Energy Policy最新文献

Impact evaluation of the social electricity tariff program in Brazil: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design 巴西社会电价计划的影响评估：来自回归不连续设计的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115143

Beatriz Morgado Marcoje , Laura Schiavon , Michelle Hallack , Danielle Carusi Machado , Mariana Weiss de Abreu

{"title":"Impact evaluation of the social electricity tariff program in Brazil: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design","authors":"Beatriz Morgado Marcoje , Laura Schiavon , Michelle Hallack , Danielle Carusi Machado , Mariana Weiss de Abreu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates Brazil's Social Electricity Tariff Program and its ability to improve electricity affordability for low-income households using a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Using data from the 2017–2018 Family Budget Survey (IBGE, 2018), we compare households just below and just above the income eligibility cutoff to estimate the causal effect of eligibility on electricity consumption and expenditures. We find that eligible households consume on average 20 kWh less electricity per month than households just above the cutoff, consistent with under-consumption near the threshold. Eligibility also reduces monthly electricity spending by R$15.35 on average. While statistically significant, this level of relief appears too small to meaningfully ease budget constraints, potentially encouraging households to restrict electricity use to remain within more subsidized consumption brackets. The results suggest that the current benefit schedule may be insufficient to ensure adequate access to modern energy services—such as thermal comfort and information and entertainment—while maintaining payment affordability. We discuss policy adjustments to better align subsidy levels and target heterogeneous household needs, and highlight the importance of accounting for regional and seasonal variation in electricity demand.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115143"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pathways to an equitable low-carbon future: The nexus of climate policy, emerging technologies, and just transitions 通往公平的低碳未来之路：气候政策、新兴技术和公正转型的关系

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115202

Jie Liu, Alexander Opoku, Seth Acquah Boateng, Frank Agyemang Karikari

{"title":"Pathways to an equitable low-carbon future: The nexus of climate policy, emerging technologies, and just transitions","authors":"Jie Liu, Alexander Opoku, Seth Acquah Boateng, Frank Agyemang Karikari","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>At the cost of social equity, advanced economies often make biased climate polices that target mostly emission reduction, which cause uneven benefits and inequality. This paper bridges this gap by investigating the impact of climate policy and technological innovation on the transition into a low-carbon economy in the G7 countries. The study uses Driscoll-Kraay error and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests to examine the effect of renewable energy output (REO), Energy Intensity (ENU), Internet Usage (INT), and research and development (RND) on Just Transition Index (JTI), which measures income inequality, energy poverty, and air pollution. The results reveal that REO enhances just transition performance, suggesting that climate policies through renewable energy expansion foster decarbonization and social inclusion. ENU also shows a positive effect; this suggests that improved energy access enhances living standards. INT has the largest impact, confirming the role emerging in reducing inequity. The study concludes that equitable low-carbon transition in advanced economies requires integrated strategies aligning climate policies, emerging technologies, and energy access policies to ensure that efforts towards sustainability create fairness rather than increase inequalities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115202"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386830","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition 土地短缺的可持续性三难困境：量化台湾能源转型的社会成本

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223

Xiaohu Zhao , Yulei Xie , Zhihui Tian , Qiao Hu , Mengjie Hou , Mingyang Deng , Shaorui Dong , Yuanrui Liu

{"title":"The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition","authors":"Xiaohu Zhao , Yulei Xie , Zhihui Tian , Qiao Hu , Mengjie Hou , Mingyang Deng , Shaorui Dong , Yuanrui Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving sustainable development goals requires transitioning to renewable energy, but this creates intense competition for land, a critical and finite resource. The effectiveness of climate policies under such constraints remains poorly quantified. Using Taiwan as a case study for a land-constrained economy, we developed a power sector optimization model to analyze this conflict. We find that realistic land-use constraints are sufficient to cause the failure of market-based climate policies, stalling the energy transition even under high carbon prices. Consequently, direct policy mandates to achieve a 36% renewable target, while effective, incur substantial societal costs, increasing system-wide expenses by up to 112%. The model reveals that the least-cost pathway deepens the reliance on imported natural gas for system adequacy, posing a challenge to long-term supply resilience. Our findings reveal the profound economic trade-offs inherent in sustainable development and underscore the necessity of integrating energy policy with national land-use planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115223"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing 基于场景的美国电动汽车采用分析：技术、基础设施和电价

