{"title":"超越碳强度的转型风险","authors":"Tatiana Evdokimova, Laurent Millischer","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108913","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As carbon prices rise and their coverage expands across sectors and borders, understanding their financial impact on firms becomes increasingly important for policymakers and investors alike. This paper quantifies how changes in carbon prices affect stock valuations, using a panel dataset of 180 major European firms over 2009–2023. The empirical strategy isolates the stock price response to weekly carbon price fluctuations and exogenous shocks, guided by a theory-based framework. The analysis incorporates firm-level data on direct and indirect carbon cost exposure, free allowance allocation, decarbonization plans, pass-through capacity, and hedging portfolios. The findings show that stock markets price carbon risk in line with economic fundamentals: firms with high net carbon costs and weak abatement plans face stronger valuation losses, while those with mitigation strategies or cost pass-through capacity are less affected. The effects are statistically and economically significant, particularly among the most exposed firms. These results underscore the need for granular transition risk metrics that go beyond headline emissions figures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"151 ","pages":"Article 108913"},"PeriodicalIF":14.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Transition risk beyond carbon intensity\",\"authors\":\"Tatiana Evdokimova, Laurent Millischer\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108913\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>As carbon prices rise and their coverage expands across sectors and borders, understanding their financial impact on firms becomes increasingly important for policymakers and investors alike. This paper quantifies how changes in carbon prices affect stock valuations, using a panel dataset of 180 major European firms over 2009–2023. The empirical strategy isolates the stock price response to weekly carbon price fluctuations and exogenous shocks, guided by a theory-based framework. The analysis incorporates firm-level data on direct and indirect carbon cost exposure, free allowance allocation, decarbonization plans, pass-through capacity, and hedging portfolios. The findings show that stock markets price carbon risk in line with economic fundamentals: firms with high net carbon costs and weak abatement plans face stronger valuation losses, while those with mitigation strategies or cost pass-through capacity are less affected. The effects are statistically and economically significant, particularly among the most exposed firms. These results underscore the need for granular transition risk metrics that go beyond headline emissions figures.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11665,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy Economics\",\"volume\":\"151 \",\"pages\":\"Article 108913\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":14.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325007406\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325007406","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
As carbon prices rise and their coverage expands across sectors and borders, understanding their financial impact on firms becomes increasingly important for policymakers and investors alike. This paper quantifies how changes in carbon prices affect stock valuations, using a panel dataset of 180 major European firms over 2009–2023. The empirical strategy isolates the stock price response to weekly carbon price fluctuations and exogenous shocks, guided by a theory-based framework. The analysis incorporates firm-level data on direct and indirect carbon cost exposure, free allowance allocation, decarbonization plans, pass-through capacity, and hedging portfolios. The findings show that stock markets price carbon risk in line with economic fundamentals: firms with high net carbon costs and weak abatement plans face stronger valuation losses, while those with mitigation strategies or cost pass-through capacity are less affected. The effects are statistically and economically significant, particularly among the most exposed firms. These results underscore the need for granular transition risk metrics that go beyond headline emissions figures.
期刊介绍:
Energy Economics is a field journal that focuses on energy economics and energy finance. It covers various themes including the exploitation, conversion, and use of energy, markets for energy commodities and derivatives, regulation and taxation, forecasting, environment and climate, international trade, development, and monetary policy. The journal welcomes contributions that utilize diverse methods such as experiments, surveys, econometrics, decomposition, simulation models, equilibrium models, optimization models, and analytical models. It publishes a combination of papers employing different methods to explore a wide range of topics. The journal's replication policy encourages the submission of replication studies, wherein researchers reproduce and extend the key results of original studies while explaining any differences. Energy Economics is indexed and abstracted in several databases including Environmental Abstracts, Fuel and Energy Abstracts, Social Sciences Citation Index, GEOBASE, Social & Behavioral Sciences, Journal of Economic Literature, INSPEC, and more.