Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-29DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112334
Felipe Gomez-Trejos
{"title":"A note on energy sourcing and Federal Tax Credits to wind investments","authors":"Felipe Gomez-Trejos","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Production Tax Credit (PTC) has been critical for U.S. wind power expansion. I show that replacing the PTC with a subsidy designed to optimally vary by contract type increases wind capacity deployment while significantly reducing the fiscal cost of subsidization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112334"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143891912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-28DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112333
Joshua S. Gans , Richard Holden
{"title":"An ordinal solution to King Solomon’s dilemma","authors":"Joshua S. Gans , Richard Holden","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines mechanisms that can resolve ownership disputes when some agents know who the legitimate owner is, but others do not. The mechanism proposed is called “Solomonic” because it resolves the biblical dispute facing King Solomon over the true mother of a baby. It involves two stages of messages (claims) and yields truthful revelation using only ordinal restrictions on preferences.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112333"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-27DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112344
R. Pablo Arribillaga, Agustín G. Bonifacio
{"title":"Obvious manipulations, consistency, and the uniform rule","authors":"R. Pablo Arribillaga, Agustín G. Bonifacio","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the problem of allocating an infinitely divisible and non-disposable commodity among agents whose preferences are single-peaked, we show that the uniform rule is the only allocation rule that satisfies <em>efficiency</em>, the <em>equal division guarantee</em>, <em>consistency</em>, and <em>non-obvious manipulability</em>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112344"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112339
Yao Kang , Yuqing Zhang , Shuhui Wang , Zhiwen Zhao
{"title":"A new class of Z-valued INAR(1) models with application to mutual fund flows","authors":"Yao Kang , Yuqing Zhang , Shuhui Wang , Zhiwen Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112339","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112339","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div><span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued time series, which have discrete and quantitative observations on the set <span><math><mrow><mi>Z</mi><mo>=</mo><mrow><mo>{</mo><mo>.</mo><mo>.</mo><mo>.</mo><mo>,</mo><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>,</mo><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>,</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>,</mo><mo>…</mo><mo>}</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>, are commonly observed in economics and finance. <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued versions of integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models are frequently employed to fit <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued time series. However, the existing <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued INAR models encounter difficulties in data generation mechanism and statistical inference. To enhance the modeling and prediction of <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued time series, this article constructs a class of <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued INAR(1) models from a new perspective and studies the related statistical inference problem. Empirically, an application to mutual fund flows demonstrates that our model offers satisfactory performance in economics and finance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112339"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112336
Kyu Bong Cho , Jiri Havel
{"title":"The effects of foreign bank entry on bank inflows in emerging economies","authors":"Kyu Bong Cho , Jiri Havel","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112336","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112336","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of foreign bank entry on cross-border bank inflows into 33 emerging economies from 1995 to 2013. Using a bilateral country-level dataset, the analysis reveals three key findings. First, while the first entry of foreign banks does not significantly affect bank inflows from the home country of the foreign bank, the subsequent entries of foreign banks lead to a substantial increase in cross-border bank inflows to the host country. Second, subsequent-entry banks leverage the presence of incumbent foreign banks to attract bank flows more effectively. Third, our results stress the role of geographical proximity, shared institutional frameworks, and favorable economic conditions in both home and host countries as critical drivers of these inflows. These findings underscore the importance of policies that promote persistent openness to foreign banks while effectively mitigating potential risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112336"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112335
Chaehyun Pyun
{"title":"Trading on government contracts: The investment potential of public procurement awards","authors":"Chaehyun Pyun","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the relationship between government contract awards and stock performance. I find that government contracts are concentrated in the manufacturing, high-technology, and health sectors, reflecting policy priorities. Moreover, the probability of receiving a government contract increases for larger and more stable firms. Portfolio analyses show that investment strategies based on firms securing large government contracts generate positive cumulative returns and outperform the market. Additionally, contract size predicts long-term stock returns, driven primarily by large-cap firms. These findings offer insights for investors looking to leverage public procurement trends in strategic decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112335"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-24DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112340
Jingjing Yang , Timothy J. Vogelsang
{"title":"A bias reduced long run variance estimator with a new first-order kernel","authors":"Jingjing Yang , Timothy J. Vogelsang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112340","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112340","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a theoretical analysis of a bias-reduced long run variance (LRV) estimator in a simple location model with unknown mean. This LRV estimator uses a new kernel expressed as a weighted sum of two characteristic exponent <span><math><mrow><mi>q</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span> kernels to approximate the estimator proposed by Yang and Vogelsang (2018). This new kernel effectively reduces biases from autocovariance estimation and kernel downweighting, addressing the Parzen bias missed by fixed-bandwidth asymptotics. When applied to testing the mean in a simple location model, the bias reduced approach improves the size-power tradeoff in <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span>-tests in finite samples, reducing over-rejections faster than power loss as the bandwidth increases. The new kernel requires a smaller bandwidth than the Bartlett kernel under serial correlated errors to achieve the same null rejection probability. Smaller bandwidths also ensure positive semi-definiteness of this bias reduced LRV estimator for the bandwidths that optimize the testing’s size and power tradeoff in finite samples. A comparison with the Bartlett, quadratic spectral, and EWC estimators demonstrates the benefits of the proposed nearly unbiased method in hypothesis testing.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112340"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143886973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-22DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112359
Peibin Hou, Falin Sun, Wendiam Sawadgo, Samir Huseynov, Wenying Li
{"title":"The cost of raising a child: Equivalence scales in the United States","authors":"Peibin Hou, Falin Sun, Wendiam Sawadgo, Samir Huseynov, Wenying Li","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112359","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112359","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As fertility rates drop to another historical low, understanding the economic burden of child-rearing on household income, a main economic reason for falling birth rate, has become more crucial than ever. This study calculates a subjective equivalence scale explaining how much the income of a two-adult, one-child household should increase to maintain the same level of life satisfaction as a two-adult household, using a nationally representative U.S. sample. The results suggest that the equivalence scale for a two-adult, one-child household is 1.18, indicating that raising a child costs 18 % of a two-adult household’s income. Our analysis indicates that programs like the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) may be overly generous for households with one child, while the tax deduction policy does not cover child-rearing costs sufficiently.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112359"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-22DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112311
Manuel A. Gómez
{"title":"Sophistication drives higher growth than navïeté in the Ak model with hyperbolic discounting: An exhaustive numerical exploration","authors":"Manuel A. Gómez","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the <em>Ak</em> endogenous growth model with naïve and sophisticated agents under hyperbolic discounting. The utility function is isoelastic, with an intertemporal elasticity of substitution less than one. We derive a simple condition to verify that the effective rate of time preference is lower — and, consequently, the growth rate is higher — when agents are sophisticated rather than naïve. An extensive numerical analysis suggests that this condition holds across the entire feasible parameter space.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112311"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economics LettersPub Date : 2025-04-21DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112330
Xiaoliang Li , Ally Quan Zhang
{"title":"Topological chaos in oligopoly competition","authors":"Xiaoliang Li , Ally Quan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This letter demonstrates that oligopoly competition can exhibit topological chaos by applying Mitra’s sufficient condition. To overcome the computational challenges arising from the lack of a simple closed-form expression for the modal point, we develop a resultant-based method. Our results show that, for a sufficiently large number of firms, there must exist parameter values that guarantee topological chaos.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"252 ","pages":"Article 112330"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}