{"title":"Unveiling structural change determinants: A machine learning approach to long-term dynamics","authors":"Julián Salinas, Jianhua Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research aims to analyze the determinants of structural change (SC) between 2000 and 2021 by solving a classification problem via a novel combination of unsupervised and supervised machine learning (ML) techniques. These techniques facilitate training two binary logistic algorithms (LAs) that predict countries' long-term latent tendencies toward structural change (SC). The ML techniques employed in this study included principal component analysis (PCA), the validation set (VS) approach, the resampling approach, and the training of two benchmark algorithms to assess the trade-off between interpretability and prediction accuracy. In addition, supportive ML techniques including feature selection (FS), SHAP (SHapley additive explanations) values, the Lorenz Zonoid-based approach, and regularization, were used to enhance interpretability and model refinement. The findings demonstrate the empirical relevance of the SC's system approach and the predictors' potential to trigger cumulative causation mechanisms that engender systemic transformations and predict the long-term trends of countries toward an SC process or its stagnation and decline. The metrics indicate that the LAs demonstrate a notable capacity for prediction and classification, with a range of prediction accuracies from 0.87 to 0.97, an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.93 to 0.96, and a Youden index from 0.79 to 0.93. The study's findings offer empirical, actionable, and methodological implications for the SC field.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102290"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring the causal economic effects of scientific research—Evidence from the staggered foundation of the SENAI innovation institutes in Brazil","authors":"Torben Schubert , Denilton Darold , Markus Will","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How to estimate the economic returns of public science is a longstanding but equally challenging topic in quantitative science studies. In this paper, we exploit the staggered foundation of the SENAI Innovation Institutes (ISI) in Brazil since 2012 to estimate their effects on GDP using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach. Building on historical and institutional insights from interviews on the foundation process, we unravel the conditions under which the parallel trends assumption is likely to hold. Our analysis reveals that these institutes significantly contribute to GDP per capita, with an average treatment effect of 985 BRL (approximately €160). Moreover, by relying on detailed project-level data, we were able to show that the effects come almost exclusively from genuine research projects and not from the provision of scientific services, such as metrology. Finally, tentative calculations suggest that the SENAI ISI institutes may account for about 0.66 % of Brazil's overall GDP, emphasising the importance of applied science in regional economic development and providing insights into effective collaboration between research and industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102287"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Forecasting the Portuguese public hospitals performance: An impossible task?","authors":"Miguel Varela","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102289","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102289","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study has two main objectives: first, to evaluate the performance of public hospitals in Portugal and, second, to predict their development Utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI), this study predicts and evaluates the performance of public hospitals in Portugal. From 2013 to 2017, a sample of 28 public hospitals and hospital centers was analyzed. In 2018, projected MPI values were compared to actual values. The data used are those officially available at the time. The objective was also to delimit the time of the present research so that in a future study it will be possible to compare it with the period of the COVID pandemic. In this research, pre-COVID data are worked on and in a future publication, when official data are available for a period of five years post-COVID, we can compare the results obtained. The average DEA score for hospitals has been 0.648, and the score under variable returns to scale is 0.764, indicating a gradual improvement in performance. Over the years, both hospital and scale efficiency have increased. There is seasonality in the overall average MPI, with significant peaks in May and June. The study indicates that technological advancements have a greater impact on the MPI than changes in efficiency. The projected MPI indicates a marginal uptick for the year 2018, although the outcomes lack sufficient reliability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102289"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144703225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Realistic strategies for dynamic ambulance relocation","authors":"Yulia Karpova, Fulgencia Villa, Eva Vallada","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102279","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102279","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The location of vehicles is a decision of significant importance for Emergency Medical Services. However, the delivery of emergency care is dynamic in nature and the initial locations of ambulances may quickly prove inadequate for maintaining coverage as they are dispatched to attend to patients. Rather than increasing the size of the fleet of vehicles, research has focused on the dynamic relocation of ambulances. This approach allows available vehicles to move to sites beyond their usual bases, maintaining an appropriate level of service. The scientific community has proposed a wide variety of ambulance relocation strategies using different methodological approaches. However, most of the strategies have not been implemented by real life Emergency Medical Services. This study proposes a scenario-based dynamic relocation algorithm that incorporates the following realistic aspects: it allows ambulances to start and end their work shift at their usual base, regardless of the number of relocations performed; a methodology based on Geographic Information Systems is developed to determine the positions of ambulances en route in order to be able to assign these ambulances to emergencies. In addition, the importance of relocating ambulances at different times of the day is studied. The proposed algorithm is validated by applying it to a real life case, in the city of Valencia, Spain, where the importance of considering these realistic aspects is shown.