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218

Manlin Gong , Ruixiao Sun , Yuche Chen

{"title":"Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing","authors":"Manlin Gong , Ruixiao Sun , Yuche Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115218"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to: Regional inequality of the European ETS-2 [Energy policy 208 (2026) 114891] 欧洲ETS-2的区域不平等[能源政策208(2026)114891]的更正

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115023

Sigit Perdana , Marc Vielle

引用次数: 0

Reshaping global energy security: Implications of embodied energy transfers in global supply chains 重塑全球能源安全：全球供应链中隐含能源转移的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115186

Yannan Zhou , Ying Lu , Yu Yang , Yan Cheng , Ze He , Yuxin Wang , Yuli Shan

{"title":"Reshaping global energy security: Implications of embodied energy transfers in global supply chains","authors":"Yannan Zhou , Ying Lu , Yu Yang , Yan Cheng , Ze He , Yuxin Wang , Yuli Shan","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115186","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115186","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In an increasingly globalized world, energy security is no longer solely determined by direct energy imports but also by complex, cross-border flows of embodied energy embedded within traded goods and services. This study investigates how these embodied energy transfers reshape national energy dependencies and risk exposures within global production networks. Using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model based on GTAP 11 and IEA data, this study develops indicators of embodied energy import dependency and diversification, and introduces an innovative energy-risk mask method to identify the spatial sourcing tiers of energy risks embedded in international trade. Our findings show that while global embodied energy dependency has declined slightly since 2000, highly globalized economies such as Singapore and Luxembourg remain extremely reliant on external energy inputs. In addition, countries including Norway and China exhibit structurally concentrated embodied energy import sources, increasing their exposure to potential supply chain disruptions. Moreover, over 50% of global medium- and high-risk embodied energy is transmitted through long-distance trade, with large emerging economies like China and India heavily reliant on energy embedded in imports from geopolitically unstable regions. These risks are often obscured by conventional energy security metrics, which fail to capture the hidden dependencies of complex global supply chains. This study calls for the integration of embodied energy flow considerations into national energy strategies, emphasizing the need for diversified sourcing, upstream risk monitoring, and trade-energy policy coordination to enhance resilience in a geopolitically interconnected world.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115186"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating energy poverty under policy uncertainty: The interaction of geopolitical risk and energy transition 政策不确定性下的能源贫困：地缘政治风险与能源转型的相互作用

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115185

Farid Ullah , Qianjin Lu , Chen Jie , Kainat Iftikhar , Degong Ma

{"title":"Navigating energy poverty under policy uncertainty: The interaction of geopolitical risk and energy transition","authors":"Farid Ullah , Qianjin Lu , Chen Jie , Kainat Iftikhar , Degong Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115185","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115185","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to affordable and reliable energy continues to be a significant global challenge; nevertheless, the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions on energy poverty has received inadequate consideration. This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on energy poverty at the national level, exploring the mitigating role of geopolitical risk and the mediating influence of energy transition. This study employs a panel dataset of monthly observations from 41 countries, including members of the ASEAN and EU, covering 2003–2024. Utilizing a global panel dataset and advanced regression methodologies, we find that increasing economic policy uncertainty worsens energy poverty, especially in emerging countries. Nonetheless, geopolitical risk weakens the relationship, highlighting its complex impact on national energy vulnerability. Moreover, advancements in energy transition partially mediates this relationship, substantially mitigate the effects of policy uncertainty, reinforcing the significance of renewable energy adoption. The results highlight the immediate requirement for integrated policy measures and rapid energy transition strategies to ensure fair access to sustainable energy and attain global energy sustainability objectives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115185"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The effect of unified national electricity markets: A simulation analysis in China 全国统一电力市场的影响：中国的模拟分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115222

