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How can governments mitigate statistical data manipulation? Evidence from China's enterprises’ direct report reform
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112293
Jingyu Zhang, Zhongyu Wang, Xiao Tang
{"title":"How can governments mitigate statistical data manipulation? Evidence from China's enterprises’ direct report reform","authors":"Jingyu Zhang,&nbsp;Zhongyu Wang,&nbsp;Xiao Tang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The reliability of China's GDP data has been a significant topic in economic research. However, few studies have estimated the strategies taken to improve data quality. This study examines the impact of the Enterprises’ Direct Report Reform on economic data quality in China. Using a novel statistical method based on Benford's Law to detect firm-level data manipulation, we employ a staggered difference-in-differences specification and find that the reform has reduced the degree of manipulation by approximately 15 % of a standard deviation, with this reduction primarily attributable to improvements in the data quality of private enterprises. Our analysis indicates that the reform is effective by engaging enterprises in data reporting, rather than simply imposing stricter monitoring within governments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112293"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143696095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Competitive outcomes in a Cournot-Tullock contest
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112285
Matthew J. Robertson
{"title":"Competitive outcomes in a Cournot-Tullock contest","authors":"Matthew J. Robertson","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I endogenise the value of the prize in an <span><math><mi>N</mi></math></span>-player Tullock contest as the total market revenue obtained in Cournot competition under linear inverse demand. The contest designer, by choosing the parameter relating players’ outputs to their share of market revenue, can maximise total surplus by implementing the perfectly competitive outcome. In contrast, the parameter that maximises players’ payoffs leads them to produce one-half of the perfectly competitive output, which is equivalent to <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mi>N</mi></mrow></math></span> of the monopoly output.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112285"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143705305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does education affect charitable giving?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112280
Shaoda Wang , Xiangyang Zhao
{"title":"Does education affect charitable giving?","authors":"Shaoda Wang ,&nbsp;Xiangyang Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112280","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112280","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the causal effects of education on charitable giving. We exploit variation in exposure to China’s compulsory education laws across cohorts and regions to construct instruments for schooling. Both OLS and IV estimation results show positive effects of education on donations. Further evidence suggests that education enhances preferences for fairness and increases awareness of social security problems, increasing perception of the social benefits of giving. Our paper highlights charitable giving as a novel channel through which education generates social benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112280"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143678937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extending fixed-point methods for equilibrium computation in markets with differentiated products
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112275
Marco Duarte
{"title":"Extending fixed-point methods for equilibrium computation in markets with differentiated products","authors":"Marco Duarte","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112275","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112275","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper extends fixed-point approaches for computing equilibrium prices under mixed-logit demand across various conduct models. Building on Morrow and Skerlos (2011), we reformulate iteration functions to improve convergence beyond Bertrand–Nash models of competition, including Cournot and Linear Pricing-Double Marginalization. Monte Carlo simulations and an application to the U.S. automobile industry show our method’s superior reliability in counterfactual price computations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112275"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143678921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A refracted process in options: A credit valuation application
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112276
Andrew Clare , Carlos Manuel Pinheiro , Alberto Franco Pozzolo , João Miguel Reis
{"title":"A refracted process in options: A credit valuation application","authors":"Andrew Clare ,&nbsp;Carlos Manuel Pinheiro ,&nbsp;Alberto Franco Pozzolo ,&nbsp;João Miguel Reis","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112276","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112276","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Borrowing from the principle of refraction in optics, we develop an option pricing model in which the underlying asset’s process changes upon touching a barrier, alongside a structural credit risk model. To achieve this, we extend the Black–Scholes and Merton models to incorporate regime shifts when a barrier is crossed. Our credit model demonstrates that if a drop in firm value below a certain threshold triggers a structural change in its policies — that in our framework is captured by a shift in the model governing its time evolution — this affects the initial value of its loans. As the policy change alters the underlying asset process, loan values decrease, and credit spreads widen. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for regime shifts and their impact on loan pricing in dynamic market conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112276"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143678926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Medical cannabis dispensary availability improved self-reported mental health among older adults in New York
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112295