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102279"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144665442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A multi-objective supply chain model for reducing carbon emissions and food losses in a multi-period mixed product environment","authors":"Chao-Hui Liao, Hsin-Wei Hsu","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental sustainability is increasingly crucial in supply chain management due to global warming. This presents challenges in optimizing supply chains for profitability while addressing carbon emissions and food loss. Cold chain technologies, while reducing food loss, often increase carbon emissions due to energy use. Strategies like market differentiation and reprocessing can mitigate food losses. This study develops a multi-period supply chain model that accounts for product quality differentiation, specifically focusing on mixed products comprising both processed and fresh food items. The model employs multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming to simultaneously optimize total profit and carbon dioxide emissions. It incorporates the aspect of diminishing food quality and addresses practical supply chain issues like batch production, inventory management, and remanufacturing. The study shows that two multi-objective planning approaches, LP-metrics and the ε-constraint method, can successfully reduce carbon emissions, albeit with a slight decline in profits. The ε-constraint method proves to be the most effective, achieving a 27.1 % emissions reduction with a 20.16 % profit decrease. In contrast, LP-metrics achieve a 20.32 % reduction in emissions with a smaller profit decrease of 12.34 %. Additionally, the research examines how carbon pricing policies affect supply chain planning. The results show that setting the carbon tax at 100 NTD leads to a modest decrease in carbon emissions but comes with a significant reduction in profit. Evaluating the outcomes of two assessment methods suggests that the recommended carbon pricing falls between 150 and 225 NTD. However, it may still be necessary to implement other complementary measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102285"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144656307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A.J. Soto-Vergel , D. Ramirez-Rios , J.C. Velez , R. Amaya-Mier
{"title":"An Industry 4.0 geolocation system for last mile ground disasters survivor detection: Tests and results","authors":"A.J. Soto-Vergel , D. Ramirez-Rios , J.C. Velez , R. Amaya-Mier","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research introduces a novel geolocation system for survivor detection after disasters, based on the Ground Disaster Information Management System (GDIMS) guidelines. Our geolocation system is a rapid deployment, low-power, and wide-area network solution that uses tiny machine-learning-based voice activity detection to obtain timely information in challenging disaster-struck environments. The system is designed to signal survivor existence on an interactive map and further guide search and rescue efforts during the aftermath of a disaster. The impact and relevance of this technology lie in its ability to continuously monitor disasters despite disruptions from remote, steep, and/or debris disaster surroundings, nontrivial locations of possible victims, and failed transportation and communication infrastructure. This research draws from lessons learned from past events, such as the 2017 and 2010 landslides in Mocoa and Gramalote, Colombia. Results from numerical tests conducted in Gramalote, Colombia, show the technological maturity of the system and its capabilities for possible real-world implementation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102270"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yaoyao Song , Yuelin Yang , Fangping Shang , Xuemei Jiang
{"title":"Exploring the agricultural synergy between carbon abatement and pollution reduction in China","authors":"Yaoyao Song , Yuelin Yang , Fangping Shang , Xuemei Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the prevalence of environmental issues facing agriculture, along with the pressing challenges of climate change and environmental pollution, it is imperative to pursue the agricultural synergy between carbon abatement and pollution reduction. This paper proposes a systematic measure of the synergy effect based on the construction of non-radial directional distance functions and marginal abatement cost of carbon emissions and pollution. The weak disposability assumption between agricultural desirable and undesirable outputs are incorporated and modeled strictly. Furthermore, we conduct an empirical analysis on 30 provinces of mainland China and derive several findings: (1) The agricultural synergy between carbon abatement and pollution reduction exists in most provinces, and it shows an evident upward trend; (2) The eastern region exhibits the lowest marginal carbon abatement cost, the highest marginal pollution reduction cost, and the highest synergy effect; (3) Further path selection analysis indicate that the carbon abatement priority scenario is the most applicable strategy. Based on our empirical findings, this study also provides corresponding policy recommendations to Chinese agricultural regulators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102284"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wenjing Yang , Lu Tao , Qingquan Li , Feiyue Li , Shiqi Du , Yue Zhang , Chao Gao , Xiaomeng Fang , Ziyang Zhang , Jingang Huang , Xiaobin Xu , Pingzhi Hou , Junhong Tang , Wei Han
