Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-08DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112863
Halil Tunç
{"title":"Why strong regulators move slowly: A global paradox in central bank digital currency adoption","authors":"Halil Tunç","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112863","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112863","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why do countries with strong regulatory institutions progress more slowly in Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) development? Using a global panel of 133 countries over 2017–2024, this study examines CBDC progression as an ordinal policy innovation process. Mixed-effects ordered logit estimates show that digital readiness, captured by internet usage, cybersecurity capacity, and digital literacy, is positively associated with more advanced CBDC stages, while regulatory quality exhibits a negative association. High-quality regulators coincide with legal certainty, financial stability, and privacy over rapid experimentation. The findings indicate that CBDC adoption co-varies with regulatory prudence and public trust constraints, not technological feasibility alone.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112863"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146187644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112890
Satoshi Nakada , Hiroyuki Ozaki
{"title":"Comparative statics of uncertainty attitude for rank-dependent subjective expected utility","authors":"Satoshi Nakada , Hiroyuki Ozaki","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112890","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112890","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper considers two criteria for comparative statics of uncertainty attitude in a decision maker (DM), whose preference relation is represented by the rank-dependent subjective expected utility (RDSEU) (Nakada and Ozaki, 2025). We characterize the difference between the uncertainty attitudes of two DMs in terms of the shape of the distortion function.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112890"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147395122","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-10DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112835
Karoline Bax, Sandra Paterlini, Odino Valentini
{"title":"Corporate sustainability reporting directive impact on risk framing and commitment specificity: Evidence from EURO STOXX 50","authors":"Karoline Bax, Sandra Paterlini, Odino Valentini","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) has altered the tone and credibility of corporate climate disclosures among EURO STOXX 50 firms. Using company sustainability reports from 2020 to 2024, we construct two textual indicators based on ClimateBERT and <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>ClimateBERT</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>C</mi><mi>T</mi><mi>I</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>: (i) the Cheap Talk Index (CTI), which measures the prevalence of vague or aspirational language, and (ii) the Opportunity-Risk Index (OppRisk), which captures the balance between opportunity and risk framing (Bingler et al., 2024). Nonparametric comparisons of pre- and post-CSRD periods reveal a statistically significant rise in the CTI and decline in the OppRisk Index, indicating a shift toward increasingly more symbolic yet more risk-aware communication. These findings suggest that regulatory standardization may simultaneously encourage a riskier yet less opportunistic tone and incentivize more the use of generic, non-specific commitment language.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112835"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-07DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112860
Laurent Cavenaile
{"title":"Climate change, directed technical change and exhaustible resources","authors":"Laurent Cavenaile","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112860","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112860","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent decades have seen an increase in proven reserves partially driven by new extraction technologies such as fracking. Such innovation can not only affect extraction rates but also divert resources away from innovation in clean energy. We propose a model of directed technical change with innovation in extraction technologies which is able to replicate the recent trends in proven reserves. Our results highlight new mechanisms that affect the role of carbon taxes and clean R&D subsidies, generating significant implications for the design of climate policy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112860"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112859
Rory Quinlan, Roberto Pinheiro
{"title":"BLS payroll revisions: Forecasting recessions","authors":"Rory Quinlan, Roberto Pinheiro","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate the behavior of BLS monthly revisions to payroll growth at turning points. We find evidence corroborating claims by former BLS commissioners and market analysts that revisions tend to be larger around turning points. In contrast, evidence that revisions have higher serial correlation around turning points is limited. Similarly, the ability to use revisions to forecast recessions seems limited. Even within-sample, other readily available indicators do a better job at detecting recessions. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of revisions is poor.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112859"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-26DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112891
Liuchun Deng , Yufeng Sun
{"title":"On news blackout","authors":"Liuchun Deng , Yufeng Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112891","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112891","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper extends the canonical framework of media bias in Gentzkow and Shapiro (2006) by introducing silence as a reporting option. A media firm may sometimes receive no signal and can strategically withhold reporting to protect its reputation. We show that perfect ex post verification can induce an equilibrium with news blackout, in which the normal media firm stays silent regardless of the signal it receives. In contrast to Gentzkow and Shapiro (2006), greater verification does not necessarily improve information disclosure or welfare: when the firm is sufficiently risk averse or faces sufficiently high reputational costs from issuing an incorrect report, ex post verification can suppress reporting and reduce welfare.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112891"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-03DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112851
Diane Coyle , John McHale , Ioannis Bournakis , Jen-Chung Mei
{"title":"Converging to mediocrity: Trends in firm-level markups in the United Kingdom 2008–2019","authors":"Diane Coyle , John McHale , Ioannis Bournakis , Jen-Chung Mei","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112851","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>UK manufacturing productivity has declined sharply since 2008, yet little is known about the role of trends in firm-level markups in this context. We estimate firm-level markups using a structural demand approach with revenue shares and industry elasticities, which is complemented by a primal method. Findings indicate a decline in aggregate markups of two to five per cent from 2008 to 2019, driven mainly by within-firm declines. These results suggest that the UK’s productivity slowdown reflects structural deterioration within manufacturing firms rather than reallocation effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112851"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834
Boris Ginzburg
{"title":"A flexible measure of voter polarization","authors":"Boris Ginzburg","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a definition of ideological polarization that measures dispersion of voter ideology around any central point of interest to a researcher. Applying this framework to U.S. survey data reveals that polarization around right-of-center positions increased gradually, while polarization around left-of-center positions remained stable before rising sharply. I then show how this model of ideological polarization is linked to affective polarization and to increased salience of divisive issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112834"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857
Christophe Feder , Cristiano Antonelli
{"title":"Directed technological change, factor adjustment, and GDP: Two decompositions with OECD evidence","authors":"Christophe Feder , Cristiano Antonelli","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a growth-accounting approach based on a time-varying Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that decomposes the total technological effect on GDP into neutral and non-neutral components, separating pure productivity from effects induced by factor-quantity adjustments. Applied to a balanced panel of 32 OECD countries (1994–2019), the method shows that most of the technological impact on GDP arises from non-neutral components operating mainly through adjustments in factor composition and quantities, while the direct productivity contribution is often weak or negative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112857"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}