Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-30DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114869
Sofia Maier , Ilda Dreoni
{"title":"Who is “energy poor\" in the EU?","authors":"Sofia Maier , Ilda Dreoni","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114869","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114869","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2022–2023 surge in global energy prices and the fairness challenges of the green transition have revived debates on energy poverty in Europe. However, the lack of consensus on measuring energy poverty hinders effective policy formulation and evaluation. This paper analyzes the EU-wide distribution and profiles of the “energy poor\" using four established indicators, two subjective and two expenditure-based, derived from statistically matched HBS and SILC household surveys. Our results suggest significant disparities: expenditure-based measures capture broader populations, particularly in middle- and high-income EU countries, with minimal overlap between indicators. Notably, only 0.3 % of the population is simultaneously classified as energy poor by the four indicators, while 40 % enter this group by at least one measure. By examining who is included or excluded under each indicator and their links to income and expenditure, we provide new insights into the potential heterogeneous distributional impacts of policies aimed at tackling energy poverty in Europe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114869"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114905
Yantuan Yu , Ning Zhang
{"title":"Revealing the power of market-based energy policy: Evidence from China's energy quota trading system using machine learning","authors":"Yantuan Yu , Ning Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114905","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114905","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effect of market-based climate policy instruments on a just transition cannot be underestimated, especially for developing economies. In this study, we provide rigorous empirical evidence on how China's Energy Quota Trading System (EQTS) can drive green technology innovation and support an equitable, low-carbon transition. Specifically, based on a quasi-experimental modeling framework, we use a Double Debiased Machine Learning method to estimate the casual effect of China's EQTS on energy productivity. Further, we explore the mechanisms of impact and examine heterogeneity effects from regional, resource endowment, and environmental regulation stringency perspectives. The empirical findings show that EQTS significantly improves energy productivity, exhibiting an average marginal effect of 13.2 %. Robustness checks confirm the validity of the results after controlling for potential confounders. Green technology innovation and energy transition function as critical pathways through which the policy enhances energy productivity. This study presents empirical evidence on how effective market-based regulatory mechanism are in the energy sector and offers practical policy recommendations for integrating innovation-driven strategies within national carbon mitigation frameworks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114905"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114906
Hongwang Chang , Yushuo Chen , Li Liu , Tao Wang , Pingjian Yang
{"title":"Balancing “today” and “tomorrow”: The role of environmental regulation in harmonizing intergenerational utility","authors":"Hongwang Chang , Yushuo Chen , Li Liu , Tao Wang , Pingjian Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114906","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114906","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental policy aims to ensure sustainable, green, and healthy economic growth through macroeconomic regulation. In the absence of a central planner, the current generation is likely to impose the negative externalities of its economic growth on future generations. This situation could lead to unsustainable economic development and severe environmental problems. Environmental regulation, with its unique characteristics, is increasingly recognized as a primary policy tool for addressing such environmental challenges. This paper theoretically examines the effects of environmental regulation on intergenerational utility using a two-period overlapping generations (OLG) model. Through simulations and empirical tests, we explore how environmental regulation harmonizes environmental quality with economic growth by promoting cleaner energy consumption and technological progress. Our analysis provides theoretical pathways for achieving this compatibility and offers policy insights to guide the development of effective environmental regulation. The study provides a framework for designing policies tailored to different stages of development and sectors, offering practical guidance for sustainable economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114906"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114882
Prashant Pant , Frank-Martin Belz
{"title":"Energy market liberalization and the emergence of new energy ventures in Germany","authors":"Prashant Pant , Frank-Martin Belz","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114882","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114882","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how energy market liberalization and the policies supporting renewable energy integration have influenced the emergence of new energy ventures in Germany. A wide range of policies is examined, including the Energy Industry Act (EnWG), the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), the Buildings Energy Act (GEG), and several others that have shaped the sector. The analysis is organized around the electricity value chain by considering upstream, midstream, and downstream segments and traces policy impacts on venture creation through data and case studies. The findings suggest a noticeable trend between regulatory measures and the development of innovative business models. Importantly, the study highlights that technological advancement alone is not sufficient; policy