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Data-use limits and information complementarities 数据使用限制和信息互补性
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113292
Hailin Zhu
{"title":"Data-use limits and information complementarities","authors":"Hailin Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113292","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113292","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies how privacy-induced data-use limits affect production-side aggregate productivity when firms endogenously choose whether to produce high-precision information. Firms can pay a fixed cost to obtain a more precise productivity signal. Data-use limits reduce the effective precision of this signal, lowering the return to information production and raising the cutoff type for becoming informed. Aggregate productivity falls not only because informed firms receive less precise signals, but also because fewer firms choose to produce information. When information choices are locally strategic complements, the extensive-margin response is amplified in general equilibrium, so productivity losses can exceed partial-equilibrium effects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113292"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149144746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial risk and technology shifting: Firm-level evidence from the rise of AI 金融风险和技术转移：人工智能崛起带来的企业层面证据
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113291
Andrea Bacchiocchi, Germana Giombini, Ludovica Segneri, Francesco Venturini
{"title":"Financial risk and technology shifting: Firm-level evidence from the rise of AI","authors":"Andrea Bacchiocchi,&nbsp;Germana Giombini,&nbsp;Ludovica Segneri,&nbsp;Francesco Venturini","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113291","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113291","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does financial risk affect firms’ decisions to develop new technologies? We address this question in the context of the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Using data on 28,020 Italian firms observed between 2012 and 2019 and matched with patent records, we find that firms more exposed to financial risk, proxied by cash-flow volatility, are more likely to innovate in AI. The result is robust to financial, economic, market-uncertainty and technological controls. By contrast, financial risk has significantly weaker effects on innovation in more mature technologies. Our findings suggest that financially risk-exposed firms are more willing to invest in high-uncertainty/high-reward innovation domains, possibly to reduce future financial distress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113291"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reconsidering “Why do people dislike inflation?” 重新思考“为什么人们不喜欢通货膨胀？”
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-01 Epub Date: 2026-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113268
William J. Luther, Monica Escaleras
{"title":"Reconsidering “Why do people dislike inflation?”","authors":"William J. Luther,&nbsp;Monica Escaleras","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113268","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113268","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In a widely cited article, Shiller (1997) found that the public dislikes inflation to a greater extent than economists—and dislikes inflation for different reasons. We fielded a contemporary version of Shiller’s survey to consider how economists’ and the public’s views on inflation have changed over time. We find that, in some respects, economists’ views on inflation more closely resemble those of the public in our survey than was originally reported by Shiller (1997). But important differences remain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"269 ","pages":"Article 113268"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149202595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal forests versus penalized splines for heterogeneous treatment effects 异质性处理效果的因果森林与惩罚样条
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113205
Ivan Korolev, Abiodun Musbaudeen, Nency Dhameja
{"title":"Causal forests versus penalized splines for heterogeneous treatment effects","authors":"Ivan Korolev,&nbsp;Abiodun Musbaudeen,&nbsp;Nency Dhameja","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113205","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113205","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper compares causal forests with varying-coefficient penalized spline estimators for heterogeneous treatment effects. We conduct simulations with randomized treatment assignment that vary heterogeneity, predictor dimension, and discrete nuisance structure. Performance is measured by out-of-sample mean squared error. Forests perform best in Wager–Athey designs with sharp treatment-effect transitions. Penalized splines tend to dominate when heterogeneity is smooth, when the baseline mean and treatment effect differ in structure, and in mixed designs with continuous, binary, and group-level covariates. As group cardinality rises, forest performance deteriorates, while <span>mgcv</span> random-effect smooths handle group structure effectively and remain easy to implement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113205"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148935168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A note on the asymptotic unbiasedness of Akaike information criterion 关于赤池信息准则渐近无偏性的一个注记
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113191
Yong Li, Zhou Wu, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng
{"title":"A note on the asymptotic unbiasedness of Akaike information criterion","authors":"Yong Li,&nbsp;Zhou Wu,&nbsp;Jun Yu,&nbsp;Tao Zeng","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113191","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113191","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This note revisits the standard derivation of the asymptotic unbiasedness of Akaike information criterion (AIC). The existing literature has shown that AIC is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the predictive risk. However, there is a technical issue in these justifications. In this note, we bridge the gap and establish the asymptotic unbiasedness of AIC under certain regularity conditions, which are applicable in various scenarios. Our result suggests that AIC should be used with caution if the moment conditions on the parameter estimators may not hold. When model misspecification is allowed, our result can be extended to Takeuchi information criterion (TIC).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113191"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The difficulty of telling signal from noise when noise lingers 当噪音挥之不去时，分辨信号和噪音的困难
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-09-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113220
Bhagwan Chowdhry
