通胀、工资和支出预期：来自消费者调查的证据

IF 1.8 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economics Letters Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112629

Monica Jain , Olena Kostyshyna , Xu Zhang

{"title":"通胀、工资和支出预期：来自消费者调查的证据","authors":"Monica Jain , Olena Kostyshyna , Xu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112629","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4– 2022Q3, we provide insight into the formation of expectations for inflation, wage and spending growth. The literature has documented that households associate higher expected price inflation with worse economic conditions, but that higher expected wage inflation is linked to better economic outcomes. Our paper finds that these views extend to households’ spending decisions: higher expected price inflation is also associated with lower expected household spending, while higher expected wage growth is linked to higher expected spending. These relationships became stronger during the high-inflation period.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"256 ","pages":"Article 112629"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Expectations of inflation, wages and spending: Evidence from a consumer survey\",\"authors\":\"Monica Jain , Olena Kostyshyna , Xu Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112629\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4– 2022Q3, we provide insight into the formation of expectations for inflation, wage and spending growth. The literature has documented that households associate higher expected price inflation with worse economic conditions, but that higher expected wage inflation is linked to better economic outcomes. Our paper finds that these views extend to households’ spending decisions: higher expected price inflation is also associated with lower expected household spending, while higher expected wage growth is linked to higher expected spending. These relationships became stronger during the high-inflation period.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11468,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economics Letters\",\"volume\":\"256 \",\"pages\":\"Article 112629\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economics Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525004665\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525004665","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

利用2014年第四季度至2022年第三季度加拿大消费者预期调查的家庭数据，我们深入了解了通胀、工资和支出增长预期的形成。文献表明，家庭将更高的预期价格通胀与更糟糕的经济状况联系在一起，但更高的预期工资通胀与更好的经济结果有关。我们的论文发现，这些观点延伸到家庭的支出决策：较高的预期价格通胀也与较低的预期家庭支出有关，而较高的预期工资增长与较高的预期支出有关。这种关系在高通胀时期变得更加紧密。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Expectations of inflation, wages and spending: Evidence from a consumer survey

Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4– 2022Q3, we provide insight into the formation of expectations for inflation, wage and spending growth. The literature has documented that households associate higher expected price inflation with worse economic conditions, but that higher expected wage inflation is linked to better economic outcomes. Our paper finds that these views extend to households’ spending decisions: higher expected price inflation is also associated with lower expected household spending, while higher expected wage growth is linked to higher expected spending. These relationships became stronger during the high-inflation period.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Economics Letters ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

348

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.