support, financial incentives, and market access mechanisms are critical drivers of both entrepreneurial activity and new venture emergence. The study provides practical insights for policymakers internationally, particularly in countries in the Global South that have yet to undergo energy market liberalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114882"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rethinking risk perception: Cultural cognition, gender, and caste in how Indians view nuclear energy","authors":"Prerna Gupta, Terre Satterfield, Milind Kandlikar, M.V. Ramana","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Indian state has ambitious targets for nuclear power. However, throughout India, nuclear power initiatives face considerable opposition relative to all other potential energy sources. Using a survey of Indian citizens across five states, we find that nuclear energy is perceived as highly risky in comparison to other large-scale energy sources. These perceptions are in line with findings in many countries globally, such as the United States and France. But unlike studies done in the global north, demographic factors such as gender have minimal influence on how nuclear energy is perceived. While egalitarian worldviews show a significant impact on perceived risk from nuclear energy, other variables that reflect different cultural worldviews such as communitarianism, have no impact. Regional differences among states and economic and political values that reflect debates on development have a significant impact on risk perceptions related to nuclear energy in the Indian context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114895"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145155946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114897
Krzysztof Waśniewski
{"title":"Transaction costs as a factor of adherence to institutionalized energy communities – case study of energy clusters in Poland","authors":"Krzysztof Waśniewski","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114897","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114897","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates why investors in Poland's rapidly growing sector of small renewable energy sources (RES, <1 MWe) largely avoid institutionalized energy communities, particularly energy clusters, despite strong regulatory support. Building on transaction cost economics, investment theory, and the property-rights approach, a real-options model is developed to evaluate the economically admissible level of transaction costs under different opportunity-cost assumptions. The model integrates asset structures, liquidity buffers, and operational surpluses, and is applied to Polish data on RES auctions, virtual prosumption, and the balance sheets of benchmark energy firms. Results show that when opportunity costs are charged on the total asset base, acceptable transaction costs are uniformly negative across all cases, leaving no room for rigid institutional commitments. Only when opportunity costs are assessed relative to equity do temporary, narrow windows of tolerance emerge, especially in early auction years or in firms with atypical equity structures. These findings explain the weak adherence to energy clusters: investors prioritize flexibility and liquidity, while rigid contractual schemes raise transaction costs beyond tolerable thresholds. The study concludes that institutional designs for energy communities should reduce sunk costs, enhance flexibility, and align incentives with investors' liquidity profiles rather than relying solely on price-based mechanisms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114897"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145156056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114883
Angel Melguizo , Raúl Katz , Juan Jung
{"title":"Can AI grow green? Evidence of a Kuznets curve among AI, renewable energies and emissions","authors":"Angel Melguizo , Raúl Katz , Juan Jung","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114883","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114883","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and the <em>green agenda</em> is one of the key current economic and social topics, driven by conflicting assumptions and evidence. On the one hand, AI use cases can drive energy savings, support renewable transition, and reduce emissions. However, its initial adoption significantly increases energy consumption, thereby deepening the challenges countries face to reach their environmental sustainability goals. This paper presents novel empirical evidence on AI development and its environmental implications in 23 middle and high-income countries, confirming that, initially, in the majority of countries AI increases energy consumption and CO2 emissions. However, we also show that these relationships are not linear, since, for high spending levels, AI has a positive impact on the environment in terms of emission reduction and higher reliance on renewable energies, a kind of g<em>reen AI Kuznets curve</em>. This reversal in the trend is achieved from $220-$580 AI market per capita, and therefore, as of today, only AI leading countries, such as Singapore and the US, are benefitting from this technological dividend. These results have clear policy implications, calling for a less fragmented global AI and energy governance given environmental externalities, national AI strategies with a solid energy pillar, and innovations in financing towards greener AI adoption, while achieving more transparency and standards for measuring and reporting its energy use.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114883"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145156057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-24DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114848
Joshua Neutel , Andrew Berson , Sarah Saltzer , Adam Brandt , John Weyant , Franklin M. Orr Jr. , Sally M. Benson
