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Quantifying the geopolitical risk resilience of commodity futures markets
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112172
Jie Yang , Hao Yang , Yun Feng
{"title":"Quantifying the geopolitical risk resilience of commodity futures markets","authors":"Jie Yang ,&nbsp;Hao Yang ,&nbsp;Yun Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112172","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112172","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper focuses on the resilience of commodity futures markets specific to shocks of geopolitical risks. Our time-varying resilience measurement stems from the TVP-VAR model. The results show that not all precious metals are resilient to geopolitical disturbances, and only gold does. Nature gas appears to have the worst resilience, and WTI's resilience is enormously unstable. Utilizing the measured resilience to evaluate the security level of commodity markets is beneficial and promising to regulators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112172"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climate crisis on energy bills: Who bears the greater burden of extreme weather events?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112103
Xue Lei, Xueguo Xu
{"title":"Climate crisis on energy bills: Who bears the greater burden of extreme weather events?","authors":"Xue Lei,&nbsp;Xueguo Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing frequency of extreme weather events driven by global climate change poses a critical threat to energy system vulnerability and household energy security. Using meteorological data from NOAA and Chinese weather stations (2012–2022), this study examines the impact of extreme climate risks on household energy poverty. Our findings reveal two significant transmission channels: infrastructure disruption and price fluctuation. Extreme weather events compromise energy infrastructure stability and cause supply interruptions, while temperature extremes trigger energy price volatility and increase household expenditure burdens. We further find that regions with weak infrastructure, areas prone to natural disasters, and low-income households are particularly vulnerable to these impacts. These findings suggest that climate change may exacerbate social inequality through energy poverty channels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112103"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do China's greenfield foreign direct investments promote short-term innovation output growth in host countries?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112206
Jing Fang , Fanjie Fu , Xiaolin Yang , Shujie Yao
{"title":"Do China's greenfield foreign direct investments promote short-term innovation output growth in host countries?","authors":"Jing Fang ,&nbsp;Fanjie Fu ,&nbsp;Xiaolin Yang ,&nbsp;Shujie Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112206","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112206","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of China's greenfield OFDI on the short-term innovation outputs of host countries using a panel dataset covering 46 countries in 2003–21. Our findings provide evidence that challenges concerns about the threat posed by China's greenfield OFDI.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112206"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143165987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of term spread volatility on economic activity
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112190
Anastasios Megaritis , Dimitrios Bakas , Theodora Bermpei , Athanasios Triantafyllou
{"title":"The impact of term spread volatility on economic activity","authors":"Anastasios Megaritis ,&nbsp;Dimitrios Bakas ,&nbsp;Theodora Bermpei ,&nbsp;Athanasios Triantafyllou","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112190","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112190","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of the volatility of the US Treasury yield curve slope (term spread volatility) on US economic activity within a VAR framework. Our findings show that a positive shock to term spread volatility leads to a persistent decline in US industrial production. Moreover, our econometric results are the first to demonstrate that term spread volatility absorbs the macroeconomic predictive information contained in the level of the term spread. Finally, the negative effect of term spread volatility remains robust in alternative VAR models, as well when including popular uncertainty proxies such as the VIX and the EPU indexes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112190"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can supply chain finance policies enhance SMEs' Financial positions?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112193
Xueqin Hu
{"title":"Can supply chain finance policies enhance SMEs' Financial positions?","authors":"Xueqin Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112193","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112193","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how supply chain finance (SCF) policies impact Chinese SMEs’ financial health using A-share data. The 2020 REPS implementation significantly reduces cash conversion cycles, enhancing liquidity and operational efficiency. Robustness checks confirm the robustness of these findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112193"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Non-parametric tests of output- and cost-sharing games
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112184
H．Spencer Banzhaf , Yaqin Liu
