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Moral universalism: Incentivised evidence 道德普遍主义：激励证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856
Tom Lane
{"title":"Moral universalism: Incentivised evidence","authors":"Tom Lane","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There has been a recent surge in interest among economists in moral universalism, the extent to which individuals treat in-groups and out-groups equally in altruism and trust. I provide novel incentivised evidence, adding to the literature which has relied on survey-based measurements of universalism. Using data from dictator and trust games involving 17 identity groups across five dimensions, I find broad consistency with existing studies: universalism varies widely across individuals and is moderately stable across contexts. Relative to previous research, however, I observe weaker stability in universalism across identity dimensions and some differences in its predictor variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112856"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A simple prudential-effort foundation for the financial trilemma 金融三难困境的一个简单的谨慎努力基础
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112879
Charles Nolan
{"title":"A simple prudential-effort foundation for the financial trilemma","authors":"Charles Nolan","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112879","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112879","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The “financial trilemma” asserts that deep financial integration, purely national financial policies and financial stability cannot simultaneously be achieved. Existing formalisations employing ex post burden-sharing games imply the trilemma result hinges on equilibrium selection. We develop a minimal ex ante prudential-effort model where financial integration amplifies cross-border crisis risk and national regulators internalise only part of global losses. The unique symmetric Nash equilibrium underprovides prudential effort and cannot deliver first-best stability when both integration and national policy autonomy are high. That provides a unique-equilibrium foundation for the financial trilemma and clarifies when supranational prudential arrangements are needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112879"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank loan caps, debt substitution, and synchronization risk in credit crises 信贷危机中的银行贷款上限、债务替代与同步风险
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112895
Yiyao He , Hui Hu , Yuwei Ni , Zhongchao Yang
{"title":"Bank loan caps, debt substitution, and synchronization risk in credit crises","authors":"Yiyao He ,&nbsp;Hui Hu ,&nbsp;Yuwei Ni ,&nbsp;Zhongchao Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build a model of credit crises in which lenders delay exit from speculative sectors due to synchronization risk—uncertainty about when other lenders withdraw. Compared with nonbanks, banks recognize credit risk more quickly, withdraw earlier, and thereby help mitigate crises. When bank lending is capped, firms substitute toward nonbank debt, generating two opposing forces: a quantity effect, which lowers total debt, eases fire-sale pressure, and mitigates losses, and a substitution effect, which raises synchronization risk and amplifies crises. These forces imply a threshold substitution rate: below it, bank-lending caps mitigate crises; above it, they exacerbate them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112895"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Boys will be boys, but robots can help them: Gender, algorithmic compliance, and portfolio performance 男孩就是男孩，但机器人可以帮助他们：性别、算法遵从性和投资组合表现
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112874
Sophia Chiyoung Cheong , Jae Hyen Chung
{"title":"Boys will be boys, but robots can help them: Gender, algorithmic compliance, and portfolio performance","authors":"Sophia Chiyoung Cheong ,&nbsp;Jae Hyen Chung","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112874","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112874","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document a gender gap in the adoption of AI algorithmic advice. Using data from a Korean robo-advisory platform where users must manually approve trades, we find men are significantly more likely to comply with rebalancing proposals promptly than women. We trace this gap to execution frictions. Men execute trades rapidly and capture the algorithm's long-term annual performance premium, earning a 2.4% return to compliance. Women delay approval, creating an execution wedge that renders the advice statistically unprofitable for them. Our findings suggest that even in automated investing, human execution mechanics remain a critical determinant of portfolio performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112874"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regime-dependent predictive accuracy and structural stability of Eurozone inflation swaps 欧元区通胀掉期的制度依赖预测准确性和结构稳定性
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112826
Rafael Kothe
{"title":"Regime-dependent predictive accuracy and structural stability of Eurozone inflation swaps","authors":"Rafael Kothe","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of Eurozone inflation-linked swaps (ILS) across volatility regimes using a Markov-switching framework and regime-specific Mincer–Zarnowitz regressions. Results show a sharp divergence by maturity. While 12-month ILS remain approximately unbiased, their forecast precision (RMSE) deteriorates sharply in high-volatility states. In contrast, longer maturities (24–36 months) develop statistically significant, large positive biases (up to 378 basis points) and calibration losses evident across both volatility periods — a finding masked by standard asymptotic inference. These findings highlight the structural, persistent nature of the mispricing at medium horizons and the risk of policy misinterpretation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112826"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis 用于异构中介分析的基于树的混合模型