{"title":"The difficulty of telling signal from noise when noise lingers","authors":"Bhagwan Chowdhry","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113220","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113220","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How many observations does it take to detect a fixed signal when the noise has long memory? For a sample-mean detector applied to a constant signal buried in fractionally integrated noise of order <span><math><mrow><mi>d</mi><mo>∈</mo><mrow><mo>[</mo><mn>0,1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span>, I give a closed-form expression for the sample size required to reach a target power at a fixed size: <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>T</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>q</mi></mrow></msub><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>d</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>=</mo><msup><mrow><mrow><mo>[</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>τ</mi><mo>+</mo><msup><mrow><mi>Φ</mi></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>q</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>)</mo></mrow><mspace></mspace><mi>σ</mi><msqrt><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>c</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></msqrt><mo>/</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>δ</mi><mi>x</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow><mo>]</mo></mrow></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn><mo>/</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn><mi>d</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>. The exponent <span><math><mrow><mn>2</mn><mo>/</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn><mi>d</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> is the whole story: the required sample size is a power function of detection difficulty whose exponent diverges as <span><math><mrow><mi>d</mi><mo>→</mo><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span>. A doubling of detection difficulty that costs four times the data under independence costs 2<sup>10</sup> times the data at <span><math><mrow><mi>d</mi><mo>=</mo><mn>0.4</mn></mrow></math></span>. A Monte Carlo confirms the formula delivers the target power and size.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113220"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148935179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Calibrating bid screens under quantity repricing 在数量重新定价下校准投标屏幕
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113201
Yisang Park
{"title":"Calibrating bid screens under quantity repricing","authors":"Yisang Park","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113201","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113201","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Holding score fixed, unit-price bidders can reallocate line-item prices to hedge quantity risk. Repricing governs how this hedge affects realized payment, while a bid screen limits its size. Their interaction leaves residual exposure: baseline exposure minus effective hedge capacity, truncated at zero. Under constant absolute risk aversion (CARA), residual exposure generates a certainty-equivalent premium in the first-price score equilibrium. With a fixed binding screen, stronger repricing raises expected procurement payments when lost hedge capacity exceeds direct exposure relief. Calibrating the screen to preserve residual exposure preserves allocation, bidder utility, and expected payment under mean-level normalization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113201"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Never normal: Distributional properties of rare earth returns 从不正常：稀土回报的分布特性
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113109
Lidia Obojska, Ailie Charteris, Jan Jakub Szczygielski, Janusz Brzeszczyński
{"title":"Never normal: Distributional properties of rare earth returns","authors":"Lidia Obojska,&nbsp;Ailie Charteris,&nbsp;Jan Jakub Szczygielski,&nbsp;Janusz Brzeszczyński","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113109","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113109","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rare earth elements are critical to national economic security. However, the distributional properties of rare earth returns remain largely underexplored. We fit 81 distributions to 17 rare earth oxide (REO) return series using three goodness-of-fit criteria. Heavy-tailed distributions—Generalised Hyperbolic, Normal Inverse Gaussian, Cauchy, noncentral <em>t,</em> Student's <em>t</em> and Generalised Error distributions—dominate, consistent with evidence for commodity markets, although some REO series exhibit more extreme tail behaviour. Some series also exhibit asymmetry. These findings have implications for risk assessment, forecasting, volatility and connectedness modelling, and for the future pricing of REO derivatives, where standard frameworks may understate tail risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113109"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Birth rates, longevity, and monetary transmission 出生率，寿命和货币传导
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113203
Seungjun Baek, Myunghyun Kim
{"title":"Birth rates, longevity, and monetary transmission","authors":"Seungjun Baek,&nbsp;Myunghyun Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113203","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113203","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The source of aging matters for the real-rate redistribution channel of monetary transmission in a three-generation life-cycle model. A given old-age dependency ratio can reflect higher longevity or a lower birth rate. We show that this channel depends on the source of aging and on who bears the fiscal cost, not on the ratio alone. When retirees bear a sufficiently large share of the fiscal cost, the low-birth-rate economy has the larger consumption response to a real interest-rate increase. Otherwise, the high-longevity economy has the larger response.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113203"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148951885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bank market power and fire-sale amplification under earnings-based constraints 基于盈利约束下的银行市场支配力和贱卖放大
IF 2 4区 经济学
Economics Letters Pub Date : 2026-09-01 Epub Date: 2026-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113196
Panit Wattanakoon
{"title":"Bank market power and fire-sale amplification under earnings-based constraints","authors":"Panit Wattanakoon","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113196","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113196","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of bank market power under corporate earnings-based borrowing constraints. By embedding a Cournot banking structure within a Kiyotaki-Moore framework, we uncover a sharp structural reversal: while credit market power dampens the fire-sale multiplier under traditional asset-backed constraints, it amplifies that multiplier under earnings covenants. The endogenous lending markup directly inflates debt-service obligations, tightening borrowers’ cash-flow constraints, forcing deeper asset misallocations and severe aggregate output contractions. Fostering banking competition and relaxing countercyclical covenants act as structural complements, compressing spreads and maximizing real capital retention during financial distress.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"268 ","pages":"Article 113196"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148854076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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