Socio-economic Planning Sciences最新文献

Machine learning-based prediction of energy poverty in Bangladesh: Unveiling key socioeconomic drivers for targeted policy actions

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102213

Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Ajoy Rjbongshi , Bikash Pal , Kanchan Kumar Sen , Andrew J. Chapman

{"title":"Machine learning-based prediction of energy poverty in Bangladesh: Unveiling key socioeconomic drivers for targeted policy actions","authors":"Shamal Chandra Karmaker , Ajoy Rjbongshi , Bikash Pal , Kanchan Kumar Sen , Andrew J. Chapman","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102213","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102213","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy poverty remains a critical issue in Bangladesh, with substantial disparities in access to energy services across socio-economic and geographic groups. This study explores the socio-demographic factors driving multidimensional energy poverty and evaluates the potential of machine learning (ML) models to improve the predictive accuracy of the multidimensional energy poverty index score compared to traditional statistical models. Using national survey data, we first applied binary logistic regression to identify key determinants, such as division, place of residence, education, and financial inclusion. The results indicate that rural households, particularly in Rangpur and Barisal, face a significantly higher risk of energy poverty. In contrast, higher education and access to financial services are associated with reduced energy deprivation. Recognizing the limitations of traditional statistical models in capturing complex, nonlinear interactions and multicollinearity among socio-demographic factors, we implemented six ML algorithms—Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbor, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Artificial Neural Networks—to enhance predictive precision. The models demonstrated consistently high accuracy, with geographic and socio-economic factors like division, education and financial inclusion emerging as the most important predictors. Our findings emphasize the need for targeted energy policies, especially in rural areas and disadvantaged divisions. Promoting financial inclusion and improving educational access are recommended as effective strategies to further alleviate energy poverty. While the study provides valuable insights, it acknowledges the limitations of cross-sectional data and calls for further research using longitudinal approaches and an analysis of institutional factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102213"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143747873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainable food waste supply chain network design problem with government environmental oversight: Globalized robust bi-level model and exact algorithm

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102205

Yuexia Wang , Hongyan Ma , Ying Liu

{"title":"Sustainable food waste supply chain network design problem with government environmental oversight: Globalized robust bi-level model and exact algorithm","authors":"Yuexia Wang , Hongyan Ma , Ying Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of circular economy, governments and stakeholders are increasingly concerned about the sustainable development of food waste utilization. Due to the social value and economic significance of food waste recovery system, an examination is conducted on a sustainable food waste supply chain (SFWSC) with government environmental oversight. Under the uncertain amount of food waste collected daily, a novel globalized robust bi-level programming model with government oversight is proposed to optimize the reuse of food waste to minimize total costs and negative environmental impacts such as CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>. The characterization of the uncertainty of food waste involves a pair of inner and outer uncertainty sets. Based on strong duality theory, the globalized robust bi-level optimization model can be transformed into a computationally tractable mixed integer programming model. To improve solution efficiency and quality, this paper employs the Benders decomposition (BD) algorithm with two accelerated strategies to solve the equivalent model. Lastly, a large-scale case study of food waste management in Shandong Province, China, is carried out to showcase the applicability of the proposed model and algorithm. The results indicate that food waste companies can reduce total costs without increasing environmental impacts under government environmental oversight.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102205"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143724476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Financing road projects and its impact on off-farm work in rural China

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102209

Ligao Bao , Motoi Kusadokoro , Atsushi Chitose

{"title":"Financing road projects and its impact on off-farm work in rural China","authors":"Ligao Bao , Motoi Kusadokoro , Atsushi Chitose","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102209","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102209","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effective public sector decision-making in infrastructure financing is crucial for socio-economic development, especially in emerging economies. Since 2003, China has revamped its rural road construction policy, transitioning from “workers self-organised construction (Min Gong Jian Qin)\" to a “one project, one discussion (Yi Shi Yi Yi)\" approach and significantly increasing government investment. This study evaluates the impact of various financing sources—externally funded, self-financed, and mix financed—on rural off-farm income and migration intentions using the Chinese Household Income Project survey data, employing difference-in-differences and propensity score matching methodologies to analyze the socio-economic impacts of rural road projects financed through different sources on off-farm work income and migration intentions of the rural Chinese population. Findings reveal that externally funded road projects significantly enhance off-farm income and encourage migration intentions for work. Conversely, self-financed projects that rely on local villagers' contributions and voluntary labor, show no positive impact on off-farm income and unexpectedly reduce migration intentions. Importantly, projects with mixed financing models were found to have no significant impact on either off-farm income or migration patterns, highlighting challenges in the coordination and efficacy of these hybrid financing strategies. These results contribute to the discourse on public sector decision-making by demonstrating the critical role of government-funded infrastructure in facilitating socio-economic development in rural areas. The study underscores the importance of strategic resource allocation and effective financing models in enhancing rural infrastructure, increasing income, and enabling rural out-migration for improved livelihoods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102209"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of green e-commerce supply chain considering delivery time under reward–penalty mechanism based on confidence level 基于信任度的奖惩机制下考虑交货时间的绿色电子商务供应链分析

