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Media news and market expectations: Insights into the ECB's new data-dependent policy regime 媒体新闻与市场预期：洞察欧洲央行依赖数据的新政策体系
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111987
Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina , Andrea Monticini , Francesco Salsano
{"title":"Media news and market expectations: Insights into the ECB's new data-dependent policy regime","authors":"Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina ,&nbsp;Andrea Monticini ,&nbsp;Francesco Salsano","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111987","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111987","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Financial markets are known to respond to ECB policy announcements, yet these reactions could often reflect adjustments to heightened market expectations influenced by prior media coverage. News may have gained importance following the ECB's adoption of a “data-dependent” policy regime amidst persistent inflation in the Euro Area. Our empirical findings confirm this and underscore the complex interactions between media news and expectations in shaping market dynamics and reactions both before and during official policy announcements.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111987"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Too good to be true: A theory 好得不像真的一种理论
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111970
John R. Conlon , Feng Liu
{"title":"Too good to be true: A theory","authors":"John R. Conlon ,&nbsp;Feng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111970","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111970","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a Gaussian mixture prior with two clusters to explain market fears. We show that a surprisingly positive signal can shake investors’ confidence in their understanding of the market, and in the process, potentially lower their expectation of an asset’s value.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111970"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142315713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beliefs and the equity home bias 信念与房屋产权偏差
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111983
Xinxin Zhu , Peiran Jiao , Jichuan Zong
{"title":"Beliefs and the equity home bias","authors":"Xinxin Zhu ,&nbsp;Peiran Jiao ,&nbsp;Jichuan Zong","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111983","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111983","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the belief-based mechanism that potentially drives the equity home bias puzzle using a novel experimental design. We find that geographical information causally shapes investor beliefs, leading to a home bias effect in beliefs. Participants expect higher returns and lower risk from local stocks compared to non-local ones. Loss probability strongly predicts risk perception, but its effect weakens when the stock is local. Yet, we do not find a home bias in investment choices.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111983"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What does it mean to the environment when a firm mortgages its emission rights? Evidence from corporate green investment 企业抵押排放权对环境意味着什么？企业绿色投资的证据
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111988
Qun Wang , Yongliang Zeng , Xiangfang Zhao
{"title":"What does it mean to the environment when a firm mortgages its emission rights? Evidence from corporate green investment","authors":"Qun Wang ,&nbsp;Yongliang Zeng ,&nbsp;Xiangfang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111988","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111988","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Based on a sample of Chinese heavily polluting firms from 2008 to 2019, we examine the impact of the adoption of the emissions rights mortgage (ERM) policy on firm-level green investment. We find that an ERM policy significantly enhances firms’ green investment. This effect is more salient when financial constraints are higher, local marketization levels are higher, and local governments’ environmental concerns are higher. Our study provides empirical evidence and policy implementations for the further development of financial instruments based on emissions rights and other environmental rights, which show that ERM is a sound policy to promote a sustainable environment.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111988"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effects of mergers and acquisitions on food quality 并购对食品质量的影响
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111980
Wesley Blundell , Stephen Devadoss , Jeff Luckstead
{"title":"Effects of mergers and acquisitions on food quality","authors":"Wesley Blundell ,&nbsp;Stephen Devadoss ,&nbsp;Jeff Luckstead","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111980","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111980","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We examine the impact of mergers on product quality in the U.S. agri-food industry. Our difference-in-differences analyses provide evidence that following a one standard deviation increase in merger activity there is a 48.1% decrease in pounds of food recalled and an 18.7% decrease in the total number of recalls. A significant implication of our analysis is that increased concentration increases product quality.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111980"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs? 人工智能对劳动力的影响：任务还是工作？
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111971
Kathryn Bonney , Cory Breaux , Catherine Buffington , Emin Dinlersoz , Lucia Foster , Nathan Goldschlag , John Haltiwanger , Zachary Kroff , Keith Savage
