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A flexible measure of voter polarization 选民两极分化的灵活衡量标准
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834
Boris Ginzburg
{"title":"A flexible measure of voter polarization","authors":"Boris Ginzburg","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper introduces a definition of ideological polarization that measures dispersion of voter ideology around any central point of interest to a researcher. Applying this framework to U.S. survey data reveals that polarization around right-of-center positions increased gradually, while polarization around left-of-center positions remained stable before rising sharply. I then show how this model of ideological polarization is linked to affective polarization and to increased salience of divisive issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112834"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Directed technological change, factor adjustment, and GDP: Two decompositions with OECD evidence 指导性技术变革、要素调整与GDP：经合组织证据的两种分解
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857
Christophe Feder , Cristiano Antonelli
{"title":"Directed technological change, factor adjustment, and GDP: Two decompositions with OECD evidence","authors":"Christophe Feder ,&nbsp;Cristiano Antonelli","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112857","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a growth-accounting approach based on a time-varying Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function that decomposes the total technological effect on GDP into neutral and non-neutral components, separating pure productivity from effects induced by factor-quantity adjustments. Applied to a balanced panel of 32 OECD countries (1994–2019), the method shows that most of the technological impact on GDP arises from non-neutral components operating mainly through adjustments in factor composition and quantities, while the direct productivity contribution is often weak or negative.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112857"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Moral universalism: Incentivised evidence 道德普遍主义：激励证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856
Tom Lane
{"title":"Moral universalism: Incentivised evidence","authors":"Tom Lane","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112856","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There has been a recent surge in interest among economists in moral universalism, the extent to which individuals treat in-groups and out-groups equally in altruism and trust. I provide novel incentivised evidence, adding to the literature which has relied on survey-based measurements of universalism. Using data from dictator and trust games involving 17 identity groups across five dimensions, I find broad consistency with existing studies: universalism varies widely across individuals and is moderately stable across contexts. Relative to previous research, however, I observe weaker stability in universalism across identity dimensions and some differences in its predictor variables.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112856"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399873","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A simple prudential-effort foundation for the financial trilemma 金融三难困境的一个简单的谨慎努力基础
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112879
Charles Nolan
{"title":"A simple prudential-effort foundation for the financial trilemma","authors":"Charles Nolan","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112879","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112879","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The “financial trilemma” asserts that deep financial integration, purely national financial policies and financial stability cannot simultaneously be achieved. Existing formalisations employing ex post burden-sharing games imply the trilemma result hinges on equilibrium selection. We develop a minimal ex ante prudential-effort model where financial integration amplifies cross-border crisis risk and national regulators internalise only part of global losses. The unique symmetric Nash equilibrium underprovides prudential effort and cannot deliver first-best stability when both integration and national policy autonomy are high. That provides a unique-equilibrium foundation for the financial trilemma and clarifies when supranational prudential arrangements are needed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112879"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank loan caps, debt substitution, and synchronization risk in credit crises 信贷危机中的银行贷款上限、债务替代与同步风险
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112895
Yiyao He , Hui Hu , Yuwei Ni , Zhongchao Yang
{"title":"Bank loan caps, debt substitution, and synchronization risk in credit crises","authors":"Yiyao He ,&nbsp;Hui Hu ,&nbsp;Yuwei Ni ,&nbsp;Zhongchao Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112895","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112895","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We build a model of credit crises in which lenders delay exit from speculative sectors due to synchronization risk—uncertainty about when other lenders withdraw. Compared with nonbanks, banks recognize credit risk more quickly, withdraw earlier, and thereby help mitigate crises. When bank lending is capped, firms substitute toward nonbank debt, generating two opposing forces: a quantity effect, which lowers total debt, eases fire-sale pressure, and mitigates losses, and a substitution effect, which raises synchronization risk and amplifies crises. These forces imply a threshold substitution rate: below it, bank-lending caps mitigate crises; above it, they exacerbate them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112895"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Boys will be boys, but robots can help them: Gender, algorithmic compliance, and portfolio performance 男孩就是男孩，但机器人可以帮助他们：性别、算法遵从性和投资组合表现