{"title":"Non-parametric tests of output- and cost-sharing games","authors":"H．Spencer Banzhaf ,&nbsp;Yaqin Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112184","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112184","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The “tragedy of the commons” describes a variety of social dilemmas where total economic surplus is produced jointly from collective behavior and where individuals can strategically manipulate their share of the surplus. Recent research has shown that it is possible to test non-parametrically whether observed behavioral data are consistent with the canonical average return game, in which players share joint output in proportion to their inputs. We show that these tests extend to a much broader range of surplus sharing games. These games include equal-sharing of joint output and weighted averages of equal-sharing and proportionate sharing. They also include the average cost game, in which players share joint costs in proportion to the service provided them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112184"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of Nasdaq-100, U.S. Dollar Index and commodities on cryptocurrency: New evidence from Augmented ARDL approach
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112191
Fuzuli Aliyev , Neman Eylasov
{"title":"The impact of Nasdaq-100, U.S. Dollar Index and commodities on cryptocurrency: New evidence from Augmented ARDL approach","authors":"Fuzuli Aliyev ,&nbsp;Neman Eylasov","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the NASDAQ-100 index, the US dollar index and commodities on cryptocurrencies - bitcoin and Ethereum. The research used monthly data from January 2017 to August 2024, with a total of ninety-two observations. The stationarity of the variables was analyzed using different unit root tests, and it was found that the variables are stationary at different levels. In this context, the long-run cointegration relationship between the variables was first examined using the Augmented ARDL bounds test, and the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship was identified. According to the results of the long run estimation methods used in the study, we find that the US dollar index has a negative impact on both bitcoin and Ethereum, there is a positive and significant relationship between the Nasdaq index and bitcoin, while the relationship between the Nasdaq index and Ethereum is positive but not statistically significant. On the other hand, we find evidence that oil prices have a positive impact on both bitcoin and Ethereum. As a safe haven, we find no statistically significant relationship between gold and either bitcoin or Ethereum. These findings provide an important perspective on the impact of macroeconomic factors and commodity prices on cryptocurrencies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112191"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Calculating effective degrees of freedom for forecast combinations and ensemble models
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112137
James Younker
{"title":"Calculating effective degrees of freedom for forecast combinations and ensemble models","authors":"James Younker","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112137","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112137","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forecast combinations, also known as ensemble models, routinely require practitioners to select a model from a massive number of potential candidates. Ten explanatory variables can be grouped into <span><math><msup><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow><mn>1078</mn></msup></math></span> forecast combinations, and the number of possibilities increases further to <span><math><msup><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow><mrow><mn>1078</mn><mo>+</mo><msup><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow><mn>1078</mn></msup></mrow></msup></math></span> if we allow for forecast combinations of forecast combinations. This paper derives a calculation for the effective degrees of freedom of a forecast combination under a set of general conditions for linear models. It also supports this calculation with simulations. The result allows users to perform several other computations, including the F-test and various information criteria. These computations are particularly useful when there are too many candidate models to evaluate out of sample. Furthermore, computing effective degrees of freedom shows that the complexity cost of a forecast combination is driven by the parameters in the weighting scheme and the weighted average of parameters in the auxiliary models as opposed to the number of auxiliary models. This identification of complexity cost contributions can help practitioners make informed choices about forecast combination design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112137"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The effect of current health on time allocation and cognitive production
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112156
Mohammad Ali , Kira M. Villa
{"title":"The effect of current health on time allocation and cognitive production","authors":"Mohammad Ali ,&nbsp;Kira M. Villa","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112156","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112156","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a model exploring the effect of current health on cognition directly and indirectly, through time allocated to studying. We point to time allocation as an important channel in the link between current health and cognition during later childhood.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112156"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Plundered or profitably pumped-up? The effects of private equity takeover
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112054
Anders Kärnä , Samantha Myers
{"title":"Plundered or profitably pumped-up? The effects of private equity takeover","authors":"Anders Kärnä ,&nbsp;Samantha Myers","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the effects on firms that are acquired by private equity firms in a leveraged buyout, using detailed Swedish registry data covering 1998-2022. Acquired firms see a large increase in their debt and debt related variables, but no significant change in productivity. This suggests that, on average, private equity firms target profitable firms and increase their size through the addition of leverage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"247 ","pages":"Article 112054"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143166696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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