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Causal mediation analysis with nonignorable missingness in covariates, mediator, and outcome 在协变量、中介和结果中不可忽视缺失的因果中介分析
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113294
Zihan Zhang, Dehui Wang, Lianyan Fu
{"title":"Causal mediation analysis with nonignorable missingness in covariates, mediator, and outcome","authors":"Zihan Zhang,&nbsp;Dehui Wang,&nbsp;Lianyan Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Causal mediation analysis typically assumes that all variables are fully observed, yet missingness is common and often nonignorable. We develop a framework for mediation analysis when pretreatment covariates, the mediator, and the outcome are all subject to missing not at random (MNAR). We propose three interpretable MNAR mechanisms, namely response continuation, self selection, and missingness driven by covariates and the mediator. Under each, we establish nonparametric identification of mediation effects using a shadow variable and completeness conditions. Empirical results show that subjective well-being partially mediates the association between job satisfaction and depressive symptoms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113294"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Flood shocks, income inequality, and local economic structure: Evidence from Italian NUTS-3 regions 洪水冲击、收入不平等与地方经济结构：来自意大利NUTS-3地区的证据
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113283
Federica Cappelli, Mariagrazia D’Angeli, Alessandro Montanaro
{"title":"Flood shocks, income inequality, and local economic structure: Evidence from Italian NUTS-3 regions","authors":"Federica Cappelli,&nbsp;Mariagrazia D’Angeli,&nbsp;Alessandro Montanaro","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113283","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113283","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper estimates the dynamic effects of flood shocks on income inequality across Italian NUTS-3 regions over 2000–2020. Combining HANZE flood events with a newly constructed provincial Gini coefficients based on grouped municipal income tax records, we apply a local projections difference-in-differences (LP-DID) approach. Floods increase income inequality in the medium run, with effects peaking around three years after the event before declining. The impact is stronger in economically dense provinces and in areas with higher unemployment and agricultural employment, suggesting that local productive structure, labour market fragility, and sectoral exposure shape the distributional consequences of floods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113283"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149144735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Gender, risk aversion, and panic withdrawal in bank runs: Experimental evidence 性别、风险厌恶和银行挤兑中的恐慌性退缩：实验证据
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113211
Shaen Corbet, David Staunton, Steven Tucker
{"title":"Gender, risk aversion, and panic withdrawal in bank runs: Experimental evidence","authors":"Shaen Corbet,&nbsp;David Staunton,&nbsp;Steven Tucker","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113211","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113211","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite extensive evidence that women are more risk-averse than men, experimental bank run studies do not find consistent gender differentials across withdrawal behavior. We examine this puzzle using data from an incentivized laboratory experiment based on a two-bank Diamond–Dybvig game, with elicited risk preferences and variation in the banks’ portfolio-transparency policies. Results indicate that women are not more likely than men to withdraw early despite exhibiting greater risk aversion. We provide suggestive evidence that risk tolerance is related to beliefs about counterpart behavior among women while the corresponding relationship among men is small. Our findings indicate that beliefs about counterpart behavior, rather than risk preferences alone, are the dominant driver of withdrawal, and that the absence of gender differentials in the prior literature is a predictable consequence of effect size rather than evidence against a risk channel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113211"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149144738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How accurate is the Taylor approximation of bond returns? 债券收益的泰勒近似有多精确？
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113225
Jean-Michel Maeso, Vincent Milhau
{"title":"How accurate is the Taylor approximation of bond returns?","authors":"Jean-Michel Maeso,&nbsp;Vincent Milhau","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113225","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113225","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>By using a comprehensive dataset on US Treasury securities, we study the accuracy of first- and second-order approximations for bond returns. Using the duration alone leads to a systematic underestimation of returns, especially for long-term instruments, but a daily duration-convexity approximation is accurate at all maturities. For both approximations, including the “passage of time”, which is the contribution of discounting to the bond return, is essential, else returns are severely underestimated, especially if interest rates are high. A monthly approximation still gives acceptable results, but an annual one is less accurate, even if all terms are included.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113225"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149144742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sibling sex composition, race, and marriage in the United States 美国同胞的性别构成、种族和婚姻
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113260
Raymond Kim, Jose Rosa
{"title":"Sibling sex composition, race, and marriage in the United States","authors":"Raymond Kim,&nbsp;Jose Rosa","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113260","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113260","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using the universe of Texas births from 1976–1997, matched to marriage records through 2019, we provide the first U.S. evidence on how sibling sex composition affects marriage outcomes. First-born individuals with a same-sex younger sibling are more likely to marry, and to marry earlier, consistent with evidence from other settings. The scale and diversity of our setting further let us examine how these effects differ across race and ethnicity. We find they are concentrated among White individuals and in wealthier counties, with Hispanic women also responding in higher-income areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113260"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When does the mean welfare change exist? Compensating variation and the price–quality divide in random-coefficient logit 平均福利变化何时存在？补偿变化和价格质量在随机系数logit中划分