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102203

Rong Gao , Kexin Hua , Xiaosheng Wang , Jie Wei

{"title":"Analysis of green e-commerce supply chain considering delivery time under reward–penalty mechanism based on confidence level","authors":"Rong Gao , Kexin Hua , Xiaosheng Wang , Jie Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid growth of e-commerce and the increasing demand for green consumption are spurring the development of the green e-commerce supply chain, which poses new challenges, including the discrepancy between actual and promised delivery time of green products sold on e-commerce platforms.Due to the indeterminates in the market environment, we do not have sufficient relevant data to deduce the demand for new green products.Therefore, considering the consumer’s perception of the delivery time difference, we investigate the pricing and sales mode selection problem of the green e-commerce supply chain using uncertainty theory under four combination scenarios of two approaches (no incentives, consumer incentives) and two e-commerce sales modes (wholesale sales mode, platform sales mode). Instead of expected utility maximization, we assume that an e-commerce platform and a green manufacturer seek to maximize profits under uncertain demand based on greenness and delivery time difference with a certain confidence level, from which two centralized models and four Stackelberg decentralized models are constructed.The results show that supply chain members’ choice of sales mode is associated with risk attitude.In addition, the impact of promised delivery time on the optimal profitability of the supply chain member who is responsible for product delivery is related to the strength of consumer incentives under the reward and penalty mechanism. More importantly, the introduction of the consumer reward and penalty mechanism can effectively improve the greenness of products, the efficiency of delivery, the optimal profits of supply chain members and social welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102203"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating logistics planning and population sampling decisions for humanitarian needs assessment

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102204

Duygu Pamukcu , Melih Çelik , Burcu Balçık

{"title":"Integrating logistics planning and population sampling decisions for humanitarian needs assessment","authors":"Duygu Pamukcu , Melih Çelik , Burcu Balçık","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102204","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102204","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>After a disaster, humanitarian organizations must quickly assess the needs of affected populations spread across a large area to inform effective relief distribution. This process involves site visits and collecting information through interviews, where balancing travel time and assessment accuracy is critical. This paper introduces the <em>Assessment Routing Problem with Coverage and Accuracy</em>, which addresses the logistical planning and sampling decisions of a post-disaster needs assessment team. The problem involves determining which sites to visit, in what sequence, and how much time to spend at each site to collect information within a total assessment time limit. We present a mathematical model that balances site coverage and sampling accuracy, and propose a constructive heuristic and a tabu search algorithm to efficiently solve large-scale instances. Computational experiments demonstrate that the tabu search algorithm can quickly obtain optimal or near-optimal solutions for large instances, while the performance of the heuristic is influenced by network topology. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through a case study based on the 2011 Van Earthquake in Turkey. Our findings emphasize the trade-offs involved in prioritizing certain areas and the advantages of leveraging reliable prior information in the assessment process to achieve better site coverage and sampling accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102204"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risky decline? Exploring the determinants of pupil's proficiency development over time

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102207

Melisa L. Diaz Lema , Chiara Masci , Mara Soncin , Tommaso Agasisti

引用次数: 0

Predicting radiology service times for enhancing emergency department management

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102208

Davide Aloini , Elisabetta Benevento , Marco Berdini , Alessandro Stefanini

{"title":"Predicting radiology service times for enhancing emergency department management","authors":"Davide Aloini , Elisabetta Benevento , Marco Berdini , Alessandro Stefanini","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102208","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102208","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly challenged by overcrowding, resource shortages, and rising demand for care, which compromise operational efficiency and service quality. In response, machine learning (ML) is emerging as a powerful tool for ED management, offering predictive models to enhance real-time decision-making and optimize workflows.</div><div>This research aims to develop an ML-based system to predict service times for X-ray examinations in real-time – the most frequently conducted diagnostics in EDs. Using a dataset of 50,070 x-ray exams from a medium-sized ED, the model incorporates patient characteristics, radiology conditions, and ED status to estimate service times from prescription to report release. A comparative analysis of ML techniques identified Gradient Boosting as the most accurate approach. Additionally, feature importance and SHAP analysis revealed key factors influencing X-ray service times.</div><div>The developed system has the potential to provide ED managers with early warnings of potential delays or critical situations in the radiology unit, enabling proactive interventions and improving patient management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102208"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143714211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparisons of emission trading scheme implementation modes in a low-carbon supply chain

