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Trade resilience and its limits: Evidence from China's 1905 anti-American boycott 贸易弹性及其限制：来自中国1905年反美抵制的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112865
Guandong Wang , Mo Chen
{"title":"Trade resilience and its limits: Evidence from China's 1905 anti-American boycott","authors":"Guandong Wang ,&nbsp;Mo Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112865","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112865","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study re-examines China’s 1905 Anti-American Boycott by integrating archival evidence with Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods. It reveals a paradoxical pattern: a short-lived export surge, driven by merchants liquidating pre-committed inventories, preceding a sustained contraction. The 1905 episode offers a cleaner identification of how merchant-led initiatives interact with trade networks. This sequence underscores the tension between commercial rationality and nationalist sentiment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112865"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405050","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dating apps and marriage rates 约会软件和结婚率
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112873
Sunmi Jung, Lester Lusher
{"title":"Dating apps and marriage rates","authors":"Sunmi Jung,&nbsp;Lester Lusher","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate how the diffusion of the dating app Tinder affected marriage outcomes in the United States. Using Google search intensity for “Tinder” as a proxy for platform exposure and individual-level data from the Current Population Survey, we estimate event-study specifications for adults aged 21–35. We find no effect on overall marriage rates or the timing of first marriage. However, Tinder exposure is associated with higher divorce or separation rates, particularly at younger ages. Marriage effects emerge in male-heavy and thin dating markets, suggesting that dating apps primarily ease matching frictions rather than increasing aggregate marriage formation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112873"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Inflation attention and optimal decisions: Consumption/savings puzzle and asset prices 通胀关注与最优决策：消费/储蓄难题与资产价格
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112864
Chul Jang, Seyoung Park
{"title":"Inflation attention and optimal decisions: Consumption/savings puzzle and asset prices","authors":"Chul Jang,&nbsp;Seyoung Park","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112864","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112864","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the inflation attention effect on consumption, savings, and portfolio choice for an individual. The individual is exposed to an uncertain inflation shock which can raise her inflation attention. The individual consumes and invests a constant fraction of her total wealth, but the heightened inflation attention results in a consumption cutback with savings increased. Using a general equilibrium analysis, we show that low consumption and high savings with the identified inflation risk premium results in a lower interest rate and higher equity premium.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112864"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneity in MPCs and unexplained variation in consumption expenditures MPCs的异质性和消费支出的无法解释的变化
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112840
Filip Rozsypal , Kathrin Schlafmann
{"title":"Heterogeneity in MPCs and unexplained variation in consumption expenditures","authors":"Filip Rozsypal ,&nbsp;Kathrin Schlafmann","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Quantile regression is a popular method to estimate the dispersion in MPCs in the population. We discuss the challenges that this method faces given the large unexplained variation in consumption expenditures in survey data. We highlight that quantile regression estimates do not recover the distribution of MPCs if either unexplained variation is due to measurement error or if differences in MPCs are partly driven by ex ante heterogeneity across households. To quantify the likely extent of the bias, we propose a simulation-based approach where we back out the underlying distribution of MPCs for a range of calibrations that attribute the unexplained variation to a split between unobserved factors and measurement noise. All results point in the same direction: the true distribution of MPCs is significantly more dispersed than what is estimated by quantile regression.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112840"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the structure and existence of linear equilibria with a constrained trader 约束交易者线性均衡的结构与存在性
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112853
Heeyoung Kwon , Jin Hyuk Choi
{"title":"On the structure and existence of linear equilibria with a constrained trader","authors":"Heeyoung Kwon ,&nbsp;Jin Hyuk Choi","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112853","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112853","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study a discrete-time Kyle model with a single constrained trader, competitive market makers, and noise traders. Within the linear class, we show that any equilibrium necessarily reduces to a representation based on two state variables: the market maker’s expectation of the trader’s remaining demand and the residual demand beyond this expectation. This result implies that the equilibrium structure adopted in the continuous-time constrained trader model of Choi et al. (2023) is not a particular modeling choice, but the only linear structure consistent with equilibrium in the discrete-time analogue. We also establish the existence of a linear equilibrium in this setting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112853"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary tightening and the art-market speculative premium: evidence from a contemporary–19th century spread 货币紧缩和艺术市场投机溢价：来自当代- 19世纪的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112892
Ziwen Chen