{"title":"Spatial-temporal evolution of coupling coordination development between circular economy and tourism in the eastern regions of China","authors":"Wenjing Yang , Lu Tao , Qingquan Li , Feiyue Li , Shiqi Du , Yue Zhang , Chao Gao , Xiaomeng Fang , Ziyang Zhang , Jingang Huang , Xiaobin Xu , Pingzhi Hou , Junhong Tang , Wei Han","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this study, the comprehensive development index systems of circular economy (CDISCE) and tourism (CDIST) were constructed to measure the level of circular economy and tourism development in the eastern regions of China. The coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) was applied to evaluate the level of coupling coordinated development of CDISCE and CDIST. It was found that the overall development trend of circular economy and tourism in the eastern regions of China was positive. The CCDM described that the interaction between circular economy and tourism was constantly strengthening. Moreover, the modified gravity model was used to calculate the spatial connection strength of coupling coordination degree between circular economy and tourism. The highest spatial connection strength was observed in Beijing and Tianjin due to the policy support and resource concentration in the related regions. Finally, the grey model (GM) was used to predict the coupling coordination degree of the CDISCE and CDIST from 2024 to 2029 with the “good” class of accuracy. The evaluation system and analysis methods established in this study were expected to provide a basic reference for promoting the coupling coordination development between the circular economy and tourism as well as to realize regional sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102283"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144605696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Fleet sizing and dynamic relocation problems for electric kick scooter sharing system","authors":"I-Lin Wang , C.S. Shui , Yen-Tzu Yueh","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Electric kick-scooters (EKSs) have emerged as a promising solution to address first- and last-mile challenges in urban transportation. This paper presents an operational design framework that sequentially addresses fleet sizing and dynamic relocation problems to optimize operational performance. The fleet sizing problem aims to determine the minimal EKS fleet size and initial distribution required to achieve a predefined service level without considering battery charging or EKS relocations. The results indicate that fleet size increases with higher battery consumption per rental and elevated service level requirements. Three dynamic relocation strategies—truck-only, crowdsourcing-only, and hybrid—are modeled using a time-space network formulation to enhance system efficiency. Numerical analyses demonstrate that each relocation strategy significantly improves service levels compared to a non-relocation baseline. However, the maximum achievable service level is constrained by the initial fleet size and available relocation resources, and deploying extensive relocation resources for a smaller fleet cannot match the service rate improvements achievable through a larger EKS fleet. The results provide practical guidance for shared EKS operators, showing that hybrid relocation strategies can improve service performance under operational constraints. Among the three strategies, hybrid relocation consistently outperforms truck-only and crowd-only approaches when moderate relocation capacity is available.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102282"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144663050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An enhanced physical education evaluation algorithm for higher education using interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy information","authors":"Abrar Hussain , Kifayat Ullah , Zeeshan Ali , Sarbast Moslem , Tapan Senapati","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102280","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Physical education in higher education plays a significant role in the holistic development of students, including cognitive, physical, emotional, and social aspects. Decision-making models are essential for assessing the effectiveness of physical education programs in higher education. An interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy set is a practical approach used for handling uncertain and vague type information in the decision-analysis process. This article presents some flexible operations of Sugeno-Weber t-norms to fuse much human information under an interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy environment. We derive innovative mathematical terminologies of Sugeno-Weber t-norms, such as interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy Sugeno-Weber weighted average and interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy Sugeno-Weber weighted geometric operators with dominant properties of idempotency, monotonicity, and boundedness. The multi-attribute group decision-making problem is used to investigate complicated real-life application solutions. To prove the validation and compatibility of diagnosed theories, we discussed an application of physical education with the help of numerical examples and pioneered mathematical approaches. Additionally, a comparison technique is established to contrast the results of the proposed approaches with existing methodologies. Finally, the advantages and limitations of future directions are also discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"101 ","pages":"Article 102280"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}