Tielong Wu

{"title":"The effect of unified national electricity markets: A simulation analysis in China","authors":"Tielong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115222","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115222","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the potential effects of a unified electricity market in China, which accounts for roughly one-third of global electricity generation. We develop a theoretical framework combining the Cournot model, capturing firms' strategic behavior, with a cost-minimization benchmark. Using 2019 provincial data on thermal units, hourly electricity demand, and interprovincial transmission, we simulate five counterfactual scenarios. Results show that full national unification without transmission constraints substantially lower average electricity prices by 35.6%, reduce generation costs by 11.6%, and raise welfare by 12.1% relative to provincial autarky. By contrast, the cost-minimization model underestimates these gains, highlighting the importance of accounting for strategic behavior in assessing market outcomes. Regional coordination captures the majority of efficiency gains, while transmission bottlenecks limit price convergence and lead provincial disparities. We also find that market unification can produce counterintuitive effects on carbon emissions, as shifts between coal and gas generation may increase emissions even when total generation rises. These findings highlight the trade-offs between efficiency and environmental objectives and provide policy-relevant insights for the design of China's ongoing electricity market reforms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115222"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing industrial energy efficiency: Strategies, barriers and opportunities in the context of electricity supply challenges 提高工业能源效率：电力供应挑战背景下的战略、障碍和机遇

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115192

McArthur Fundira, Charles Mbohwa

{"title":"Enhancing industrial energy efficiency: Strategies, barriers and opportunities in the context of electricity supply challenges","authors":"McArthur Fundira, Charles Mbohwa","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115192","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115192","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Industrial energy efficiency is widely promoted as a means of reducing operating costs and advancing sustainability, yet its adoption within energy-intensive manufacturing remains uneven. This study examined how energy efficiency strategies, barriers, and policy influences manifest within a metal processing plant to identify practical levers for cost reduction and sustainable energy management. A quantitative case-study approach was adopted, using structured questionnaires administered to managerial and technical staff (<em>n = 29</em>). Descriptive and comparative analyses were applied to assess energy monitoring practices, technology adoption, perceived barriers and drivers, and policy effectiveness. The findings reveal a strong operational culture of energy monitoring and benchmarking, contrasted by limited system-wide optimisation and weak institutional alignment. Financial constraints and competing investment priorities were the most significant barriers, while cost savings, long-term planning, and integration of energy into environmental management systems emerged as dominant drivers. Policy instruments were viewed as moderately effective at present but increasingly crucial for future adoption. These insights are valuable for industrial managers and policymakers seeking to translate energy awareness into sustained efficiency gains and improved governance at the plant level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115192"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Carbon taxes and climate action: Lessons from Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina 碳税和气候行动：墨西哥、哥伦比亚和阿根廷的经验教训

IF 9.2 2区经济学

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115191

Elias Muzzi PintoCoelhoJunior , Paula Carvalho Pereda

{"title":"Carbon taxes and climate action: Lessons from Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina","authors":"Elias Muzzi PintoCoelhoJunior , Paula Carvalho Pereda","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we evaluate the emissions impacts of three national carbon tax policies implemented in Latin America: in Mexico (2014), Colombia (2017), and Argentina (2018). Using the Synthetic Control Method and a panel of 30 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2019, we construct data-driven counterfactual trajectories of per capita CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from energy and transport for each treated country. We find no evidence that carbon taxation significantly reduced emissions in Argentina or Colombia: although post-reform energy emissions fall relative to their synthetic controls, these differences do not survive placebo tests, and no significant effects are detected for transport emissions. In contrast, Mexico’s reform is associated with statistically significant reductions of approximately 7.9% in per capita energy emissions and 12% in per capita transport emissions in the post-tax period. These effects likely reflect not only the carbon tax itself, which was set at modest rates (up to about USD 3.5/tCO<sub>2</sub>), but also the simultaneous removal of fuel subsidies and broader fuel tax adjustments that increased effective energy prices. We use an evaluation of carbon taxes in developing economies to show the importance of policy design, complementary reforms, and institutional context for the effectiveness of carbon pricing. We do this by providing a cross-country analysis using (data-driven) country-specific synthetic counterfactuals that preserve heterogeneity in policy design and institutional context. Together, the results help reconcile mixed evidence in the literature and underscore that an effective policy requires broader coverage and higher prices over longer adjustment windows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"213 ","pages":"Article 115191"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2026-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0