Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-28DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112480
Chuanping Sun
{"title":"A correlation-robust shrinkage estimator: Oracle inequality and an application on out-of-sample factor selection","authors":"Chuanping Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112480","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112480","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Shrinkage methods are widely used in big data to achieve sparse variable selection and reduce overfitting. However, these methods, such as LASSO (Tibshirani, 1996), often struggle when faced with highly correlated predictors. In this paper, we examine a recently developed machine learning estimator that is robust to highly correlated variables, providing superior out-of-sample performance compared to traditional shrinkage techniques. We establish the asymptotic properties of this estimator under general conditions, including i.i.d. sub-Gaussianity. Empirically, we demonstrate the practical benefits of this approach in selecting factors to construct hedged portfolios, achieving significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to benchmarks such as LASSO, Ridge, and Elastic Net in an out-of-sample context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112480"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144756700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-26DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112511
Vaibhav Lalwani
{"title":"Finfluencer recommendations","authors":"Vaibhav Lalwani","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112511","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112511","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a novel dataset of videos posted by prominent Financial YouTubers in India, we analyse the factors affecting Financial Influencers’ stock recommendations. Our findings reveal that finfluencers are more likely to positively recommend stocks with strong past performance and high trading volumes, valuations and intraday activity. Additionally, the number of recommendations made by finfluencers predicts future stock returns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112511"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-26DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112506
Qingrong He , Dongwoo Lee , Qichao Shi
{"title":"Limited power of outside options: New evidence from ultimatum games","authors":"Qingrong He , Dongwoo Lee , Qichao Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112506","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112506","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We conduct an experiment to examine how responders’ outside options (<span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, out of 100) influence their bargaining power in modified ultimatum games, where <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> is systematically varied while proposers’ outside options remain fixed at zero. Using both between-subject (BSD) and within-subject (WSD) designs, we uncover two key findings that provide new insights about outside options in ultimatum bargaining. First, in the BSD treatments, proposers’ offers do not increase until <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> is sufficiently large (e.g., <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub><mo>=</mo><mn>40</mn></mrow></math></span>) and may even decrease when <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> is very small (e.g., <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub><mo>=</mo><mn>5</mn></mrow></math></span>). Second, in the WSD treatment, while proposers’ offers increase monotonically with <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>, the offer levels are significantly lower than those in the BSD treatments when <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> is small (e.g., <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>O</mi></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>20</mn></mrow></math></span>). These findings demonstrate that outside options are not always a bargaining advantage, highlighting the complex and context-dependent role of outside options in bargaining dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112506"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144739723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-25DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112521
Jianing Jiang, Ziyuan Xia
{"title":"From guerrilla warfare legacy to green transparency: The lasting impact of collectivism on corporate environmental disclosure","authors":"Jianing Jiang, Ziyuan Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112521","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112521","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Can the historical legacies of collectivism explain regional disparities in corporate green transparency? We address this question by examining China’s guerrilla warfare base areas, where prolonged collective living during the wartime period instilled durable collectivist norms. Using panel data from all A-share listed firms (2008–2023), we find that firms headquartered in these historically collective areas exposure exhibit significantly higher corporate environmental disclosure. To uncover the mechanism, we apply dictionary based text analysis to 2.7 million posts on the “Message Board for Leaders” and document that guerrilla regions exhibit stronger contemporary collectivist language. The effect intensifies in cities with specialized environmental courts and among firms designated as key pollution monitoring unit. Our results remain robust to alternative proxies, firm fixed effects, matched samples, and spatial‑inference checks. This paper demonstrate the enduring role of wartime legacies in shaping corporate transparency and illustrate how informal cultural norms complement formal governance to advance sustainability in emerging economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112521"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144722392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-25DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112509
Dominik Suri , Sebastian Kube , Johannes Schultz