{"title":"The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?","authors":"Kathryn Bonney ,&nbsp;Cory Breaux ,&nbsp;Catherine Buffington ,&nbsp;Emin Dinlersoz ,&nbsp;Lucia Foster ,&nbsp;Nathan Goldschlag ,&nbsp;John Haltiwanger ,&nbsp;Zachary Kroff ,&nbsp;Keith Savage","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111971","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111971","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Will the adoption of AI by businesses substitute for worker tasks or jobs? This is a core question for which relatively scarce evidence exists—especially in the wake of recent advances in generative AI. Using a new large-scale business survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that AI use is having a much greater impact on worker tasks than on employment levels at the firm level. About 27% of firms using AI report replacing worker tasks, but only about 5% experience employment change due to AI use. These rates are expected to increase to nearly 35% and 12%, respectively, in the near future.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111971"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142274013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimal initial donor selection for the synthetic control method 合成控制法的最佳初始供体选择
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111976
Giovanni Cerulli
{"title":"Optimal initial donor selection for the synthetic control method","authors":"Giovanni Cerulli","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111976","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111976","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper argues that the performance of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) can depend on the initial set of control units (donors) due to a bias–variance trade-off. A forward stepwise selection algorithm, validated via cross-validation, may reduce prediction error by suggesting to use fewer donors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111976"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142244118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the prevalence and intensity of labour shortages 关于劳动力短缺的普遍性和严重性
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111972
Erik Frohm
{"title":"On the prevalence and intensity of labour shortages","authors":"Erik Frohm","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111972","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111972","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Survey-based indicators of labour shortages are often based on the number of respondents that experience a shortage – the prevalence – overlooking the crucial element of shortage intensity. Using data from a large representative business survey in Sweden, this paper constructs an establishment-level measure of labour shortage intensity, by considering the number of positions in shortage and total employment at the establishment. According to the data, the average intensity of labour shortages has decreased by 32% since 2007. A new aggregate indicator of relative labour shortages (RLS) that accounts for both the average intensity and prevalence of labour shortages indicated more subdued labour market conditions in Sweden during the recovery from the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic than other indicators. Failing to account for the decline in the intensity of labour shortages mostly affects labour shortages in industry and less in services sectors.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111972"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142229297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robust dynamic trading with realization utility 实现效用的稳健动态交易
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111960
Jinping Zhang , Lei Zhou , Zhentao Zou
{"title":"Robust dynamic trading with realization utility","authors":"Jinping Zhang ,&nbsp;Lei Zhou ,&nbsp;Zhentao Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111960","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111960","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We incorporate model uncertainty into the intertemporal realized utility model proposed by Ingersoll and Jin (2013). We find: (1) model uncertainty erodes the investor’s value and makes him more willing to take the risk; (2) when ambiguity aversion is sufficiently high, voluntary realization of losses will not occur; (3) model uncertainty accelerates sales, thus shortening the average holding period and strengthening the disposition effect; (4) the disposition effect is weaker in the lower volatility case under model uncertainty, which is consistent with the empirical results; (5) model uncertainty alters the effect of volatility on the sale decision.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111960"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142243408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards a social cost of carbon with national characteristics 实现具有国家特色的碳社会成本
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111977
Jinchi Dong , Richard S.J. Tol , Fangzhi Wang
{"title":"Towards a social cost of carbon with national characteristics","authors":"Jinchi Dong ,&nbsp;Richard S.J. Tol ,&nbsp;Fangzhi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111977","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111977","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The majority of estimates of the social cost of carbon use preference parameters calibrated to data for North America and Europe. We here use statistically representative data for attitudes to time and risk across the world. The social cost of carbon is substantially higher in the global north than in the south. The difference is more pronounced if we count people rather than countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"244 ","pages":"Article 111977"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524004610/pdfft?md5=4f1f29693f5eeb2a8c5dc8b0f572595d&pid=1-s2.0-S0165176524004610-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142238409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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