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Fear of war: Geopolitical risks and the potential impact on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in China
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112329
Daoping Wang, Kangle Li , Xinyan Shen
{"title":"Fear of war: Geopolitical risks and the potential impact on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in China","authors":"Daoping Wang,&nbsp;Kangle Li ,&nbsp;Xinyan Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of Taiwan Strait-related geopolitical risk on local government bonds, stock market and FDI in the Chinese mainland. Using data from 10,983 bonds, we find that increased geopolitical risks are associated with higher credit spreads. Provinces with higher FDI and greater foreign trade dependence, short-term bonds, and secondary market trading are more strongly affected. A case study demonstrates that geopolitical risk has an immediate and persistent impact on spreads, peaking within one month and gradually declining afterward. Moreover, heightened geopolitical risk negatively affects provincial FDI inflows and the stock returns of state-owned enterprises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 112329"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regime dependence in the oil-stock market relationship: The role of oil price uncertainty
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112291
Reinhold Heinlein , Scott M.R. Mahadeo
{"title":"Regime dependence in the oil-stock market relationship: The role of oil price uncertainty","authors":"Reinhold Heinlein ,&nbsp;Scott M.R. Mahadeo","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112291","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112291","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We compare the interaction between the crude oil and US stock markets in regimes where oil price uncertainty is high versus low, using a smooth transition vector autoregressive model. Our results show that supply- and demand-side shocks from the oil market, as well as stock market shocks, tend to have greater effect sizes in the lower oil price uncertainty regime. These asymmetric findings are consistent with the premise that shocks occurring in a relatively calmer environment are inclined to surprise market participants more, thereby eliciting amplified responses, than during an environment where oil price uncertainty is anticipated to be higher.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 112291"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do sticky prices or sticky wages matter for monetary non-neutrality?
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112310
Cheuk Yin Ho
{"title":"Do sticky prices or sticky wages matter for monetary non-neutrality?","authors":"Cheuk Yin Ho","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112310","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112310","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The textbook New Keynesian model shows that monetary non-neutrality exists in the presence of price rigidity or wage rigidity. This paper empirically examines the relative importance of these sources of nominal stickiness in transmitting monetary shocks on output. Difference-in-differences estimates show that relative to the sector without nominal stickiness, the output of the sector with sticky prices declines by about 2 percent at the trough after a one-standard-deviation increase in the contractionary monetary shock. The effects are smaller and statistically insignificant for the sector with sticky wages. The findings are robust to controlling for the kurtosis of price changes. Implications for theoretical modeling are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 112310"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unpacking economic mobility: The short- and long-term impacts of trade liberalization
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112327
Malabi Dass , Bidisha Lahiri
{"title":"Unpacking economic mobility: The short- and long-term impacts of trade liberalization","authors":"Malabi Dass ,&nbsp;Bidisha Lahiri","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112327","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112327","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trade liberalization impacts economic growth, inequality, and mobility, typically examined separately. By breaking down absolute economic mobility into these three areas, we explain how each component contributed to real per-capita expenditure changes due to tariff reductions. Using Indonesia's IFLS data, we connect individuals over the short term (1993–2000) and father-son pairs over the long term (1993–2014). Our analysis also considers if non-coresident father-son pairs behaved differently relative to coresident pairs. Further, we explore if the economically vulnerable segments were able to participate in the overall patterns experienced by the economy. We find that tariff reductions fostered absolute economic mobility of real per-capita expenditures by promoting regional growth, reducing inequality, and enhancing relative economic mobility, particularly benefiting the individuals and households in the lowest quartile. Over time, regional disparities in the effects of tariff cuts diminished as regions converged.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 112327"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous effects of economic cycles across the income distribution: A common factor model approach
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112302
Pourya Valizadeh , Akash Issar, Henry Bryant
{"title":"Heterogeneous effects of economic cycles across the income distribution: A common factor model approach","authors":"Pourya Valizadeh ,&nbsp;Akash Issar,&nbsp;Henry Bryant","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112302","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112302","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We extend the work of Bitler and Hoynes (2015), which uses state-level panel data and a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) model to examine the heterogeneous effects of economic cycles across the household income distribution. Using a more flexible common factor model that allows common shocks to have differential effects across states, we find statistically and economically significant differences from TWFE estimates, particularly at the lower tail of the income distribution. While TWFE estimates suggest a hump-shaped pattern — where effects are smaller at the lower and upper tails — our estimates indicate that cyclical impacts are largest at the lowest income levels and decline monotonically as income rises. These results suggest that conventional TWFE models may understate the vulnerability of lowest-income households to economic downturns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"251 ","pages":"Article 112302"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Can I afford to remember less than you? Best responses in repeated additive games