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838
Youquan Pei , Heng Peng , Chi Zhang
{"title":"A tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis","authors":"Youquan Pei ,&nbsp;Heng Peng ,&nbsp;Chi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a flexible and interpretable tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis, allowing both direct and indirect effects to vary across latent subgroups. Subgroup membership probabilities are modeled as functions of covariates using decision trees. An EM algorithm is developed to estimate subgroup-specific mediation effects and mixing proportions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the method accurately captures complex heterogeneity. Applied to the JOBS II experiment, our model uncovers distinct mediation pathways shaped by baseline depression and economic hardship, which are obscured under conventional homogeneous models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112838"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Re-evaluating Augusto Pinochet’s influence on Chile’s economic growth 重新评估奥古斯托·皮诺切特对智利经济增长的影响
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112841
Hector Ormeno , Ivan Korolev
{"title":"Re-evaluating Augusto Pinochet’s influence on Chile’s economic growth","authors":"Hector Ormeno ,&nbsp;Ivan Korolev","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses recent advances in the program evaluation literature to re-evaluate the role that Augusto Pinochet played in Chile’s economic growth. Our findings suggest that Pinochet’s rule had a negative effect on Chile’s economy. We use this exercise to compare the synthetic control method, generalized synthetic control method, and Bayesian structural time series model using simulations and placebo studies. The synthetic control method and Bayesian structural time series model tend to outperform the generalized synthetic control method in our setting. This is likely due to the small number of periods and limited factor loading overlap.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112841"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heat and hate: How temperature triggers discriminatory violence 热与恨：温度如何引发歧视性暴力
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112861
Michele Baggio , Revathy Surya Narayana , Shinsuke Uchida
{"title":"Heat and hate: How temperature triggers discriminatory violence","authors":"Michele Baggio ,&nbsp;Revathy Surya Narayana ,&nbsp;Shinsuke Uchida","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112861","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112861","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study how environmental stressors influence discriminatory behavior by examining the relationship between temperature and hate crimes in U.S. counties. Using weekly data over more than two decades, we show that an additional day with wet bulb temperature above 30°C increases hate crimes by about 13 percent and raises the number of offenders and victims involved. These effects are concentrated in counties with higher unemployment, lower education, and greater racial diversity, indicating that heat interacts with existing social and economic variables. We also find that the estimated effects are larger for crimes motivated by race and sexual orientation than for those motivated by religion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112861"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Banzhaf value for 2 × 2 exact assignment games is replication invariant 2 × 2精确分配对策的Banzhaf值是复制不变量
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112875
Chunyang Fu , Chenghong Luo , Chaoran Sun
{"title":"The Banzhaf value for 2 × 2 exact assignment games is replication invariant","authors":"Chunyang Fu ,&nbsp;Chenghong Luo ,&nbsp;Chaoran Sun","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112875","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112875","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For 2 × 2 exact assignment games, we show that the Banzhaf value is invariant through replication. Luo et al. (2024) show that a large class of semivalues converge to the same limit allocation in the core; hence, our result suggests that the Banzhaf value is the fastest possible in this setting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112875"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade resilience and its limits: Evidence from China's 1905 anti-American boycott 贸易弹性及其限制：来自中国1905年反美抵制的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112865
Guandong Wang , Mo Chen
{"title":"Trade resilience and its limits: Evidence from China's 1905 anti-American boycott","authors":"Guandong Wang ,&nbsp;Mo Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study re-examines China’s 1905 Anti-American Boycott by integrating archival evidence with Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods. It reveals a paradoxical pattern: a short-lived export surge, driven by merchants liquidating pre-committed inventories, preceding a sustained contraction. The 1905 episode offers a cleaner identification of how merchant-led initiatives interact with trade networks. This sequence underscores the tension between commercial rationality and nationalist sentiment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112865"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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