Bounded rationality in one-player guessing games

Abstract

This study examines deviations from optimal play in a one-player guessing game with a distance-based payoff function. Nearly half of the observed non-optimal choices follow simple numeric patterns: choosing identical numbers or selecting one as half of the other. These may reflect joint optimization against an unknown target or best-response reasoning as if facing an imagined opponent. Cognitive Reflection Test scores predict behavioral transitions from unstructured to patterned, and from patterned to optimal choices. The findings suggest that many seemingly suboptimal decisions reflect structured, payoff-sensitive reasoning shaped by how participants internally represent the game’s structure.