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A generalization of the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm 参数化期望算法的推广
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112790
Julien Pascal
{"title":"A generalization of the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm","authors":"Julien Pascal","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I show that the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm (PEA) can be naturally generalized via the bias-corrected Monte Carlo (bc-MC) operator, initially proposed to solve economic models using neural networks. When combined with a parameterized expectations approach and under a linearity assumption on the conditional expectation, the gradient of the bc-MC loss function is equal to that of the PEA in a neighborhood of the model’s solution. This leads to a new variance-reduced computational approach to solve economic models, which I refer to as the <em>bc-MC-PEA</em>, extending the PEA to multiple innovation draws for each state vector draw.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112790"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The end of free movement and international migration 自由流动和国际移民的终结
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112759
Samyam Shrestha , Hugo Sant’Anna
{"title":"The end of free movement and international migration","authors":"Samyam Shrestha ,&nbsp;Hugo Sant’Anna","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112759","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112759","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how the end of free movement following Brexit in January 2021 reshaped non-transient international migration flows involving the UK. Using a novel dataset of monthly bilateral migration flows from 2019 to 2022 constructed from Facebook user location data covering 181 countries with high spatial and temporal resolution, we estimate a gravity model framework to assess post-Brexit changes in migration patterns. We find that the end of free movement significantly reduced migration between the UK and EU countries, while migration from non-EU countries to the UK increased. Migration from the UK to non-EU countries also declined. These findings illustrate that Brexit reconfigured the geography and composition of international migration flows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112759"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dividend initiations, regulatory reforms, and institutional monitoring of insider trading: Evidence from India 股息发放、监管改革和内部交易的制度监督：来自印度的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112802
A. Sarath Babu , Chakrapani Chaturvedula , Nikhil Rastogi , K. Sriharsha Reddy
{"title":"Dividend initiations, regulatory reforms, and institutional monitoring of insider trading: Evidence from India","authors":"A. Sarath Babu ,&nbsp;Chakrapani Chaturvedula ,&nbsp;Nikhil Rastogi ,&nbsp;K. Sriharsha Reddy","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112802","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112802","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dividend initiations (DI) signal prospects but may invite insider trading via pre-announcement leaks, particularly in weak enforcement environments. Using 650 DI events from India (2002–2024), we find positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) signalling such activity. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) ownership curbs CARs more than Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) pre-reform, revealing an inverted U dynamic where FII monitoring peaks under weak enforcement but wanes post-Prohibition of Insider Trading Regulations (PITR)- 2015 due to substitution, while DIIs remain muted. Our results underscore the reforms' independent effectiveness and diminished dependence on foreign monitoring, guiding Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) towards strengthening domestic institutional capabilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112802"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145881044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic news and repricing of monetary policy expectations 宏观经济新闻和货币政策预期的重新定价
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112779
Fan Dora Xia, Xingyu Sonya Zhu
{"title":"Macroeconomic news and repricing of monetary policy expectations","authors":"Fan Dora Xia,&nbsp;Xingyu Sonya Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112779","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112779","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze how short-term government bond yields in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada respond to inflation and labor market news to infer the monetary policy reaction function as perceived by financial markets. Our findings reveal that the perceived reaction function varies across countries and evolves over time. Furthermore, we document significant spillovers from U.S. macroeconomic news to other countries, underscoring the pivotal role of U.S. monetary policy in shaping the global financial system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112779"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145881109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intra-cultural variation in individualism and credit discouragement 个人主义和信用挫折的文化内差异
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112796
Jérémie Bertrand , Valentina Febo
{"title":"Intra-cultural variation in individualism and credit discouragement","authors":"Jérémie Bertrand ,&nbsp;Valentina Febo","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112796","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112796","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Borrower discouragement occurs when eligible firms avoid applying for credit due to anticipated rejection. Using data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys and cultural measures from the World Values Survey, we show that intra-cultural variation in individualism increases discouragement, thereby advancing insights about cultural effects on economic behavior and access to credit.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112796"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145836850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial literacy is falling in Australia, except that it’s not 澳大利亚人的金融素养正在下降，但事实并非如此
