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Partial passive ownership holdings destabilizing collusion 部分被动所有权持有破坏稳定的勾结
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112642
Rupayan Pal , Emmanuel Petrakis
{"title":"Partial passive ownership holdings destabilizing collusion","authors":"Rupayan Pal ,&nbsp;Emmanuel Petrakis","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112642","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112642","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a homogenous good Cournot duopoly with linear demand, we demonstrate that partial passive ownership (PPO) holdings destabilize collusion as long as the bargaining power of the firm that owns stakes in its rival is not too high. Notably, if both firms have equal bargaining power during their negotiations over the surplus generated by collusion, an increase in PPO holdings always makes collusion less stable. Our findings have important policy implications for antitrust authorities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"257 ","pages":"Article 112642"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145236565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial reform and mortgage lending by systemically important financial institutions 金融改革和系统重要性金融机构的抵押贷款
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112633
Timothy Bianco , Gary Cornwall , Beau Sauley
{"title":"Financial reform and mortgage lending by systemically important financial institutions","authors":"Timothy Bianco ,&nbsp;Gary Cornwall ,&nbsp;Beau Sauley","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use proprietary transaction-level data from Intercontinental Exchange to examine how the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (DFA) affected mortgage risk-taking by the six largest US financial institutions (SIFIs). Following DFA, these banks originated fewer mortgages, with lower average loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and fewer high-LTV mortgages compared to other lenders. Our findings suggest that DFA curtailed risk taking among SIFIs but coincided with increased high-LTV lending by non-SIFIs, indicating a redistribution of risk to less regulated institutions. We provide the first transaction-level evidence linking DFA to measurable shifts in mortgage risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112633"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
AI’s predictable memory in financial analysis 人工智能在财务分析中的可预测记忆
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112602
Antoine Didisheim , Martina Fraschini , Luciano Somoza
{"title":"AI’s predictable memory in financial analysis","authors":"Antoine Didisheim ,&nbsp;Martina Fraschini ,&nbsp;Luciano Somoza","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Look-ahead bias in Large Language Models (LLMs) arises when information that would not have been available at the time of prediction is included in the training data and inflates prediction performance. This paper proposes a practical methodology to quantify look-ahead bias in financial applications. By prompting LLMs to retrieve historical stock returns without context, we construct a proxy to estimate memorization-driven predictability. We show that the bias varies predictably with data frequency, model size, and aggregation level: smaller models and finer data granularity exhibit negligible bias. Our results help researchers navigate the trade-off between statistical power and bias in LLMs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112602"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measuring economic sentiment from open-ended survey comments using large language models 使用大型语言模型从开放式调查评论中衡量经济情绪
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112622
Pascal Seiler
{"title":"Measuring economic sentiment from open-ended survey comments using large language models","authors":"Pascal Seiler","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112622","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112622","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article develops a novel economic sentiment indicator (LLM-ESI) by applying large language models to open-ended responses from Swiss business tendency surveys. Using a BERT-based transformer model, it extracts firm-level sentiment from free-text survey comments and aggregates it into a high-frequency indicator of macroeconomic conditions. The LLM-ESI closely tracks the business cycle and performs on par with, or better than, traditional benchmarks in nowcasting GDP. These results highlight the potential of large language models and open-ended survey responses to deliver timely and nuanced signals for real-time economic analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112622"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal inference for qualitative outcomes 定性结果的因果推理
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112626
Riccardo Di Francesco, Giovanni Mellace
{"title":"Causal inference for qualitative outcomes","authors":"Riccardo Di Francesco,&nbsp;Giovanni Mellace","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112626","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112626","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Causal inference methods such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences are widely used to identify and estimate treatment effects. However, when outcomes are qualitative, their application poses fundamental challenges. This paper highlights these challenges and proposes an alternative framework that focuses on well-defined and interpretable estimands. We show that conventional identification assumptions suffice for identifying the new estimands and outline simple, intuitive estimation strategies that remain fully compatible with conventional econometric methods. We provide an accompanying open-source R package, <span>causalQual</span>, which is publicly available on CRAN.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112626"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Misallocation and access to subsidized credit: Can the Brazilian Development Bank target credit-constrained firms? 分配不当和获得补贴信贷：巴西开发银行能瞄准信贷受限的公司吗？