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102202

Xiaoyan Wang , Qiang Du , Jinzhao Shi , Jingtao Li , Libiao Bai

{"title":"Comparisons of emission trading scheme implementation modes in a low-carbon supply chain","authors":"Xiaoyan Wang , Qiang Du , Jinzhao Shi , Jingtao Li , Libiao Bai","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102202","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102202","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Emission trading scheme (ETS) is widely employed as a policy instrument in supply chain emissions management. Two modes of ETS implementation are commonly applied across supply chains: separately imposed ETS (S-ETS) and jointly imposed ETS (J-ETS). However, it is unclear how the two distinct modes of ETS implementation influence the economic and environmental performance of supply chains. This paper considers a low-carbon supply chain system comprising one supplier and one manufacturer, where all carbon emissions generated by supply chain members are constrained by ETS. By employing game theory and MATLAB numerical analysis software, this study investigates the impacts of the two ETS modalities on carbon abatement decisions, profitability and social welfare within the supply chain. Furthermore, the study examines a scenario incorporating government subsidies to enhance ETS efficiency. The results show that compared to S-ETS, J-ETS can reduce total carbon emissions of the supply chain with high carbon emission intensity. From the perspective of social welfare, J-ETS is also more advantageous for such supply chains. However, this ETS modality may negatively impact the supplier's profitability. When government subsidies are introduced into J-ETS, coordinated improvements in the economic and environmental performance of the supply chain can be achieved. This paper also provides the government with subsidy level conditions under which J-ETS can maximize social welfare for supply chains with varying carbon emission intensities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102202"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143681252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fairness-oriented multi-objective optimization of supply chain planning under uncertainties

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102198

Zijing Yang, Songsong Liu

{"title":"Fairness-oriented multi-objective optimization of supply chain planning under uncertainties","authors":"Zijing Yang, Songsong Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102198","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102198","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Fair strategies in the supply chain planning are important to the sustainability development of supply chains. This work addresses the fairness-oriented multi-objective optimization of the production, distribution and capacity planning problem of multi-period, multi-product global supply chains under uncertainties, to optimize cost, responsiveness and customer service level, simultaneously. A fuzzy-based optimization model is established and transformed into a deterministic mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation, in which a new formulation method is developed to transform the variables with fuzzy parameters in the index into a definite form. In addition, to achieve sustainable development of the supply chain, Nash bargaining method is used for the proportionally fair strategies between the multiple objectives. Finally, a numerical case is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and solution approach. The computational results are shown to be Pareto-optimal. The fair solutions under different allowed degrees of uncertainty are compared through the Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the obtained solutions are shown to be fairer than those from alternative solution method and capacity expansion strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102198"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143636625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Index generation for good governance via multiplicative data envelopment analysis

IF 6.2 2区经济学

Socio-economic Planning Sciences Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2025.102197

Ayça Özekin, Fadime Aksoy

{"title":"Index generation for good governance via multiplicative data envelopment analysis","authors":"Ayça Özekin, Fadime Aksoy","doi":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102197","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.seps.2025.102197","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While it is widely suggested that good governance is a prerequisite for development, many studies in recent years have called into question the calculation of World Governance Indicators (WGI) and the alleged relationship between good governance and development. From this point of view, this study aims to calculate a composite index to specify the level of good governance in 169 countries and examine the relationship between the good governance and human development. The study employs Emrouznejad and Cabanda (2010) output-oriented log-transformed multiplicative data envelopment analysis (MNCP) model, which is suggested to offer superior performance in composite index construction. This model outperforms standard DEA models in terms of its mathematical structure, providing solutions to criticisms regarding the calculation of the good governance index. The results indicate a correlation between the MNCP Model results and the HDI in countries of the higher-income group while showing no correlation between these variables in countries of other income groups. The overall findings reveal that, despite the widely accepted claims, good governance is not a necessary prerequisite for development in low, lower-middle, and upper-middle-income countries, while it is already an existing phenomenon in high-income countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":22033,"journal":{"name":"Socio-economic Planning Sciences","volume":"99 ","pages":"Article 102197"},"PeriodicalIF":6.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143681251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0