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112797
Ferdi Botha, John P. de New
{"title":"Financial literacy is falling in Australia, except that it’s not","authors":"Ferdi Botha,&nbsp;John P. de New","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112797","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112797","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a nationally representative household panel for Australia, we observe an apparent significant deterioration in financial literacy between 2016 and 2020 and aim to identify its determinants. This surprising development is attributed to an exogenous change in interview mode from predominantly in-person to telephone, causally induced by the coronavirus pandemic. <em>Measured</em> financial literacy, though <em>not latent true</em> financial knowledge, declined as a result. Analyses of financial literacy or other cognitively demanding subjects must specifically take mode of interview into account, as mode changes can create spurious trends in cognitively demanding survey questions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112797"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy price pass-through with long-term contracts 能源价格通过长期合同传递
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112800
Dylan Brewer, Daniel Dench, Maxwell Rosenthal
{"title":"Energy price pass-through with long-term contracts","authors":"Dylan Brewer,&nbsp;Daniel Dench,&nbsp;Maxwell Rosenthal","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112800","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112800","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the pass-through of wholesale natural gas prices into 12-month fixed-rate residential contracts in Georgia’s deregulated natural gas market. Our theoretical model suggests that socially optimal contracts should uniformly pass through future wholesale fuel costs during the contract period. We find that total pass-through is close to complete, but almost entirely driven by contemporaneous and lagged wholesale prices. Future price pass-through is limited and sometimes negative, deviating from the theoretical socially optimal benchmark.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"260 ","pages":"Article 112800"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145974730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymptotic Nash implementation in large congestion-type games 大拥塞型博弈中的渐近纳什实现
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112768
Hanping Xu , Bin Wu , Enxian Chen
{"title":"Asymptotic Nash implementation in large congestion-type games","authors":"Hanping Xu ,&nbsp;Bin Wu ,&nbsp;Enxian Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112768","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112768","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper establishes an asymptotic implementation result in large congestion-type games. We show that if players in a large finite congestion-type game adopt the Nash equilibrium distribution of the corresponding continuum game, the resulting strategy profile forms an <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub></math></span>-Nash equilibrium with <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>ɛ</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>n</mi></mrow></msub><mo>∼</mo><mi>O</mi><mrow><mo>(</mo><msup><mrow><mi>n</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>. This provides a simple and practical way for players to achieve near-optimal outcomes without knowing the exact number of participants.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112768"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145750276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robust human capital investment 强劲的人力资本投资
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112809
Yingjie Niu , Zian Tang , Jinqiang Yang
{"title":"Robust human capital investment","authors":"Yingjie Niu ,&nbsp;Zian Tang ,&nbsp;Jinqiang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112809","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112809","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We consider the optimal skills acquisition and labor supply plans of a household that worries about model uncertainty and seeks robust decisions. Quantitative implications show that model uncertainty acts as a state-dependent amplifier on household effort. It induces higher effort at low to moderate debt levels via a precautionary motive, but this is eventually outweighed by an amplified <em>debt overhang</em> effect at high debt levels, leading to a lower level of effort. These shifts in household policies ultimately lead to a decrease in the household’s probability of default.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"260 ","pages":"Article 112809"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145904128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robust uniform nonparametric inference for time series 时间序列的鲁棒一致非参数推理
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112772
Nan Liu , Yanbo Liu
{"title":"Robust uniform nonparametric inference for time series","authors":"Nan Liu ,&nbsp;Yanbo Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112772","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112772","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work supplements Li and Liao (2020) by giving the uniform inference method for the nonparametric model that can include stationary mixingale and unit root regressors. The main intuition is to develop a self-generated regressor with reduced degrees of persistence and test an equivalent model under the null hypothesis. This paper gives the sup-test whose critical values can be approximated by score bootstrap and verifies the finite-sample performance numerically.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"259 ","pages":"Article 112772"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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