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112631
Paulo Henrique Vaz , Guilherme Zambalde
{"title":"Misallocation and access to subsidized credit: Can the Brazilian Development Bank target credit-constrained firms?","authors":"Paulo Henrique Vaz ,&nbsp;Guilherme Zambalde","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112631","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112631","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) strongly increased its subsidized credit disbursements from mid-2000’s to mid-2010’s. We take advantage of a BNDES firm size reclassification in 2010 as a plausibly exogenous shock in access to subsidized credit to study BNDES’ ability to target credit-constrained firms. Our first result is that BNDES-subsidized credit does impact firms’ capital wedges (distortions relative to optimal allocation). Our main result suggests that BNDES was unable to direct its increased credit flows toward firms that contribute the most to the economy, suggesting that it may not be able to target credit-constrained firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112631"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ambiguity and the variance of gambles 模棱两可和赌博的变化
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112645
Karl Whelan
{"title":"Ambiguity and the variance of gambles","authors":"Karl Whelan","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ellsberg’s paradox shows that people prefer gambles with known probabilities to those where they are uncertain. Standard explanations rule out risk aversion by appealing to Savage’s (1954) subjective expected utility theory but this axiomatic approach leaves open other interpretations of the evidence. We provide a simpler argument: a routine application of the law of total variance shows that the variance of the payoff from a binary gamble is determined entirely by the mean probability belief, not by uncertainty about those beliefs. Ellsberg-type choices are not consistent with rational mean–variance evaluations of risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112645"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gauging inflation aversion through the lens of consumer sentiment 通过消费者情绪来衡量对通胀的厌恶程度
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112640
Geng Li, Nitish Ranjan Sinha
{"title":"Gauging inflation aversion through the lens of consumer sentiment","authors":"Geng Li,&nbsp;Nitish Ranjan Sinha","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose using the relationship between individual consumer sentiment and inflation expectations as a dynamic proxy for inflation aversion. We find a robust negative association between consumer sentiment and their own inflation expectations, especially during times of low inflation. This relationship holds when comparing the same individual’s sentiment and inflation expectations over time, suggesting a genuine inflation aversion. Our proposed metric indicates that, after the U.S. central bank adopted a 2-percent inflation target, consumers continued to be more averse to expectations of 2-percent than zero inflation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112640"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Risky business: Comparing the opportunity evaluation decisions of social and commercial entrepreneurs 风险企业：比较社会企业家和商业企业家的机会评估决策
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112634
Matthew D. Bird , Patrick Reichert , Vanina Farber
{"title":"Risky business: Comparing the opportunity evaluation decisions of social and commercial entrepreneurs","authors":"Matthew D. Bird ,&nbsp;Patrick Reichert ,&nbsp;Vanina Farber","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Via a choice-based conjoint experiment and Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis (HBA) of 2538 decisions from 141 entrepreneurs, we model opportunity evaluations as a utility maximizing response to identify and compare part-worth utilities for distinct levels of value capture and risk/uncertainty. Contrary to predictions from existing theories of the social entrepreneur, we find that social entrepreneurs are more risk averse and have less utility for uncertainty. Exploratory post-hoc analysis indicates that the risk aversion of social entrepreneurs is partly driven by lower collective efficacy, suggesting that social entrepreneurs conceptualize risk and uncertainty as an “other-regarding” construct that considers and affects additional stakeholders. Just as social entrepreneurs seek to maximize social value, they likewise construe the risk of loss through a social lens.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112634"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When half a boycott makes a winner: On Eurovision voting 当抵制的一半成为赢家：在欧洲电视网的投票中
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112639
Alexander Frug
{"title":"When half a boycott makes a winner: On Eurovision voting","authors":"Alexander Frug","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112639","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112639","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Boycotts are meant to isolate. A pushback — however small — is almost always inevitable. In settings with many alternatives, boycott tends to be diffuse, while counter-support is concentrated. This asymmetry can translate into a great advantage for the boycotted party.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112639"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145227157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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