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113300
Yu-Chin Chen
{"title":"When does the mean welfare change exist? Compensating variation and the price–quality divide in random-coefficient logit","authors":"Yu-Chin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In random-coefficient logit, compensating variation (CV) is a log-sum difference divided by the marginal utility of income. A log-sum-exp bound shows that pure price-change CV is bounded and has finite moments under every admissible coefficient distribution. For quality changes, finite moments of policy-relevant willingness-to-pay (WTP) coefficients are sufficient. Under independence, finite taste moments, and a nondegenerate policy effect, finite inverse moments of income sensitivity are also necessary. Mean welfare existence therefore depends on the policy and the induced coefficient distribution, not on preference- versus WTP-space parameterization itself. Simulations illustrate this distinction and show why finite sample means cannot establish the existence of a population mean.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113300"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nighttime ethics: Do moral choices differ by time-of-day/night? 夜间伦理：道德选择是否因昼夜时间的不同而不同？
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113285
David L. Dickinson
{"title":"Nighttime ethics: Do moral choices differ by time-of-day/night?","authors":"David L. Dickinson","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine time-of-day (TOD) effects on moral choice by comparing afternoon (<em>DAY</em>: 3pm-5pm) and nighttime (<em>NIGHT</em>: 3am-5am) decisions across three incentivized tasks. While the <em>NIGHT</em> treatment successfully induced sleepiness, we report no evidence that circadian suboptimality shifts decisions towards one’s default ethical tendencies. Rather, the <em>NIGHT</em> treatment increased dishonesty in a victimless Die-Roll task but not when dishonesty harms another participant (modified Coin-Flip task) or in consequential moral dilemmas affecting <em>only</em> others’ outcomes (Payoff-Trolley task). Exploratory response-times evidence is consistent with immoral choices resulting from deliberative processes. Overall, these results indicate that moral choice exhibits task-dependent stability during circadian fatigue.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113285"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Diagnosing silent errors in replication packages: Evidence from an AI agent 诊断复制包中的静默错误：来自AI代理的证据
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113266
Leslie Tianyuan Zhang, Zeju Zhu
{"title":"Diagnosing silent errors in replication packages: Evidence from an AI agent","authors":"Leslie Tianyuan Zhang,&nbsp;Zeju Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113266","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113266","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We test whether an autonomous AI agent (Claude Code) can diagnose errors beyond rerunning code. The agent audits 40 AEA packages and reproduces results in all 26 with public data. We then seed a defect in each of 13 packages and conduct 39 blind sessions. It detects the defect in 37 sessions and provides the correct fix and statistical consequence in 34. Performance remains strong for silent defects that would pass a check based solely on matching reported regression estimates. Our results suggest that AI agents can add diagnostic value beyond re-execution and therefore lower the cost of computational reproduction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113266"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149144741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research choices of agentic artificial intelligence 研究人工智能的选择
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113264
Brett A. McCully
{"title":"Research choices of agentic artificial intelligence","authors":"Brett A. McCully","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113264","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113264","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Researchers increasingly rely on agentic artificial intelligence to assist with research. I examine the sampling and specification choices AI agents make and compare them to those of human experts. Fixing the research question and raw data across 156 agent runs, AIs tend to cluster on certain options. Compared to 145 human expert analyses of the same question and data, estimation outcomes are broadly similar. AI achieves this, however, via systematically different choices. Agentic AI thus remains an imperfect substitute for human researchers for the models tested.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113264"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202596","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How does monetary policy affect corporate innovation along the supply chain? The role of suppliers’ financial multiplier 货币政策如何影响供应链上的企业创新？供应商金融乘数的作用
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113293
Li Li, Xinyi Li, Xiaoyun Cheng, Wenjing Zang
{"title":"How does monetary policy affect corporate innovation along the supply chain? The role of suppliers’ financial multiplier","authors":"Li Li,&nbsp;Xinyi Li,&nbsp;Xiaoyun Cheng,&nbsp;Wenjing Zang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113293","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113293","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents granular evidence that highly leveraged suppliers magnify the propagation of contractionary monetary policy shocks through supply chains. Drawing on Chinese supply-chain data covering 2015Q1–2024Q1, we find that monetary tightening triggers sharper declines in innovation among downstream customers tied to high-leverage suppliers than among those linked to low-leverage suppliers. Mechanism analysis suggests that this amplification operates through disruptions to supplier–customer relationships and weakened knowledge spillovers along the supply chain. Moreover, this amplification is especially pronounced when suppliers provide more differentiated inputs and when supplier–customer relationships have longer durations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113293"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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