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112300
Franziska Lesigang , Christian Hilbe , Nikoleta E. Glynatsi
{"title":"Can I afford to remember less than you? Best responses in repeated additive games","authors":"Franziska Lesigang ,&nbsp;Christian Hilbe ,&nbsp;Nikoleta E. Glynatsi","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we study best responses in repeated additive games among two players. A stage game is additive if each player’s payoff is the sum of two components, and each component only depends on the action of a single player. We suppose one player’s strategy depends on the co-player’s last <span><math><mi>n</mi></math></span> actions. Then we prove that the other player has a best response that only depends on their own <span><math><mrow><mi>n</mi><mspace></mspace><mo>−</mo><mspace></mspace><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span> actions. That is, for an important sub-class of games and strategies, players can achieve maximum payoffs even with less memory than their opponent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112300"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimation and inference in a possibly multicointegrated system with a fixed number of instruments
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112297
Yixiao Sun , Peter C.B. Phillips , Igor L. Kheifets
{"title":"Estimation and inference in a possibly multicointegrated system with a fixed number of instruments","authors":"Yixiao Sun ,&nbsp;Peter C.B. Phillips ,&nbsp;Igor L. Kheifets","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112297","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112297","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper shows that the mixed normal asymptotic limit of the trend IV estimator with a fixed number of deterministic instruments (fTIV) holds in both singular (multicointegrated) and nonsingular cointegration systems, thereby relaxing the exogeneity condition in (Phillips and Kheifets, 2024, Theorem 1(ii)). The mixed normality of the limiting distribution of fTIV allows for asymptotically pivotal <span><math><mi>F</mi></math></span> and <span><math><mi>t</mi></math></span> tests about the cointegration parameters and for simple efficiency comparisons of the estimators for different numbers <span><math><mi>K</mi></math></span> of instruments, as well as comparisons with the trend IV estimator when <span><math><mrow><mi>K</mi><mo>→</mo><mi>∞</mi></mrow></math></span> with the sample size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112297"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143758944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rare disasters, local currency-denominated external debt and sovereign default risk
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112313
Jiahui Cheng, Senfeng Chang
{"title":"Rare disasters, local currency-denominated external debt and sovereign default risk","authors":"Jiahui Cheng,&nbsp;Senfeng Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the impact of rare disaster shocks on sovereign default and the role of local currency-denominated external debt (LCED) in mitigating the effects of disasters. Using panel data of 52 developing countries from 2000 to 2022, we find that rare disaster shocks significantly increase sovereign default risk, while LCED can mitigate the adverse effects of rare disaster shocks. Moreover, the effect is more pronounced in lower-income countries. Mechanism analysis shows that disaster shocks increase sovereign default risk by increasing external debt service and government expenditure, while LCED weakens the mechanism of external debt service. This study provides a theoretical foundation for developing countries to increase the proportion of LCED issuance as a strategic hedge against rare disaster shocks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112313"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Market reactions to Crypto-Specific announcements: Analyzing behaviors in coins and tokens
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112305
Jaeho Myeong , Donghoon Kim
{"title":"Market reactions to Crypto-Specific announcements: Analyzing behaviors in coins and tokens","authors":"Jaeho Myeong ,&nbsp;Donghoon Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates market reactions to crypto-specific announcements across coins (i.e., Bitcoin and Ethereum) and tokens. Announcements are obtained from the digital information disclosure platform Xangle. We analyze cumulative returns, intraday volatility, trading volume, and wallet-transaction measures. Positive and neutral announcements lead to significant increases in cumulative returns, accompanied by spikes in intraday volatility and trading volume, aligning with the semi-strong efficient market hypothesis. We introduce wallet-transaction measures from the on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, which decrease during positive or neutral announcements, indicating a shift from wallet activity toward speculative trading. Negative announcements yield mixed results, aligning efficient market hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112305"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ranking public expenditure programs
IF 2.1 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112290
Mathilde Almlund , Torben M. Andersen
{"title":"Ranking public expenditure programs","authors":"Mathilde Almlund ,&nbsp;Torben M. Andersen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112290","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112290","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The marginal value of public funds (MVPF) has been proposed as a criterion for choosing between social programs, but its appropriateness has been debated. In this paper, we show the MVPF is indeed providing the correct ranking when deciding on marginal increases in <em>net</em> spending, but it is not a valid criterion for selecting policies on which to increase marginal <em>up front</em> spending. In this case, the correct criterion is the Marginal Net Social Benefit (MNSB). This distinction is crucial for policymakers who operate under a fixed up front budget. We demonstrate that previous arguments in favor of the opposite conclusion rely on implicit assumptions of constant returns to scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"250 ","pages":"Article 112290"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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