Coleman Drake , Dylan Nagy , Matthew D. Eisenberg , David Slusky
{"title":"Medical cannabis dispensary availability improved self-reported mental health among older adults in New York","authors":"Coleman Drake ,&nbsp;Dylan Nagy ,&nbsp;Matthew D. Eisenberg ,&nbsp;David Slusky","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Evidence regarding cannabis legalization's effects on mental health remains mixed, despite both rapid increases in cannabis use and an ongoing mental health crisis in the United States. We use granular geographic data to estimate medical cannabis dispensary availability's effects on self-reported mental health in New York state from 2011 through 2021 using a two-stage difference-in-differences approach to minimize bias introduced from the staggered opening of dispensaries. We find that medical cannabis availability reduced past-month self-reported poor mental health days by nearly 15 %—3.77 percentage points—among adults 65 and above. Our findings also rule out that medical cannabis availability had negative effects on having past-month poor mental health days for the adult population overall. These results suggest medical cannabis, where it is geographically available, has positive mental health impacts for older populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112295"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anchoring bias in the NFL gambling market
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112288
Andy Fodor , Fernando M. Patterson , Corey A. Shank
{"title":"Anchoring bias in the NFL gambling market","authors":"Andy Fodor ,&nbsp;Fernando M. Patterson ,&nbsp;Corey A. Shank","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112288","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112288","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore the impact of the anchoring bias in the NFL betting market to overcome limitations within the financial literature regarding investor behavior. Consistent with an anchoring bias, we find that bettors prefer to bet on teams with better pre-season Super Bowl odds throughout the entire season. Importantly, we document that there is a significant relationship with profitability and pre-season odds in weeks two through eight of the NFL season, suggesting that sportsbooks do not take advantage of gamblers’ biases. Additionally, we provide evidence that sportsbooks continue to incorporate pre-season odds into their closing lines throughout the entire season, suggesting they may anchor to pre-season odds themselves. Our findings offer novel insights into anchoring behavior with important implications for understanding biases in financial markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112288"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143678934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymmetric free trade agreements
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112267
Vi Cao , Haifeng Fu , X. Henry Wang
{"title":"Asymmetric free trade agreements","authors":"Vi Cao ,&nbsp;Haifeng Fu ,&nbsp;X. Henry Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112267","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112267","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies endogenous coalition formation among two North countries and two South countries. A North country is characterized by a larger market size and a lower unit cost of production compared to a South country. We identify the conditions under which two asymmetric free trade agreements (FTAs), each formed between a North country and a South country, can emerge as equilibrium. Such equilibria, previously not documented in the literature, may have practical implications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112267"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The adoption of Large Language Models in economics research
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112265
Maryam Feyzollahi, Nima Rafizadeh
{"title":"The adoption of Large Language Models in economics research","authors":"Maryam Feyzollahi,&nbsp;Nima Rafizadeh","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112265","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112265","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops a novel methodology for estimating the adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) in economics research by exploiting their distinctive linguistic footprint. Using a rigorously constructed difference-in-differences framework, the analysis examines 25 leading economics journals over 24 years (2001–2024), analyzing differential frequencies between LLM-characteristic terms and conventional economic language. The empirical findings document significant and accelerating LLM adoption following ChatGPT’s release, with a 4.76 percentage point increase in LLM-associated terms during 2023–2024. The effect more than doubles from 2.85 percentage points in 2023 to 6.67 percentage points in 2024, suggesting rapid integration of language models in economics research. These results, robust across multiple fixed effects specifications, provide the first systematic evidence of LLM adoption in economics research and establish a framework for estimating technological transitions in scientific knowledge production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112265"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Machine learning the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112260
Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Karin Klieber , Massimiliano Marcellino
{"title":"Machine learning the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks","authors":"Niko Hauzenberger ,&nbsp;Florian Huber ,&nbsp;Karin Klieber ,&nbsp;Massimiliano Marcellino","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a method to learn the nonlinear impulse responses to structural shocks using neural networks, and apply it to uncover the effects of US financial shocks. The results reveal substantial asymmetries with respect to the sign of the shock. Adverse financial shocks have powerful effects on the US economy, while benign shocks trigger much smaller reactions. Instead, with respect to the size of the shocks, we find no discernible asymmetries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112260"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143654813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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