From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis

Abstract

The 2022 energy crisis exposed deep structural vulnerabilities in the European gas market, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), a region historically dependent on Russian gas and lacking fully liberalized markets. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical assessment of the integration of the gas spot market in nine CEE countries from 2021 to 2024, employing Granger causality, Johansen cointegration, vector error correction models (VECM), impulse response functions, and forecast error variance decomposition. The results reveal an increase in regional price convergence, driven by expanded infrastructure, flexible trading mechanisms, and policy interventions such as the Ukrainian short-haul transit service and the EU's REPowerEU plan. However, integration and market cohesion remain uneven. Countries like Germany, Poland, and Czechia function as central price-setters, while others, notably Romania and Bulgaria, exhibit greater exposure to shocks. Infrastructure projects such as the GIPL interconnector and new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals significantly reduce price imbalances, but events like Germany's cross-border transport levy (GSU) introduce persistent distortions. This paper highlights progress and persistent asymmetries in the CEE gas market integration, offering insider policy recommendations. It demonstrates the need for coordinated policy action, harmonized regulation, and continued investment in interconnectors and storage to ensure resilient and interconnected gas markets throughout the EU.