Trend inflation and weak identification in the New Keynesian Phillips curve

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112517

Igor Mendes , Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón , Marcelo E.A. Silva

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate a generalized New Keynesian Phillips curve (GNKPC) using monetary shocks as instruments and an approach robust to weak instruments. Compared to the specification that disregards trend inflation, we find that the backward-looking term becomes statistically insignificant, the forward-looking coefficient is higher, and the slope of the Phillips curve is lower. Furthermore, we find evidence suggesting that the GNKPC is weakly identified. These findings highlight the importance of considering trend inflation in the monetary policy decision-making process.

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新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线中的趋势通货膨胀和弱识别

在本文中，我们估计广义新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（GNKPC）使用货币冲击作为工具和方法鲁棒弱工具。与不考虑趋势通货膨胀的规范相比，我们发现，回顾项在统计上变得不显著，前瞻性系数更高，菲利普斯曲线的斜率更低。此外，我们发现证据表明GNKPC是弱识别。这些发现强调了在货币政策决策过程中考虑通货膨胀趋势的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.