{"title":"Evaluating Online Data Collection Platforms Using A Simple Rule-Following Task","authors":"Dominik Suri , Sebastian Kube , Johannes Schultz","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112509","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112509","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-quality experimental data is crucial for human-subject research. The increasing prevalence of online experimental studies has raised concerns regarding the quality and reliability of data collected in such environments. Recent evidence indicates that data quality varies across popular crowdsourcing platforms. We test if this also holds for less complex, easily comprehensible tasks. We find that compliance rates in a simple rule-following task are significantly lower in our Amazon Mechanical Turk sample compared to those from Prolific Academic and a German university lab.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112509"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144723705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-23DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112516
Wenpeng Chen , Jiaqi Wang , Shan Wang
{"title":"Economic uncertainty, digital transformation, and firm supply chain disruption risk","authors":"Wenpeng Chen , Jiaqi Wang , Shan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms (2003–2023), this paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on supply chain disruption risk and examines the mitigating effect of digital transformation by strengthening firms’ resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112516"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-23DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112503
Kit Pong Wong
{"title":"Prevention as a Giffen good: Further results","authors":"Kit Pong Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the demand for prevention when the price of prevention changes. We show that prevention cannot be a Giffen good for individuals who exhibit strongly decreasing downside risk aversion if the optimal probability of loss does not fall below <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span>. We further derive a necessary condition for the paradoxical result that prevention is a Giffen good. Calibrating the model with reasonable parameter values suggests that the necessary condition is unlikely to hold, rendering that prevention being a Giffen good may simply be a theoretical construct.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112503"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144713218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-21DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112498
Massimiliano Marcellino , Michael Pfarrhofer
{"title":"Nonparametric mixed frequency monitoring macro-at-risk","authors":"Massimiliano Marcellino , Michael Pfarrhofer","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112498","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112498","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We compare homoskedastic and heteroskedastic mixed frequency (MF) vector autoregression and Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models to assess their performance in predicting tail risk at short horizons. MF-BART is a nonlinear state space model, and we discuss approximation-based approaches to devise a computationally efficient estimation algorithm. The models are applied in an out-of-sample exercise for quarterly and monthly macroeconomic variables in Italy. The proposed econometric refinements yield improvements in predictive accuracy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112498"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144711824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-07-21DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112479
Lisbeth la Cour , Sanne Kruse-Becher , Birthe Larsen
{"title":"Family reunification and mental health","authors":"Lisbeth la Cour , Sanne Kruse-Becher , Birthe Larsen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112479","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112479","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyses the connection between migration policy and mental health, specifically how family reunification impacts adult immigrants’ mental health. Using Danish register data from 1995–2019, the study focuses on non-Western immigrants and the purchase of prescription medication for mental health issues. Results indicate that family reunification improves the mental health of low-income non-Western male immigrants, especially those unemployed before reunification. The positive impact is temporary for non-Western women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112479"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144686727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gender differences in college students’ academic performance during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: Is females’ recovery lagging behind?","authors":"Dora Gicheva , Julie Edmunds , Nir Eilam , Bryan Hutchins , Nina Arshavsky","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112491","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112491","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using administrative transcript records for all students enrolled in public postsecondary institutions in the state of North Carolina between the 2013–14 and 2022–23 academic years, merged with students’ high school records from the North Carolina Department of Public Instruction, we document gender gaps in academic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic at both two- and four-year colleges and universities. We find that academic outcomes for female and male students were trending similarly prior to the pandemic, but particularly since the fall of 2021, female college students have been passing fewer classes and experiencing slower credit accumulation, while we do not see corresponding gaps in the number of attempted credits. The gap is almost one fewer credit earned per year for female community college students, and 0.6 fewer credits at four-year institutions. There are also signs of growing gender gaps in persistence. We show suggestive evidence that the disparities in pandemic recovery for college students may in part be driven by larger learning losses for female students in secondary school. The findings have important implications for education and labor market research and policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"255 ","pages":"Article 112491"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144750333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}