{"title":"Monetary tightening and the art-market speculative premium: evidence from a contemporary–19th century spread","authors":"Ziwen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112892","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112892","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This note examines how U.S. monetary policy surprises reshape relative pricing across art-market segments. Using Artprice hedonic indices, I define a speculative premium as the return differential between Contemporary and 19th Century art. Local projections show that contractionary surprises compress this premium over the subsequent quarters (<em>h</em> = 0 denotes the next quarter). The effect is robust to equity-market adjustment. Point estimates are larger for tightening than easing surprises, but asymmetry tests are imprecise at some horizons. I discuss economic magnitude, timing in an illiquid auction market, and data limitations stemming from the absence of unsold lots.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112892"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The heterogeneous effects of large and small minimum wage changes on hours worked: Evidence using a partially pre-committed analysis plan 大大小小的最低工资变化对工作时间的异质性影响：使用部分预先承诺的分析计划的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112852
Jeffrey Clemens , Michael R. Strain
{"title":"The heterogeneous effects of large and small minimum wage changes on hours worked: Evidence using a partially pre-committed analysis plan","authors":"Jeffrey Clemens ,&nbsp;Michael R. Strain","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112852","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112852","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use a partially pre-committed estimation strategy to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data from 2011–2019, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, while the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Because we follow the same pre-committed analysis plan as Clemens and Strain’s (forthcoming) analysis of employment, we can directly compare the resulting employment and hours elasticities. We find that these elasticities were very similar in our empirical context.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"262 ","pages":"Article 112852"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147405052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
European booms and busts over six centuries 欧洲的繁荣与萧条持续了6个世纪
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112839
Don Bredin , Stilianos Fountas , Georgios Karras
{"title":"European booms and busts over six centuries","authors":"Don Bredin ,&nbsp;Stilianos Fountas ,&nbsp;Georgios Karras","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112839","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112839","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the impact of economic upturns and downturns on subsequent economic performance in Europe over six plus centuries. Instead of utilizing the conventional post-World War II framework, we employ a comprehensive panel of GDP data for England, Holland and Italy spanning more than 600 years. We find consistent evidence in favor of asymmetry. Downturns are followed by statistically significant higher growth rates, while upturns are followed by mildly lower growth rates which are often not statistically significant. Our finding of asymmetry suggests that business cycle properties are consistent with mechanisms similar to Friedman’s plucking hypothesis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112839"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146077066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why do effective tax rates fall with capital intensity? 为什么有效税率会随着资本密集度的下降而下降？
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112827
I. Bournakis , D. Christopoulos
{"title":"Why do effective tax rates fall with capital intensity?","authors":"I. Bournakis ,&nbsp;D. Christopoulos","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112827","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112827","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines why corporate effective tax rates (ETRs) tend to decline as capital per worker increases. We decompose the ETR into two channels: a statutory cost-recovery component that mechanically lowers the taxable base with capital accumulation, and a discretionary tax-planning component whose effectiveness rises with capital intensity. Using firm-level data from six European countries, we estimate this relationship non-parametrically. We find that a 10% increase in capital intensity reduces the ETR by about 0.30 percentage points in Hungary, 0.11 points in Spain, and 0.10 points in Italy. By contrast, no significant relationship is found for France, Germany, and the UK, suggesting cross-country differences in cost-recovery provisions and enforcement environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112827"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When (government) work disappears: Disparate employment effects of DOGE in the short-run 当（政府）工作消失：DOGE在短期内的不同就业效应
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112793
Brandon Enriquez
{"title":"When (government) work disappears: Disparate employment effects of DOGE in the short-run","authors":"Brandon Enriquez","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the short-run employment effects of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Using a difference-in-difference analysis, we find that DOGE reduced Black women’s federal employment by 25% as of August 2025. We do not find statistically significant effects on employment for other demographic groups. Between 20% and 40% of the disparate impact on Black women can be explained by baseline differences in age, education, and occupational composition. In metropolitan areas with more federal employees at baseline, Black women overall experienced greater decreases in labor force participation. Taken together, these results underscore the historic and continued importance of public sector employment for the economic advancement of Black women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"261 ","pages":"Article 112793"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147399880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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