbon management, and affordability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108650"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144262498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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