{"title":"What will it take to get to net-zero emissions in California?","authors":"Joshua Neutel , Andrew Berson , Sarah Saltzer , Adam Brandt , John Weyant , Franklin M. Orr Jr. , Sally M. Benson","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, a new modeling tool called DECAL (DEcarbonize CALifornia) is developed and used to evaluate what it will take to reach California's climate mandate of net-zero emissions by 2045. DECAL is a scenario-based model that projects emissions, society-wide costs, and resource consumption in response to user-defined inputs. DECAL has sufficient detail to model true net-zero pathways and reveal fine-grain technology insights. Using DECAL, we find the State can achieve 52 % of the emissions abatement needed to meet net-zero by 2045 using technologies that are already commercially available, such as electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewable electricity & storage. While these technologies are mature, the speed and scale of deployment required will still pose significant practical challenges if not technical ones. In addition, we find that 25 % of emissions abatement will come from technologies currently at early-stage deployment, and 23 % from technologies at research scale, motivating the continued research & development of these technologies, including zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles, carbon capture & sequestration, clean industrial heating, low global warming potential refrigerants, and direct air capture. Significant carbon dioxide removal will also be needed for California to meet its net-zero target on time, at least 45 Mt/yr and more likely up to 75 Mt/yr by 2045. Accelerating deployment of mature technologies can further reduce the need for carbon removal, nevertheless, establishing enforceable carbon removal targets and conducting policy planning to make said goals a reality will be needed if California is to meet its net-zero by 2045 goal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114848"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145118905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-22DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114900
Pingkuo Liu , Guangze Cai
{"title":"Is the energy subsidy able to promote the transition of “Carbon Neutrality” in China?","authors":"Pingkuo Liu , Guangze Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114900","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114900","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Although China has gradually phased out explicit fiscal energy subsidies, implicit subsidies in the form of indirect support remain widespread. While these subsidy policies promote economic and environmental benefits, they have also sparked controversy due to their distortion of market behavior and suppression of technological innovation. Previous studies have failed to adequately explain these policies due to their neglect of institutional complexity and the interactions between market actors. This paper aims to simulate the direct and indirect impacts of energy subsidy policies, providing quantitative evidence to assess the rationality of subsidy objectives. An Agent-based Stock-flow consistent model is proposed, which integrates the characteristics of China's energy transition and intermediate power modules. The research findings indicate that China's energy subsidy policies increase market uncertainty and lead to short-term unfairness. Additionally, the economic benefits derived from subsidies have not effectively translated into improved environmental benefits. Core issues such as industrial structure adjustment and renewable energy consumption remain unresolved. Therefore, the government needs to design a clearer phasing-out path for energy subsidies and avoid market distortions caused by policy conflicts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114900"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145110028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy PolicyPub Date : 2025-09-20DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114901
Janneke van der Leer, Paula Femenias, Kaj Granath
{"title":"Implementing minimum energy performance requirements ‘from the middle’: shifting levels of agency and capacity of housing developers in Sweden","authors":"Janneke van der Leer, Paula Femenias, Kaj Granath","doi":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114901","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114901","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Minimum energy performance requirements (MEPR) for new buildings are a key policy instrument to achieve climate targets and have been part of the EU's Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) since 2002. This study provides a novel longitudinal approach, following seven housing developers in Gothenburg, Sweden, and examining their engagement with MEPR implementation in newly built multi-family buildings across the design, construction, and use phases. Drawing on the middle-out perspective, it explores the agency and capacity of developers over time, offering insight into how motivations, priorities, and capabilities affect MEPR compliance. Energy performance data are combined with two rounds of developer interviews (2012 and 2021/2022) and planning documents to compare calculated and actual performance and to understand developer perspectives. Findings reveal that developer agency and capacity decline over time, particularly for those building to sell, and that meeting MEPRs requires not only local government enforcement but also active engagement from residents and energy managers. Based on these insights, four policy recommendations are proposed: (1) verify calculated and measured energy performance using high-resolution or smart meter data, (2) clarify responsibilities across national and local levels, integrating MEPR verification into mandatory inspections and post-occupancy monitoring, (3) strengthen operational energy management by extending accountability and promoting post-occupancy feedback, and (4) improve energy performance certificate (EPC) reliability through standardised, measurement-based methodologies to support compliance, evaluation, and user engagement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11672,"journal":{"name":"Energy Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"Article 114901"},"PeriodicalIF":9.2,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}