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112874
Sophia Chiyoung Cheong , Jae Hyen Chung
{"title":"Boys will be boys, but robots can help them: Gender, algorithmic compliance, and portfolio performance","authors":"Sophia Chiyoung Cheong ,&nbsp;Jae Hyen Chung","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112874","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112874","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document a gender gap in the adoption of AI algorithmic advice. Using data from a Korean robo-advisory platform where users must manually approve trades, we find men are significantly more likely to comply with rebalancing proposals promptly than women. We trace this gap to execution frictions. Men execute trades rapidly and capture the algorithm's long-term annual performance premium, earning a 2.4% return to compliance. Women delay approval, creating an execution wedge that renders the advice statistically unprofitable for them. Our findings suggest that even in automated investing, human execution mechanics remain a critical determinant of portfolio performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112874"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regime-dependent predictive accuracy and structural stability of Eurozone inflation swaps 欧元区通胀掉期的制度依赖预测准确性和结构稳定性
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112826
Rafael Kothe
{"title":"Regime-dependent predictive accuracy and structural stability of Eurozone inflation swaps","authors":"Rafael Kothe","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112826","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112826","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of Eurozone inflation-linked swaps (ILS) across volatility regimes using a Markov-switching framework and regime-specific Mincer–Zarnowitz regressions. Results show a sharp divergence by maturity. While 12-month ILS remain approximately unbiased, their forecast precision (RMSE) deteriorates sharply in high-volatility states. In contrast, longer maturities (24–36 months) develop statistically significant, large positive biases (up to 378 basis points) and calibration losses evident across both volatility periods — a finding masked by standard asymptotic inference. These findings highlight the structural, persistent nature of the mispricing at medium horizons and the risk of policy misinterpretation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112826"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis 用于异构中介分析的基于树的混合模型
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838
Youquan Pei , Heng Peng , Chi Zhang
{"title":"A tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis","authors":"Youquan Pei ,&nbsp;Heng Peng ,&nbsp;Chi Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112838","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a flexible and interpretable tree-based mixture model for heterogeneous mediation analysis, allowing both direct and indirect effects to vary across latent subgroups. Subgroup membership probabilities are modeled as functions of covariates using decision trees. An EM algorithm is developed to estimate subgroup-specific mediation effects and mixing proportions. Simulation studies demonstrate that the method accurately captures complex heterogeneity. Applied to the JOBS II experiment, our model uncovers distinct mediation pathways shaped by baseline depression and economic hardship, which are obscured under conventional homogeneous models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112838"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conditioning prices on purchase history when sellers collect customer data 当卖家收集客户数据时，根据购买历史调整价格
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112836
Hiroki Kono , Susumu Sato
{"title":"Conditioning prices on purchase history when sellers collect customer data","authors":"Hiroki Kono ,&nbsp;Susumu Sato","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112836","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We consider behavior-based price discrimination by a monopolist that uses customers’ purchase histories and additional customer data to set prices. We find that, as data quality improves, the firm shifts its pricing strategy from screening high-valuation customers to selling to all customers, which benefits consumers. A further improvement in data quality, however, hurts consumers by facilitating price discrimination. This result indicates a novel positive effect of a firm’s data collection, even when it is used for price discrimination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112836"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Re-evaluating Augusto Pinochet’s influence on Chile’s economic growth 重新评估奥古斯托·皮诺切特对智利经济增长的影响
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112841
Hector Ormeno , Ivan Korolev
{"title":"Re-evaluating Augusto Pinochet’s influence on Chile’s economic growth","authors":"Hector Ormeno ,&nbsp;Ivan Korolev","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses recent advances in the program evaluation literature to re-evaluate the role that Augusto Pinochet played in Chile’s economic growth. Our findings suggest that Pinochet’s rule had a negative effect on Chile’s economy. We use this exercise to compare the synthetic control method, generalized synthetic control method, and Bayesian structural time series model using simulations and placebo studies. The synthetic control method and Bayesian structural time series model tend to outperform the generalized synthetic control method in our setting. This is likely due to the small number of periods and limited factor loading overlap.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112841"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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